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LU9DCE > ALERT 13.01.23 14:01z 588 Lines 16321 Bytes #999 (0) @ WW
BID : 9944_LU9DCE
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Subj: STORM PREDICTION CENTER 03-JAN23
Path: HB9ON<IW8PGT<IZ3LSV<I0OJJ<LU4ECL<LU9DCE
Sent: 230103/0630Z 9944@LU9DCE.TOR.BA.ARG.SOAM LinBPQ6.0.23
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ESTACION DE PACKET RADIO - BUENOS AIRES (GF05OM)
BOLETINES INFORMATIVOS PROGRAMADOS (BIP) PHP
Copyright 2022 - Eduardo A. Castillo
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SPC Tornado Watch 4
WW 4 TORNADO AR LA TX 030300Z - 030900Z
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
Tornado Watch Number 4
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
900 PM CST Mon Jan 2 2023
The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a
* Tornado Watch for portions of
Southern Arkansas
North central and northwest Louisiana
Extreme east Texas
* Effective this Monday night and Tuesday morning from 900 PM
until 300 AM CST.
* Primary threats include...
A few tornadoes and a couple intense tornadoes possible
Scattered damaging wind gusts to 70 mph likely
Isolated large hail events to 1 inch in diameter possible
SUMMARY...Clusters and bands of storms with embedded supercell
structures will likely persist well into the early morning hours,
with an attendant threat for tornadoes (one or two of which could be
strong), damaging gusts, and isolated large hail.
The tornado watch area is approximately along and 45 statute miles
east and west of a line from 40 miles west of Pine Bluff AR to 25
miles west southwest of Natchitoches LA. For a complete depiction of
the watch see the associated watch outline update (WOUS64 KWNS
WOU4).
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
REMEMBER...A Tornado Watch means conditions are favorable for
tornadoes and severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch
area. Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for
threatening weather conditions and listen for later statements
and possible warnings.
&&
OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...This tornado watch replaces tornado
watch number 1. Watch number 1 will not be in effect after 900 PM
CST. CONTINUE...WW 2...WW 3...
AVIATION...Tornadoes and a few severe thunderstorms with hail
surface and aloft to 1 inch. Extreme turbulence and surface wind
gusts to 60 knots. A few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 500. Mean
storm motion vector 22040.
...Thompson
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SPC Tornado Watch 3
WW 3 TORNADO AR LA MS 030025Z - 030900Z
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
Tornado Watch Number 3
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
625 PM CST Mon Jan 2 2023
The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a
* Tornado Watch for portions of
Southeast Arkansas
Northeast Louisiana
A small part of west central Mississippi
* Effective this Monday night and Tuesday morning from 625 PM
until 300 AM CST.
* Primary threats include...
A few tornadoes and a couple intense tornadoes possible
Scattered damaging wind gusts to 70 mph possible
Isolated large hail events to 1 inch in diameter possible
SUMMARY...Clusters of storms with embedded supercell/bow structures
will likely persist while spreading northeastward within the warm
sector through much of the overnight hours. A strong tornado or two
will be possible with the most intense storms, along with damaging
gusts and isolated large hail near 1 inch diameter. Additional
storms could spread into this watch area from the west during the
early morning hours.
The tornado watch area is approximately along and 35 statute miles
east and west of a line from 45 miles north northwest of Greenville
MS to 25 miles southeast of Monroe LA. For a complete depiction of
the watch see the associated watch outline update (WOUS64 KWNS
WOU3).
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
REMEMBER...A Tornado Watch means conditions are favorable for
tornadoes and severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch
area. Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for
threatening weather conditions and listen for later statements
and possible warnings.
&&
OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 1...WW 2...
AVIATION...Tornadoes and a few severe thunderstorms with hail
surface and aloft to 1 inch. Extreme turbulence and surface wind
gusts to 60 knots. A few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 500. Mean
storm motion vector 21040.
...Thompson
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SPC Tornado Watch 2
WW 2 TORNADO AR KS OK 022135Z - 030400Z
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
Tornado Watch Number 2
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
335 PM CST Mon Jan 2 2023
The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a
* Tornado Watch for portions of
Northwest Arkansas
Southeast Kansas
Eastern Oklahoma
* Effective this Monday afternoon and evening from 335 PM until
1000 PM CST.
* Primary threats include...
A few tornadoes likely with a couple intense tornadoes possible
Scattered damaging winds likely with isolated significant gusts
to 75 mph possible
Scattered large hail likely with isolated very large hail events
to 2 inches in diameter possible
SUMMARY...Thunderstorms will intensify rapidly this afternoon over
eastern Oklahoma and southeast Kansas. These storms will pose a
risk of large hail, damaging winds, and a few tornadoes. Activity
will spread eastward into western Arkansas this evening.
The tornado watch area is approximately along and 70 statute miles
east and west of a line from 30 miles north northwest of Chanute KS
to 65 miles south southeast of Mcalester OK. For a complete
depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline update
(WOUS64 KWNS WOU2).
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
REMEMBER...A Tornado Watch means conditions are favorable for
tornadoes and severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch
area. Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for
threatening weather conditions and listen for later statements
and possible warnings.
