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LU9DCE > ALERT 27.02.23 06:36z 573 Lines 16191 Bytes #999 (0) @ WW
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Subj: STORM PREDICTION CENTER 27-FEB23
Path: HB9ON<IW8PGT<I3XTY<I0OJJ<LU4ECL<LU9DCE
Sent: 230227/0631Z 5380@LU9DCE.TOR.BA.ARG.SOAM LinBPQ6.0.23
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ESTACION DE PACKET RADIO - BUENOS AIRES (GF05OM)
BOLETINES INFORMATIVOS PROGRAMADOS (BIP) PHP
Copyright 2022 - Eduardo A. Castillo
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SPC Severe Thunderstorm Watch 45
WW 45 SEVERE TSTM KS 270145Z - 270700Z
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
Severe Thunderstorm Watch Number 45
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
745 PM CST Sun Feb 26 2023
The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a
* Severe Thunderstorm Watch for portions of
South central and southeast Kansas
* Effective this Sunday night and Monday morning from 745 PM
until 100 AM CST.
* Primary threats include...
Scattered damaging winds and isolated significant gusts to 75
mph likely
Scattered large hail events to 1 inch in diameter possible
A tornado or two possible
SUMMARY...A squall line is in the process of consolidating from
Oklahoma into southern Kansas, and this line of storms will surge
east-northeastward through the overnight hours. Damaging winds up
to 75 mph and a tornado or two will be possible, especially with
embedded circulations/bowing segments.
The severe thunderstorm watch area is approximately along and 85
statute miles east and west of a line from 25 miles west northwest
of Emporia KS to 60 miles southeast of Wichita KS. For a complete
depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline update
(WOUS64 KWNS WOU5).
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
REMEMBER...A Severe Thunderstorm Watch means conditions are
favorable for severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area.
Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening
weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible
warnings. Severe thunderstorms can and occasionally do produce
tornadoes.
&&
OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 42...WW 43...WW 44...
AVIATION...A few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to
1 inch. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 65 knots. A few
cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 400. Mean storm motion vector
25060.
...Thompson
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SPC Tornado Watch 44
WW 44 TORNADO OK TX 270135Z - 270700Z
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
Tornado Watch Number 44
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
735 PM CST Sun Feb 26 2023
The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a
* Tornado Watch for portions of
Central and eastern Oklahoma
Extreme northwest Texas
* Effective this Sunday night and Monday morning from 735 PM
until 100 AM CST.
* Primary threats include...
A few tornadoes likely
Widespread damaging winds and isolated significant gusts to 90
mph likely
Scattered large hail events to 1.5 inches in diameter possible
SUMMARY...An intense squall line with embedded
supercells/mesovortices will surge east-northeastward into central
and northeast Oklahoma through midnight. The strongest embedded
circulations will be capable of producing tornadoes, while
widespread damaging winds of 70-90 mph can be expected with the
line.
The tornado watch area is approximately along and 95 statute miles
east and west of a line from 35 miles west northwest of Bartlesville
OK to 15 miles southeast of Ardmore OK. For a complete depiction of
the watch see the associated watch outline update (WOUS64 KWNS
WOU4).
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
REMEMBER...A Tornado Watch means conditions are favorable for
tornadoes and severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch
area. Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for
threatening weather conditions and listen for later statements
and possible warnings.
&&
OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 42...WW 43...
AVIATION...Tornadoes and a few severe thunderstorms with hail
surface and aloft to 1.5 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind
gusts to 80 knots. A few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 400. Mean
storm motion vector 25065.
...Thompson
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SPC Tornado Watch 43
WW 43 TORNADO KS OK TX 262130Z - 270300Z
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
Tornado Watch Number 43
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
330 PM CST Sun Feb 26 2023
The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a
* Tornado Watch for portions of
Far southwest Kansas
Western Oklahoma
Northwest Texas and eastern Panhandle
* Effective this Sunday afternoon and evening from 330 PM until
900 PM CST.
* Primary threats include...
A few tornadoes likely with a couple intense tornadoes possible
Widespread damaging winds and scattered significant gusts to 100
mph likely
Scattered large hail and isolated very large hail events to 2.5
inches in diameter possible
SUMMARY...Numerous supercells are expected to develop across the
central to eastern Texas Panhandles and spread rapidly
east-northeast across western Oklahoma and far southwest Kansas, as
they grow upscale into a fast-moving squall line.
The tornado watch area is approximately along and 75 statute miles
east and west of a line from 60 miles west northwest of Medicine
Lodge KS to 70 miles south southeast of Childress TX. For a complete
depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline update
(WOUS64 KWNS WOU3).
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
REMEMBER...A Tornado Watch means conditions are favorable for
tornadoes and severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch
area. Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for
threatening weather conditions and listen for later statements
and possible warnings.
