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LU9DCE > ALERT 13.01.23 14:01z 264 Lines 9348 Bytes #999 (0) @ WW
BID : 9625_LU9DCE
Read: GUEST
Subj: STORM PREDICTION CENTER 29-DEC22
Path: HB9ON<IW0QNL<IZ3LSV<I0OJJ<EA2RCF<LU9DCE
Sent: 221229/1200Z 9625@LU9DCE.TOR.BA.ARG.SOAM LinBPQ6.0.23
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ESTACION DE PACKET RADIO - BUENOS AIRES (GF05OM)
BOLETINES INFORMATIVOS PROGRAMADOS (BIP) PHP
Copyright 2022 - Eduardo A. Castillo
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SPC - No watches are valid as of Thu Dec 29 08:33:01 UTC 2022
No watches are valid as of Thu Dec 29 08:33:01 UTC 2022.
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SPC - No MDs are in effect as of Thu Dec 29 08:33:02 UTC 2022
No Mesoscale Discussions are in effect as of Thu Dec 29 08:33:02 UTC
2022.
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SPC Dec 29, 2022 0600 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook
SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1125 PM CST Wed Dec 28 2022
Valid 291200Z - 301200Z
...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PARTS OF
EAST TEXAS...WESTERN LOUISIANA...SOUTHERN ARKANSAS...
...SUMMARY...
Isolated severe thunderstorms are possible this afternoon into
tonight from east Texas and western Louisiana northward into
southern and central Arkansas. Locally damaging wind, isolated hail,
and a brief tornado or two are all possible.
...Synopsis...
A mid/upper-level shortwave trough is forecast to move from the
southern High Plains this morning into parts of the Midwest/Great
Lakes by the end of the forecast period. A weakening cold front is
expected to move slowly eastward across parts of the
central/southern Plains, as a frontal wave moves from KS toward the
upper Midwest. Relatively rich low-level moisture will continue to
stream northward into the ArkLaTex region through the day, in
advance of the cold front.
...ArkLaTex and vicinity...
Showers and isolated thunderstorms will be possible this morning
from southeast TX into LA and southern AR, as low-level moisture
continues to deepen across the region. More substantial thunderstorm
development is possible by late afternoon into the evening across
parts of east TX, as modest diurnal heating/destabilization (with
MLCAPE potentially increasing to 1000+ J/kg) occurs in the vicinity
of the cold front. Moderate southwesterly midlevel flow along the
southern periphery of the departing midlevel shortwave trough will
support effective shear of 35-45 kt, sufficient for organized storm
structures.
Initial semi-discrete development could pose a hail risk within 1-2
hours of initiation, in addition to a threat of isolated damaging
wind. Generally unidirectional wind profiles will favor a quick
transition to more of a linear or QLCS mode as storms move from east
TX into parts of AR/LA tonight, with increasing low-level flow/shear
supporting a continued threat of isolated damaging gusts, and
perhaps a brief tornado or two. Convection may tend to weaken as it
moves into an increasingly stable environment across eastern AR and
northeast LA overnight, but storms may remain vigorous near or just
offshore of the Gulf Coast through the end of the forecast period.
..Dean/Grams.. 12/29/2022
Read more
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SPC Dec 29, 2022 0700 UTC Day 2 Convective Outlook
SPC 0700Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1251 AM CST Thu Dec 29 2022
Valid 301200Z - 311200Z
...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR SOUTHEAST
LOUISIANA AND THE IMMEDIATE COAST OF MISSISSIPPI AND ALABAMA...
...SUMMARY...
Isolated damaging gusts are possible on Friday along the central
Gulf Coast.
...Central Gulf Coast...
An eastward-translating mid-level trough will move from northern
Mexico/TX to the central Gulf Coast with flow strengthening as it
moves to the Gulf and into LA/MS late. Showers and a band of
thunderstorms will likely be ongoing Friday morning over
south-central LA extending southward into the shelf waters of the
Gulf. Although 0-2 km lapse rates will be modest, weak buoyancy
according to model forecast soundings (250-1000 J/kg MLCAPE) coupled
with a wind profile supporting organized storms, will support some
risk for isolated wind damage from the squall line.