&&
OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 1...
AVIATION...Tornadoes and a few severe thunderstorms with hail
surface and aloft to 2 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind
gusts to 65 knots. A few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 500. Mean
storm motion vector 23035.
...Hart
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SPC Tornado Watch 4 Status Reports
WW 0004 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 4
THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS THE ENTIRE WATCH AREA.
..DEAN..01/03/23
ATTN...WFO...LZK...SHV...
STATUS REPORT FOR WT 4
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
ARC013-019-025-027-039-053-057-059-061-069-073-081-091-099-103-
109-133-139-030440-
AR
. ARKANSAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
CALHOUN CLARK CLEVELAND
COLUMBIA DALLAS GRANT
HEMPSTEAD HOT SPRING HOWARD
JEFFERSON LAFAYETTE LITTLE RIVER
MILLER NEVADA OUACHITA
PIKE SEVIER UNION
LAC013-015-017-027-031-049-061-069-073-081-085-111-119-127-
030440-
LA
. LOUISIANA PARISHES INCLUDED ARE
BIENVILLE BOSSIER CADDO
CLAIBORNE DE SOTO JACKSON
LINCOLN NATCHITOCHES OUACHITA
RED RIVER SABINE UNION
WEBSTER WINN
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SPC Tornado Watch 3 Status Reports
WW 0003 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 4
THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS THE ENTIRE WATCH AREA.
..DEAN..01/03/23
ATTN...WFO...LZK...SHV...
STATUS REPORT FOR WT 4
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
ARC013-019-025-027-039-053-057-059-061-069-073-081-091-099-103-
109-133-139-030440-
AR
. ARKANSAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
CALHOUN CLARK CLEVELAND
COLUMBIA DALLAS GRANT
HEMPSTEAD HOT SPRING HOWARD
JEFFERSON LAFAYETTE LITTLE RIVER
MILLER NEVADA OUACHITA
PIKE SEVIER UNION
LAC013-015-017-027-031-049-061-069-073-081-085-111-119-127-
030440-
LA
. LOUISIANA PARISHES INCLUDED ARE
BIENVILLE BOSSIER CADDO
CLAIBORNE DE SOTO JACKSON
LINCOLN NATCHITOCHES OUACHITA
RED RIVER SABINE UNION
WEBSTER WINN
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SPC Tornado Watch 2 Status Reports
WW 0002 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 2
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 15 NNW PRX
TO 25 N MLC TO 10 WSW GMJ TO 10 WNW UMN.
..WENDT..01/03/23
ATTN...WFO...TSA...ICT...SGF...OUN...
STATUS REPORT FOR WT 2
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
ARC007-015-033-047-087-131-143-030340-
AR
. ARKANSAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
BENTON CARROLL CRAWFORD
FRANKLIN MADISON SEBASTIAN
WASHINGTON
OKC001-021-023-041-061-077-079-091-101-121-127-135-030340-
OK
. OKLAHOMA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
ADAIR CHEROKEE CHOCTAW
DELAWARE HASKELL LATIMER
LE FLORE MCINTOSH MUSKOGEE
PITTSBURG PUSHMATAHA SEQUOYAH
THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE
REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL
INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES
CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES.
Read more
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SPC Tornado Watch 1 Status Reports
WW 0001 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 1
THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS THE ENTIRE WATCH AREA.
FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0012
..DEAN..01/03/23
ATTN...WFO...LZK...SHV...
STATUS REPORT FOR WT 1
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
ARC013-019-023-025-027-029-039-045-051-053-057-059-061-063-065-
067-069-071-073-075-081-083-085-091-097-099-101-103-105-109-113-
115-117-119-125-127-129-133-135-137-139-141-145-147-149-
030240-
AR
. ARKANSAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
CALHOUN CLARK CLEBURNE
CLEVELAND COLUMBIA CONWAY
DALLAS FAULKNER GARLAND
GRANT HEMPSTEAD HOT SPRING
HOWARD INDEPENDENCE IZARD
JACKSON JEFFERSON JOHNSON
LAFAYETTE LAWRENCE LITTLE RIVER
LOGAN LONOKE MILLER
MONTGOMERY NEVADA NEWTON
OUACHITA PERRY PIKE
POLK POPE PRAIRIE
PULASKI SALINE SCOTT
SEARCY SEVIER SHARP
STONE UNION VAN BUREN
WHITE WOODRUFF YELL
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SPC MD 14
MD 0014 CONCERNING TORNADO WATCH 1...3... FOR NORTHERN LA...SOUTHEAST
AR...NORTHWEST MS...EXTREME SOUTHWEST TN
Mesoscale Discussion 0014
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0831 PM CST Mon Jan 02 2023
Areas affected...Northern LA...Southeast AR...Northwest MS...Extreme
southwest TN
Concerning...Tornado Watch 1...3...
Valid 030231Z - 030400Z
The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 1, 3 continues.
SUMMARY...The threat for damaging wind and a a couple of tornadoes
will continue into the late evening, and potentially spread east of
WW 3. A new watch may be issued to replace part of WW 1 prior to
03Z.
