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LU9DCE > ALERT 08.05.19 07:03z 340 Lines 17734 Bytes #999 (0) @ WW
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Subj: Storm Prediction Center 08 05
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ESTACION DE PACKET RADIO - BUENOS AIRES (GF05OM)
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WW 150 SEVERE TSTM TX 080355Z - 081200Z
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED Severe Thunderstorm Watch
Number 150 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1055 PM CDT Tue
May 7 2019
The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a
* Severe Thunderstorm Watch for portions of West-central Texas
* Effective this Tuesday night and Wednesday morning from 1055 PM
until 700 AM CDT.
* Primary threats include... Scattered large hail and isolated
very large hail events to 2 inches in diameter possible Scattered
damaging wind gusts to 70 mph possible A tornado or two possible
SUMMARY...Thunderstorms may continue to increase in coverage across
the Concho Valley to Big Country region overnight. Large hail and
severe wind gusts will be the primary hazards.
The severe thunderstorm watch area is approximately along and
60 statute miles east and west of a line from 60 miles north of
Abilene TX to 45 miles west southwest of Junction TX. For a complete
depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline update
(WOUS64 KWNS WOU0).
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
REMEMBER...A Severe Thunderstorm Watch means conditions are
favorable for severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area.
Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening
weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible
warnings. Severe thunderstorms can and occasionally do produce
tornadoes.
OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 145...WW 149...
AVIATION...A few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to
2 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 60 knots. A
few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 550. Mean storm motion vector
22030.
...Grams
WW 149 TORNADO KS OK TX 080215Z - 081000Z
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED Tornado Watch Number 149
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 915 PM CDT Tue May 7 2019
The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a
* Tornado Watch for portions of Far southern Kansas Southwest to
northeast Oklahoma Western north Texas
* Effective this Tuesday night and Wednesday morning from 915 PM
until 500 AM CDT.
* Primary threats include... A few tornadoes and a couple intense
tornadoes possible Scattered damaging winds and isolated significant
gusts to 80 mph likely Scattered large hail and isolated very large
hail events to 2 inches in diameter possible
SUMMARY...An extensive squall line will push east from western
Oklahoma and south-central Kansas, while scattered thunderstorms
develop ahead of the line across central Oklahoma to southeast
Kansas. All hazards are possible, but damaging winds and a few
tornadoes should be the primary threats.
The tornado watch area is approximately along and 85 statute miles
east and west of a line from 30 miles west southwest of Wichita
Falls TX to 55 miles northwest of Bartlesville OK. For a complete
depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline update
(WOUS64 KWNS WOU9).
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
REMEMBER...A Tornado Watch means conditions are favorable
for tornadoes and severe thunderstorms in and close to the
watch area. Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for
threatening weather conditions and listen for later statements and
possible warnings.
OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...This tornado watch replaces tornado watch
number 146...tornado watch number 148. Watch number 146 148 will not
be in effect after 915 PM CDT. CONTINUE...WW 144...WW 145...WW 147...
AVIATION...Tornadoes and a few severe thunderstorms with hail
surface and aloft to 2 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind
gusts to 70 knots. A few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 550. Mean
storm motion vector 24030.
...Grams
WW 0150 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 150
THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS THE ENTIRE WATCH AREA.
..SMITH..05/08/19
ATTN...WFO...SJT...
STATUS REPORT FOR WS 150
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
TXC049-059-081-083-095-105-151-207-235-253-267-307-319-327-353-
399-411-413-417-431-435-441-447-451-080740-
TX . TEXAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
BROWN CALLAHAN COKE COLEMAN
CONCHO CROCKETT FISHER HASKELL
IRION JONES KIMBLE MCCULLOCH MASON
MENARD NOLAN RUNNELS SAN SABA
SCHLEICHER SHACKELFORD STERLING SUTTON TAYLOR
THROCKMORTON TOM GREEN
THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE REFER
TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL INFORMATION ON
COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES CLEARED FROM SEVERE
THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES.
WW 0149 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 149
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 15 WNW CSM TO
30 SE PNC TO 50 NW BVO.
..SMITH..05/08/19
ATTN...WFO...ICT...OUN...TSA...
STATUS REPORT FOR WT 149
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
KSC001-019-049-099-125-133-205-207-080700-
KS . KANSAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
ALLEN CHAUTAUQUA ELK LABETTE
MONTGOMERY NEOSHO WILSON WOODSON
OKC009-015-017-019-027-031-033-035-037-049-051-055-057-065-067-
073-075-081-083-087-091-097-099-101-105-107-109-111-113-117-119-
123-125-131-133-137-141-143-145-147-149-080700-
OK . OKLAHOMA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
BECKHAM CADDO CANADIAN CARTER
CLEVELAND COMANCHE COTTON CRAIG
CREEK GARVIN GRADY GREER HARMON
JACKSON JEFFERSON KINGFISHER KIOWA
LINCOLN LOGAN MCCLAIN MCINTOSH MAYES
MURRAY MUSKOGEE
WW 0147 Status Updates
WW 0145 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 145
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 10 NNE 6R6 TO
55 SSE MAF TO 15 SE BGS TO 65 SE LBB TO 45 SW CDS TO 40 W CDS TO
25 SE AMA.
..BENTLEY..05/08/19
ATTN...WFO...MAF...LUB...SJT...
