| |
LU9DCE > ALERT 18.02.23 14:31z 175 Lines 5824 Bytes #999 (0) @ WW
BID : 4734_LU9DCE
Read: GUEST
Subj: STORM PREDICTION CENTER 18-FEB23
Path: HB9ON<IW0QNL<IZ3LSV<I0OJJ<LU4ECL<LU9DCE
Sent: 230218/1230Z 4734@LU9DCE.TOR.BA.ARG.SOAM LinBPQ6.0.23
__ _ _ ___ ____ ___ ____ ____ ____ ____
( ) / )( \/ _ \( \ / __)( __) ( _ \( _ \/ ___)
/ (_/\) \/ (\__ )) D (( (__ ) _) ) _ ( ) _ (\___ \
\____/\____/(___/(____/ \___)(____) (____/(____/(____/
ESTACION DE PACKET RADIO - BUENOS AIRES (GF05OM)
BOLETINES INFORMATIVOS PROGRAMADOS (BIP) PHP
Copyright 2022 - Eduardo A. Castillo
+----------------------------------------------------------------------------+
=#=#=#=#=#=#=#=#=
SPC - No watches are valid as of Sat Feb 18 10:20:02 UTC 2023
No watches are valid as of Sat Feb 18 10:20:02 UTC 2023.
=#=#=#=#=#=#=#=#=
SPC - No MDs are in effect as of Sat Feb 18 10:20:02 UTC 2023
No Mesoscale Discussions are in effect as of Sat Feb 18 10:20:02 UTC
2023.
=#=#=#=#=#=#=#=#=
SPC Feb 18, 2023 0830 UTC Day 3 Severe Thunderstorm Outlook
SPC 0830Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0138 AM CST Sat Feb 18 2023
Valid 201200Z - 211200Z
...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...
...SUMMARY...
Severe thunderstorms are not forecast across the contiguous United
States on Monday.
...Synopsis...
The continuation of a split-flow upper-air pattern will feature a
closed low to the west of Baja California and several low-amplitude
disturbances migrating east across the northern stream. Surface high
pressure is forecast to weaken over the Gulf of Mexico, and a
gradual increase in low-level moisture is forecast over the coastal
plain of the central Gulf Coast. Weak low-level warm-air advection
may result in a few showers and perhaps a couple of weak elevated
thunderstorms late Monday night from southern AR into north-central
AL.
..Smith.. 02/18/2023
Read more
=#=#=#=#=#=#=#=#=
SPC Feb 18, 2023 Day 4-8 Severe Weather Outlook
Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0344 AM CST Sat Feb 18 2023
Valid 211200Z - 261200Z
...DISCUSSION...
Medium-range models show a mid-level low over Baja California moving
east and evolving into an open trough over northern Mexico on
Tuesday (day 4). Substantial model variability exists in the
depicted evolution of this low-latitude, negatively tilted shortwave
trough. According to medium-range models, the wind fields are very
intense over the Arklatex/ArkLaMiss region and areas northeastward
into the Mid South on Wednesday. Large uncertainty exists in the
initiating mechanism/s for thunderstorms, the thermodynamic
profiles, and the convective mode---all consequential variables yet
to be resolved. Nonetheless, an area of interest has been
highlighted with 15-percent severe probabilities centered over the
ArkLaMiss vicinity on Wednesday (day 5). A seasonably large amount
of arctic air is projected over the central High Plains by mid week.
It seems likely the continental-polar airmass behind a sharp front
will influence the west and northwest portions of a warm sector by
Thursday (day 6). Model variability is high by the latter part of
the extended period.
Read more
=#=#=#=#=#=#=#=#=
SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1147 PM CST Fri Feb 17 2023
Valid 181200Z - 191200Z
...Synopsis...
Strong high pressure will remain across the Southeast today. A
southern stream shortwave trough will accelerate northeast through
West Texas into mid Mississippi Valley. This subtle feature will
promote modest lee troughing in the High Plains. Low-level winds
from far eastern New Mexico into Kansas will increase during the
day. Gusty winds of 15-25 mph appear likely in a corridor from the
Texas Panhandle into parts of central/eastern Kansas. Fuels are not
likely to be uniformly dry given some locations have had recent
snow. RH reductions during the afternoon still exhibit high
variability in guidance. However, most areas could see values near
20% with potentially lower values locally. Elevated fire concerns
will exist primarily due to the strong winds.
..Wendt.. 02/18/2023
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...
Read more
=#=#=#=#=#=#=#=#=
SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0135 AM CST Sat Feb 18 2023
Valid 191200Z - 201200Z
...NO CRITICAL AREAS...
...Synopsis...
Moderate zonal flow aloft will develop across parts of the central
and southern Rockies on Sunday. Off the southern California coast, a
cut-off low will edge closer to the Baja Peninsula. At the surface,
a cold front will sag southward into the southern Plains through the
day. For most of the day, the pressure gradient will be modest. A
subtle shortwave trough moving into the central Rockies later in the
period will help to deepen a surface low in the High Plains. Models
show large variability in terms of afternoon RH reductions from West
Texas into western Oklahoma/Kansas. However, it is probable that at
least a narrow band of RH around 20% will develop as westerly
downslope winds increase in the vicinity of the boundary. Fuels will
likely be somewhat drier in many locations given the dry and windy
conditions on Saturday. Winds, however, are not expected to be
overly strong and may only reach 15-20 mph. Farther south, in the
Texas Panhandle/South Plains, similar winds are expected, but higher
RH will occur as well due to greater cloud cover. At this time,
elevated fire weather concerns appear as though they will be
localized.
..Wendt.. 02/18/2023
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...
Read more
+----------------------------------------------------------------------------+
hecho en PHP: Hypertext Preprocessor - Desarrollado por Eduardo Castillo
Read previous mail | Read next mail
| |
