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LU9DCE > ALERT 03.05.19 07:03z 245 Lines 12785 Bytes #999 (0) @ WW
BID : 23346_LU9DCE
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Subj: Storm Prediction Center 03 05
Path: HB9ON<IW2OHX<IR2UBX<DB0RES<DB0ERF<OK0NAG<OK0NBR<OK2PEN<N3HYM<LU9DCE
Sent: 190503/0700Z 23346@LU9DCE.TOR.BA.ARG.SOAM LinBPQ6.0.18
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ESTACION DE PACKET RADIO - BUENOS AIRES (GF05OM)
BOLETINES INFORMATIVOS PROGRAMADOS (BIP)
28.125 USB @ 300 BAUD --- HELLOCODELINUX@GMAIL.COM
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WW 123 SEVERE TSTM TX 022355Z - 030700Z
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED Severe Thunderstorm Watch
Number 123 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 655 PM CDT Thu
May 2 2019
The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a
* Severe Thunderstorm Watch for portions of Southern and western
Texas
* Effective this Thursday night and Friday morning from 655 PM
until 200 AM CDT.
* Primary threats include... Scattered large hail and isolated
very large hail events to 2.5 inches in diameter possible Isolated
damaging wind gusts to 65 mph possible A tornado or two possible
SUMMARY...Scattered thunderstorms will persist across parts of the
Lower Pecos Valley and Edwards Plateau near the Rio Grande through
early tonight. Large hail is the primary hazard with slow-moving
supercells and clusters.
The severe thunderstorm watch area is approximately along and 55
statute miles either side of a line from 65 miles west northwest of
Dryden TX to 35 miles south of Hondo TX. For a complete depiction of
the watch see the associated watch outline update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU3).
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
REMEMBER...A Severe Thunderstorm Watch means conditions are
favorable for severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area.
Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening
weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible
warnings. Severe thunderstorms can and occasionally do produce
tornadoes.
OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...This severe thunderstorm watch replaces
severe thunderstorm watch number 120. Watch number 120 will not be
in effect after 655 PM CDT. CONTINUE...WW 121...WW 122...
AVIATION...A few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft
to 2.5 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 55
knots. A few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 500. Mean storm motion
vector 32015.
...Grams
WW 0123 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 123
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 65 WSW DRT TO
40 NW DRT TO 45 W HDO TO 10 NW COT.
..SMITH..05/03/19
ATTN...WFO...MAF...SJT...EWX...
STATUS REPORT FOR WS 123
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
TXC127-271-323-463-465-507-030620-
TX . TEXAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
DIMMIT KINNEY MAVERICK UVALDE
VAL VERDE ZAVALA
THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE REFER
TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL INFORMATION ON
COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES CLEARED FROM SEVERE
THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES.
WW 0122 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 122
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 W HOP TO
25 S PAH TO 25 NNW PAH.
WW 122 WILL BE ALLOWED TO EXPIRE AT 030300Z.
FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0509
..BENTLEY..05/03/19
ATTN...WFO...MEG...PAH...
STATUS REPORT FOR WT 122
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
KYC083-145-157-030300-
KY . KENTUCKY COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
GRAVES MCCRACKEN MARSHALL
THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE REFER
TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL INFORMATION ON
COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES CLEARED FROM SEVERE
THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES.
SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1255
AM CDT Fri May 03 2019
Valid 031200Z - 041200Z
...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS
OF SOUTHERN TEXAS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...
...SUMMARY... Scattered severe storms, capable mainly of large
hail and damaging gusts, are expected Friday across parts of
southern Texas. A few strong/isolated severe storms are also
possible across the central Appalachians vicinity. Additional
widespread storms from central Oklahoma into western Arkansas,
southward across much of Texas and far southeast New Mexico could
produce gusty winds and marginal hail.
...Synopsis...
A messy forecast/pattern will continue today across much of the
Southern Plains vicinity. The southern branch of the larger-scale
central U.S./Mexico upper trough will finally eject eastward
from northern Mexico across southern TX through this evening,
eventually migrating to the lower MS Valley area by 12z Saturday.
A surface cold front will drop southward across the central and
southern Plains during the afternoon and nighttime hours, with other
myriad outflow boundaries across parts of southern and eastern
TX associated with ongoing convection early this morning. This
will result in multiple areas to focus convection across a still
moist and unstable airmass beneath steep midlevel lapse rates.
The relative greatest severe threat will likely remain across parts
of southern TX, but uncertainty remains high in the exact location
and evolution of most intense convection.
Further east, the remnants of an MCV located across the lower OH
Valley as of 0530z will continue to track northeast toward the
central Appalachians and northwestern Chesapeake vicinity. Widely
scattered thunderstorms are expected to develop ahead of this feature
in an airmass characterized by upper 50s to mid 60s F dewpoints
beneath modest midlevel lapse rates, resulting in MLCAPE around
500-1500 J/kg, and effective shear around 35 kt. As a result,
a few strong storms are possible from eastern KY into southern PA
and northern MD during the afternoon and early evening.
...South-Central to Southern TX...
