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LU9DCE > ALERT 04.05.19 07:05z 296 Lines 15574 Bytes #999 (0) @ WW
BID : 23427_LU9DCE
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Subj: Storm Prediction Center 04 05
Path: HB9ON<IW2OHX<IR2UBX<DB0RES<PI8CDR<GB7YEW<VA3TOK<LU9DCE
Sent: 190504/0700Z 23427@LU9DCE.TOR.BA.ARG.SOAM LinBPQ6.0.18
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ESTACION DE PACKET RADIO - BUENOS AIRES (GF05OM)
BOLETINES INFORMATIVOS PROGRAMADOS (BIP)
28.125 USB @ 300 BAUD --- HELLOCODELINUX@GMAIL.COM
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WW 128 SEVERE TSTM TX CW 040200Z - 040800Z
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED Severe Thunderstorm Watch
Number 128 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 900 PM CDT Fri
May 3 2019
The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a
* Severe Thunderstorm Watch for portions of South and southeast
Texas Coastal Waters
* Effective this Friday night and Saturday morning from 900 PM
until 300 AM CDT.
* Primary threats include... Scattered damaging wind gusts to 70
mph possible Isolated large hail events to 1.5 inches in diameter
possible A tornado or two possible
SUMMARY...Line of strong to severe thunderstorms will continue to
progress east-southeast towards the Gulf Coast overnight. Damaging
winds will be the primary hazard, but a brief tornado is possible.
The severe thunderstorm watch area is approximately along and 60
statute miles either side of a line from 35 miles south of Cotulla
TX to 25 miles north northwest of Houston TX. For a complete
depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline update
(WOUS64 KWNS WOU8).
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
REMEMBER...A Severe Thunderstorm Watch means conditions are
favorable for severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area.
Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening
weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible
warnings. Severe thunderstorms can and occasionally do produce
tornadoes.
OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 125...WW 126...WW 127...
AVIATION...A few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft
to 1.5 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 60
knots. A few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 500. Mean storm motion
vector 28025.
...Grams
WW 0128 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 128
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 SW LBX TO
40 WNW HOU TO 25 SW UTS.
..SMITH..05/04/19
ATTN...WFO...CRP...HGX...
STATUS REPORT FOR WS 128
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
TXC039-157-167-201-321-339-473-040700-
TX . TEXAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
BRAZORIA FORT BEND GALVESTON HARRIS
MATAGORDA MONTGOMERY WALLER
GMZ335-350-355-370-375-040700-
CW
. ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS INCLUDED ARE
GALVESTON BAY
COASTAL WATERS FROM FREEPORT TO MATAGORDA SHIP CHANNEL TX OUT 20 NM
COASTAL WATERS FROM HIGH ISLAND TO FREEPORT TX OUT 20 NM
WATERS FROM FREEPORT TO MATAGORDA SHIP CHANNEL TX FROM 20 TO 60 NM
WW 0127 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 127
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 ENE COT TO
35 NNW NIR TO 30 WNW VCT TO 40 N VCT.
..DIAL..05/04/19
ATTN...WFO...EWX...SJT...
STATUS REPORT FOR WS 127
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
TXC013-123-149-255-285-040440-
TX . TEXAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
ATASCOSA DEWITT FAYETTE KARNES
LAVACA
THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE REFER
TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL INFORMATION ON
COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES CLEARED FROM SEVERE
THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES.
SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1256
AM CDT Sat May 04 2019
Valid 041200Z - 051200Z
...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS AND FROM THE CENTRAL GULF COAST TO THE SOUTHERN
APPALACHIANS....
...SUMMARY... Scattered strong storms, some severe, are expected
from the central Gulf Coast across the southern Appalachians. Widely
scattered severe thunderstorms are also expected across the central
and southern High Plains. Locally damaging wind gusts and hail will
be the main concern in both areas.
...Synopsis...
A weak shortwave trough will migrate across the eastern US today,
bringing a band of enhanced southwesterly flow across the central
Gulf Coast states northeast toward the Mid-Atlantic. The main focus
for strong to severe thunderstorm development within the broader
area will be two smaller-scale MCVs. The first is associated with
convection across the Ozarks/lower MS Valley vicinity early this
morning, and evident in radar observations over southwest AR as
of 0530z. The second MCV will emanate from bowing line segment
across the middle and upper TX coast as of this writing. Both
of these features will track east/northeast through the forecast
period, providing enhanced low to mid level shear and forcing in an
otherwise weakly-forced background environment. Additional strong
storms will stretch into the Chesapeake Bay vicinity where a moist
airmass and strong heating in the vicinity of a weak surface trough
and residual outflow from prior days convection will be adequate
for organized storm clusters.