&&
OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 42...
AVIATION...Tornadoes and a few severe thunderstorms with hail
surface and aloft to 2.5 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind
gusts to 85 knots. A few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 450. Mean
storm motion vector 24055.
...Grams
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SPC Severe Thunderstorm Watch 45 Status Reports
WW 0045 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 45
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 WSW HUT
TO 25 SW SLN.
..GOSS..02/27/23
ATTN...WFO...ICT...TOP...
STATUS REPORT FOR WS 45
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
KSC001-003-015-017-019-031-035-049-059-073-077-079-095-099-111-
113-115-125-133-139-155-173-191-205-207-270340-
KS
. KANSAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
ALLEN ANDERSON BUTLER
CHASE CHAUTAUQUA COFFEY
COWLEY ELK FRANKLIN
GREENWOOD HARPER HARVEY
KINGMAN LABETTE LYON
MCPHERSON MARION MONTGOMERY
NEOSHO OSAGE RENO
SEDGWICK SUMNER WILSON
WOODSON
THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE
REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL
INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES
CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES.
Read more
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SPC Tornado Watch 44 Status Reports
WW 0044 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 44
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 40 S SPS TO
10 E SPS TO 35 SSE CHK TO 10 ENE OKC TO 30 N OKC TO 5 NNW END TO
40 SSW ICT.
..LEITMAN..02/27/23
ATTN...WFO...TSA...OUN...
STATUS REPORT FOR WT 44
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
OKC001-005-013-019-021-027-029-035-037-041-047-049-053-061-063-
067-069-071-077-081-083-085-087-091-095-097-099-101-103-105-107-
109-111-113-115-117-119-121-123-125-131-133-135-137-143-145-147-
270440-
OK
. OKLAHOMA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
ADAIR ATOKA BRYAN
CARTER CHEROKEE CLEVELAND
COAL CRAIG CREEK
DELAWARE GARFIELD GARVIN
GRANT HASKELL HUGHES
JEFFERSON JOHNSTON KAY
LATIMER LINCOLN LOGAN
LOVE MCCLAIN MCINTOSH
MARSHALL MAYES MURRAY
MUSKOGEE NOBLE NOWATA
OKFUSKEE OKLAHOMA OKMULGEE
OSAGE OTTAWA PAWNEE
PAYNE PITTSBURG PONTOTOC
POTTAWATOMIE ROGERS SEMINOLE
SEQUOYAH STEPHENS TULSA
WAGONER WASHINGTON
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SPC Tornado Watch 43 Status Reports
WW 0043 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 43
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 65 NNW ABI
TO 10 SSW LTS TO 10 ESE CSM TO 50 N CSM TO 45 NNW P28.
..LEITMAN..02/27/23
ATTN...WFO...DDC...OUN...AMA...LUB...
STATUS REPORT FOR WT 43
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
KSC007-151-270340-
KS
. KANSAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
BARBER PRATT
OKC003-011-015-031-033-039-043-065-075-093-141-149-151-153-
270340-
OK
. OKLAHOMA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
ALFALFA BLAINE CADDO
COMANCHE COTTON CUSTER
DEWEY JACKSON KIOWA
MAJOR TILLMAN WASHITA
WOODS WOODWARD
TXC023-155-197-275-485-487-270340-
TX
. TEXAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
Read more
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SPC Severe Thunderstorm Watch 42 Status Reports
WW 0042 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 42
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 S DDC TO
20 E DDC TO 40 NE DDC TO 40 WSW RSL TO 35 SSE HLC.
FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0193
..BENTLEY..02/27/23
ATTN...WFO...DDC...
STATUS REPORT FOR WS 42
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
KSC047-051-145-165-185-270240-
KS
. KANSAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
EDWARDS ELLIS PAWNEE
RUSH STAFFORD
THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE
REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL
INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES
CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES.
Read more
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SPC MD 197
MD 0197 CONCERNING SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 45... FOR PORTIONS OF
SOUTH-CENTRAL AND SOUTHEASTERN KANSAS
Mesoscale Discussion 0197
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0900 PM CST Sun Feb 26 2023
Areas affected...portions of south-central and southeastern Kansas
Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 45...
Valid 270300Z - 270430Z
The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 45
continues.
SUMMARY...Risk for strong/damaging winds and a brief tornado will
continue across portions of south-central and into southeastern
Kansas over the next 1 to 2 hours.
DISCUSSION...Latest radar loop shows a complex band of convection
moving eastward across south-central Kansas west of Wichita, while a
second band of storms is developing about 50 miles farther east.
One rotating storm near the Kansas/Oklahoma border has weakened, but
additional/transient low-level circulations will likely continue.
Given the very strong background wind field, damaging gusts can be
expected locally. However, some stabilization has occurred within
the boundary layer, which should limit coverage and magnitude of the
risk going forward. Still, local gusts in the 60 to 70 MPH range
will remain possible, along with a brief tornado.
