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LU9DCE > ALERT 28.02.23 23:26z 190 Lines 6943 Bytes #999 (0) @ WW
BID : 5070_LU9DCE
Read: GUEST
Subj: STORM PREDICTION CENTER 24-FEB23
Path: HB9ON<IW0QNL<VE2PKT<W0ARP<LU9DCE
Sent: 230224/0630Z 5070@LU9DCE.TOR.BA.ARG.SOAM LinBPQ6.0.23
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ESTACION DE PACKET RADIO - BUENOS AIRES (GF05OM)
BOLETINES INFORMATIVOS PROGRAMADOS (BIP) PHP
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SPC - No watches are valid as of Fri Feb 24 00:43:02 UTC 2023
No watches are valid as of Fri Feb 24 00:43:02 UTC 2023.
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SPC MD 185
MD 0185 CONCERNING FREEZING RAIN FOR PORTIONS OF UPSTATE NEW YORK INTO
VERMONT...NEW HAMPSHIRE...AND MASSACHUSETTS
Mesoscale Discussion 0185
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0554 PM CST Thu Feb 23 2023
Areas affected...portions of Upstate New York into Vermont...New
Hampshire...and Massachusetts
Concerning...Freezing rain
Valid 232354Z - 240400Z
SUMMARY...Freezing rain, along with an occasional wintry mix, should
continue into the the evening hours across portions of New England.
Occasional bouts of ice accretion rates of 0.06 in/3 hrs are
possible in spots.
DISCUSSION...A 1010 mb surface low continues to traverse the Hudson
Valley while advancing to the Atlantic seaboard as an impressive
150+ kt 300 mb jet streak overspreads northern New England,
encouraging deep-layer ascent across Upstate NY, where a shield of
moderate precipitation has already developed. Current surface
observations indicate some light ice glazing has already begun
across portions of New England, with an expected upward trend in
heavier ice accretion rates expected into the evening hours.
The approach of the aforementioned, intense upper jet streak is
promoting a low-level response in the form of strong 925-850 mb
warm-air advection across parts of New England, contributing to both
deep-layer ascent and near/above freezing low-level temperatures
overspreading below-freezing surface temperatures. While surface
temperatures may approach the freezing mark in some locations
tonight, the surface should remain cold enough to support some ice
accretion during the heavier bouts of precipitation. The 12Z HREF
guidance indicates that the best chance for .06 in/3 hr or greater
ice accretion rates would be from east-central NY into MA, where the
deepest layer of above-freezing low-level temperatures should
reside. Farther north into northern New England and in the higher
terrain areas, a wintry mix of freezing rain and sleet is also
possible. Either way, potentially hazardous travel conditions are
expected across much of central New England now into the Midnight
(EST) time frame.
..Squitieri.. 02/23/2023
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...
ATTN...WFO...GYX...BOX...BTV...ALY...BGM...BUF...
LAT...LON 43917585 43977583 44317463 44337289 44117170 43697101
43077071 42467078 42177125 42107231 42117296 42357380
42517427 42907519 43227584 43917585
Read more
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SPC MD 184
MD 0184 CONCERNING HEAVY SNOW FOR PORTIONS OF NORTHWESTERN CALIFORNIA
Mesoscale Discussion 0184
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0509 PM CST Thu Feb 23 2023
Areas affected...portions of northwestern California
Concerning...Heavy snow
Valid 232309Z - 240515Z
SUMMARY...Heavy snow should continue to gradually become more
widespread across portions of northwestern California, with up to 1
inch/hr snowfall rates possible as low as 1000 ft in elevation this
evening.
DISCUSSION...A stacked surface-500 mb low resides just offshore of
the Pacific northwest, promoting a deep westerly fetch of moisture
which is contributing to a near saturated troposphere (per 21Z RAP
forecast soundings). The stacked low should continue to gradually
migrate south through the night, with at least one embedded
mid-level impulse expected to precede the arrival of the low. Some
of the latest deterministic guidance shows this impulse
overspreading northern CA over the next few hours, which should
increase deep-layer ascent over the region. 23Z mesoanalysis hints
at some 700 mb warm-air advection already taking place along the
northern CA shoreline, with a couple of surface observations
currently showing heavy snow near the CA/OR border, hinting at the
potential arrival of the mid-level impulse.
While surface temperatures are currently above freezing across
several low-terrain areas, continued cooling this evening will
support sub-freezing vertical profiles and associated accumulating
snowfall potential in lower-terrain areas. Surface-500 mb lapse
rates should remain at or above 8 C/km, that combined with the
relatively rich moisture, may also foster 100+ J/kg MUCAPE. Stronger
deep-layer mechanical lift, and ascent driven by potential
convective processes, should encourage periods of heavy snow through
the evening hours. 1 inch/hr snowfall rates are most likely in the
higher-terrain areas, at least initially. However, some of the
heavier snowfall rates may occur over lower-terrain areas, perhaps
as low as 1000 ft in elevation, with dangerous travel conditions
possible into tonight.
..Squitieri.. 02/23/2023
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...
ATTN...WFO...MFR...STO...EKA...
LAT...LON 41752446 42082420 42132383 41722323 40202275 39812292
39582325 39552361 39502391 41752446
Read more
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SPC Feb 24, 2023 0100 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook
SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0636 PM CST Thu Feb 23 2023
Valid 240100Z - 241200Z
...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...
...SUMMARY...
Severe thunderstorms are not forecast tonight.
...01z Update...
No changes are warranted from previous forecast.
Dominant upper ridge centered near south FL will maintain moist
onshore trajectories across the Gulf States. However, in the absence
of meaningful short-wave activity, weak low-level flow/convergence
will likely inhibit more than isolated-scattered, mostly weak,
showers from portions of northern MS into the southern Appalachians.
A few flashes of lightning may accompany the deepest updrafts.
Across the western US, strong upper trough is located near the CA
Coast. Very cold mid-level temperatures, low freezing levels, and
steep lapse rates are noted immediately ahead of this feature. 00z
sounding at OAK samples this environment well with around 300 J/kg
SBCAPE. Even REV exhibits almost 200 J/kg SBCAPE despite a surface
temperature of 25F, as 500mb temperature is -36C. Scattered showers
will persist ahead of the trough tonight and lightning may be noted
with the strongest updrafts.
..Darrow.. 02/24/2023
Read more
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