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LU9DCE > ALERT 16.02.23 08:41z 373 Lines 11175 Bytes #999 (0) @ WW
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Subj: STORM PREDICTION CENTER 16-FEB23
Path: HB9ON<IW0QNL<VE2PKT<W0ARP<LU9DCE
Sent: 230216/0630Z 4575@LU9DCE.TOR.BA.ARG.SOAM LinBPQ6.0.23
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ESTACION DE PACKET RADIO - BUENOS AIRES (GF05OM)
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WW 35 SEVERE TSTM AR OK 160345Z - 160900Z
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
Severe Thunderstorm Watch Number 35
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
945 PM CST Wed Feb 15 2023
The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a
* Severe Thunderstorm Watch for portions of
Western Arkansas
Eastern Oklahoma
* Effective this Wednesday night and Thursday morning from 945 PM
until 300 AM CST.
* Primary threats include...
Scattered damaging wind gusts to 70 mph possible
Scattered large hail events to 1.5 inches in diameter possible
A tornado or two possible
SUMMARY...Broken clusters of storms will continue east-northeastward
across eastern Oklahoma into western Arkansas through the late
evening and early overnight hours. Severe hail/wind are the primary
hazards, but an isolated tornado threat exists as well.
The severe thunderstorm watch area is approximately along and 50
statute miles east and west of a line from 5 miles northeast of
Fayetteville AR to 35 miles west southwest of De Queen AR. For a
complete depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline
update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU5).
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
REMEMBER...A Severe Thunderstorm Watch means conditions are
favorable for severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area.
Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening
weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible
warnings. Severe thunderstorms can and occasionally do produce
tornadoes.
&&
OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 33...WW 34...
AVIATION...A few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to
1.5 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 60 knots. A
few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 500. Mean storm motion vector
23030.
...Guyer
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SPC Tornado Watch 34
WW 34 TORNADO AR LA MO MS TN 160320Z - 161100Z
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
Tornado Watch Number 34
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
920 PM CST Wed Feb 15 2023
The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a
* Tornado Watch for portions of
Central and Eastern Arkansas
Northern Louisiana
Missouri Bootheel
Western and northern Mississippi
Western and Middle Tennessee
* Effective this Wednesday night and Thursday morning from 920 PM
until 500 AM CST.
* Primary threats include...
A few tornadoes and a couple intense tornadoes possible
Scattered damaging wind gusts to 70 mph likely
Isolated large hail events to 1.5 inches in diameter possible
SUMMARY...Severe weather potential including a risk for supercells
capable of tornadoes along with damaging wind potential is expected
to increase through late evening and overnight across the region.
The tornado watch area is approximately along and 90 statute miles
east and west of a line from 15 miles southeast of Natchitoches LA
to 30 miles north northeast of Dyersburg TN. For a complete
depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline update
(WOUS64 KWNS WOU4).
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
REMEMBER...A Tornado Watch means conditions are favorable for
tornadoes and severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch
area. Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for
threatening weather conditions and listen for later statements
and possible warnings.
&&
OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 33...
AVIATION...Tornadoes and a few severe thunderstorms with hail
surface and aloft to 1.5 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind
gusts to 60 knots. A few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 550. Mean
storm motion vector 22030.
...Guyer
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SPC Severe Thunderstorm Watch 33
WW 33 SEVERE TSTM OK TX 152145Z - 160400Z
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
Severe Thunderstorm Watch Number 33
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
345 PM CST Wed Feb 15 2023
The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a
* Severe Thunderstorm Watch for portions of
Central and eastern Oklahoma
North Texas
* Effective this Wednesday afternoon and evening from 345 PM
until 1000 PM CST.
* Primary threats include...
Scattered large hail and isolated very large hail events to 2
inches in diameter possible
Isolated damaging wind gusts to 70 mph possible
A tornado or two possible
SUMMARY...Supercell thunderstorms are expected to develop and
increase in coverage over the next couple of hours. These storms
will spread northeast with an attendant threat for large to very
large hail and damaging gusts. A tornado or two may be possible this
evening closer to the Red River.
The severe thunderstorm watch area is approximately along and 60
statute miles east and west of a line from 50 miles north northwest
of Mcalester OK to 15 miles southeast of Fort Worth TX. For a
complete depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline
update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU3).
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
REMEMBER...A Severe Thunderstorm Watch means conditions are
favorable for severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area.
Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening
weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible
warnings. Severe thunderstorms can and occasionally do produce
tornadoes.
&&
AVIATION...A few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to
2 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 60 knots. A
few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 400. Mean storm motion vector
24035.
