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LU9DCE > ALERT 04.05.19 22:24z 332 Lines 18373 Bytes #999 (0) @ WW
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Subj: Storm Prediction Center 04 05
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ESTACION DE PACKET RADIO - BUENOS AIRES (GF05OM)
BOLETINES INFORMATIVOS PROGRAMADOS (BIP)
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WW 130 SEVERE TSTM AL FL MS CW 041715Z - 042300Z
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED Severe Thunderstorm Watch
Number 130 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1215 PM CDT Sat
May 4 2019
The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a
* Severe Thunderstorm Watch for portions of Southern Alabama Florida
Panhandle Southeast Mississippi Coastal Waters
* Effective this Saturday afternoon and evening from 1215 PM until
600 PM CDT.
* Primary threats include... Scattered damaging wind gusts to 70
mph possible A tornado or two possible
SUMMARY...A nearly continuous north/south-oriented line of storms
will continue to progress east/northeastward across the region with
the possibility of a few additional strong to severe storms just
ahead of it. Within a very moist air mass, modestly strengthening
low/mid-level winds will support well-organized storms including
bowing segments capable of damaging winds and perhaps a tornado
or two.
The severe thunderstorm watch area is approximately along and 70
statute miles north and south of a line from 20 miles west northwest
of Gulfport MS to 25 miles east of Evergreen AL. For a complete
depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline update
(WOUS64 KWNS WOU0).
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
REMEMBER...A Severe Thunderstorm Watch means conditions are
favorable for severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area.
Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening
weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible
warnings. Severe thunderstorms can and occasionally do produce
tornadoes.
AVIATION...A few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft
to 1.5 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 60
knots. A few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 500. Mean storm motion
vector 23025.
...Guyer
WW 0130 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 130
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 SSW PNS TO
45 WSW SEM.
..GOSS..05/04/19
ATTN...WFO...BMX...MOB...LIX...
STATUS REPORT FOR WS 130
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
ALC001-013-035-039-041-047-053-085-099-131-042140-
AL . ALABAMA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
AUTAUGA BUTLER CONECUH COVINGTON
CRENSHAW DALLAS ESCAMBIA LOWNDES
MONROE WILCOX
FLC033-091-113-042140-
FL . FLORIDA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
ESCAMBIA OKALOOSA SANTA ROSA
GMZ634-042140-
CW
. ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS INCLUDED ARE
MD 0536 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY FOR NORTHERN
SOUTH CAROLINA...CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA...AND SOUTHERN VIRGINIA
Mesoscale Discussion 0536 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0451 PM CDT Sat May 04 2019
Areas affected...Northern South Carolina...central North
Carolina...and southern Virginia
Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely
Valid 042151Z - 042315Z
Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent
SUMMARY...Numerous storms are expected to continue through the
evening with a threat for isolated large hail and damaging winds. No
severe thunderstorm watch is expected.
DISCUSSION...Numerous thunderstorms have developed along and ahead
of a weak surface low currently in central South Carolina. Storm
organization varies widely across the Carolinas with mostly pulse
convection in central and eastern South Carolina where deep layer
shear is only 15 to 20 knots per CAE VWP. However, deep layer shear
is much more favorable in western South Carolina and North Carolina
where the GSP VWP shows deep layer shear around 35 to 40 knots.
Where deep-layer shear is more favorable, buoyancy is much more
limited as surface temperatures are in the upper 60s to low 70s.
There is a narrow corridor where better deep layer shear and
instability overlap. This corridor is where storms have been able
to remain more organized with occasional reports of severe hail or
wind. Expect this threat to continue for several more hours this
evening. However, due to the narrow area with favorable severe
weather parameters and the limited residency of any individual
storm within this favorable area, a severe thunderstorm watch is
not anticipated.
..Bentley/Grams.. 05/04/2019
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...
ATTN...WFO...AKQ...MHX...RAH...ILM...RNK...CHS...CAE...GSP... FFC...
LAT...LON 35348149 35798091 36648039 37298011 37267883 36837773
36027773 34627821 33977870 33667910 33527974 33478048 33788221
33958273 34478273 35348149
MD 0535 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE FOR EASTERN
NM...SOUTHEAST CO...SOUTHWEST KS...OK/TX PANHANDLES
Mesoscale Discussion 0535 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0331 PM CDT Sat May 04 2019
Areas affected...Eastern NM...Southeast CO...Southwest KS...OK/TX
Panhandles
Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible
Valid 042031Z - 042230Z
Probability of Watch Issuance...40 percent
SUMMARY...Widely scattered severe thunderstorms are possible
later this afternoon into the early evening. While the coverage
of severe storms remains uncertain, watch issuance is possible for
some portion of the area by 21-23Z.
DISCUSSION...Thunderstorms are ongoing across southeast CO at 2030Z,
with other convection developing across the higher terrain across
NM. A gradual increase in thunderstorm coverage is expected with time
through the rest of the afternoon, potentially aided somewhat by
a weak midlevel wave emerging from the High Plains. Steep midlevel
lapse rates and sufficient low-level moisture should allow MLCAPE
to increase into the 1000-1500 J/kg range by late afternoon, with
effective shear of 35-45 kt supportive of organized structures,
including a few supercells.
