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LU9DCE > ALERT 08.02.23 10:01z 278 Lines 9701 Bytes #999 (0) @ WW
BID : 3523_LU9DCE
Read: GUEST
Subj: STORM PREDICTION CENTER 29-JAN23
Path: HB9ON<IW0QNL<ON0AR<GB7CIP<VE3KPG<VE3CGR<LU9DCE
Sent: 230129/1231Z 3523@LU9DCE.TOR.BA.ARG.SOAM LinBPQ6.0.23
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ESTACION DE PACKET RADIO - BUENOS AIRES (GF05OM)
BOLETINES INFORMATIVOS PROGRAMADOS (BIP) PHP
Copyright 2022 - Eduardo A. Castillo
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SPC - No watches are valid as of Sun Jan 29 09:34:02 UTC 2023
No watches are valid as of Sun Jan 29 09:34:02 UTC 2023.
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SPC - No MDs are in effect as of Sun Jan 29 09:34:02 UTC 2023
No Mesoscale Discussions are in effect as of Sun Jan 29 09:34:02 UTC
2023.
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SPC Jan 29, 2023 0600 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook
SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1127 PM CST Sat Jan 28 2023
Valid 291200Z - 301200Z
...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE GULF
COAST REGION...
...SUMMARY...
Isolated strong to severe thunderstorms are possible Sunday across
parts of the upper Texas Coast/east Texas into the central Gulf
Coast states. Some hail may occur with thunderstorms in east Texas.
Otherwise, locally damaging winds and perhaps a tornado or two
should be the main threats.
...Gulf Coast Region...
Late-evening satellite imagery depicts a weak short-wave trough over
northwest Mexico, in line with latest model guidance. This
southern-stream short wave is forecast to weaken as it ejects toward
south TX later today. As a result, neutral height changes are
expected across the Gulf Coast region; thus, low-level warm
advection should prove instrumental in the majority of convective
development through the period.
Numerous showers, and isolated thunderstorms, currently extend from
northeast TX across AR into western TN. This activity is driven
largely by warm advection ahead of a surging polar front that will
advance into the TX Coastal Plain by 18z, then ease into the lower
MS Valley late. Latest guidance suggests appreciable air mass
recovery will be limited to near-coastal regions, but the majority
of convection will likely be elevated and north of the warm front,
or along/immediately behind the polar front. True warm-sector deep
convection may struggle to evolve due to poor low-level lapse rates
and the lack of forcing. Even so, forecast soundings suggest ample
buoyancy should exist for robust elevated convection, especially
across the upper TX Coast, and this activity could generate some
hail. Otherwise, locally damaging winds are the primary risk with
near-surface-based storms along/near the aforementioned fronts.
..Darrow/Lyons.. 01/29/2023
Read more
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SPC Jan 29, 2023 0700 UTC Day 2 Convective Outlook
SPC 0700Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1200 AM CST Sun Jan 29 2023
Valid 301200Z - 311200Z
...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...
...SUMMARY...
Severe thunderstorms are not forecast on Monday.
...Synopsis and Discussion...
Isolated thunderstorms may occur Monday across parts of the
Southeast along and south of a cold front. With enhanced west-
southwesterly flow aloft expected to persist across this region,
this front should make only slow southeastward progress during the
day. Eventually the cold front will clear the East Coast and reach
much of the Gulf Coast as surface high pressure builds over the
central and eastern CONUS. Weak low-level convergence along the
front and a lack of large-scale ascent aloft should keep overall
thunderstorm coverage low, with the best chances for isolated
lightning flashes Monday morning.
Elevated convection also appears possible Monday across parts of the
southern Plains into the lower MS Valley. Some of this activity may
occur as early as Monday morning well to the north of a surface cold
front which is forecast to be located along/near the TX Coast.
Low-level warm/moist advection centered near the 850 mb front should
be the primary forcing mechanism, with MUCAPE expected to remain
less than 500 J/kg. Other thunderstorms may occur across parts of
central into south-central TX late Monday night into early Tuesday
morning as a southerly low-level jet gradually strengthens.
