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LU9DCE > ALERT 03.02.19 16:24z 109 Lines 5730 Bytes #999 (0) @ WW
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Subj: Storm Prediction Center 12 01
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MD 0017 CONCERNING HEAVY SNOW FOR EASTERN KS TO WEST-CENTRAL IL
Mesoscale Discussion 0017 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1134 PM CST Fri Jan 11 2019
Areas affected...Eastern KS to West-Central IL
Concerning...Heavy snow
Valid 120534Z - 120930Z
SUMMARY...Heavy snow will focus along a corridor from eastern KS,
across central MO, into west-central IL. Snow rates will be on the
order of 1"+ per hour.
DISCUSSION...Well-defined mid-level circulation has evolved over the
central Plains along the KS/OK border near Medicine Lodge (KP28).
Large-scale forcing for ascent appears to be increasing ahead of
this feature and precipitation is responding accordingly. Over the
last few hours the corresponding baroclinic leaf is sharpening which
supports radar trends of an expanding/intensifying shield of heavy
snow across portions of eastern KS into central MO. It appears a
corridor of heavy snow (1"+/hr) will establish itself over the next
few hours from near EMP in KS, downstream just south of the KC metro,
into west-central IL just north of the St. Louis area. Heavy snow
will likely continue along this corridor into the post-dawn hours.
..Darrow.. 01/12/2019
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...
ATTN...WFO...ILX...LSX...SGF...EAX...TOP...ICT...
LAT...LON 38519602 39339349 39859055 38969025 38119244 37979556
38519602
SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1128
PM CST Fri Jan 11 2019
Valid 121200Z - 131200Z
...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...
...SUMMARY... A few weak thunderstorms are possible along coastal
southern California Saturday morning, and across the Sabine River
Valley into southern Mississippi. Severe weather is not expected.
...Synopsis and Discussion... A shortwave trough will lose amplitude
as it moves rapidly eastward from the southern Plains toward the
Mid Atlantic. At the surface, low pressure will move from eastern
OK Saturday morning across AR during the day, and into middle TN
by 12Z Sunday, filling all the while. A cold front will extend
south from the low, and will be located over eastern TX Saturday
morning. Here, a wide band of rain and a few thunderstorms is
likely to be ongoing in a warm advection zone, with weak elevated
instability present. Instability is forecast to decrease as the
system shifts east, thus isolated thunderstorms are most likely
early in the day from the Sabine River into southern MS.
To the west, an upper low will be located over southern CA, and will
shift slowly into AZ. Cold temperatures aloft with this system and a
cold front may allow for a few thunderstorms near coastal southern CA
early in the day, while farther east, upslope flow over the Mogollon
Rim may lead to an isolated lightning strike overnight. In any case,
severe weather is unlikely across the CONUS.
..Jewell/Leitman.. 01/12/2019
SPC 0700Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1152
PM CST Fri Jan 11 2019
Valid 131200Z - 141200Z
...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...
...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms appear unlikely across the contiguous
United States on Sunday.
...Synopsis and Discussion... A low-amplitude shortwave
trough will move eastward across the Carolinas and Mid Atlantic
on Sunday. Although large-scale ascent ahead of this feature
should promote a large swath of precipitation across this region,
forecast soundings show only minimal elevated instability across
parts of the central/eastern Carolinas Sunday morning. Although
very isolated lightning strikes could occur within this regime,
this potential still appears to be less than 10%. At the surface,
a low initially just off the SC Coast should develop northeastward
over the Gulf Stream, with the trailing portion of a cold front
moving southeastward across the FL Peninsula through the day. Owing
to a prior frontal passage, low-level moisture is expected to
remain quite limited across the FL Peninsula Sunday ahead of the
front. With negligible instability forecast across this region due
mainly to an inversion centered around 700 mb, thunderstorms are
not forecast over land.
Farther west, an upper low will approach the central CA Coast late
in the period. A broad area of precipitation should move over this
region late Sunday night. However, mid-level lapse rates are not
expected to steepen sufficiently to support any meaningful elevated
instability along the immediate coast. Accordingly, thunderstorm
potential remains too low to delineate an area.
...MAXIMUM RISK BY HAZARD... Tornado: <2% - None Wind: <5%
- None Hail: <5% - None
..Gleason.. 01/12/2019
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The herd instinct among economists makes sheep look like independent thinkers.
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