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LU9DCE > ALERT 08.02.23 09:31z 115 Lines 3814 Bytes #999 (0) @ WW
BID : 3011_LU9DCE
Read: GUEST
Subj: STORM PREDICTION CENTER 21-JAN23
Path: HB9ON<IW8PGT<IZ3LSV<I0OJJ<EA2RCF<LU9DCE
Sent: 230121/0831Z 3011@LU9DCE.TOR.BA.ARG.SOAM LinBPQ6.0.23
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ESTACION DE PACKET RADIO - BUENOS AIRES (GF05OM)
BOLETINES INFORMATIVOS PROGRAMADOS (BIP) PHP
Copyright 2022 - Eduardo A. Castillo
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SPC - No watches are valid as of Sat Jan 21 03:52:02 UTC 2023
No watches are valid as of Sat Jan 21 03:52:02 UTC 2023.
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SPC MD 82
MD 0082 CONCERNING HEAVY SNOW FOR EAST/SOUTHEAST COLORADO TO WESTERN
KANSAS
Mesoscale Discussion 0082
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0949 PM CST Fri Jan 20 2023
Areas affected...East/southeast Colorado to western Kansas
Concerning...Heavy snow
Valid 210349Z - 210745Z
SUMMARY...Organized snow banding is becoming apparent across parts
of east/southeast Colorado and will likely persist well into the
overnight hours into western Kansas. Periods of heavy snowfall
appears likely under the band with snowfall rates near 1 inch/hour
likely.
DISCUSSION...An organized snow band is becoming apparent in regional
radar mosaics from the Pueblo, CO area to the I-70 corridor in
eastern CO. Locations that have seen full low-level moistening have
begun to periodically report moderate to heavy snow with reduced
visibility down to 0.5 mile at times. These trends are supported by
regional web cams that also show reduced visibility due to heavy
snowfall under the developing snow band. This organized band is
largely being driven by a combination of deformation near 700 mb and
strong isentropic ascent and frontogenesis at 850 mb over southeast
CO. These sources of focused mesoscale ascent are expected to
persist well into the overnight hours and translate east in tandem
with the associated upper low (currently over north-central NM).
Consequently, the potential for organized snow banding will
continue.
Forecast soundings suggest much of the ascent will remain just under
a 50-100 mb thick dendritic growth zone near 600 mb, which may limit
the potential for persistent heavy snow rates to some degree.
However, snowfall rates within any organized bands may be bolstered
by convective elements given weak (25-75 J/kg) MUCAPE rooted in the
550-600 mb layer. This will likely result in periods of heavy
snowfall rates near 1 inch/hour.
..Moore.. 01/21/2023
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...
ATTN...WFO...DDC...GLD...PUB...BOU...ABQ...
LAT...LON 37210445 37710458 38520447 39090341 39480241 39380120
38870050 38470027 38020045 37690181 37080299 36980342
37030407 37210445
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SPC Jan 21, 2023 0100 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook
SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0639 PM CST Fri Jan 20 2023
Valid 210100Z - 211200Z
...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...
...SUMMARY...
Organized severe thunderstorms remain unlikely through tonight.
...01z Update...
Well-defined upper low is shifting east across the southern Rockies
this evening. This feature will induce a LLJ over the High Plains
later tonight, and this may contribute to a few flashes of lightning
within weak convection that spreads into this region within a very
steep lapse-rate environment.
Otherwise, weak low-level warm advection will be the primary
instigator for weak elevated convection near the Gulf Coast tonight.
..Darrow.. 01/21/2023
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