Further west, a weak impulse will migrate across the central/southern
Rockies. Easterly upslope low level flow will maintain modest
dewpoints across the region and isolated to widely-scattered storms
are expected to develop near higher elevations of eastern NM into
southeast CO by mid-afternoon. These storms will shift eastward
into southwest NE and western TX.
...Central Gulf Coast to the Chesapeake Bay Vicinity...
The Slight risk expanding from southern LA into the NC Piedmont
depicts a relative maximum corridor of severe potential today into
this evening. Midlevel flow of 30-50 kt will reside across this
area, and aforementioned MCVs will track east/northeast within
this corridor. Convection will likely be ongoing this morning
across LA and parts of northern MS/AL. This activity is not likely
to be severe, but could produce some strong gusts. The greater
threat will exist into the afternoon downstream from these areas
where stronger heating and surface dewpoints in the mid 60s to
low 70s F will result in MLCAPE of 1000-2000 J/kg. Storm clusters
and line segments will be capable mainly of damaging wind gusts,
though pockets of modestly steep midlevel lapse rates could result
in some near-severe hail. Hi-res guidance is fairly consistent in
at least a couple of stronger forward-propagating line segments
associated with the MCV features moving across southern LA/MS/AL
closer to the Gulf Coast, and another moving across SC and the NC
Piedmont. If these more organized line segment develop, they could
be the focus for more widespread damaging-wind corridors.
Further north toward the VA Piedmont and Chesapeake Bay, more
isolated semi-discrete convection is expected. Forecast soundings
indicated a well-mixed sub-cloud layer, with steep low-level
lapse rates and weak flow beneath 700 mb. This will tend to favor
outflow-dominated convection despite strong flow in the 700-500
mb layer. As such, locally damaging gusts will be possible, and
perhaps some small hail in stronger cells.
...Southern High Plains...
A weak shortwave impulse will migrate across the Rockies and induce
a weak lee trough across southeast CO into eastern NM which will
link with a surface trough northeastward across the central Plains.
Low level easterly upslope flow will maintain surface dewpoints
in the low 50s to low 60s F from eastern NM into western TX, with
more meager values in the mid 40s to low 50s further north into
central KS/NE. While moisture will generally be modest, strong
heating beneath steep midlevel lapse rates will be sufficient for
moderate destabilization and MLCAPE values as high as 1500-2500
J/kg are expected. Widely scattered storms will develop during
the afternoon in effective shear around 35 kt. This should support
severe gusts and hail as storms track eastward into central NE/KS
southward through the OK/TX Panhandles and the TX Big Bend vicinity.
Tornado potential should be low overall, but backed low level flow
could be sufficient for a brief/weak tornado further south from
parts of southeast NM into western TX where better boundary layer
moisture exists.
..Leitman/Bentley.. 05/04/2019
SPC 0600Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1149
PM CDT Fri May 03 2019
Valid 051200Z - 061200Z
...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS
OF THE SOUTHEAST AND PLAINS/MID-MO VALLEY...
...SUMMARY... Isolated strong thunderstorms, a few severe, are
expected across portions of the Southeast Sunday. Isolated severe
thunderstorms should develop across the High Plains from west Texas
into western Iowa.
...Southeast...
Southern-stream short-wave trough is forecast to eject across the
southern Appalachians into the Middle Atlantic/Southeast early
in the period before ejecting off the Atlantic Coast by 06/00z.
Associated surface low, reflective of stronger large-scale forcing,
will progress across southeast VA Sunday morning and a weak surface
front is expected to trail along the SC Coast into northern FL by
18z. Have maintained 5% severe probs for early-day convection ahead
of the front, especially with storms across eastern NC where shear
will be stronger along southern fringe of forcing. Overall, organized
severe threat for gusty winds does not appear that significant.
...Plains/Mid-MO Valley...
Negligible height changes are forecast across much of the middle of
the CONUS within a distinct split-flow regime. Short-wave ridging
is expected to persist across the southern Rockies with deeper
cyclonic flow dominant across the northern Plains. Reinforcing
surface anticyclone is expected to spread south of the international
border during the day2 period which will force a sharp cold front to
a position from central IA-southern NE-southeast WY at 06/00z. While
no identifiable disturbance is suggested by latest model guidance,
convection may ultimately develop along the wind shift, aided in
large part by boundary-layer heating.