The Slight risk area across portions of central/southern TX
encompasses the current expectation for where west-east oriented
outflows from both prior days and early morning convection will
reside by this afternoon. A very moist airmass with dewpoints in
the mid 60s to low 70s F remain relatively intact across this area
and midlevel lapse rates will remain quite steep as temperatures
cool aloft with the approach with the upper trough. As a result,
SBCAPE greater than 2000 J/kg will be common. Storms are expected
to develop along the outflow boundary and may try to remain
semi-discrete initially. While large hail and damaging wind gusts
will be the main concern, a few tornadoes will be possible as well,
especially with discrete storms interacting with surface boundaries,
which will serve to enhance low level SRH in otherwise modest 0-3
km flow. Convective evolution into the evening and overnight hours
is uncertain, but most CAMs develop a southeast or eastward surging
bow tracking across southern TX or even toward the lower MS Valley.
If storms organize further north and track toward the lower MS
Valley, probabilities may need adjusted in future outlooks, but
this scenario appears too conditional/uncertain at this time to
extend the Marginal risk any further eastward.
...Portions of the Southern High Plains into OK and Western AR...
Easterly low level flow ahead of the southward-progressing cold
front will maintain a moist boundary layer across the region.
Thunderstorms are expected to develop as modest destabilization
occurs with upslope flow along a surface trough across western
TX and far southeast NM as well as along the cold front further
northeast across central OK to northwest AR. Midlevel lapse rates
around 7-7.5 C/km and effective shear around 35 kt will support a
marginal risk for isolated severe hail and locally damaging gusts
into this evening.
...Eastern KY to Southern PA/Northern MD...
The remnant MCV tracking northeast across the area will provide
forcing for ascent as generally weak stabilization occurs during the
afternoon. Stronger deep-layer shear will remain north of the area,
but adequate for widely scattered, briefly organized storm clusters.
Well-mixed sub-cloud layers are indicated by forecast soundings, and
will support a Marginal risk for isolated damaging gusts into this
evening. While midlevel lapse rates are expected to remain modest
(6.5-7.0 C/km), a few storms could produce marginally severe hail,
especially where deep-layer shear is maximized in the vicinity of
the MCV.
..Leitman.. 05/03/2019
SPC 0600Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1225
AM CDT Fri May 03 2019
Valid 041200Z - 051200Z
...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE
SOUTHEAST AND HIGH PLAINS...
...SUMMARY... Scattered strong storms, some severe, are expected
from the central Gulf coast to the southern Appalachians. Isolated
severe thunderstorms should develop across the central and southern
High Plains.
...Southeastern US...
Latest water-vapor imagery suggests a significant short-wave trough
is located near the Baja Peninsula, moving east-northeast in line
with 03/00z model guidance. This feature is expected to eject
across the lower MS Valley late day1 with a 500mb speed max into
eastern MS by the start of the day2 period. This feature should
induce a surface wave along the TX Coast Friday and a weak surface
low ultimately may evolve along the boundary then eject into the
northern Gulf States by afternoon. Extensive convection should be
noted ahead of the short wave within favored zone of low-level warm
advection. Some of this early-day convection may be strong, perhaps
severe, with gusty winds and marginally severe hail. However, more
robust convection should evolve ahead of the mid-level speed max
as some boundary-layer heating across the warm sector should aid
buoyancy within a favorably sheared environment for organized line
segments and perhaps a few supercells. Current thinking is damaging
winds will be the primary risk, though hail could accompany more
discrete supercells. Severe threat should advance across the central
Gulf States into the western Carolinas during the afternoon hours.
...High Plains...
Short-wave ridging is expected to shift across the southwestern
US region Saturday. Even so, short-range guidance suggest a weak
disturbance will translate into CO/NM after 18z. In response, lee
trough convergence is expected to aid in the development of isolated
supercells as surface temperatures warm through the 60s to near 70F.
With surface-3km lapse rates forecast to approach 9 C/km, minimal
inhibition should not suppress thunderstorm initiation, especially
given the approaching short wave. As a result, isolated supercells
are expected to develop across eastern CO/NM then drift southeast
toward the TX Panhandle during the evening as LLJ strengthens. Hail
is the primary risk.
...MAXIMUM RISK BY HAZARD... Tornado: 5% - Slight Wind:
15% - Slight Hail: 15% - Slight
..Darrow.. 05/03/2019
SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0101 AM CDT Fri May 03 2019
Valid 031200Z - 041200Z
...NO CRITICAL AREAS...
...Synopsis... A longwave mid-level trough will shift from
the central Plains to the Midwest on Friday. This will continue
wet conditions for much of the eastern CONUS while little if any
precipitation is expected in the western CONUS. Surface conditions
will be dry across much of the Southwest on Friday with minimum
relative humidity dropping below 10 percent across a large portion
of the area. Winds are expected to remain light (mostly less than
15 mph) which should alleviate the potential for large fire spread
on Friday.
..Bentley.. 05/03/2019
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...
SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0102 AM CDT Fri May 03 2019
Valid 041200Z - 051200Z
...NO CRITICAL AREAS...
...Synopsis... Weak mid-level shortwave ridging is expected
across the Southwest with a longwave trough centered across the
eastern CONUS. This longwave trough and the thunderstorm activity
associated with it will continue to lead to wet conditions in
much of the eastern CONUS. Dry conditions are expected at the
surface beneath the shortwave ridging, but winds are expected to
be light. Therefore, the threat for large fire spread is expected
to be low across the CONUS on Saturday.
..Bentley.. 05/03/2019
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...
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"You've got to have a gimmick if your band sucks."
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