STATUS REPORT FOR WT 145
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
TXC075-081-101-105-125-151-173-191-235-263-269-335-345-353-383-
415-431-433-443-451-080340-
TX . TEXAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
CHILDRESS COKE COTTLE CROCKETT
DICKENS FISHER GLASSCOCK HALL
IRION KENT KING MITCHELL MOTLEY
NOLAN REAGAN SCURRY STERLING
STONEWALL TERRELL TOM GREEN
THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE REFER
TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL INFORMATION ON
COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES CLEARED FROM SEVERE
THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES.
MD 0584 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE FOR PORTIONS
OF CENTRAL AND NORTH-CENTRAL TX
Mesoscale Discussion 0584 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1256 AM CDT Wed May 08 2019
Areas affected...portions of central and north-central TX
Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible
Valid 080556Z - 080700Z
Probability of Watch Issuance...40 percent
SUMMARY...A new severe thunderstorm watch is being considered for
portions of central and north-central TX to the east of ongoing
severe/tornado watches. Isolated severe gusts are the primary
threat.
DISCUSSION...Radar imagery shows a band of storms near Abilene
bifurcating I-20 as it develops east and aided by a 45-50kt southerly
LLJ. Surface analysis indicates mid 60s degrees F dewpoints reside
between I-35 and US 277. Ample low- and deep-layer shear will
support storm organizations mainly in organized linear bands/clusters
of storms overnight within a moderately buoyant airmass. Although
there is some uncertainty regarding the intensity/coverage of
the potential severe risk overnight, it is likely this activity
will move east towards the northwestern part of the Metroplex in a
couple of hours. Given the background wind fields and thermodynamic
potential, it seems at least possible a new severe watch will be
needed for areas farther east into north-central TX.
..Smith/Thompson.. 05/08/2019
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...
ATTN...WFO...FWD...OUN...EWX...SJT...
LAT...LON 32259909 33199886 33819757 33759651 32749655 31359737
31029845 32259909
Public Severe Weather Outlook
PUBLIC SEVERE WEATHER OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN
OK 1234 PM CDT TUE MAY 07 2019
...Severe thunderstorms expected over parts of the southern Plains
this afternoon and tonight...
* LOCATIONS... Texas Panhandle Western Oklahoma
* HAZARDS... Widespread damaging winds, some hurricane force Several
tornadoes, a few intense Widespread large hail, some baseball size
* SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are likely this afternoon
into tonight, particularly across the Texas Panhandle and western
Oklahoma. A couple of strong tornadoes, very large hail, and damaging
winds will all be possible.
Preparedness actions...
Review your severe weather safety procedures for the possibility
of dangerous weather today. Stay tuned to NOAA Weather Radio,
weather.gov, or other media for watches and warnings. A watch means
that conditions are favorable for severe thunderstorms over the
next several hours. If a severe thunderstorm warning is issued for
your area, move to a place of safety, ideally in an interior room
on the lowest floor of a sturdy building.
..Guyer.. 05/07/2019
$$
SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1258
AM CDT Wed May 08 2019
Valid 081200Z - 091200Z
...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM PORTIONS
OF CENTRAL TEXAS EAST-NORTHEAST ACROSS THE ARKLATEX REGION...
...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are forecast across the southern
Plains into the Mid/Lower-Mississippi Valley. Hail, wind, and some
tornado threat will be most concentrated across the Enhanced Risk.
...Synopsis... A large upper trough is forecast to linger over
the western and central U.S. today, with smaller-scale/convectively
augmented circulations affecting the central portions of the country.
Meanwhile, downstream ridging will prevail across the eastern U.S.
through the period.
At the surface, a cold front is forecast to evolve/shift generally
southeastward, particularly through the second half of the period as
a weak surface low shifts east-northeastward into the Upper Midwest.
Ahead of this front, widespread/locally severe storms are expected.
...Southern Plains to the lower Mississippi Valley...
A complex/uncertain scenario is evident across the OK/TX/AR/LA
region for today, as a large MCS continues to evolve over KS/OK and
other storms spread east across west-central Texas. The evolution
of this convection will play a very substantial role in modulating
the location and degree of risk later today, with a large portion
of what would otherwise be a synoptically favorable risk area likely
rendered impotent as a result of substantial convective overturning.