..Goss.. 02/27/2023
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...
ATTN...WFO...TOP...ICT...OUN...
LAT...LON 37079824 37829824 38469797 38599723 38759578 37919586
36989696 36999788 37079824
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SPC Center Public Severe Weather Outlook (PWO)
Public Severe Weather Outlook
PUBLIC SEVERE WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1034 AM CST SUN FEB 26 2023
...Severe thunderstorms expected over parts of the southern Plains
this evening into tonight...
* LOCATIONS...
Western, central, and northern Oklahoma
Far northwest Texas
* HAZARDS...
Widespread damaging winds, some hurricane force
A few intense tornadoes
Isolated large hail up to baseball size
* SUMMARY...
A derecho is forecast with widespread damaging winds and
embedded swaths of significant severe gusts from 80-110 mph,
centered on parts of Oklahoma this evening into tonight.
Embedded tornadoes are anticipated as well, with the greatest
potential for strong (EF2-EF3) tornadoes across southwest
Oklahoma this evening.
Preparedness actions...
Review your severe weather safety procedures for the possibility
of dangerous weather today. Stay tuned to NOAA Weather Radio,
weather.gov, or other media for watches and warnings. A watch
means that conditions are favorable for severe thunderstorms
over the next several hours. If a severe thunderstorm warning is
issued for your area, move to a place of safety, ideally in an
interior room on the lowest floor of a sturdy building.
&&
..Grams.. 02/26/2023
Read more
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SPC Feb 27, 2023 0100 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook
SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0659 PM CST Sun Feb 26 2023
Valid 270100Z - 271200Z
...THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PORTIONS OF
WEST-CENTRAL INTO NORTHEASTERN OKLAHOMA...
...SUMMARY...
A serial derecho event remains likely across portions of the
southern Plains into tonight. Widespread damaging winds and embedded
swaths of significant severe gusts from 80-110 mph may still occur,
mainly over parts of Oklahoma this evening. Embedded tornadoes are
also possible, a couple of which may be strong, especially over
southwest Oklahoma.
...Synopsis...
A 990 mb surface low over southwestern KS will continue to deepen as
a negatively tilted mid-level trough with a 110+ kt jet streak
ejects into the southern Plains tonight. Ongoing strong to severe
thunderstorms immediately ahead of a Pacific cold front will
continue to increase in coverage and intensity as they progress
rapidly eastward across central KS/northern TX into southwest MO
this evening. Though buoyancy may be modest, impressive shear
profiles and deep-layer ascent will compensate to support a
potentially widespread severe threat.
...Southern Plains this evening into tonight...
The aforementioned band of convection across the southern High
Plains continues to intensify, with a mix of linear segments and
semi-discrete supercells noted across the eastern TX Panhandle into
far western OK and southwest KS. Multiple convective gusts (some
around hurricane force) have already been observed, along with a
couple of possible brief tornadoes in southwestern KS. 23Z
mesoanalysis shows a 50+ kt low-level jet currently overspreading
western OK ahead of the ongoing storms, contributing to both an
influx of moisture and impressive deep-layer/low-level shear values.
Though the boundary layer is relatively cool across portions of
northern TX into central KS, continued advection of 60+ F surface
dewpoints beneath 8+ C/km mid-level lapse rates will foster 500-1000
J/kg MLCAPE. Coincident with the buoyancy axis are strong, veering
vertical wind profiles, with 23Z RAP forecast soundings and regional
VADs showing very large and curved hodographs and widespread 500+
m2/s2 0-3 km SRH. As such, any supercells that can ingest
surface-based buoyant parcels could become tornadic, with a couple
of strong tornadoes possible. The best chance for strong tornadoes
would be in western Oklahoma, where low-level moisture is richest.
As the evening progresses, storms should rapidly merge/grow upscale
into a QLCS, potentially supporting a serial derecho event. Given
75+ kt flow below 1000 m AGL, mechanical downward momentum transport
should support numerous to potentially widespread severe wind gusts
through the evening from central KS into central and southern OK.
The latest high resolution guidance consensus continues to depict
LEWPs/possible meso-gamma vortices embedded within the QLCS,
especially across west-central OK into north-central OK in the
02-04Z (8-10 PM CST) time frame. In addition to embedded QLCS
tornadoes, the combination of downward momentum transport and
channeled flow associated with LEWPs/meso-gamma vortices may support
several significant-severe wind gusts, a few of which may exceed 85
mph. Though the QLCS may peak in intensity before crossing the I-35
corridor and outpace the surface-based warm sector, intense
low-level wind profiles/dynamic forcing should continue to support a
severe wind threat into northeast OK/southwest MO through tonight.
..Squitieri.. 02/27/2023
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