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LU9DCE > ALERT 23.02.23 06:41z 114 Lines 3770 Bytes #999 (0) @ WW
BID : 5009_LU9DCE
Read: GUEST
Subj: STORM PREDICTION CENTER 23-FEB23
Path: HB9ON<IW8PGT<I3XTY<I0OJJ<EA2RCF<LU9DCE
Sent: 230223/0631Z 5009@LU9DCE.TOR.BA.ARG.SOAM LinBPQ6.0.23
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ESTACION DE PACKET RADIO - BUENOS AIRES (GF05OM)
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SPC - No watches are valid as of Thu Feb 23 02:01:02 UTC 2023
No watches are valid as of Thu Feb 23 02:01:02 UTC 2023.
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SPC MD 181
MD 0181 CONCERNING WINTER MIXED PRECIPITATION FOR PORTIONS OF
CENTRAL/EASTERN NEW YORK INTO NEW ENGLAND
Mesoscale Discussion 0181
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0759 PM CST Wed Feb 22 2023
Areas affected...Portions of central/eastern New York into New
England
Concerning...Winter mixed precipitation
Valid 230159Z - 230800Z
SUMMARY...Heavy snow rates around an inch per hour are possible
within the Adirondack vicinity into parts of New Hampshire and
Vermont. South of the heavier snowfall, freezing rain and sleet will
be possible.
DISCUSSION...A low-amplitude shortwave trough within the Upper
Midwest will continue to move northeast this evening. This feature
is expected to lose some amplitude/definition with time. Based on
KBUF and KTYX radar imagery, moderate to heavy snow is developing in
the vicinity of Lake Ontario as warm advection aloft increases with
the approach of the shortwave. The expectation is for this band of
precipitation to continue east and north over the next several
hours. Snowfall rates of around an inch per hour (with locally
higher rates up to 1.5 inches per hour) will be possible from
roughly the Adirondack region into New Hampshire/Vermont. Farther
south, surface observations and dual-pol analysis show a transition
zone to a mix of freezing rain and sleet. This transition zone
should shift east and north along with the strongest zone of warm
advection.
..Wendt.. 02/23/2023
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...
ATTN...WFO...GYX...BOX...BTV...ALY...BGM...BUF...
LAT...LON 44097607 44657493 44857273 44717148 44217105 43197151
42817168 42427230 42467431 42697581 43007712 43357724
44097607
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SPC Feb 23, 2023 0100 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook
SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0641 PM CST Wed Feb 22 2023
Valid 230100Z - 231200Z
...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...
...SUMMARY...
Severe threat appears minimal the rest of tonight.
...01z Update...
Remnants of earlier strong/severe convection are spreading across
the lower OH Valley this evening. This activity is associated with a
pronounced mid-level short-wave trough that is currently ejecting
across IL. Updraft intensities have waned considerably due to poor
instability, and convection should remain weak the rest of the
period. Even so, a few flashes of lightning may accompany some of
this activity, primarily within the warm advection zone from
northwest OH into upstate NY.
Upstream, very cold mid-level temperatures and steep lapse rates are
noted north of the jet from the Sierra Nevada Mountains into the
Great Basin. 00z soundings from VEF, REV, and OAK all exhibit
surface-based buoyancy, albeit weak with very low freezing levels. A
few flashes of lightning may be noted with the strongest updrafts in
this environment.
..Darrow.. 02/23/2023
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