DISCUSSION...At 0230Z, a long-lived embedded supercell is moving
northeastward across southeast AR toward the MS river and northwest
MS, while a pair of small bowing segments are moving across
northeast LA. The KNQA VWP continues to indicate a favorable wind
profile for organized convection, with strong low-level shear/SRH.
The thermodynamic environment is being adversely affected by
widespread convection and precipitation, but seasonably rich
low-level moisture is supporting MLCAPE of 500-1000 J/kg, sufficient
for maintenance of ongoing convection and a continued threat of
locally damaging wind and a tornado or two.
Farther west, organized convection has redeveloped from far east TX
into northwest LA, with strong low-level and deep-layer shear still
noted in the KSHV VWP. One or more bowing segments and/or embedded
supercells may evolve out of this developing storm cluster, which
would pose a threat of locally damaging wind and a couple of
tornadoes into the late evening and potentially the overnight hours.
With some severe threat expected to continue into late tonight,
portions of WW 1 will likely be replaced with a new watch prior to
the 03Z expiration time. Also, new watch issuance is possible to the
east of WW 3, if short-term trends support a severe threat into
northwest MS with ongoing convection.
..Dean/Thompson.. 01/03/2023
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...
ATTN...WFO...MEG...JAN...LZK...SHV...
LAT...LON 31579138 31749257 32549353 34079173 35479016 35338928
31579138
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SPC MD 11
MD 0011 CONCERNING HEAVY SNOW FOR PORTIONS OF WESTERN NEBRASKA...FAR
NORTHERN COLORADO AND SOUTHERN SOUTH DAKOTA.
Mesoscale Discussion 0011
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0559 PM CST Mon Jan 02 2023
Areas affected...portions of western Nebraska...far northern
Colorado and southern South Dakota.
Concerning...Heavy snow
Valid 022359Z - 030600Z
SUMMARY...Heavy snow should gradually develop this evening with
rates greater than 1 inch per hour likely.
DISCUSSION...As of 2340 UTC, regional observations showed a large
negatively tilted upper trough and associated surface cyclone
deepening across the central Rockies. To the east of the trough and
low a broad area of stratiform precipitation was ongoing across
portions of the high Plains. Over the last couple of hours, light
upslope precipitation has increased in coverage and transitioned
from freezing drizzle to snow. Likely a response to cooling of the
column and deepening dynamic lift from the ejecting trough, as
forcing continues to intensify and spread eastward, widespread heavy
snow is expected to develop across the northeastern corner of CO
into the NE panhandle and eventually southern SD. Area RAP soundings
show a deep and saturated dendritic growth layer favorable for heavy
snow rates greater than 1 in/hr. Some banding and weak convective
elements may also support heavier snow rates into this evening.
Hi-res guidance suggests the heaviest snow should develop after 01z
across far northeast CO before shifting toward western/central NE
later this evening.
..Lyons.. 01/02/2023
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...
ATTN...WFO...FSD...LBF...UNR...GLD...BOU...CYS...
LAT...LON 40860372 40100344 40090292 40690197 41110127 41650018
41939969 42289922 42789914 43079953 43310012 43360124
43240215 42770290 41910351 41320374 40860372
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SPC Jan 3, 2023 0100 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook
SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0646 PM CST Mon Jan 02 2023
Valid 030100Z - 031200Z
...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM PARTS OF
EAST TEXAS/OKLAHOMA INTO ARKANSAS/NORTHERN LOUISIANA AND THE
MID-SOUTH...
...SUMMARY...
All severe thunderstorm hazards remain possible tonight over eastern
Oklahoma and the Arklatex region into southeastern Kansas, the
Ozarks, and parts of the Mid-South. Tornadoes (some strong) and
damaging gusts will be the greatest threats, but some large hail may
also occur.
...01z Update...
Early-evening water-vapor imagery depicts a strong,
negatively-tilted short-wave trough over the central High Plains,
ejecting northeast in line with latest model guidance. Associated
surface low is expected to progress across northwest OK into eastern
KS later this evening, which will allow a pronounced warm front to
advance north across the mid MS Valley.
Numerous showers/thunderstorms, some severe, extend from southeast
TX across northern LA into the Ozarks, including much of eastern
OK/southeast KS. This activity is coincident with a strong LLJ that
should increase in intensity overnight as it translates toward the
lower OH Valley, in response to the central Plains short wave. 00z
soundings across this region display strong shear but the most
buoyant profiles are sampled across the Plains along the western
edge of the expansive convective shield. OUN/FWD both exhibit steep
mid-level lapse rates with modest surface-based buoyancy. Several
long-lived supercells have been noted this evening, especially
across northern LA where at least one tornado has been observed.
Strongest mid-level height falls are expected to spread across the
central Plains into the mid MS Valley and this should encourage
long-lived updrafts at higher latitudes where the warm sector has
recovered (southeast KS/northeast OK). Overall, earlier thoughts
regarding the evolution of severe continue. The only major changes
to this outlook are to reduce severe probabilities where winds have
veered along the I-35 corridor and to nudge higher severe
probabilities into west-central MS.
..Darrow.. 01/03/2023
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