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LU9DCE > ALERT 08.02.23 09:31z 105 Lines 3531 Bytes #999 (0) @ WW
BID : 3193_LU9DCE
Read: GUEST
Subj: STORM PREDICTION CENTER 24-JAN23
Path: HB9ON<IW8PGT<IZ3LSV<I0OJJ<GB7CIP<VE3KPG<VA3TOK<LU9DCE
Sent: 230124/0830Z 3193@LU9DCE.TOR.BA.ARG.SOAM LinBPQ6.0.23
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ESTACION DE PACKET RADIO - BUENOS AIRES (GF05OM)
BOLETINES INFORMATIVOS PROGRAMADOS (BIP) PHP
Copyright 2022 - Eduardo A. Castillo
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SPC - No watches are valid as of Tue Jan 24 02:16:02 UTC 2023
No watches are valid as of Tue Jan 24 02:16:02 UTC 2023.
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SPC MD 91
MD 0091 CONCERNING HEAVY SNOW FOR PORTIONS OF EASTERN NEW MEXICO
Mesoscale Discussion 0091
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0814 PM CST Mon Jan 23 2023
Areas affected...portions of eastern New Mexico
Concerning...Heavy snow
Valid 240214Z - 240615Z
SUMMARY...A broad area of mixed precipitation is developing in
eastern NM. Snowfall rates exceeding 1"/hr are possible in the next
few hours.
DISCUSSION...A broadening precipitation field is developing in
eastern NM in advance of a cut-off mid-level low currently centered
over southeast AZ. This precipitation is associated with a subtle
500-mb shortwave trough propagating through the broader low,
yielding a local maxima in 700-mb frontogenesis and low-level
ascent. Surface stations at lower elevations are currently reporting
moderate rain with surface temperatures in the low to mid 40s.
Conditions are expected to cool during the next couple of hours
amidst broad upslope flow, yielding a gradual transition from rain
to snow. Increased low-level forcing associated with the mid-level
shortwave (and broader cut-off low) should also support a steady
increase in precipitation rates. This evolution is supported by CAM
guidance suggesting that 1"/hr snowfall rates could evolve within
the next few hours, particularly from around 03-06z.
..Flournoy/Moore.. 01/24/2023
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...
ATTN...WFO...MAF...ABQ...EPZ...
LAT...LON 33200577 34730566 35040496 34850404 34310362 33120358
32730412 32580530 33200577
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SPC Jan 24, 2023 0100 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook
SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0658 PM CST Mon Jan 23 2023
Valid 240100Z - 241200Z
...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...
...SUMMARY...
Thunderstorms will be possible this evening into tonight from
south-central New Mexico eastward into central and northern Texas,
but no severe weather is expected.
...DISCUSSION...
The latest water vapor imagery shows an upper-level low over far
southern Arizona, with mid-level moisture evident from near the low
eastward into the southern High Plains. Ahead of the low, mid-level
flow is from the southwest across the southern Plains. As the low
moves eastward, moisture advection and lift will increase across the
southern Plains tonight. This will make warm-advection-related
thunderstorms possible from parts of central and west Texas westward
into south-central New Mexico. Although the low-level jet will
provide the necessary lift for thunderstorm development, instability
will remain too weak for a severe threat.
..Broyles.. 01/24/2023
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