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LU9DCE > ALERT 03.03.23 06:31z 212 Lines 8133 Bytes #999 (0) @ WW
BID : 5696_LU9DCE
Read: GUEST
Subj: STORM PREDICTION CENTER 03-MAR23
Path: HB9ON<IW8PGT<I3XTY<I0OJJ<EA2RCF<LU9DCE
Sent: 230303/0630Z 5696@LU9DCE.TOR.BA.ARG.SOAM LinBPQ6.0.23
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ESTACION DE PACKET RADIO - BUENOS AIRES (GF05OM)
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SPC Severe Thunderstorm Watch 58
WW 58 SEVERE TSTM TX 030145Z - 030600Z
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
Severe Thunderstorm Watch Number 58
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
745 PM CST Thu Mar 2 2023
The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a
* Severe Thunderstorm Watch for portions of
Southeast Texas
* Effective this Thursday night from 745 PM until Midnight CST.
* Primary threats include...
Scattered damaging wind gusts to 70 mph likely
Isolated large hail events to 1 inch in diameter possible
A tornado or two possible
SUMMARY...A line of thunderstorms will spread eastward this evening,
while posing a threat for mainly damaging winds.
The severe thunderstorm watch area is approximately along and 50
statute miles north and south of a line from 45 miles south of
Lufkin TX to 45 miles south southwest of College Station TX. For a
complete depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline
update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU8).
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
REMEMBER...A Severe Thunderstorm Watch means conditions are
favorable for severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area.
Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening
weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible
warnings. Severe thunderstorms can and occasionally do produce
tornadoes.
0-1-km shear increased from around 20 to 30 kts with
0-1-km SRH around 400 J/kg at both sites. These favorable kinematics
have helped support surface-based QLCS maintenance, and severe
hazards, despite gradually increasing MLCIN. The MLCIN increase
appears to be driven by increasing 850 mb temperatures, evident in
RAP forecast profiles and supported by recent 00z radiosonde
observations (e.g., LCH and vicinity).
Some uncertainty exists regarding convective evolution during the
next few hours. In the short term, a steadily strengthening
low-level jet is expected to help offset larger MLCIN, supporting a
continued severe threat in WW 55/56/58. Further severe weather
production downstream in the delineated area is possible given
increasingly favorable kinematics, but might be somewhat tempered if
temperatures aloft continue to increase and storm coverage
diminishes (as depicted in latest HRRR/WoFS guidance). Current radar
observations of a surging cold pool and diminishing reflectivity
structures support continued overall weakening of the system.
Convective trends will continue to be monitored for a possible WW
issuance downstream.
..Flournoy/Gleason.. 03/03/2023
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...
ATTN...WFO...LCH...HGX...
LAT...LON 29829236 29609359 29359527 29389620 29659652 30269636
30819605 30959515 31019424 31129354 31279300 31319250
31179197 30779186 30169188 29829236
Read more
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SPC Center Public Severe Weather Outlook (PWO)
Public Severe Weather Outlook
PUBLIC SEVERE WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1039 AM CST THU MAR 02 2023
...Severe thunderstorms expected over parts of the Select a General
Area this afternoon and tonight...
* LOCATIONS...
North central and northeast Texas
Central and southern Arkansas
Southeast Oklahoma
Northern Louisiana
Northwest Mississippi
Southwest Tennessee
* HAZARDS...
Widespread damaging winds, some hurricane force
A few intense tornadoes
Widespread large hail, some baseball size
* SUMMARY...
Severe thunderstorms with very large hail to the size of
baseballs or larger, significant thunderstorm gusts to 75 mph,
and a couple of strong tornadoes are likely from north Texas
this afternoon into the ArkLaTex through tonight.
Preparedness actions...
Review your severe weather safety procedures for the possibility
of dangerous weather today. Stay tuned to NOAA Weather Radio,
weather.gov, or other media for watches and warnings. A watch
means that conditions are favorable for severe thunderstorms
over the next several hours. If a severe thunderstorm warning is
issued for your area, move to a place of safety, ideally in an
interior room on the lowest floor of a sturdy building.
&&
Read more
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SPC Mar 3, 2023 0100 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook
SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0700 PM CST Thu Mar 02 2023
Valid 030100Z - 031200Z
...THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF
THE SOUTHERN PLAINS...ARKLATEX...AND LOWER TO MID MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY...
...SUMMARY...
Severe thunderstorms with very large hail to the size of baseballs
or larger, significant thunderstorm gusts to 75 mph, and tornadoes
with a few strong tornadoes are likely from northeast Texas into the
ArkLaTex this evening through tonight.
...Southern Plains/Arklatex/Lower to Mid Mississippi Valley...
An upper-level trough is currently evident on water vapor extending
from West Texas southward into northern Mexico. An associated 90 to
105 knot mid-level jet is located in the base of the trough. This
feature will move northeastward into the lower to mid Mississippi
Valley and accelerate substantially tonight. Ahead of the jet, a
moist airmass is in place from central and east Texas into the lower
Mississippi Valley. A line of severe thunderstorms is ongoing from
near the Red River extending south-southwestward into the Texas Hill
Country. MLCAPE ahead of the line is estimated by the RAP near 2000
J/kg. This combined with 0-6 km shear near 70 knots and 700-500 mb
lapse rates near 8.0 C/km will be favorable for embedded supercells
and bowing segments within the stronger parts of the line.
Supercells will be capable of large hail and wind damage. Swaths of
wind damage will be likely with bowing segments. Winds of greater
than 70 knots will be possible along the stronger parts of the line.
A tornado threat will also exist with the stronger supercells
embedded in the line.
Further to the east in the northeast Texas, southern Arkansas, and
far northern Louisiana, isolated discrete rotating storms are
ongoing. These supercells will be associated with threat for
tornadoes, wind damage and hail. The tornado threat is expected to
increase as the cells interact with a warm front extending
west-to-east across southern Arkansas. Surface dewpoints near and to
the south of the front are in the mid to upper 60s F. As the
mid-level jet approaches later this evening, forecast soundings
rapidly increase 0-3 km storm relative helicities into the 500 to
700 m2/s2 range. The magnitude of the low-level shear will be
favorable for tornadoes. The first round of discrete cells will
likely move northeastward into central Arkansas become elevated. A
second round of discrete cells could form ahead of the squall line
in northeast Texas and move across the ArkLaTex late this evening.
If this were to occur, a substantial threat for tornadoes will be
likely. A few strong tornadoes could develop across far northern
Louisiana and southern Arkansas as the low and mid-level jets become
coupled later this evening.
The squall line will move across the ArkLaTex from late this evening
into early tonight, approaching the Mississippi River around 09Z.
After this time, a severe threat is expected to continue within the
line, and with cells that form ahead of the line, from parts of
central Mississippi northward into far western Tennessee. Wind
damage, hail and a few tornadoes are expected late in the period.
..Broyles.. 03/03/2023
Read more
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