Convection-allowing model guidance suggests this squall line will
move east during the day across southeast LA into coastal MS/AL
before weakening towards the FL Panhandle, as it moves east quicker
than the airmass can recover and become marginally unstable inland.
Scant buoyancy farther north near the I-20 corridor will limit the
threat for strong storms.
Late Friday night the mid-level trough will move into the LA/AR/MS,
with a zone of strengthening mid-level ascent overspreading northern
LA northeastward through the Delta region. Models indicate isolated
thunderstorms will develop in response to this forcing moving into
the area. Relatively cool mid-level temperatures may promote hail
growth with the stronger updrafts. Uncertainty remains regarding
this scenario, precluding low severe hail probabilities at this
time.
..Smith.. 12/29/2022
Read more
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SPC Dec 29, 2022 0830 UTC Day 3 Severe Thunderstorm Outlook
SPC 0830Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0230 AM CST Thu Dec 29 2022
Valid 311200Z - 011200Z
...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...
...SUMMARY...
Organized severe thunderstorms are not forecast on Saturday across
the contiguous United States.
...Synopsis...
A mid-level trough initially over the lower MO/lower MS Valleys will
quickly move east of the Mid-Atlantic coast by early Sunday morning.
The latest EC, UKMET, and Canadian models show an area of low
pressure over the OH Valley Saturday morning developing east to be
near the New England coast by daybreak Sunday. An attendant cold
front will push east across the Appalachians during the day and
through the Carolinas/Mid-Atlantic states Saturday night.
Showers and widely scattered thunderstorms will likely be ongoing
Saturday morning over the northern Gulf of Mexico into the central
Gulf Coast. Relatively weak lapse rates and considerable cloudiness
will likely limit heating/destabilization over the FL Panhandle
northward into AL/GA and into the Carolinas. Operational models
(NAM vs. GFS/EC/Canadian) vary largely on the quality of moisture
into GA and SC during the day, and when combined with the expected
weak lapse rates, this introduces considerable uncertainty on the
magnitude of destabilization. Yet, the forecast evolution of the
mid-level disturbance (i.e., intensification of the flow) will
conditionally support organized storm structures if sufficient
buoyancy is realized. Will defer the potential inclusion of low
severe probabilities to later forecast updates due to model
variability.
..Smith.. 12/29/2022
Read more
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SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1149 PM CST Wed Dec 28 2022
Valid 291200Z - 301200Z
...Synopsis...
A mid/upper-level shortwave trough is forecast to move from the
southern High Plains at the start of the period northeastward toward
the Great Lakes region by early Friday morning. In conjunction with
this shortwave trough, a surface cyclone is forecast to move from
Kansas toward the upper Midwest, as a weakening cold front moves
through portions of the southern Plains.
...Northeast NM into the TX Panhandle/South Plains...
Seasonably warm overnight temperatures and a residual belt of
stronger westerly low-level flow will support the relatively quick
development of elevated fire-weather conditions by late morning
across northeast NM into the TX Panhandle and parts of the South
Plains. Sustained winds of 15-25 mph are expected through early
afternoon, as RH values drop into the 20-25% range. Winds are
expected to weaken by mid/late afternoon, but may remain sufficient
to support elevated conditions through most of the day, with RH
potentially falling below 20% for a few hours across parts of the
region.
..Dean.. 12/29/2022
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...
Read more
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SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1149 PM CST Wed Dec 28 2022
Valid 301200Z - 311200Z
...NO CRITICAL AREAS...
...Synopsis...
The latest in a series of mid/upper-level shortwave troughs is
forecast to move across the southern Great Plains on Friday. As this
occurs, a weak surface low is forecast to develop across the
southern High Plains.
Relatively dry and breezy conditions will be possible across parts
of eastern NM into west TX on Friday afternoon in response to the
developing lee trough/surface low, but with low-level flow generally
expected to be weaker and have somewhat less of a downslope
component compared to previous days, the potential for more than
localized elevated conditions appears limited at this time.
..Dean.. 12/29/2022
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...
Read more
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