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LU9DCE > ALERT 07.05.19 07:03z 339 Lines 17084 Bytes #999 (0) @ WW
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Subj: Storm Prediction Center 07 05
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ESTACION DE PACKET RADIO - BUENOS AIRES (GF05OM)
BOLETINES INFORMATIVOS PROGRAMADOS (BIP)
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WW 143 SEVERE TSTM KS 070445Z - 070900Z
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED Severe Thunderstorm Watch
Number 143 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1145 PM CDT Mon
May 6 2019
The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a
* Severe Thunderstorm Watch for portions of southeastern Kansas
* Effective this Monday night and Tuesday morning from 1145 PM
until 400 AM CDT.
* Primary threats include... Scattered damaging wind gusts to 70
mph possible Isolated large hail events to 1.5 inches in diameter
possible
SUMMARY...Strong to severe storms with damaging wind and isolated
large hail are expected to continue through portions of southeast
Kansas into the early morning.
The severe thunderstorm watch area is approximately along and 45
statute miles north and south of a line from 35 miles west southwest
of Hutchinson KS to 45 miles south southeast of Emporia KS. For a
complete depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline
update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU3).
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
REMEMBER...A Severe Thunderstorm Watch means conditions are
favorable for severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area.
Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening
weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible
warnings. Severe thunderstorms can and occasionally do produce
tornadoes.
OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...This severe thunderstorm watch replaces
tornado watch number 140. Watch number 140 will not be in effect
after 1145 PM CDT. CONTINUE...WW 141...WW 142...
AVIATION...A few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft
to 1.5 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 60
knots. A few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 500. Mean storm motion
vector 28035.
...Dial
WW 142 SEVERE TSTM KS MO 070210Z - 070900Z
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED Severe Thunderstorm Watch
Number 142 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 910 PM CDT Mon
May 6 2019
The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a
* Severe Thunderstorm Watch for portions of extreme southeast Kansas
southwest Missouri
* Effective this Monday night and Tuesday morning from 910 PM until
400 AM CDT.
* Primary threats include... Scattered damaging wind gusts to 70
mph possible Isolated large hail events to 1.5 inches in diameter
possible
SUMMARY...Evolving MCS is expected to continue to pose a risk for
mainly damaging wind and some hail this evening into the early
morning as it continues through southeast Kansas and southwest
Missouri.
The severe thunderstorm watch area is approximately along and 55
statute miles north and south of a line from 30 miles west northwest
of Joplin MO to 35 miles east northeast of Springfield MO. For a
complete depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline
update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU2).
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
REMEMBER...A Severe Thunderstorm Watch means conditions are
favorable for severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area.
Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening
weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible
warnings. Severe thunderstorms can and occasionally do produce
tornadoes.
OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 138...WW 140...WW 141...
AVIATION...A few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft
to 1.5 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 60
knots. A few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 500. Mean storm motion
vector 32035.
...Dial
WW 0143 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 143
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 ESE P28 TO
35 SE SLN.
..SMITH..05/07/19
ATTN...WFO...ICT...
STATUS REPORT FOR WS 143
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
KSC015-019-035-049-073-077-079-099-115-125-173-191-070700-
KS . KANSAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
BUTLER CHAUTAUQUA COWLEY ELK
GREENWOOD HARPER HARVEY LABETTE
MARION MONTGOMERY SEDGWICK SUMNER
THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE REFER
TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL INFORMATION ON
COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES CLEARED FROM SEVERE
THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES.
WW 0142 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 142
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 15 ESE GMJ TO
35 ESE SGF.
..SMITH..05/07/19
ATTN...WFO...SGF...
STATUS REPORT FOR WS 142
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
MOC009-043-209-213-070715-
MO . MISSOURI COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
BARRY CHRISTIAN STONE TANEY
THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE REFER
TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL INFORMATION ON
COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES CLEARED FROM SEVERE
THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES.
WW 0141 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 141
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 40 WNW AVK TO
25 N P28 TO 35 SE RSL.
WW 141 WILL BE ALLOWED TO EXPIRE AT 070600Z.
..SMITH..05/07/19
ATTN...WFO...DDC...
STATUS REPORT FOR WT 141
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
KSC007-151-070600-
KS . KANSAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
BARBER PRATT
THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE REFER
TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL INFORMATION ON
COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES CLEARED FROM SEVERE
THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES.