The greatest short-term risk (prior to 21Z) should be with the
ongoing convection across southeast CO/southwest KS, though the
environment is not as favorable that far north. Further south,
CAM solutions generally suggest that initial convection along the
high terrain may weaken as it moves east, but additional initiation
(within a better environment) is possible further east after 22Z,
within a weakly confluent regime where boundary-layer moisture
is more favorable. The eventual coverage of severe storms across
this area remains uncertain, but due to the potential for at least
widely scattered supercells, watch issuance is possible within the
21-23Z timeframe.
..Dean/Guyer.. 05/04/2019
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...
ATTN...WFO...DDC...GLD...LUB...AMA...MAF...PUB...ABQ...
LAT...LON 32890513 33970519 35810478 37480309 38340223 38450134
37150109 36160133 33640266 32940323 32640403 32540479 32890513
SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0235
PM CDT Sat May 04 2019
Valid 042000Z - 051200Z
...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PARTS OF
THE SOUTHERN/CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS AND FROM THE CENTRAL GULF COAST
NORTHEASTWARD TO THE MID-ATLANTIC...
...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms capable of large hail and damaging gusts
are expected this afternoon and evening over the southern/central
High Plains, with other severe thunderstorms possible from portions
of the Gulf Coast across the southern Appalachians to parts of the
Mid-Atlantic States.
...20Z Outlook Update... Much of the ongoing convective outlook
adequately address ongoing severe threats across the Southeast and
Plains. Only minor adjustments were made to the outlook to adjust
severe probabilities downward behind a linear complex moving across
southern Alabama currently. Instability has lessened due to prior
overturning, and eastward progression of the mid-level wave over
southeastern Louisiana should eventual result in subsidence across
the area. A minor change to the Marginal area was made in Florida to
reflect convective trends. Finally, development across Nebraska and
Kansas should continue to expand in time and pose a wind/hail threat
from those areas southward into west Texas. Ref MDs 531 and 532 for
mesoscale details across Nebraska and southwest Texas, respectively.
..Cook.. 05/04/2019
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1132 AM CDT Sat May 04 2019/
...Gulf Coast to Southern Appalachians/Mid-Atlantic... Multiple
shortwave troughs/MCVs will progress northeastward across the
region through the afternoon and evening, including one over
the southern Appalachians vicinity as well as over the ArkLaMiss
vicinity at midday. Related forcing for ascent and a strengthening
of low/mid-tropospheric winds will accompany these features
while otherwise semi-focusing corridors of more probable severe
thunderstorm development.
This includes severe potential related to an
east/northeastward-spreading north/south-oriented band of storms
located across far southeast Louisiana and southeast Mississippi
at midday. In spite of multi-layer cloud cover, steady heating
coincident with a moist air mass (70+ F surface dewpoints in coastal
areas) continues to steadily erode convective inhibition. Recent
regional WSR-88D VWP data from Slidell LA/Mobile AL suggest an
enhanced wind field with near-40 kt effective shear will accompany
these storms as they progress across southeast Mississippi into
southern Alabama and western Florida Panhandle. A well-organized
convective line should persist, although a discrete supercell or
two could occur immediately ahead of the convective line. Damaging
winds will be the most probable hazard, although a tornado could
also occur.
Another sub-regional corridor of increasing strong/severe
thunderstorm risk should be semi-focused initially across northern
Georgia into the western Carolinas. Damaging winds will be the
primary risk.
...Southern/central High Plains... Little if any changes needed for
this regional risk area/scenario. Widely scattered to scattered
thunderstorms are forecast to develop along a wind shift and
confluence line over portions of NE and near a lee trough/dryline
from eastern CO southward to eastern NM. Damaging gusts and large
hail are possible.
Mid-level lapse rates and low-level theta-e each will be generally
greater with southward extent, combining with diurnal heating to
boost MLCAPE to near 1000 J/kg in a narrow corridor along the
southern High Plains. Well-mixed boundary layers will support
the potential for strong-severe gusts in the most intense cells,
especially across the 15%/slight-risk area. Deep shear will be
relatively maximized from southeastern CO southward across eastern
NM and adjoining parts of TX as well, under a mid/upper-level speed
max. Given that factor and slightly greater buoyancy, the relatively
favorable CAPE/shear parameter space should encourage convection to
persist into the evening longer and become better- organized across
parts of extreme eastern NM, west TX and the Panhandle region. A
blend of multicellular and supercellular modes is possible given
the forecast 35-45-kt effective-shear magnitudes.
...Florida Peninsula... Ample moisture/insolation will contribute
to moderately strong buoyancy and weak inhibition this afternoon. A
couple of strong/locally severe storms capable of downbursts could
occur in vicinity of the east coast sea breeze.
SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1225
PM CDT Sat May 04 2019
Valid 051200Z - 061200Z
...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS NORTHERN
FLORIDA...SOUTHEASTERN GEORGIA...EASTERN SOUTH CAROLINA...EASTERN
NORTH CAROLINA...AND PORTIONS OF THE PLAINS FROM NEBRASKA/IOWA
SOUTHWARD TO WEST TEXAS...