..Gleason.. 01/29/2023
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SPC Jan 29, 2023 0830 UTC Day 3 Severe Thunderstorm Outlook
SPC 0830Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0214 AM CST Sun Jan 29 2023
Valid 311200Z - 011200Z
...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...
...SUMMARY...
Severe thunderstorms are not forecast on Tuesday.
...Synopsis and Discussion...
A closed upper low centered over southern CA and the Baja Peninsula
should develop very slowly eastward on Tuesday. A large area of
surface high pressure will remain in place over much of the
central/eastern CONUS. Appreciable low-level moisture is forecast to
remain confined along/south of a front which should extend from deep
south TX across coastal portions of the central Gulf Coast states
and into parts of GA/SC. Both instability and large-scale forcing
for ascent are expected to remain minimal where the low-level
moisture exists, which should generally limit the potential for
surface-based thunderstorms. Still, there should be some potential
for isolated lightning flashes with clearly elevated convection from
parts of TX into the ArkLaTex vicinity. This activity will be aided
by warm/moist advection atop the stable near-surface layer, along
with modestly steepened mid-level lapse rates. MUCAPE is forecast to
remain quite weak, generally less than 500 J/kg, which should limit
hail potential with these elevated thunderstorms.
..Gleason.. 01/29/2023
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SPC Jan 29, 2023 Day 4-8 Severe Weather Outlook
Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0330 AM CST Sun Jan 29 2023
Valid 011200Z - 061200Z
...DISCUSSION...
Severe potential may focus across parts of the central Gulf Coast
states on Day 5/Thursday. An upper trough should eject from the
southern Plains across the lower MS Valley and Southeast in this
time frame. A related surface low is forecast to develop near and
perhaps slightly inland across the central Gulf Coast vicinity by
Thursday evening. There are still disparities in deterministic and
ensemble guidance regarding the northward extent of low-level
moisture return, and how much instability can develop through
Thursday afternoon. If some of the more aggressive model solutions
regarding inland warm sector development verify, then at least an
isolated severe threat will probably exist across parts of southern
LA/MS/AL and the FL Panhandle on Thursday. But, due to continued
uncertainty regarding the placement/amplitude of the upper trough
and related surface features, will defer possible introduction of a
15% severe area to a later outlook pending better model agreement.
Some severe threat may persist on Day 6/Friday, mainly across parts
of FL along/ahead of a southward-moving cold front. The upper trough
will likely continue eastward across the remainder of the Southeast,
but it remains unclear whether sufficient low-level moisture and
instability will be in place ahead of the front to support a risk
for organized severe thunderstorms. Have therefore maintained
predictability too low highlights for Friday. After the front clears
the coast, severe potential appears low next weekend across the
CONUS.
Read more
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SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0158 AM CST Sun Jan 29 2023
Valid 291200Z - 301200Z
...NO CRITICAL AREAS...
...Synopsis...
Flow aloft is forecast to gradually increase over the western CONUS
Sunday as low-amplitude ridging strengthens over the east. An upper
low along the west coast will gradually amplify increasing flow
aloft over portions of the Southwest. A cold front will move south
through the plains as surface high pressure strengthens over the
northern Rockies. While cold arctic air will limit fire-weather
potential over much of the Plains, dry and windy conditions should
remain somewhat sheltered across portions of southern NM and far
west TX ahead of the front. Southwesterly surface winds of 10-20 mph
and RH below 20% will be common. However, recent precipitation has
limited fuel availability such that any fire-weather conditions are
likely to remain very localized and below Elevated criteria.
..Lyons.. 01/29/2023
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...
Read more
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SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0201 AM CST Sun Jan 29 2023
Valid 301200Z - 311200Z
...NO CRITICAL AREAS...
...Synopsis...
A cold and stable arctic airmass is forecast to remain in place over
much of the Plains and central CONUS D2/Mon. Broad southwesterly
flow will remain strong over portions of the Southwest. Gusty winds
and dry surface conditions should remain confined to portions of the
southern and western NM deserts where fuel availability is low owing
to recent precipitation. Thus, fire-weather concerns are minimal.
..Lyons.. 01/29/2023
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...
Read more
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