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LU9DCE > ALERT 13.04.23 02:32z 87 Lines 3309 Bytes #999 (0) @ WW
BID : 8166_LU9DCE
Read: GUEST
Subj: STORM PREDICTION CENTER 13-APR23
Path: HB9ON<IW0QNL<IZ3LSV<I0OJJ<EA2RCF<LU9DCE
Sent: 230413/0230Z 8166@LU9DCE.TOR.BA.ARG.SOAM LinBPQ6.0.23
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ESTACION DE PACKET RADIO - BUENOS AIRES (GF05OM)
BOLETINES INFORMATIVOS PROGRAMADOS (BIP) PHP
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SPC - No watches are valid as of Wed Apr 12 23:10:02 UTC 2023
No watches are valid as of Wed Apr 12 23:10:02 UTC 2023.
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SPC - No MDs are in effect as of Wed Apr 12 23:10:02 UTC 2023
No Mesoscale Discussions are in effect as of Wed Apr 12 23:10:02 UTC
2023.
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SPC Apr 12, 2023 2000 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook
SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0249 PM CDT Wed Apr 12 2023
Valid 122000Z - 131200Z
...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ALONG PORTIONS
OF THE CENTRAL GULF COAST....
...SUMMARY...
Isolated damaging wind gusts and/or a tornado are possible along
parts of the Gulf Coast late tonight into Thursday morning.
...20z Update...
...Southern FL Peninsula and Keys...
A few stronger storms have been noted moving onshore over the far
southern FL Peninsula and Keys this afternoon. Backed low-level flow
along a northward moving warm front may support a low-end risk for
transient supercells and a brief tornado through the afternoon.
However, uncertainty on the coverage and longevity of any severe
threat remains too high to introduce severe probabilities. Please
see mesoscale discussion 504 for more information.
Otherwise, no major changes have been made to the current outlook.
Please see the previous discussion for additional details.
..Lyons/Dean.. 04/12/2023
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1130 AM CDT Wed Apr 12 2023/
...Gulf Coast including southern portions MS/AL and FL Panhandle...
With the mid-level portion of the cyclone centered along the
southwest Louisiana coast this morning, the low-level circulation is
expected to intensify and shift northward and reach coastal
southeast Mississippi/far southwest Alabama vicinity by Thursday
morning. However, it is noted that there are several-MB differences,
even in the short term, with the progged deepening of the surface
low and its northeast-peripheral strengthening wind field among
model guidance (e.g. 12z NAM one of the more aggressive solutions).
Even more modest-strength/slower solutions suggest that the
near-coastal environment could become conducive to some
severe-weather potential late tonight into Thursday, including
locally damaging winds and a tornado risk. This will be as an
increasingly moist air mass via a northward-shifting warm front
approaches and moves inland. Mid-level winds will remain
modest-strength, but strengthening low-level shear/SRH should be
adequate for at least some near-coastal transient supercells, with
the potential persisting into Thursday (see Day 2).
Read more
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