...SUMMARY... Isolated strong thunderstorms, a few severe, are
expected across portions of the Southeast Sunday. Isolated severe
thunderstorms should develop across the High Plains from west Texas
into western Iowa.
...Synopsis... A broad mid/upper trough will remain established
across Canada, with its center very near Hudson Bay. On the
southern periphery of this trough, a belt of enhanced mid-level
flow will exist across the northern tier of the CONUS throughout
the forecast period, while shifting slightly southward toward
the northern/central Plains late. Meanwhile, a cutoff low over
California will move very slowly eastward, and a shortwave ridge
will become established from the central Rockies southeastward into
west Texas. Another low-amplitude trough will shift eastward from
the Tennessee Valley toward the Mid-Atlantic during the afternoon.
At the surface, a weak low and trailing front will extend from the
Mid-Atlantic southwestward toward the northwestern Gulf of Mexico
south of Louisiana. This front will gradually become more diffuse
with westward extent. A lee trough will become established across
the High Plains, with return flow of a modified maritime airmass
becoming established along and east of this trough across the central
and southern Plains. A weak cold front will shift southward across
Nebraska and Iowa during the evening and overnight hours.
...North Florida through eastern North Carolina... Scattered
precipitation should be ongoing at the beginning of the forecast
period, which sheds some doubt on the magnitude of subsequent
destabilization for thunderstorm development later in the day.
Nevertheless, models consistently indicate weak to moderate
surface-based instability along and ahead of the approaching cold
front over the Carolinas during peak heating hours. This front,
and lift associated with the very weak mid-level wave should result
in scattered bands of forward-propagating thunderstorms during
the afternoon and early evening. Shear profiles are marginally
supportive of organization - and given steep low-level lapse rates
across the region, a few damaging wind gusts are expected near
linear convective segments. This threat should shift offshore late
in the forecast period.
...Nebraska, Iowa, eastern Kansas, and vicinity... Weak southerly
low-level flow will maintain a warm, moist airmass across this area
south of a cold front located over northern Nebraska during the
evening. Heating of the airmass beneath steep mid-level lapse rates
(8-8.5 deg C/km) should promote development of moderate instability
and weak inhibition during the afternoon, with convergence along
the front leading to scattered thunderstorm activity. Weak low-
to mid-level wind fields and marginal deep shear (around 30-35
knots) should limit the extent of any organization of thunderstorm
activity, although any upscale growth into linear segments along
the front should enhance the threat for damaging wind gusts given
the favorable thermodynamic environment. In the early evening,
modest strengthening of low-level flow may encourage some southward
propagation of storms into portions of eastern Kansas, though this
scenario is a bit uncertain.
...Western Kansas southward through western Texas... The scenario
for severe thunderstorm development is also a bit uncertain in
these areas. Convergence along a weak surface trough near the NM/TX
border northward into eastern Colorado may be enough for isolated
thunderstorm development to occur as surface heating beneath steep
lapse rates should be enough to remove any convective inhibition by
early afternoon. However, weak mid-level ridging will persist just
west of the region, and it is possible that subsidence aloft inhibits
convective development in large portions of the Marginal Risk area.
Nevertheless, models/CAMS indicate at least isolated thunderstorm
development and eastward movement of those isolated storms across
the risk area within an environment characterized by moderate to
strong instability (3000-4000 J/kg MUCAPE) and south-southeasterly
low-level flow veering to westerly in the mid-levels. This suggests
the potential for hail and wind (including isolated significant
severe) beneath convection that becomes mature during the afternoon
and early evening. Increasing low-level flow across the western
third of Texas (attendant to typical strengthening of the nocturnal
low-level jet in that area) may also increase the tornado threat with
any persistent convection during the 23-02Z timeframe. At this time,
it appears that any eastward persistence of convection will be tied
to possible upscale growth of convection into linear/convective
complexes as inhibition will likely become stronger with eastward
extent. Portions of this region may need an upgrade to Slight risk
if it becomes apparent that focused corridors of severe potential
will materialize beyond that currently depicted in model guidance.
...MAXIMUM RISK BY HAZARD... Tornado: 2% - Marginal Wind:
5% - Marginal Hail: 5% - Marginal
..Cook.. 05/04/2019
SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0217 PM CDT Sat May 04 2019
Valid 051200Z - 061200Z
The forecast remains on track, with no changes or additions needed.
Please see text below for more details.
..Squitieri.. 05/04/2019
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0107 AM CDT Sat May 04 2019/
...Synopsis... Mostly zonal mid-level flow will be present over
the CONUS on Sunday. A closed mid-level low will be approaching
the California coast through the day. Mid-level flow will start to
increase across the Southwest ahead of this feature. Temperatures
are expected to rise into the 80s and 90s with surface relative
humidities dropping below 15 percent. Daytime heating will lead to
deep mixing which will likely transport somewhat stronger mid-level
winds toward the surface. Mid-level winds are not expected to
be strong enough to support widespread critical conditions, but
elevated conditions may be possible across a large area as winds
increase to around 15 mph during the afternoon hours.
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...
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