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LU9DCE > ALERT 13.01.23 14:01z 73 Lines 2755 Bytes #999 (0) @ WW
BID : 9677_LU9DCE
Read: GUEST
Subj: STORM PREDICTION CENTER 30-DEC22
Path: HB9ON<IW8PGT<IZ3LSV<I0OJJ<LU4ECL<LU9DCE
Sent: 221230/0631Z 9677@LU9DCE.TOR.BA.ARG.SOAM LinBPQ6.0.23
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ESTACION DE PACKET RADIO - BUENOS AIRES (GF05OM)
BOLETINES INFORMATIVOS PROGRAMADOS (BIP) PHP
Copyright 2022 - Eduardo A. Castillo
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SPC - No watches are valid as of Fri Dec 30 01:16:01 UTC 2022
No watches are valid as of Fri Dec 30 01:16:01 UTC 2022.
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SPC - No MDs are in effect as of Fri Dec 30 01:16:01 UTC 2022
No Mesoscale Discussions are in effect as of Fri Dec 30 01:16:01 UTC
2022.
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SPC Dec 30, 2022 0100 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook
SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0644 PM CST Thu Dec 29 2022
Valid 300100Z - 301200Z
...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM EAST TEXAS
INTO WESTERN/CENTRAL LOUISIANA AND SOUTHERN ARKANSAS...
...SUMMARY...
Isolated damaging gusts, marginally severe hail, and a tornado or
two remain possible tonight from east Texas into western/central
Louisiana and southern Arkansas.
...East TX...Western/central LA...Southern AR...
Numerous thunderstorms are ongoing this evening near a weak surface
boundary across east-central/northeast TX, and also within a
warm-advection regime from southeast TX into southern AR. 00Z
soundings from CRP and SHV and recent objective mesoanalyses depict
weak-to-moderate buoyancy across the region (MLCAPE 750-1500 J/kg)
and moderate deep-layer shear, but storms have struggled to organize
thus far, due in part to unidirectional wind profiles and a tendency
for storm mergers. Most storms will likely remain subsevere through
the evening, but given the somewhat favorable environment and some
potential increase in low-level flow/shear with time, a few stronger
cells/clusters remain possible, posing a threat for isolated
marginal hail, locally damaging wind, and perhaps a brief tornado.
Overnight, convection is eventually expected to evolve into a more
extensive north-south oriented QLCS, as storms move from east TX
into western/central LA. As this occurs, some threat for locally
damaging gusts and a brief tornado or two will spread eastward,
though a tendency for convection to become slightly elevated may
temper the severe risk to some extent.
..Dean.. 12/30/2022
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