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LU9DCE > ALERT 22.02.23 12:11z 327 Lines 12162 Bytes #999 (0) @ WW
BID : 4962_LU9DCE
Read: GUEST
Subj: STORM PREDICTION CENTER 22-FEB23
Path: HB9ON<IW8PGT<I3XTY<I0OJJ<GB7CIP<VE3KPG<VA3TOK<LU9DCE
Sent: 230222/1200Z 4962@LU9DCE.TOR.BA.ARG.SOAM LinBPQ6.0.23
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ESTACION DE PACKET RADIO - BUENOS AIRES (GF05OM)
BOLETINES INFORMATIVOS PROGRAMADOS (BIP) PHP
Copyright 2022 - Eduardo A. Castillo
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SPC - No watches are valid as of Wed Feb 22 09:03:02 UTC 2023
No watches are valid as of Wed Feb 22 09:03:02 UTC 2023.
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SPC - No MDs are in effect as of Wed Feb 22 09:03:02 UTC 2023
No Mesoscale Discussions are in effect as of Wed Feb 22 09:03:02 UTC
2023.
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SPC Feb 22, 2023 0600 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook
SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1126 PM CST Tue Feb 21 2023
Valid 221200Z - 231200Z
...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR CENTRAL
OKLAHOMA INTO MISSOURI AND WEST-CENTRAL ILLINOIS...
...SUMMARY...
Severe thunderstorms are possible from Wednesday morning through
afternoon from parts of Oklahoma into western Arkansas, across
Missouri and western Illinois. Damaging winds appear most likely.
...Synopsis...
A potent and compact shortwave trough initially in the southern High
Plains will make rapid progress northeastward into the Ohio Valley
by early evening. A Pacific front/dryline will move east through
Oklahoma before being overtaken by a cold front later in the period.
A warm front from northern Missouri to central Illinois/Indiana will
tend to make little progress north due to the entrenched cold air
over the Great Lakes region. Lower 60s F dewpoints are expected to
move northward Tuesday evening and reach the Midwest by the
afternoon. Greater moisture (upper 60s F dewpoints) will remain
within the lower Mississippi Valley region.
...Oklahoma into central Missouri and west-central Illinois...
Storms are likely to develop early Wednesday morning in Oklahoma.
Additional storms will develop along near the surface low and warm
front into Missouri and Illinois. Some of the stronger initial
updrafts could produce marginally severe hail. Forcing from the
shortwave trough will be strongest in these areas. Wind profiles
will be quite strong at low and mid levels. Boundary-layer
destabilization may be relatively weak given the amount of cloud
cover expected. Even so, 250-500 J/kg of MLCAPE, with perhaps
locally higher values where cloud breaks occur, will support
convective transport of strong low-level winds to the surface. In
combination with the fast storm motions expected, wind damage will
be the primary threat with any linear segments that can develop.
Low-level shear will also support line-embedded circulations.
...Northern Mississippi...
A conditional threat for a supercell or two will exist tomorrow
afternoon. A few CAMs show thunderstorms developing ahead of the
Pacific front/dryline. Storm initiation is somewhat questionable
given the somewhat of a glancing influence from the shortwave
trough. Furthermore, given the antecedent ridging in the Southeast,
mid-level temperatures are warmer and lapse rates are poor as a
result. Should a storm or two develop, damaging winds and perhaps a
tornado would be possible.
..Wendt/Kerr.. 02/22/2023
Read more
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SPC Feb 22, 2023 0700 UTC Day 2 Convective Outlook
SPC 0700Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1147 PM CST Tue Feb 21 2023
Valid 231200Z - 241200Z
...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...
...SUMMARY...
Little thunderstorm activity is expected over the U.S.A. on
Thursday. A few lightning flashes will be possible over parts of the
Northeast, and across western parts of California.
...Synopsis and Discussion...
A broad area of strong upper-level southwesterlies will stretch from
the base of a trough over the Southwest across the Plains and into
the Northeast. Within this flow regime, a low-amplitude wave will
intensify as it moves across the Great Lakes and into the Northeast,
with up to 130 kt winds at 500 mb. Meanwhile, an upper high will
slowly retrograde from the Bahamas across FL.
At the surface, low pressure will move from northern IL Thursday
morning into NY by 00Z, with a cold front trailing southwestward
across the OH Valley and toward the TX Coast. The low will translate
eastward close to an east-west oriented baroclinic zone, which may
not make much northward progress.
Across the warm sector, 50s F dewpoints are forecast to reach OH/PA,
with mid to upper 60s F across the central Gulf states. Weak
surface-based CAPE may develop over parts of LA/MS/AL during the
day, but lift will not be favorable for storm development.
Scattered showers and a few thunderstorms appear most probable near
the surface low/cold front from eastern OH into the Northeast, where
elevated CAPE around 100 J/kg may develop. Wind fields will be
intense just off the surface, which could lead to a few strong gusts
with any showers or weak storms.
Otherwise, scattered low-topped convection will be possible over
coastal OR and much of coastal CA, where lapse rates will be steep
due to cold air aloft beneath the upper trough.
..Jewell.. 02/22/2023
Read more
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SPC Feb 22, 2023 0830 UTC Day 3 Severe Thunderstorm Outlook
SPC 0830Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1215 AM CST Wed Feb 22 2023
Valid 241200Z - 251200Z
...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...
