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LU9DCE > ALERT 08.03.23 06:36z 114 Lines 3982 Bytes #999 (0) @ WW
BID : 6063_LU9DCE
Read: GUEST
Subj: STORM PREDICTION CENTER 08-MAR23
Path: HB9ON<IW8PGT<I3XTY<I0OJJ<LU4ECL<LU9DCE
Sent: 230308/0631Z 6063@LU9DCE.TOR.BA.ARG.SOAM LinBPQ6.0.23
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ESTACION DE PACKET RADIO - BUENOS AIRES (GF05OM)
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SPC - No watches are valid as of Wed Mar 8 03:32:01 UTC 2023
No watches are valid as of Wed Mar 8 03:32:01 UTC 2023.
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SPC MD 258
MD 0258 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY FOR PARTS OF
NORTHERN TX AND SOUTHERN OK
Mesoscale Discussion 0258
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0929 PM CST Tue Mar 07 2023
Areas affected...Parts of northern TX and southern OK
Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely
Valid 080329Z - 080500Z
Probability of Watch Issuance...5 percent
SUMMARY...A few cells capable of producing marginally-severe hail
have developed across western north Texas. A watch is not
anticipated.
DISCUSSION...A few cells have developed across western north Texas,
near the location of a stationary front at 850 mb, per mesoanalysis.
The 00z OUN RAOB indicates these storms are likely elevated, rooted
around the 850 mb level. The environment is characterized by modest
buoyancy (~1000 J/kg MUCAPE) and strong deep-layer shear (~65 kts of
effective bulk shear) with a largely straight hodograph above the
stable layer. Given this environment, expect a few marginally-severe
hail reports out of the stronger cells as they translate to the
east-northeast with time. A watch is not anticipated at this time,
however trends will be monitored.
..Supinie/Thompson.. 03/08/2023
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...
ATTN...WFO...FWD...OUN...SJT...LUB...MAF...
LAT...LON 33730079 34309912 34559852 34689740 34679696 34499651
34099620 33779644 33239759 32859928 32750111 32910148
33250149 33410126 33730079
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SPC Mar 8, 2023 0100 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook
SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0655 PM CST Tue Mar 07 2023
Valid 080100Z - 081200Z
...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF
THE SOUTHERN PLAINS...
...SUMMARY...
Thunderstorms associated with marginally severe hail will be
possible tonight across parts of west and north Texas into Oklahoma.
...Southern Plains...
Latest water vapor imagery shows a subtle shortwave trough embedded
in west-southwest mid-level flow over the southern High Plains. This
feature will continue to move east-northeastward across the southern
and central Plains this evening. At the surface, a quasi-stationary
front is located in north-central Texas extending northeastward into
southeast Oklahoma. Low-level flow will steadily increase along and
to the north of this front. Thunderstorms are expected to develop
late this evening along the northern edge of enhanced low-level flow
from West Texas into central and eastern Oklahoma. The 00Z sounding
from Oklahoma City has MUCAPE near 1000 J/kg, and this instability
should be maintained or could slightly increase toward late evening.
The instability combined with effective shear near 50 knots should
be enough for marginally severe hail with the stronger updrafts. The
storms over West Texas into west-central Oklahoma will remain
elevated, but a few storms further east could become near
surface-based. For this reason, a marginal wind-damage threat is
also expected to develop after midnight in eastern parts of
southeast Oklahoma and northeast Texas.
..Broyles.. 03/08/2023
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