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LU9DCE > ALERT 24.03.23 08:21z 398 Lines 11459 Bytes #999 (0) @ WW
BID : 7051_LU9DCE
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Subj: STORM PREDICTION CENTER 24-MAR23
Path: HB9ON<IW0QNL<IZ3LSV<I0OJJ<LU4ECL<LU9DCE
Sent: 230324/0631Z 7051@LU9DCE.TOR.BA.ARG.SOAM LinBPQ6.0.23
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ESTACION DE PACKET RADIO - BUENOS AIRES (GF05OM)
BOLETINES INFORMATIVOS PROGRAMADOS (BIP) PHP
Copyright 2022 - Eduardo A. Castillo
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SPC Severe Thunderstorm Watch 72
WW 72 SEVERE TSTM AR MO 232045Z - 240400Z
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
Severe Thunderstorm Watch Number 72
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
345 PM CDT Thu Mar 23 2023
The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a
* Severe Thunderstorm Watch for portions of
Northern Arkansas
Southern Missouri
* Effective this Thursday afternoon and evening from 345 PM until
1100 PM CDT.
* Primary threats include...
Scattered large hail and isolated very large hail events to 2
inches in diameter possible
Scattered damaging wind gusts to 65 mph possible
A tornado or two possible
SUMMARY...Storms will continue to develop across the region and
intensify through late afternoon and early evening, with these
storms focused along and to the north of a southeastward-moving cold
front. Large hail should be the most common severe hazard (aside
from locally heavy rainfall), but locally damaging winds and perhaps
a brief tornado could also occur with any storms near/south of the
cold front.
The severe thunderstorm watch area is approximately along and 65
statute miles north and south of a line from 20 miles north
northwest of Fayetteville AR to 40 miles southeast of Fort Leonard
Wood MO. For a complete depiction of the watch see the associated
watch outline update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU2).
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
REMEMBER...A Severe Thunderstorm Watch means conditions are
favorable for severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area.
Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening
weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible
warnings. Severe thunderstorms can and occasionally do produce
tornadoes.
&&
OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 71...
AVIATION...A few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to
2 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 55 knots. A
few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 500. Mean storm motion vector
24035.
...Guyer
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SPC Severe Thunderstorm Watch 71
WW 71 SEVERE TSTM OK TX 232010Z - 240400Z
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
Severe Thunderstorm Watch Number 71
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
310 PM CDT Thu Mar 23 2023
The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a
* Severe Thunderstorm Watch for portions of
Oklahoma
Western North Texas
* Effective this Thursday afternoon and evening from 310 PM until
1100 PM CDT.
* Primary threats include...
Scattered large hail likely with isolated very large hail events
to 2.5 inches in diameter possible
Scattered damaging wind gusts to 65 mph possible
A tornado or two possible
SUMMARY...Strong to severe thunderstorms will continue to develop
near/just north of a southeastward-moving cold front. Large hail
will be the most common hazard.
The severe thunderstorm watch area is approximately along and 60
statute miles north and south of a line from 80 miles southwest of
Altus OK to 45 miles east northeast of Muskogee OK. For a complete
depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline update
(WOUS64 KWNS WOU1).
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
REMEMBER...A Severe Thunderstorm Watch means conditions are
favorable for severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area.
Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening
weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible
warnings. Severe thunderstorms can and occasionally do produce
tornadoes.
&&
AVIATION...A few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to
2.5 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 55 knots. A
few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 500. Mean storm motion vector
24035.
...Guyer
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SPC Severe Thunderstorm Watch 72 Status Reports
WW 0072 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 72
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 15 NNW FYV
TO 40 SE TBN.
REMAINING VALID PORTION OF WW 72 MAY BE ALLOWED TO EXPIRE AT 24/04Z.
..KERR..03/24/23
ATTN...WFO...LZK...TSA...SGF...
STATUS REPORT FOR WS 72
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
ARC005-009-015-033-047-071-087-089-101-131-143-240400-
AR
. ARKANSAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
BAXTER BOONE CARROLL
CRAWFORD FRANKLIN JOHNSON
MADISON MARION NEWTON
SEBASTIAN WASHINGTON
MOC067-091-149-153-203-213-240400-
MO
. MISSOURI COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
DOUGLAS HOWELL OREGON
OZARK SHANNON TANEY
THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE
REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL
INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES
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SPC Severe Thunderstorm Watch 71 Status Reports
WW 0071 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 71
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 55 S CDS TO
30 WSW FYV.
PARTS OF REMAINING VALID PORTION OF WW MAY BE INCLUDED IN A NEW
WW PRIOR TO 24/04Z.
..KERR..03/24/23
ATTN...WFO...TSA...OUN...SJT...LUB...