...Leitman/Thompson
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SPC Tornado Watch 34 Status Reports
WW 0034 Status Updates
STATUS FOR WATCH 0034 HAS NOT BEEN ISSUED YET
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SPC Severe Thunderstorm Watch 33 Status Reports
WW 0033 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 33
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 SSE CHK
TO 35 SSE OKC TO 5 SSW CQB.
FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0152
..THORNTON..02/16/23
ATTN...WFO...OUN...TSA...FWD...
STATUS REPORT FOR WS 33
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
OKC005-013-019-023-029-049-061-063-067-069-077-085-091-095-099-
101-107-111-121-123-125-127-133-137-160340-
OK
. OKLAHOMA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
ATOKA BRYAN CARTER
CHOCTAW COAL GARVIN
HASKELL HUGHES JEFFERSON
JOHNSTON LATIMER LOVE
MCINTOSH MARSHALL MURRAY
MUSKOGEE OKFUSKEE OKMULGEE
PITTSBURG PONTOTOC POTTAWATOMIE
PUSHMATAHA SEMINOLE STEPHENS
TXC077-085-097-113-119-121-147-181-231-237-277-337-367-397-439-
497-160340-
TX
. TEXAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
CLAY COLLIN COOKE
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SPC MD 153
MD 0153 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH NEEDED SOON FOR
SOUTHEASTERN OKLAHOMA AND WESTERN ARKANSAS
Mesoscale Discussion 0153
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0921 PM CST Wed Feb 15 2023
Areas affected...southeastern Oklahoma and western Arkansas
Concerning...Severe potential...Watch needed soon
Valid 160321Z - 160415Z
Probability of Watch Issuance...95 percent
SUMMARY...Severe threat continues this evening. Downstream watch
issuance likely needed.
DISCUSSION...A broken line of thunderstorms continues to advance
northeastward this evening across eastern Oklahoma. A few more
discrete cells have been able to develop ahead of the main line
producing severe hail. Recently, 1 inch hail was reported near Ada,
Oklahoma. The risk of severe hail and gusty winds will continue to
be favored, especially within storms that can maintain discrete
modes within the warm sector. Boundary layer conditions continue to
be unfavorably dry with dew points in the mid 50s across much of
eastern Oklahoma. Recent surface objective analysis indicates that
the capping inversion across far southeastern OK/TX/AR may be
eroding in the last few hours within a region of 1000-1500 J/kg of
SBCAPE. Surface observations show 60 F dew points within the
Arklatex vicinity extending as far northward as McCurtain County
Oklahoma. A tornado or two will be possible with discrete modes/line
mergers occur within the corridor of better low-level moisture,
especially as shear profiles are further enhanced with increasing
850 mb flow over the next couple of hours. A downstream watch will
likely be needed within the hour.
..Thornton/Guyer.. 02/16/2023
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...
ATTN...WFO...LZK...SHV...TSA...FWD...OUN...
LAT...LON 33869803 34369764 34669705 34889669 34939650 35009591
35249532 35549496 35909461 36339447 36359417 36109390
35869369 35469353 35109343 34549362 34339378 34159391
34079404 34009506 33899568 33839660 33769700 33629779
33869803
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SPC Feb 16, 2023 0100 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook
SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0637 PM CST Wed Feb 15 2023
Valid 160100Z - 161200Z
...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS
OF THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND MID-SOUTH REGION...
...SUMMARY...
Severe thunderstorms with large hail are possible over parts of
north Texas and southern Oklahoma this evening. A threat for
tornadoes, severe-thunderstorm winds and isolated hail will develop
tonight over the lower Mississippi Valley/Mid-South region.
...01z Update...
Leading edge of large-scale ascent appears to be spreading across
western OK, ahead of the main upper trough located over the southern
Rockies. During the last few hours, agitated cu field along the dry
line has evolved into a small cluster of discrete
showers/thunderstorms that is lifting northeast along the surface
front over south-central OK. 00z sounding from FWD exhibited steep
lapse rates, but remained capped around 2km, while OUN was decidedly
north of the boundary with moistening near 700mb in response to the
approaching trough. This cluster of evolving storms should expand in
areal coverage and intensity as it propagates into a region of
higher-PW air mass over southeast OK and adjacent portions of north
TX near the Red River.
Downstream, LLJ should begin to strengthen this evening across the
lower MS Valley/Mid-South. This will allow higher moisture to
advance north across the MS Delta into western TN/northeast AR. 00z
sounding from LZK remains capped near 2km, while SHV had a much
weaker cap near 3km. As mid-level lapse rates adjust/cool across
this region isolated supercells will likely evolve within the warm
advection zone/strengthening LLJ. Supercells with all hazards are
expected, along with the possibility for a strong tornado.
..Darrow.. 02/16/2023
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