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LU9DCE > ALERT 18.04.23 02:30z 142 Lines 5346 Bytes #999 (0) @ WW
BID : 8450_LU9DCE
Read: GUEST
Subj: STORM PREDICTION CENTER 18-APR23
Path: HB9ON<IW0QNL<ON0AR<GB7CIP<VE3KPG<VE3CGR<LU9DCE
Sent: 230418/0200Z 8450@LU9DCE.TOR.BA.ARG.SOAM LinBPQ6.0.23
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PHP SCHEDULED NEWSLETTERS (PSN)
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SPC - NO WATCHES ARE VALID AS OF MON APR 17 22:27:02 UTC 2023
NO WATCHES ARE VALID AS OF MON APR 17 22:27:02 UTC 2023.
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SPC - NO MDS ARE IN EFFECT AS OF MON APR 17 22:27:02 UTC 2023
NO MESOSCALE DISCUSSIONS ARE IN EFFECT AS OF MON APR 17 22:27:02 UTC 2023.
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SPC APR 17, 2023 2000 UTC DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
SPC 2000Z DAY 1 OUTLOOK
DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0251 PM CDT MON APR 17 2023
VALID 172000Z - 181200Z
...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PORTIONS OF
THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS...
...SUMMARY...
ISOLATED SEVERE WIND GUSTS AND SMALL TO MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL WILL
BE POSSIBLE BETWEEN 4 TO 9 PM CDT ACROSS PARTS OF WEST TEXAS AND
SOUTHEAST NEW MEXICO.
...DISCUSSION...
THE ONLY CHANGE MADE TO THE PREVIOUS CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK IS TO REMOVE
LOW-SEVERE PROBABILITIES OVER SOUTH FL. CONVECTIVE OVERTURNING
COUPLED WITH VEERING LOW-LEVEL FLOW --COINCIDENT WITH A COOL FRONT--
WILL COMBINE TO DIMINISH THE RISK FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THE
REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON.
..SMITH.. 04/17/2023
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1123 AM CDT MON APR 17 2023/
...SOUTHEAST FL...
A NEAR-TERM THREAT FOR A SEVERE STORM OR TWO SHOULD PERSIST FOR A
COUPLE MORE HOURS ATTENDANT TO A MINOR SOUTHERN-STREAM MID-LEVEL
TROUGH PASSING ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PENINSULA. WITHIN A LINGERING
COMBINATION OF MODERATE BUOYANCY AND DEEP-LAYER SHEAR, WEAK
SUPERCELLS WILL REMAIN CAPABLE OF PRODUCING SMALL TO MARGINALLY
SEVERE HAIL AND LOCALLY STRONG GUSTS. LOW-LEVEL WINDS APPEAR TO BE
IN THE PROCESS OF WEAKENING AND BECOMING MORE VEERED, WHICH WILL
RESULT IN A DECREASING THREAT LATER THIS AFTERNOON.
...WEST TX AND SOUTHEAST NM...
NORTHWEST OF THE MORE SUBSTANTIAL MOISTURE RETURN, DEEP
BOUNDARY-LAYER MIXING WILL SUPPORT AT LEAST ISOLATED HIGH-BASED
THUNDERSTORMS ALONG A LEE TROUGH DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EARLY
EVENING. INVERTED-V THERMODYNAMIC PROFILES WITH DCAPE OF 1000-1500
J/KG WILL FAVOR STRONG TO LOCALLY SEVERE OUTFLOW GUSTS WITH
SEMI-ORGANIZED CELLS, BASED ON THE STEEP LAPSE RATES AND MODERATELY
ELONGATED, STRAIGHT HODOGRAPHS. AN LP-SUPERCELL WITH A MARGINAL HAIL
THREAT IS PLAUSIBLE TOWARDS THE BIG BEND/LOWER PECOS VALLEY OWING TO
GREATER ELONGATION OF THE HODOGRAPH AND MLCAPE NEAR 500 J/KG.
READ MORE
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SPC DAY 2 FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK
SPC DAY 2 FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK
DAY 2 FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0216 PM CDT MON APR 17 2023
VALID 181200Z - 191200Z
...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR MUCH OF NEW MEXICO INTO PORTIONS
OF THE SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS....
...NEW MEXICO AND THE SOUTHERN/CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS...
WIDESPREAD CRITICAL FIRE-WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED D2/TUESDAY
AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING UPPER TROUGH AND STRONG MID-LEVEL FLOW. A
SHARPENING DRYLINE WILL SUPPORT WEST/SOUTHWEST SURFACE WINDS OF
20-25 MPH WITHIN AREAS OF RH BELOW 15% FROM CENTRAL AND EASTERN NM
INTO WEST TX.
FARTHER NORTH ACROSS THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS, WIDESPREAD CRITICAL
FIRE-WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE ALSO EXPECTED. DESPITE SOME AREAS OF
WETTING PRECIPITATION OVER THE PAST 72 HOURS, RAPID DRYING AND
STRONG DOWNSLOPE FLOW OVER THE ROCKIES WILL SUPPORT RH VALUES BELOW
15% WITH WINDS GUST 20-25 MPH. LESS CONFIDENCE IN FUELS EXISTS
FARTHER NORTH AND EAST ACROSS PORTIONS OF CO AND NE GIVEN LOCALLY
HEAVIER PRECIPITATION. HOWEVER, THE STRONG WINDS AND LOW HUMIDITY
POST DRYLINE WILL LIKELY STILL SUPPORT A RISK FOR CRITICAL
FIRE-WEATHER TUESDAY AFTERNOON.
..LYONS.. 04/17/2023
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0210 AM CDT MON APR 17 2023/
...SYNOPSIS...
A MID-LEVEL TROUGH WILL IMPINGE ON THE PLAINS STATES
TOMORROW/TUESDAY, RESULTING IN SURFACE LOW DEVELOPMENT AND
ASSOCIATED DRY DOWNSLOPE FLOW ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN HIGH
PLAINS. WIDESPREAD ELEVATED CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY THROUGHOUT THE
SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS, WITH CRITICAL HIGHLIGHTS ADDED
WHERE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO EXCEED 20 MPH AMID 10-15 PERCENT RH AND
DRY FUELS.
A MID-LEVEL TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW WILL CONTINUE TO DRIFT
AWAY FROM THE EAST COAST, THOUGH DRY AND BREEZY CONDITIONS SHOULD
LINGER EAST OF THE APPALACHIANS. GUIDANCE CONSENSUS DEPICTS 15+ MPH
SUSTAINED WESTERLY SURFACE WINDS OVERLAPPING 15-25 PERCENT RH FOR AT
LEAST A FEW HOURS TUESDAY AFTERNOON ACROSS SOUTHERN VA. FUELS IN THE
AREA ARE RELATIVELY DRY DESPITE GREEN-UP (GIVEN AN ONGOING DROUGHT).
ELEVATED HIGHLIGHTS HAVE BEEN ADDED WHERE THE AFOREMENTIONED DRY AND
WINDY SURFACE CONDITIONS OVERLAP WITH FUELS THAT HAVE NOT
EXPERIENCED APPRECIABLE RAINFALL IN THE PAST WEEK.
...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV/FIRE FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
READ MORE
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