Farther south across the southern High Plains, there is some
indication that low-level warm advection may aid an early-morning
convective complex. This activity would be maintained by LLJ
focused across the TX south Plains. If this early-day complex
develops then the dryline should be forced into eastern NM where
diurnal heating/upslope would prove favorable for late afternoon
convection. Forecast shear profiles would support supercells but
too much uncertainty exists regarding aforementioned convection to
introduce a SLGT Risk at this time.
...MAXIMUM RISK BY HAZARD... Tornado: 2% - Marginal Wind:
5% - Marginal Hail: 5% - Marginal
..Darrow.. 05/04/2019
SPC 0730Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0154
AM CDT Sat May 04 2019
Valid 061200Z - 071200Z
...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE MID
MO VALLEY...CENTRAL/SOUTHERN PLAINS TO THE TEXAS COASTAL PLAIN...
...SUMMARY... Strong/isolated severe thunderstorms are possible
across portions of the Plains, Coastal Texas, and the Mid Missouri
Valley.
...Discussion...
Large-scale pattern will not change appreciably during the day2-day3
time frame. Split-flow regime is expected to persist into the
early part of next week which will result in a sharp demarcation
of buoyancy settling south into the I-70 corridor.
...Mid-MO Valley to southern High Plains...
Mid-level heights are forecast to rise across the central/southern
Plains Monday as a pronounced upper trough migrates into the lower
CO River Valley and upper troughing dominates the Hudson Bay region.
This flow regime will allow a sharp front to plunge south across
the central Plains where it should orient itself from MO-KS-CO
by late afternoon. Short-wave trough will likely aid convective
development along the front draped across IA and this activity should
spread southeast along the northeastern extent of more appreciable
instability. Of potentially more concern will be the trailing
boundary across the central Plains. This wind shift will likely
struggle to focus thunderstorm development due to weak forcing, but
thermodynamic profiles are expected to be modestly unstable with
adequate shear for organized severe. Frontal convergence will be
stronger across the High Plains and robust convection should evolve
over eastern CO which will spread east toward KS during the evening.
It's not clear how extensive thunderstorms will develop south along
the dryline into west TX due to weak forcing, but cool temperatures
aloft and strong heating should be adequate for convection.
...Coastal TX...
Low-latitude short-wave trough is forecast to eject across Mexico
toward deep south TX during the day3 period. This feature should
induce a weakness within the surface pressure field near the TX
coast such that warm advection is expected to increase ahead of
the short wave. Latest NAM/GFS/ECMWF all agree that a short wave
should eject into this region which should generate a fair amount
of convection. Depending where the boundary ultimately establishes
itself, severe probs may need to be increased as low-level shear
will be pronounced across this region.
..Darrow.. 05/04/2019
SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0106 AM CDT Sat May 04 2019
Valid 041200Z - 051200Z
...NO CRITICAL AREAS...
...Synopsis... A broad upper-level trough centered over the Midwest
will bring thunderstorms to much of the eastern half of the CONUS
with mostly dry conditions in the west. Surface relative humidities
are expected to drop below 15 percent in much of the Southwest during
the afternoon hours as temperatures rise into the 80s and 90s. A
relatively weak surface pressure gradient and weak flow aloft will
lead to light surface winds across much of this area. Therefore,
there are no areas of concern for large fire growth.
..Bentley.. 05/04/2019
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...
SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0107 AM CDT Sat May 04 2019
Valid 051200Z - 061200Z
...Synopsis... Mostly zonal mid-level flow will be present over
the CONUS on Sunday. A closed mid-level low will be approaching
the California coast through the day. Mid-level flow will start to
increase across the Southwest ahead of this feature. Temperatures
are expected to rise into the 80s and 90s with surface relative
humidities dropping below 15 percent. Daytime heating will lead to
deep mixing which will likely transport somewhat stronger mid-level
winds toward the surface. Mid-level winds are not expected to
be strong enough to support widespread critical conditions, but
elevated conditions may be possible across a large area as winds
increase to around 15 mph during the afternoon hours.
..Bentley.. 05/04/2019
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...
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`Just the place for a Snark!' the Bellman cried,
As he landed his crew with care;
Supporting each man on the top of the tide
By a finger entwined in his hair.
`Just the place for a Snark! I have said it twice:
That alone should encourage the crew.
Just the place for a Snark! I have said it thrice:
What I tell you three times is true.'
//////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////
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