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LU9DCE > ALERT 19.04.23 07:01z 114 Lines 3684 Bytes #999 (0) @ WW
BID : 8511_LU9DCE
Read: GUEST
Subj: STORM PREDICTION CENTER 19-APR23
Path: HB9ON<IW0QNL<IZ3LSV<I0OJJ<LU4ECL<LU9DCE
Sent: 230419/0600Z 8511@LU9DCE.TOR.BA.ARG.SOAM LinBPQ6.0.23
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PACKET RADIO STATION - BUENOS AIRES (GF05OM)
PHP SCHEDULED NEWSLETTERS (PSN)
COPYRIGHT 2023 - EDUARDO A. CASTILLO
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SPC - NO WATCHES ARE VALID AS OF WED APR 19 03:53:01 UTC 2023
NO WATCHES ARE VALID AS OF WED APR 19 03:53:01 UTC 2023.
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SPC MD 557
MD 0557 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY FOR EASTERN NEBRASKA INTO
FAR WESTERN IOWA
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0557
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0945 PM CDT TUE APR 18 2023
AREAS AFFECTED...EASTERN NEBRASKA INTO FAR WESTERN IOWA
CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY
VALID 190245Z - 190545Z
PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...20 PERCENT
SUMMARY...A CLUSTER OF STORMS MAY PRODUCE SPORADIC SEVERE HAIL
AND/OR WIND GUSTS AS IT APPROACHES THE MISSOURI RIVER.
DISCUSSION...A BATCH OF ELEVATED STORMS CONTINUES TO TREK QUICKLY
EAST/NORTHEASTWARD INTO EASTERN NE, WITH INDICATIONS OF SEVERE HAIL
AND CONVECTIVELY ENHANCED WIND GUSTS. THIS ACTIVITY IS CLOSE TO A
WARM FRONT WHICH WILL CONTINUE TO PROVIDE LIFT AS BOTH THE STORMS
AND BOUNDARY GAIN LATITUDE.
WHILE THE SURFACE AIR MASS IS NOT VERY UNSTABLE ALONG AND EAST OF
THE WARM FRONT, STRONG WINDS JUST OFF THE SURFACE AND UP TO 700 MB
OUT OF THE SOUTH WILL MAINTAIN FAVORABLE STORM RELATIVE INFLOW INTO
THESE ELEVATED CELLS. GIVEN A SOMEWHAT ORGANIZED AND LONG-LIVED
CLUSTER, THESE STORMS ARE FORECAST TO PERSIST FOR A FEW MORE HOURS.
ALTHOUGH COOL IN THE LOW LEVELS, THE LOW-RH BOUNDARY LAYER MAY AID
IN EVAPORATIVE COOLING AND DOWNDRAFT POTENTIAL, ESPECIALLY WITH
COLD, HAIL-LADEN DOWNDRAFTS.
..JEWELL/EDWARDS.. 04/19/2023
...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
ATTN...WFO...OAX...GID...
LAT...LON 41509823 41999629 41879582 41479550 40989552 40739577
40369763 40519789 41039830 41509823
READ MORE
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SPC APR 19, 2023 0100 UTC DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
SPC 0100Z DAY 1 OUTLOOK
DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK CORR 1
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1048 PM CDT TUE APR 18 2023
VALID 190100Z - 191200Z
...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF
SOUTH DAKOTA...NEBRASKA...WESTERN/CENTRAL IOWA...AND SOUTHWEST
MINNESOTA...
CORRECTED FOR VALID TIME ERROR
...SUMMARY...
ISOLATED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE THE REMAINDER OF THE
EVENING INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS ACROSS PARTS OF SOUTH DAKOTA,
NEBRASKA, SOUTHWEST MINNESOTA AND WESTERN/CENTRAL IOWA.
...01Z UPDATE...
THE MARGINAL RISK (LEVEL 1 OF 5) HAS BEEN REMOVED ALONG MUCH OF THE
DRYLINE FROM KS INTO WESTERN OK/NORTHWEST TX. ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
WILL CONTINUE NEAR THE NE/KS BORDER, SHIFTING EAST/NORTHEAST THROUGH
THE REMAINDER OF THE EVENING, BUT ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPMENT IS UNEXPECTED FURTHER SOUTH. THUNDERSTORMS OVER EASTERN
WY INTO WESTERN SD/NE WILL PERCOLATE EASTWARD, AND SOME ADDITIONAL
DEVELOPMENT IS EXPECTED OVERNIGHT WITH THIS ACTIVITY, AS WELL AS AN
INCREASE IN COVERAGE WITH THE SOUTH-CENTRAL NE CLUSTER. AS THIS
CONVECTION SHIFTS EAST/NORTHEAST OVERNIGHT TOWARD EASTERN SD,
SOUTHWEST MN AND WESTERN/CENTRAL IA, SPORADIC STRONG GUSTS AND HAIL
WILL BE POSSIBLE.
..LEITMAN.. 04/19/2023
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