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LU9DCE > ALERT 05.05.19 11:31z 81 Lines 4418 Bytes #999 (0) @ WW
BID : 23530_LU9DCE
Read: GUEST
Subj: Storm Prediction Center 05 05
Path: HB9ON<IW0QNL<JH4XSY<N3HYM<NS2B<VA7RBP<VE7MOV<LU9DCE
Sent: 190505/1127Z 23530@LU9DCE.TOR.BA.ARG.SOAM LinBPQ6.0.18
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ESTACION DE PACKET RADIO - BUENOS AIRES (GF05OM)
BOLETINES INFORMATIVOS PROGRAMADOS (BIP)
28.125 USB @ 300 BAUD --- HELLOCODELINUX@GMAIL.COM
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SPC 0730Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0146
AM CDT Sun May 05 2019
Valid 071200Z - 081200Z
...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS...
...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are expected across the southern
Plains Tuesday. Hail, wind, and tornadoes are possible.
...Southern Plains...
Late-evening model guidance is in general agreement regarding the
evolution of a pronounced upper trough as it migrates toward the
southern Plains day3. 500mb speed max is forecast to eject across
the northern Baja Peninsula Monday then into the TX South Plains
Tuesday evening. While models are in agreement in the large-scale
upper features, considerable disagreement exists in the placement of
a notable surface front. NAM suggests surface boundary will sag into
western OK/TX Panhandle prior to the influence of the upper trough.
ECMWF/GFS maintain lower surface pressure across the High Plains
region and there are compelling reasons for both solutions. Have
opted for the southern-most scenario based on expected precipitation
across the central Plains during the day2 period and the possibility
for cooler temperatures across this region.
Early in the day3 period, a significant disturbance is expected to
eject across east TX. This feature will likely generate substantial
amount of convection/precipitation that may retard northward
advancement of higher-PW air mass into OK. For these reasons it
appears primary zone for convective initiation will be across the
southern High Plains where strong boundary-layer heating should
weaken the cap sufficiently for thunderstorm development along
the dry line. Timing of the approaching trough favors western
development. Supercells are expected to form by late afternoon south
of the synoptic front then spread east as 500mb speed max ejects into
northwest TX after midnight. While NAM forecast dew points may be
a bit too high, moderate instability should exist just east of the
dryline for robust convection. This activity should spread/develop
east during the overnight hours with an attendant threat for all
severe hazards.
..Darrow.. 05/05/2019
Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0238 AM CDT Sun May 05 2019
Valid 081200Z - 131200Z
...DISCUSSION... Significant severe is expected during the first
few days of the medium-range period.
Models are in general agreement in regards to the evolution of
a strong southwestern US trough as it ejects into the middle
of the country. Strong convection will likely be noted across
the southern Plains during the day3 period and the degree of
convective overturning may partially influence severe development
later Wednesday. Substantial 500mb flow/short-wave trough will eject
across OK/north TX during the afternoon and this feature is expected
to induce scattered severe ahead of a progressive dryline. Ample
buoyancy, strong shear, and large-scale support suggest severe
supercells are possible. This feature will eject into the Midwest
later day5 and scattered severe should be noted along/ahead of a cold
front as it surges across IL/MO/Arklatex region, ultimately spreading
into the OH/TN Valley and Mid-South. Beyond day5, greatest convective
threat will focus across lower latitudes where shear/forcing may
eventually lead to robust updrafts as heights lower late in the
period. However, predictability is a bit too low to warrant probs
beyond day5.
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The one L lama, he's a priest The two L llama, he's a beast And I will bet
my silk pyjama There isn't any three L lllama.
-- O. Nash, to which a fire chief replied that occasionally
his department responded to something like a "three L lllama."
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