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LU9DCE > ALERT 15.04.23 02:05z 410 Lines 14729 Bytes #999 (0) @ WW
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Subj: STORM PREDICTION CENTER 15-APR23
Path: HB9ON<IW8PGT<I3XTY<I0OJJ<LU4ECL<LU9DCE
Sent: 230415/0200Z 8269@LU9DCE.TOR.BA.ARG.SOAM LinBPQ6.0.23
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ESTACION DE PACKET RADIO - BUENOS AIRES (GF05OM)
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SPC Severe Thunderstorm Watch 136
WW 136 SEVERE TSTM IA KS NE OK 142135Z - 150500Z
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
Severe Thunderstorm Watch Number 136
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
435 PM CDT Fri Apr 14 2023
The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a
* Severe Thunderstorm Watch for portions of
Extreme southwest Iowa
Central and eastern Kansas
Southeast Nebraska
Northwest Oklahoma
* Effective this Friday afternoon from 435 PM until Midnight CDT.
* Primary threats include...
Scattered damaging winds and isolated significant gusts to 75
mph likely
Scattered large hail and isolated very large hail events to 2.5
inches in diameter possible
SUMMARY...Severe thunderstorms will move northeast across the watch
area through this evening. Initially, large hail, possibly very
large, and damaging winds will be the primary hazards. With time,
the risk for damaging winds will become the primary severe weather
hazard with isolated gusts to 75 mph possible.
The severe thunderstorm watch area is approximately along and 135
statute miles north and south of a line from 45 miles south
southwest of Russell KS to 50 miles east of Manhattan KS. For a
complete depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline
update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU6).
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
REMEMBER...A Severe Thunderstorm Watch means conditions are
favorable for severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area.
Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening
weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible
warnings. Severe thunderstorms can and occasionally do produce
tornadoes.
&&
AVIATION...A few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to
2.5 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 65 knots. A
few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 450. Mean storm motion vector
23025.
...Bunting
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SPC Severe Thunderstorm Watch 136 Status Reports
WW 0136 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 136
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 SSW RSL
TO 10 ESE RSL TO 10 N HSI.
FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0517
..DEAN..04/14/23
ATTN...WFO...OAX...DDC...ICT...TOP...GID...OUN...
STATUS REPORT FOR WS 136
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
IAC071-129-155-150040-
IA
. IOWA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
FREMONT MILLS POTTAWATTAMIE
KSC007-009-013-015-017-027-029-031-035-041-053-061-073-077-079-
085-089-095-105-111-113-115-117-123-127-131-139-143-149-151-155-
157-159-161-167-169-173-177-185-191-197-201-150040-
KS
. KANSAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
BARBER BARTON BROWN
BUTLER CHASE CLAY
CLOUD COFFEY COWLEY
DICKINSON ELLSWORTH GEARY
GREENWOOD HARPER HARVEY
JACKSON JEWELL KINGMAN
LINCOLN LYON MCPHERSON
MARION MARSHALL MITCHELL
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SPC MD 517
MD 0517 CONCERNING SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 136... FOR
CENTRAL/EASTERN KS...NORTHWEST OK...SOUTHEAST NE...EXTREME SOUTHWEST
IA
Mesoscale Discussion 0517
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0635 PM CDT Fri Apr 14 2023
Areas affected...Central/eastern KS...Northwest OK...Southeast
NE...Extreme southwest IA
Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 136...
Valid 142335Z - 150100Z
The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 136
continues.
SUMMARY...The threat for severe hail and wind continues across WW
136. Storms will continue to develop along the cold front, as a
separate thunderstorm cluster moves toward northeast Kansas.
DISCUSSION...At 2330 UTC, a thunderstorm cluster is moving toward
northeast KS, with other strong thunderstorms gradually increasing
in coverage along a cold front from southeast NE into central KS and
far northwest OK. The easternmost cluster has produced several
1-inch hail reports, though some weakening has noted over the last
30 minutes as it moves into a region characterized by rather strong
MLCINH. Even if this cluster continues to gradually weaken, steep
midlevel lapse rates will continue support a hail threat, and
localized severe gusts will be possible within the rather warm and
deeply mixed boundary layer across the region. Some severe threat
may spread east of WW 136, and local watch expansion may be
required, but additional downstream watch issuance appears unlikely
at this time.