WW 0140 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 140
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 SE RSL TO
30 WNW EMP TO 20 ENE CNU.
FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0565.
..GRAMS..05/07/19
ATTN...WFO...ICT...TOP...
STATUS REPORT FOR WT 140
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
KSC009-015-017-035-049-073-077-079-095-113-115-133-155-159-173-
191-205-207-070540-
KS . KANSAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
BARTON BUTLER CHASE COWLEY
ELK GREENWOOD HARPER HARVEY
KINGMAN MCPHERSON MARION NEOSHO RENO
RICE SEDGWICK SUMNER WILSON
WOODSON
THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE REFER
TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL INFORMATION ON
COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES CLEARED FROM SEVERE
THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES.
WW 0138 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 138
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 45 SSE ITR TO
45 NNE LHX TO 25 NE LIC.
WW 138 WILL BE ALLOWED TO EXPIRE AT 070300Z.
..GRAMS..05/07/19
ATTN...WFO...PUB...GLD...BOU...
STATUS REPORT FOR WS 138
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
COC017-063-070300-
CO . COLORADO COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
CHEYENNE KIT CARSON
THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE REFER
TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL INFORMATION ON
COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES CLEARED FROM SEVERE
THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES.
SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0108
AM CDT Tue May 07 2019
Valid 071200Z - 081200Z
...THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS
OF THE TEXAS PANHANDLE AND WESTERN OKLAHOMA...
...SUMMARY... Numerous severe thunderstorms are expected across
much of the southern High Plains from afternoon through Wednesday
morning. Damaging hail and wind, as well as tornadoes, are expected.
Significant severe is expected, especially from the Texas Panhandle
into northwest Texas and western Oklahoma late afternoon through
tonight.
...Synopsis... An upper low will move eastward across AZ and NM,
with a broad zone of 30-50 kt midlevel southwesterlies spreading
into the southern Plains during the latter half of the period. At
the surface, low pressure is forecast to develop over eastern NM
into the TX Panhandle, with a dryline just east of the NM border by
00Z. To the north, a stationary front will be near I-70 from MO into
eastern KS during the day, extending southwestward into southeast CO
and the western OK/TX Panhandles where a modifying outflow boundary
will exist. A moist air mass will remain south and east of these
boundaries, which will lead to moderate to strong instability over a
large area. As large-scale ascent increases with the upper trough,
southerly 850 mb winds of 35-50 kt will enhance shear profiles,
with numerous severe storms expected from late afternoon through
the night. Damaging hail, wind, and tornadoes are all possible.
...Southern Plains... Scattered thunderstorms may be ongoing
across parts of KS into MO early in the day, related to warm
advection atop numerous outflow boundaries. By early afternoon,
storms are expected to form over southeast CO into northeast NM,
beneath cooling temperatures aloft and where moisture will back
westward, possibly near the old outflow boundary. Hail and perhaps
a brief tornado will be possible with this activity.
Farther east, more substantial moisture and instability will develop
from the dryline/front intersection southward across far western TX.
Storms may form somewhat early in the afternoon over southwest KS
and the OK and northern TX Panhandles, as warm air lifts atop the
boundary or modifying outflow. Large hail will be possible with
these storms. With time, storms will develop southward along the
dryline where heating will be strongest. While low-level shear will
not be strong initially, deep-layer shear combined with steep lapse
rates aloft will support supercells capable of large hail. As the
low-level jet increases during the late afternoon and evening, the
threat of tornadoes should increase, especially across the Moderate
Risk area where SRH will increase to 200-300 m2/s2. In addition,
very large hail is likely. The damaging wind threat will increase
into the evening and overnight as cells possibly bow/merge and
expand southward across the remainder of west TX. Wind-driven hail
will be possible, with perhaps areas of significant wind damage.
While not in the Moderate Risk area, sporadic significant hail or
wind is possible across much of northwest into southwest TX as well
as the cold front pushes east overnight.
..Jewell/Bentley.. 05/07/2019
SPC 0600Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1153
PM CDT Mon May 06 2019
Valid 081200Z - 091200Z
...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM CENTRAL
TX TO THE ARKLATEX...
...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are forecast across the southern
Plains into the Mid/Lower-Mississippi Valley. Hail, wind, and some
tornado threat will be most concentrated across the Enhanced Risk.
...Discussion...