...SUMMARY...
A few low-topped thunderstorms may occur on Friday over parts of
coastal into central California.
...Synopsis/Discussion...
An upper high will retrograde into the Gulf of Mexico on Friday as
an upper wave exits the Northeast and another dives southeastward
into the northern Plains Friday night. Farther west, a deep upper
low will move south just off the CA Coast, with a cyclonically
curved jet max nosing into southern CA toward 12Z Saturday.
At the surface, a substantial surface ridge will be located over the
northern and central Plains, with a cold front pushing south across
the Gulf Coast states and coastal Southeast. The front will stall
overnight, with mid 60s F dewpoints common to the south.
Meanwhile, the deep-layer cyclone will remain off the CA Coast
through the period, but cold temperatures aloft will remain,
favoring scattered showers including a few lightning flashes. MUCAPE
is forecast to remain less than 100 J/kg, suggesting only weak
convection across central and western portions of the state. While
winds will veer with height, surface temperatures will remain
relatively cool/stable due to widespread precipitation, reducing
surface heating.
Otherwise, weak warm advection atop the Gulf-Coast boundary may
result in a few elevated showers, but the overall thunderstorm
threat appears negligible.
..Jewell.. 02/22/2023
Read more
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SPC Feb 22, 2023 Day 4-8 Severe Weather Outlook
Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0300 AM CST Wed Feb 22 2023
Valid 251200Z - 021200Z
...DISCUSSION...
On Saturday/D4, an upper low will move across southern CA late in
the day, reaching the lower CO Valley early on Sunday/D5. Meanwhile,
temporary upper ridging will occur over the Plains with a broad
expanse of northwesterlies across the East. Southerly surface winds
will increase Saturday/D4 night across the western Gulf of Mexico
and TX, aiding moisture advection northward. While instability will
begin to develop over western TX and OK, severe thunderstorms are
not expected Saturday/D4.
On Sunday/D5, the upper trough will accelerate eastward across NM,
reaching the southern High Plains by 00Z Monday. Strong
southwesterly midlevel winds of 70-90 kt will emerge, as low
pressure rapidly deepens over eastern CO/western KS. A dryline will
extend south from the low into west TX, followed closely by a
prominent cold front.
As dewpoints in the lower 60s F surge north toward the low, MUCAPE
of 500-1000 J/kg is forecast to develop from far southwest KS into
northwest TX, and this will occur with an increasingly low-level jet
near 50 kt at 00Z Monday. By this time, the wave is expected to take
on a negative tilt, with rapid height falls across the warm sector
and a surging cold front. The end result is likely to be severe
storms including supercells during the late afternoon from western
KS into the TX/OK Panhandles, and extending into northwest TX and
western OK prior to the cold front passage. Large hail and a few
tornadoes will be possible. As linear forcing increases with time, a
squall line producing damaging winds, including QLCS potential, is
forecast over much of OK, southern KS and northern TX. The eastward
extent of the severe threat will be limited by instability, most
likely waning roughly from the Arklatex into the Ozarks. Cooling
aloft with the shortwave trough may result in at least minimally
supportive instability into MO overnight, where wind fields will be
very strong ahead of the deepening low. Given sufficient run-to-run
model consistency, an area of 30% all-severe hazards has been added
to parts of TX, western OK and south-central KS.
On Monday/D6, the shortwave trough will move rapidly across the OH
Valley, with the surface low approaching Lower MI by 00Z Tuesday. By
this time, instability will be weaker, perhaps only a few hundred
J/kg or less. In addition, predictability is shown to decrease.
Therefore, while some severe wind threat may persist in association
with the surface low and cold front, will wait for better model
consistency before introducing a possible 15% severe risk for the
mid MS/OH Valley areas.
Read more
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SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0103 AM CST Wed Feb 22 2023
Valid 221200Z - 231200Z
...Synopsis...
A large-scale trough will move into the Four Corners region today. A
strong mid-level jet will reach the southern High Plains by late
afternoon. At the surface, a Pacific front/dryline will continue
east in the southern Plains. Strong surface winds will develop
behind the boundary during the morning/afternoon which will lead to
a broad area of elevated fire weather in the region. Winds across
the Texas Panhandle into the South Plains will reach 20-35 mph.
Farther south into the Big Bend, 15-20% will be more likely, with
perhaps higher speeds within the terrain. RH will be more marginal
(20-30%) where the winds will be the strongest. Within the Big Bend,
RH of 10-20% is more probable given the higher temperatures
expected. While critical fire weather is expected to occur at least
locally, the marginal RH into the Texas Panhandle and the marginal
fuel dryness region-wide continues to reduce confidence in
highlighting an area at greater risk for large fires.
..Wendt.. 02/22/2023
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...
Read more
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SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0109 AM CST Wed Feb 22 2023
Valid 231200Z - 241200Z
...NO CRITICAL AREAS...
...Synopsis...
A broad trough and strong mid-level winds will remain across the
Southwest into the southern/central Plains. A cold front will move
into the southern Plains through the afternoon. The strong flow
across the southern Rockies will again promote a lee trough along
the Texas/New Mexico border. Breezy conditions will be possible in
the southern High Plains, but RH values will generally be in the
20-30% range outside of the Big Bend. Only locally elevated fire
weather is expected on Thursday.
..Wendt.. 02/22/2023
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...
Read more
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