To the north and west, frontal storms are expected to continue
intensifying early this evening, within an environment characterized
by steep low/midlevel lapse rates, moderate buoyancy, and sufficient
effective shear (30-40 kt) for organized convection. The initial
somewhat discrete cells will be capable of producing large hail,
with localized instances of golf ball or larger sized hail possible.
Eventually, with deep-layer shear vectors generally parallel to the
front, storm mergers will result in some upscale growth, with
residual deeply mixed boundary layers across the warm sector and
increasing low-level flow supporting a severe-wind threat through
much of the evening.
..Dean/Bunting.. 04/14/2023
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...
ATTN...WFO...EAX...OAX...TOP...ICT...OUN...GID...DDC...
LAT...LON 36749962 37159924 38609847 39969825 40409779 41459605
41519547 40999532 40529576 39509516 38849515 38199550
37699593 37089644 36829768 36669854 36589912 36749962
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SPC MD 516
MD 0516 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE FOR PORTIONS OF
SOUTHERN TEXAS
Mesoscale Discussion 0516
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0631 PM CDT Fri Apr 14 2023
Areas affected...portions of southern Texas
Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible
Valid 142331Z - 150130Z
Probability of Watch Issuance...40 percent
SUMMARY...A few severe storms may develop through the remainder of
the evening. Large hail appears to be the main threat with the
stronger storms, though a couple of severe gusts cannot be ruled
out. Trends in convective coverage and intensity are being monitored
for the need of a possible WW.
DISCUSSION...Thunderstorm updrafts have percolated in intensity
across portions of southern Texas (especially in Frio County) in a
moderately unstable/sheared environment. Storms have yet to become
sustained across the area due to some residual capping and lack of
stronger deep-layer ascent. However, 23Z mesoanalysis depicts a
subtle mid-level impulse approaching southern Texas from the
Chihuahuan Desert, which may serve as the impetus for more robust
convective development over the next few hours. Low-level moisture
is increasing well into the 60s F, overspread by 8+ C/km 700-500 mb
lapse rates, is contributing to over 2000 J/kg MLCAPE, that in
tandem with 40 kts of effective bulk shear, would support the
development of supercells. RAP forecast soundings show elongated
hodographs, with near-saturation noted just above the effective
inflow layer (i.e. above 700 mb), indicative of efficient hail
growth potential in any supercells that can materialize, and 2+ inch
diameter hail cannot be ruled out.
At the moment, overall convective coverage is uncertain. However,
any storms that manage to mature and become sustained should be
efficient severe hail producers, along with severe gusts. As such,
conditions will continue to be monitored for trends in increasing
storm coverage, intensity, and the subsequent need of a Severe
Thunderstorm Watch.
..Squitieri/Bunting.. 04/14/2023
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...
ATTN...WFO...HGX...CRP...EWX...
LAT...LON 29120086 29679973 29859814 29709728 29309690 28729685
28209722 27849788 27659858 27689921 27839998 29120086
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SPC Apr 14, 2023 2000 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook
SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0257 PM CDT Fri Apr 14 2023
Valid 142000Z - 151200Z
...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE
SOUTHEASTERN NEBRASKA VICINITY SOUTHWARD TO NORTHERN OKLAHOMA...
...SUMMARY...
Severe thunderstorms capable of producing large hail and damaging
winds are most likely from late afternoon through evening from
southeast Nebraska into central Kansas and northwest Oklahoma.
Additional isolated severe thunderstorms are possible across
south-central Texas through evening, and across parts of the
Carolinas and southeast Virginia the remainder of this afternoon.
...Discussion...
Aside from minor adjustments to outlook lines in a few areas --
primarily to reflect ongoing convective evolution -- no substantive
changes appear necessary at this time. Convection is forecast to
increase across the Plains region over the few hours, while a storm
or two may also develop across portions of the Hill Country and
South Texas, as described in prior outlooks.
..Goss.. 04/14/2023
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1124 AM CDT Fri Apr 14 2023/
...Central Plains Vicinity...
At midday, a surface low was located near the central KS/NE border.