Lower CO River Valley trough is forecast to eject across the southern
Rockies into the southern High Plains by the start of the day2
period. This feature is expected to aid severe thunderstorm activity
during the day1 period across west TX which should upward evolve
into a squall line during the overnight hours. Latest CAMs support
this scenario with a linear MCS expected to advance across much
of OK into north-central TX by sunrise Wednesday. This early-day
convection should overturn a large instability reservoir which
may struggle to recharge during the afternoon hours prior to cold
frontal passage. Latest thinking is a squall line with damaging
winds and hail should advance across the southern Plains early,
then perhaps weaken some by late morning from south of the DFW
Metroplex into the Arklatex region. If this occurs, the primary
corridor of undisturbed buoyancy will extend from central TX toward
northwest LA. Aforementioned squall line could then intensify with
boundary-layer heating, or new discrete supercells may ultimately
evolve. For these reasons have reoriented the ENH Risk to reflect
the most likely region for concentrated severe.
If the early-day MCS exits OK quick enough, heating along the
cold front may be adequate for renewed thunderstorm development by
early evening. There is some reason to believe this is possible but
instability will not be as great as earlier expected and activity
should be isolated.
Wind/hail will be common with the early-day squall line as it
advances across the southern Plains. Some tornado threat will exist
with more discrete structures.
Northward extent of severe will be reduced by weaker buoyancy across
MO into IL. Even so, strong shear is expected to enhance the risk
for mainly wind with organized convection.
...MAXIMUM RISK BY HAZARD... Tornado: 5% - Slight Wind:
30% - Enhanced Hail: 30% - Enhanced
..Darrow.. 05/07/2019
SPC 0730Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0123
AM CDT Tue May 07 2019
Valid 091200Z - 101200Z
...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE
SOUTH-CENTRAL US...
...SUMMARY... Scattered thunderstorms, some severe, are expected
to develop across the south-central US Thursday.
...South-Central US...
Southern stream is expected to remain active this week as split flow
persists across the CONUS. Strong short-wave trough is forecast
to eject across the southern Plains during the day2 period before
lifting into the OH Valley atop a dominant southeastern ridge.
Models continue to suggest a secondary notable short-wave trough
will eject across TX into the lower OH Valley, though heights should
change little through the period. This feature should encourage
scattered thunderstorm development from south TX into AR where
buoyancy will be maximized ahead of a sharp cold front. While
boundary-layer lapse rates are not expected to be particularly
steep, robust updrafts are expected within a strongly sheared
environment. Thunderstorms will likely be ongoing at the start of
the period and additional convection should easily develop within an
uninhibited air mass characterized by SBCAPE in excess of 2000 J/kg.
Damaging winds should be the primary threat with this activity.
..Darrow.. 05/07/2019
SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0125 AM CDT Tue May 07 2019
Valid 071200Z - 081200Z
...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR EASTERN NEW MEXICO...
...Synopsis... Mid-level flow will strengthen across the Southwest
and southern High Plains today as a closed low becomes an open wave
and moves northeastward. As this wave crosses the Rockies, lee
cyclogenesis is expected in northeast New Mexico and the western
Texas Panhandle. At the surface, dry air will be present across
much of eastern New Mexico. The relative humidity is expected to
be in the 8 to 15 percent range across much of this region with
winds in the 20 to 25 mph range. Cooler air and thunderstorms are
expected in northern Arizona and northwest New Mexico which will
mark the western edge of the threat for large fire growth.
The GFS model suggests critical conditions are possible farther
east into the western Texas panhandle, however, most other guidance
keeps the dry low-level airmass west of the Texas border. Decided
to keep the critical delineation west of the Texas border primarily
due to the GFS bias for overmixing the dryline eastward. However,
even if the dryline does mix farther east, the fire weather threat
will likely be somewhat low due to higher fuel moisture in Texas
and recent rainfall across the area.
..Bentley.. 05/07/2019
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...
SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0125 AM CDT Tue May 07 2019
Valid 081200Z - 091200Z
...Synopsis... A strong trough will be present over the western
CONUS on Wednesday with cool and wet conditions across most of the
Rockies, with accumulating snow possible in some mountain locations
as far south as northern New Mexico. Dry surface conditions will be
mostly relegated to far southeast New Mexico and the Trans Pecos/Big
Bend in Texas. Deep mixing will lead to some increasing strength in
the westerly winds across this region during the afternoon hours,
but relatively weak mid-level flow will likely limit wind speeds
below 20 mph. Localized critical conditions may be possible somewhere
near the New Mexico border, but more widespread critical wind speeds
seem unlikely.
..Bentley.. 05/07/2019
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...
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