STATUS REPORT FOR WS 71
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
OKC001-019-021-029-033-049-061-063-067-069-077-079-085-091-095-
099-101-121-123-135-137-240400-
OK
. OKLAHOMA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
ADAIR CARTER CHEROKEE
COAL COTTON GARVIN
HASKELL HUGHES JEFFERSON
JOHNSTON LATIMER LE FLORE
LOVE MCINTOSH MARSHALL
MURRAY MUSKOGEE PITTSBURG
PONTOTOC SEQUOYAH STEPHENS
TXC009-023-077-207-269-275-433-447-485-487-240400-
TX
. TEXAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
ARCHER BAYLOR CLAY
HASKELL KING KNOX
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SPC MD 317
MD 0317 CONCERNING SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 71... FOR NORTHWEST TX
INTO SOUTHERN OK
Mesoscale Discussion 0317
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0932 PM CDT Thu Mar 23 2023
Areas affected...Northwest TX into southern OK
Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 71...
Valid 240232Z - 240430Z
The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 71
continues.
SUMMARY...The risk of large hail continues with ongoing supercells
from northwest TX into south-central OK (across Severe Thunderstorm
Watch 71). Trends are being monitored for an additional watch
issuance for parts of the area tonight.
DISCUSSION...Splitting supercells capable of large hail are ongoing
from northwest TX into portions of south-central OK -- north of a
quasi-stationary surface boundary draped through the area. While
most of these storms are likely elevated atop the frontal surface,
60+ kt of cloud-layer shear (per regional VWP data) characterized by
long/mostly straight hodographs is still supporting loosely
organized splitting supercell structures. During the next few hours,
this activity will generally track east-northeastward across
southern OK with a continued risk of large hail. It is unclear if
this continued activity will warrant an additional watch issuance
upon the 04Z expiration of Severe Thunderstorm Watch 71, though
convective trends will be monitored.
..Weinman/Thompson.. 03/24/2023
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...
ATTN...WFO...TSA...FWD...OUN...SJT...
LAT...LON 34219920 34509878 34889757 35039682 35089615 34909561
34499560 34189593 34049658 33779790 33209918 33209974
33519989 33839964 34219920
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SPC MD 316
MD 0316 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE FOR EDWARDS
PLATEAU INTO NEARBY RIO GRANDE VALLEY
Mesoscale Discussion 0316
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0913 PM CDT Thu Mar 23 2023
Areas affected...Edwards Plateau into nearby Rio Grande Valley
Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible
Valid 240213Z - 240515Z
Probability of Watch Issuance...40 percent
SUMMARY...Increasing thunderstorm development appears possible
through 10 PM-Midnight, some of which may pose a risk for producing
large hail. It is not yet certain that a severe weather watch will
be needed, but trends are being monitored for this possibility.
DISCUSSION...Boundary-layer destabilization appears to be ongoing
within a narrow corridor along the dryline, as the leading edge of
cooling aloft begins to overtake it, east/southeast of Midland into
the Rio Grande Valley to the northwest of Del Rio. One storm has
already initiated and slowly intensified during the past hour or
two, and additional development seems increasingly likely by 03-05Z,
in response to further gradual height falls and cooling aloft
associated with the approach of large-scale mid-level upstream
troughing.
Although forecast soundings to the south of the initial storm
suggest that warm, dry layers in the lower/mid troposphere are still
suppressing convection, it appears that strengthening southerly flow
(to 30+ kt around 850 mb) will be accompanied by further moistening
in the next few hours. Coinciding with strengthening forcing for
ascent, the environment may become supportive of at least scattered
intensifying thunderstorms, including supercell structures posing a
risk for large hail.
..Kerr/Thompson.. 03/24/2023
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...
ATTN...WFO...EWX...SJT...MAF...
LAT...LON 31190192 32840052 32389989 30870053 29620102 29550209
30580244 31190192
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SPC Mar 24, 2023 0100 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook
SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0746 PM CDT Thu Mar 23 2023
Valid 240100Z - 241200Z
...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE SOUTHERN
PLAINS TO THE OZARKS AND INTO THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY...
...SUMMARY...
Severe thunderstorms capable of large hail will be possible into the
overnight hours from the Ozarks to the Lower Ohio River Valley. All
severe weather hazards will be possible across portions of northern
Texas and southeastern Oklahoma with primarily a severe hail threat
farther south into Texas along the dryline.
Ongoing supercells across southern Missouri have had periodic large
hail/damaging wind reports. These supercells may persist northeast
across southeast Missouri, southern Illinois and far southern
Indiana since the downstream environment is as favorable as the
current environment. Expanded the slight risk northeast to cover
this threat through the late evening/early overnight hours.
See Mesoscale Discussion 315 for additional information.
Otherwise, only minimal changes were made to the categorical area.
The 5% tornado and 15% severe wind probabilities were expanded
across western Arkansas, southeast Oklahoma and northern Texas. Mid
to upper 60s dewpoints will advect into this region after midnight
which may actually increase instability early Friday morning.
Therefore, the increasing instability and low-level shear across
this region is sufficient to support 5% tornado and 15% wind
probabilities early Friday morning.
..Bentley.. 03/24/2023
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