At this time, it would appear that much of Oklahoma and northern
Texas will have been stabilized by ongoing convection through midday,
with the primary convective outflow somewhere from north Texas across
the Arklatex into Arkansas. Some ongoing severe potential will
likely accompany this convection -- with risk likely to increase near
the fringes of the ongoing storms where some heating/destabilization
can occur. While exactly location of the greatest risk corridor
remains difficult to determine, and with details like storm mode
similarly difficult to pin down at this time, will maintain broad,
enhanced-level risk for all severe weather categories.
Some CAM guidance continues to suggest that a line of storms may
eventually spread across the lower Mississippi River through late
afternoon, followed by redevelopment of convection in its wake,
across the Arkansas vicinity, as a low-level jet develops after dark.
With the storms likely elevated atop an outflow-cooled boundary
layer, hail would appear to be the primary risk at this time.
...Mid Mississippi/lower Missouri Valleys... As a convectively
enhanced upper circulation shifts north-northeastward across
the mid Missouri Valley today, a weak surface low is expected to
do likewise, and is progged to reach Iowa during the afternoon.
With favorably strong deep-layer flow, and some possible backing
of the low-level winds east of the low, the kinematic environment
would appear favorable for severe potential.
With that said, the warm-sector thermodynamics remain a question,
with an evolving/well-developed MCS currently over Kansas/Oklahoma
likely to negatively influence potential for heating/destabilization
across a large portion of the region. At this time, will maintain
the broad slight risk area across this region, though acknowledging
the uncertainty. Adjustments to later outlooks can be expected,
once the ongoing convective scenario further evolves, and hopefully
helps to clarify the degree of risk across this region.
..Goss/Bentley.. 05/08/2019
SPC 0600Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1153
PM CDT Tue May 07 2019
Valid 091200Z - 101200Z
...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE
MID-SOUTH...
...SUMMARY... Scattered thunderstorms, some severe, are expected
to develop across the south-central US Thursday.
...Discussion...
Upper ridging is expected to hold across the southeastern US
through the day2 period. This large-scale feature will ensure
short waves that translate through the base of western US trough
will eject across the southern Plains into the OH Valley. During
the day2 period, southern extent of one such feature will brush
the Mid-South region such that organized convection is expected to
develop from portions of TX into the lower OH Valley.
Early Thursday, thunderstorms will be ongoing ahead of the front from
the Arklatex into western KY. This activity will be aided in part
by a pronounced LLJ that is expected to translate into the OH Valley
ahead of the aforementioned short wave. While scattered severe may be
noted with this convection, mostly wind and perhaps some hail, the
primary focus for severe may be delayed until boundary layer begins
to warm. While thermodynamic profiles will become more favorable
for robust updrafts by 18z, LLJ will gradually lift north of the
SLGT Risk into the OH Valley where buoyancy is not expected to be
particularly high. Forecast soundings across the Mid-South suggest
deep-layer shear will be more than adequate for organized updrafts,
though low-level flow should weaken and veer ahead of the front. For
these reasons it appears a squall line or organized multi-cell
storms will be common ahead of the front as it advances east.
Farther southwest, have chosen to maintain severe probs along the
front across south TX. Weak mid-level height rises will be noted
across this region as a sharp boundary surges into deep south TX.
Thunderstorms are expected to develop over the higher terrain
of northeast Mexico and this activity could propagate southeast
along the Rio Grande Valley during the overnight hours. Otherwise,
isolated strong/severe storms could form near/atop shallow boundary.
Hail/wind are the primary risks.
...MAXIMUM RISK BY HAZARD... Tornado: 5% - Slight Wind:
15% - Slight Hail: 15% - Slight
..Darrow.. 05/08/2019
SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0145 AM CDT Wed May 08 2019
Valid 081200Z - 091200Z
...Synopsis... A large trough in the western CONUS will bring
cool air to much of the Intermountain West and into much of the
Southwest. The low-level dry air will be shunted into southeast
New Mexico and southwest Texas. Surface winds are expected to
increase to the 20 to 25 mph range in this area as the surface
pressure gradient strengthens in response to the deepening cyclone
in the Texas Panhandle and stronger mid-level winds mix toward the
surface. While winds may be supportive of critical fire weather
conditions, surface relative humidities are expected to be in the
15 to 20 percent range. Therefore, an elevated delineation should
be sufficient to cover the threat for large fire spread.
..Bentley.. 05/08/2019
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...
SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0145 AM CDT Wed May 08 2019
Valid 091200Z - 101200Z
...NO CRITICAL AREAS...
...Synopsis... A mid-level trough will become even more broad
across the western CONUS on Thursday. This will bring a significant
amount of cold air into the Rockies with accumulating snow possible
at higher elevations. Low-level dry air will be mostly absent from
the western CONUS which should preclude any threat for large fire
spread. In addition, mostly weak mid-level winds and strong surface
high pressure building into the central Plains will keep surface
winds fairly light, especially across the Southwest. Therefore,
no areas of fire weather concern have been added for this outlook.
..Bentley.. 05/08/2019
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...
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Be prepared to accept sacrifices. Vestal virgins aren't all that bad.
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