A dryline extended south from the low across western KS into far
west TX, while a cold front arced across southeast CO. The dryline
is forecast to mix eastward to western OK and central TX by late
afternoon, while the cold front sags south/southeast toward the
OK/TX Panhandle and central KS. The northern extent of the cold
front will shift east from southeast NE into central MN through
evening. Ahead of these surface boundaries, modest moisture return
is underway on strengthening southerly low-level flow. Upper 50s to
near 60 F dewpoints are expected as far north as far southeast NE
this evening. As the western upper trough begins to eject eastward
this evening, large-scale ascent coupled with frontal convergence
should provide support for thunderstorm development.
Steep midlevel lapse rates (8-9 C/km) and modest boundary-layer
moisture will support moderate to strong destabilization with MLCAPE
values greater than 2000 J/kg forecast along/west of the I-35
corridor. While deep-layer south to southwesterly flow will remain
modest through 500 mb (generally 25-35 kt), effective shear
magnitudes around 30-35 kt will marginally favor initial high-based
supercells. With time, upward development into clusters/bows is
possible during the evening. Large hail (some greater than 2 inches)
and damaging gusts (some to around 75 mph) are expected across the
Slight risk (Level 2 of 5) area from southeast NE into northwest OK.
Additional strong storms capable of gusty winds and hail will be
possible in the post-frontal upslope regime across southeast CO into
western KS just behind the southward-sagging cold front. High based
convection with well-mixed sub-cloud profiles may support mostly dry
downburst winds. Steep lapse rates and modest shear also could
support large hail in any cells that can persist/remain organized.
A more conditional threat may extent southward toward the I-40
corridor in western/west-central OK. Concerns over stronger capping
with southward extent will preclude expansion of severe
probabilities across OK. However, a strong/severe cell could develop
near the dryline within the Marginal risk (Level 1 of 5) area as far
south as I-40 in western OK.
...Edwards Plateau Vicinity in TX...
Latest forecast guidance has been more aggressive in eroding
midlevel capping across south/south-central TX this
afternoon/evening. Deep boundary-layer moisture is forecast across
south TX amid steep midlevel lapse rates, supporting strong
destabilization this afternoon. Elongated forecast hodographs and
supercell wind profiles suggest large hail (some potentially greater
than 2 inches) will be possible if cells develop. Some potential
exists for developing convection to form a bow tracking east toward
the Middle TX Coast during the evening/early overnight period. If
this occurs, some risk for locally damaging gusts also will exist. A
Marginal risk (Level 1 of 5) has been included, and an upgrade to
Slight risk (Level 2 of 5) may be needed in subsequent outlooks if
trends continue to increase.
...Carolinas/southern VA this afternoon/evening...
The closed midlevel low over the TN Valley will gradually evolve
into an open wave while ejecting northeastward toward the
Mid-Atlantic tonight. Surface dewpoints in the mid/upper 60s are in
place across the Carolinas and will continue to spread northward
toward southern VA. Surface heating amid cloud breaks is supporting
weak destabilization early this afternoon. Midlevel lapse rates and
vertical shear will remain modest (
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SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0208 PM CDT Fri Apr 14 2023
Valid 151200Z - 161200Z
...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AND EASTERN
NEW MEXICO...
...Central and Eastern New Mexico...
Confidence has increased such that widespread Critical fire-weather
conditions are possible with strong northwest flow across portions
of central and eastern New Mexico D2/Saturday. Area forecast
soundings show very low humidity (5-12%) overlapping with at least a
few hours of frequent wind gusts near 25 mph. Continued drying of
area fuels with ERC values in the 80th+ percentile, critical
fire-weather conditions are possible. See the previous discussion
for additional information.
..Lyons.. 04/14/2023
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0211 AM CDT Fri Apr 14 2023/
...Synopsis...
A mid-level trough will overspread the central Plains and impinge on
the MS Valley today, resulting in a surface low drifting toward the
Great Lakes and a cold front sweeping across the southern Plains.
Downslope flow along the lee of the southern Rockies will encourage
widespread 15 mph sustained northwesterly surface winds and 15
percent RH from eastern NM into western TX, warranting Elevated
highlights. At least locally Critical conditions are also possible
in central into eastern New Mexico, and Critical highlights may be
warranted in future outlooks pending guidance consistency.
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...
Read more
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