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LU9DCE > ALERT 13.01.23 14:01z 129 Lines 4934 Bytes #999 (0) @ WW
BID : 1995_LU9DCE
Read: GUEST
Subj: STORM PREDICTION CENTER 08-JAN23
Path: HB9ON<IW8PGT<IZ3LSV<I0OJJ<GB7CIP<VE3KPG<VA3TOK<LU9DCE
Sent: 230108/0630Z 1995@LU9DCE.TOR.BA.ARG.SOAM LinBPQ6.0.23
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ESTACION DE PACKET RADIO - BUENOS AIRES (GF05OM)
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SPC - No watches are valid as of Sun Jan 8 03:46:01 UTC 2023
No watches are valid as of Sun Jan 8 03:46:01 UTC 2023.
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SPC MD 39
MD 0039 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY FOR
SOUTH-CENTRAL/SOUTHEAST TEXAS INTO EXTREME WEST-CENTRAL LOUISIANA
Mesoscale Discussion 0039
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0944 PM CST Sat Jan 07 2023
Areas affected...South-central/Southeast Texas into extreme
west-central Louisiana
Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely
Valid 080344Z - 080545Z
Probability of Watch Issuance...5 percent
SUMMARY...Thunderstorms will sag southeast into the late evening
hours. Marginally severe hail and gusty winds are the greatest
risks.
DISCUSSION...Surface front is sagging southeast across the coastal
Plain of TX and northwest LA. Scattered convection has developed
near the frontal zone and has gradually expanded in areal coverage
from southeast of SAT-Conroe-Natchitoches. Buoyancy is not
particularly strong across this region but more than adequate for
robust updrafts. Two short-wave troughs appear to be influencing the
surface boundary/convection. The more northerly short wave over
western MO is suppressing the height field into northern AR. In
response, 850mb flow is somewhat stronger immediately downstream
with 25-35kt flow extending across northern MS into middle TN.
Lower-latitude short wave is approaching the Trans Pecos in west TX
and heights should flatten across the coastal Plain of TX later
tonight. Even so, low-level flow should remain weak along the
frontal corridor where instability is greatest. Despite the weak
low-level flow/warm advection, a few robust updrafts have evolved
within the elongated corridor of convection. Several MRMS MESH
signatures suggest hail could approach 1 inch with the strongest
updrafts. Gusty winds may also be noted with these stronger cores.
While a considerable number of thunderstorms will persist along the
frontal zone into the late evening, current thinking is the
magnitude of hail/wind should remain a bit too low to warrant more
than an isolated severe storm or two.
..Darrow/Grams.. 01/08/2023
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...
ATTN...WFO...LCH...SHV...HGX...CRP...EWX...
LAT...LON 29149797 30089647 31569373 30969341 28899703 29149797
Read more
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SPC Jan 8, 2023 0100 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook
SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0634 PM CST Sat Jan 07 2023
Valid 080100Z - 081200Z
...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF
SOUTH-CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST TX...
...SUMMARY...
Isolated hail and locally gusty thunderstorm winds are possible
tonight across parts of south-central and southeast Texas.
...South-central/southeast TX...
Thunderstorms are expected to gradually increase in coverage and
intensity through the evening, as a cold front sags southward across
south-central into southeast TX tonight. Seasonably rich low-level
moisture and relatively steep midlevel lapse rates (as noted in the
00Z DRT sounding) are supporting moderate buoyancy, with objective
mesoanalyses and the 00Z CRP sounding depicting MLCAPE of greater
than 1000 J/kg near and south of the front, with MUCAPE of 500-1000
J/kg analyzed on the immediate cool side of the boundary. Deep-layer
shear is rather weak early this evening, but will increase somewhat
with time as midlevel flow strengthens in response to a
mid/upper-level shortwave trough approaching the region from
northern Mexico. A few modestly organized storms will be possible
later this evening into the overnight hours, with a threat of
isolated severe hail and perhaps locally strong gusts.
...Central/northern CA...
Low-topped convection is expected to increase later tonight across
parts of central/northern CA, as a strong mid/upper-level shortwave
trough approaches the region from the eastern Pacific. Cooling
temperatures aloft and steepening midlevel lapse rates will support
an increase in thunderstorm potential overnight, with the strongest
storms potentially capable of producing small hail and gusty winds,
especially near the central/northern CA coast.
..Dean.. 01/08/2023
Read more
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