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LU9DCE > ALERT 13.01.23 14:01z 81 Lines 3152 Bytes #999 (0) @ WW
BID : 2404_LU9DCE
Read: GUEST
Subj: STORM PREDICTION CENTER 13-JAN23
Path: HB9ON<IW8PGT<IZ3LSV<I0OJJ<LU4ECL<LU9DCE
Sent: 230113/0831Z 2404@LU9DCE.TOR.BA.ARG.SOAM LinBPQ6.0.23
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ESTACION DE PACKET RADIO - BUENOS AIRES (GF05OM)
BOLETINES INFORMATIVOS PROGRAMADOS (BIP) PHP
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SPC - No watches are valid as of Fri Jan 13 03:02:01 UTC 2023
No watches are valid as of Fri Jan 13 03:02:01 UTC 2023.
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SPC - No MDs are in effect as of Fri Jan 13 03:02:01 UTC 2023
No Mesoscale Discussions are in effect as of Fri Jan 13 03:02:01 UTC
2023.
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SPC Jan 13, 2023 0100 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook
SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0641 PM CST Thu Jan 12 2023
Valid 130100Z - 131200Z
...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS EVENING
ACROSS PARTS OF SOUTHERN/EASTERN GEORGIA INTO THE CAROLINA
PIEDMONT....
...SUMMARY...
Strong thunderstorms may form late this evening into the overnight
hours near the North Carolina Outer Banks vicinity, and pose at
least some risk for producing damaging wind gusts and a tornado or
two. Otherwise, lingering thunderstorms farther west may continue
to pose a risk for, mainly, locally damaging wind gusts this
evening, but the severe weather potential is generally diminishing.
...01Z Update...
Pre-frontal convection extending from the Virginia/Carolina Piedmont
into the Florida Panhandle is preceded by a lingering warm but dry
low-level environment, in a corridor roughly extending from the west
central Florida Peninsula through the Georgia/Carolina coastal
plain. Although model forecast soundings suggest this could modify
some, mainly with moisture advection initially near or just below
the 850 mb level, destabilization appears unlikely to support a
substantive increase in convective intensities, which have been
generally weakening. As the ongoing line of storms spreads
eastward, the thermodynamic profiles will become less conducive to
the risk for tornadoes, but downward momentum transfer near
convection could continue to support potential for locally damaging
wind gusts into mid/late evening.
As a short wave impulse, within consolidating larger-scale mid-level
troughing, pivots northeastward toward the southern Mid Atlantic
coast, it does appear that associated forcing for ascent may
contribute to new, intensifying thunderstorm development within a
narrow plume of low-level moistening offshore of the south Atlantic
coast into the North Carolina Outer Banks vicinity. This will
coincide with strengthening lower/mid tropospheric flow, with
vertical shear becoming supportive of organized convection including
supercells.
..Kerr.. 01/13/2023
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