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LU9DCE > ALERT 21.04.23 06:06z 592 Lines 14911 Bytes #999 (0) @ WW
BID : 8627_LU9DCE
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Subj: STORM PREDICTION CENTER 21-APR23
Path: HB9ON<IW8PGT<I3XTY<I0OJJ<LU4ECL<LU9DCE
Sent: 230421/0600Z 8627@LU9DCE.TOR.BA.ARG.SOAM LinBPQ6.0.23
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SPC SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 156
WW 156 SEVERE TSTM LA TX CW 210110Z - 210700Z
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH NUMBER 156
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
810 PM CDT THU APR 20 2023
THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A
* SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF
WESTERN LOUISIANA
EASTERN AND SOUTHEASTERN TEXAS
COASTAL WATERS
* EFFECTIVE THIS THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY MORNING FROM 810 PM
UNTIL 200 AM CDT.
* PRIMARY THREATS INCLUDE...
SCATTERED LARGE HAIL AND ISOLATED VERY LARGE HAIL EVENTS TO 2.5
INCHES IN DIAMETER POSSIBLE
SCATTERED DAMAGING WIND GUSTS TO 70 MPH POSSIBLE
SUMMARY...ONGOING THUNDERSTORMS MOVING ACROSS CENTRAL AND EASTERN
TEXAS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS. WITH
SOME UPSCALE GROWTH INTO A BOWING MCS NOW UNDERWAY, MOVING
EAST-SOUTHEASTWARD OUT OF CENTRAL TEXAS, RISK FOR DAMAGING WINDS
WILL LIKELY SPREAD ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE UPPER AND MIDDLE TEXAS
COASTAL PLAIN OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS, ALONG WITH POTENTIAL FOR
LARGE HAIL AND POSSIBLY A TORNADO. ELSEWHERE, MORE ISOLATED SEVERE
STORMS WILL LIKELY PERSIST THROUGH THIS EVENING, ALSO POSING
LOCAL/ALL-HAZARD SEVERE RISK.
THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 60
STATUTE MILES EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 25 MILES NORTH OF FORT POLK
LA TO 35 MILES WEST NORTHWEST OF PALACIOS TX. FOR A COMPLETE
DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE THE ASSOCIATED WATCH OUTLINE UPDATE
(WOUS64 KWNS WOU6).
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
REMEMBER...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE
FAVORABLE FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH AREA.
PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR THREATENING
WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS AND POSSIBLE
WARNINGS. SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAN AND OCCASIONALLY DO PRODUCE
TORNADOES.
&&
OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 152...WW 153...WW 155...
AVIATION...A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH HAIL SURFACE AND ALOFT TO
2.5 INCHES. EXTREME TURBULENCE AND SURFACE WIND GUSTS TO 60 KNOTS. A
FEW CUMULONIMBI WITH MAXIMUM TOPS TO 550. MEAN STORM MOTION VECTOR
29035.
...GOSS
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SPC SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 153
WW 153 SEVERE TSTM AR LA OK TX 201850Z - 210200Z
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH NUMBER 153
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
150 PM CDT THU APR 20 2023
THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A
* SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF
SOUTHWEST ARKANSAS
NORTHWEST LOUISIANA
FAR SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA
CENTRAL TO NORTHEAST TEXAS
* EFFECTIVE THIS THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING FROM 150 PM UNTIL
900 PM CDT.
* PRIMARY THREATS INCLUDE...
SCATTERED LARGE HAIL AND ISOLATED VERY LARGE HAIL EVENTS TO 2.5
INCHES IN DIAMETER POSSIBLE
SCATTERED DAMAGING WIND GUSTS TO 70 MPH POSSIBLE
A TORNADO OR TWO POSSIBLE
SUMMARY...A MIX OF SUPERCELLS AND MULTICELL CLUSTERS ARE EXPECTED TO
DEVELOP AND SPREAD EAST THROUGH MID EVENING. LARGE HAIL WILL BE THE
PRIMARY THREAT EARLY, FOLLOWED BY DAMAGING WINDS LATER.
THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 100
STATUTE MILES EAST AND WEST OF A LINE FROM 35 MILES NORTHEAST OF
TEXARKANA AR TO 25 MILES EAST SOUTHEAST OF TEMPLE TX. FOR A COMPLETE
DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE THE ASSOCIATED WATCH OUTLINE UPDATE
(WOUS64 KWNS WOU3).
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
REMEMBER...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE
FAVORABLE FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH AREA.
PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR THREATENING
WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS AND POSSIBLE
WARNINGS. SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAN AND OCCASIONALLY DO PRODUCE
TORNADOES.
&&
OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 151...WW 152...
AVIATION...A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH HAIL SURFACE AND ALOFT TO
2.5 INCHES. EXTREME TURBULENCE AND SURFACE WIND GUSTS TO 60 KNOTS. A
FEW CUMULONIMBI WITH MAXIMUM TOPS TO 500. MEAN STORM MOTION VECTOR
27030.
...GRAMS
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SPC SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 152
WW 152 SEVERE TSTM AR OK 201835Z - 210200Z
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH NUMBER 152
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
135 PM CDT THU APR 20 2023
THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A
* SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF
ARKANSAS
SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA
* EFFECTIVE THIS THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING FROM 135 PM UNTIL
900 PM CDT.
* PRIMARY THREATS INCLUDE...
ISOLATED VERY LARGE HAIL EVENTS TO 2 INCHES IN DIAMETER POSSIBLE
ISOLATED DAMAGING WIND GUSTS TO 65 MPH POSSIBLE
SUMMARY...A MIX OF TRANSIENT SUPERCELLS AND MULTICELL CLUSTERS ARE
EXPECTED THROUGH MID-EVENING ALONG A COLD FRONT PUSHING EAST.
THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 85
STATUTE MILES EAST AND WEST OF A LINE FROM 30 MILES NORTHEAST OF
FLIPPIN AR TO 30 MILES SOUTHWEST OF HOT SPRINGS AR. FOR A COMPLETE
DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE THE ASSOCIATED WATCH OUTLINE UPDATE
(WOUS64 KWNS WOU2).
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
REMEMBER...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE
FAVORABLE FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH AREA.
PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR THREATENING
WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS AND POSSIBLE
WARNINGS. SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAN AND OCCASIONALLY DO PRODUCE
TORNADOES.
&&
OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 151...
AVIATION...A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH HAIL SURFACE AND ALOFT TO
2 INCHES. EXTREME TURBULENCE AND SURFACE WIND GUSTS TO 55 KNOTS. A
FEW CUMULONIMBI WITH MAXIMUM TOPS TO 450. MEAN STORM MOTION VECTOR
25030.
...GRAMS
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SPC SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 156 STATUS REPORTS
WW 0156 STATUS UPDATES
STATUS REPORT ON WW 156
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 SW CLL TO
25 SE CLL TO 10 SSE UTS TO 20 SW LFK TO 30 NNE LFK.
..BENTLEY..04/21/23
ATTN...WFO...LCH...SHV...CRP...HGX...EWX...
STATUS REPORT FOR WS 156
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
LAC011-019-023-031-069-081-085-115-210440-
LA
. LOUISIANA PARISHES INCLUDED ARE
BEAUREGARD CALCASIEU CAMERON
DE SOTO NATCHITOCHES RED RIVER
SABINE VERNON
TXC005-007-015-039-057-071-089-123-149-157-167-175-177-185-199-
201-239-241-245-255-285-291-321-339-347-351-361-365-373-391-403-
405-407-419-457-469-473-477-481-210440-
TX
. TEXAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
ANGELINA ARANSAS AUSTIN
BRAZORIA CALHOUN CHAMBERS
COLORADO DEWITT FAYETTE
FORT BEND GALVESTON GOLIAD
GONZALES GRIMES HARDIN
HARRIS JACKSON JASPER
JEFFERSON KARNES LAVACA
LIBERTY MATAGORDA MONTGOMERY
READ MORE
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SPC SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 155 STATUS REPORTS
WW 0155 STATUS UPDATES
STATUS REPORT ON WW 155
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 60 N DRT TO
15 SE JCT TO 35 WNW AUS TO 30 NE AUS TO 35 WNW CLL.
..BENTLEY..04/21/23
ATTN...WFO...EWX...SJT...
STATUS REPORT FOR WS 155
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
TXC013-019-021-029-031-055-091-127-137-163-171-187-209-259-265-
271-287-323-325-385-453-463-493-507-210340-
TX
. TEXAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
ATASCOSA BANDERA BASTROP
BEXAR BLANCO CALDWELL
COMAL DIMMIT EDWARDS
FRIO GILLESPIE GUADALUPE
HAYS KENDALL KERR
KINNEY LEE MAVERICK
MEDINA REAL TRAVIS
UVALDE WILSON ZAVALA
THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE
REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL
INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES
CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES.
READ MORE
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SPC TORNADO WATCH 154 STATUS REPORTS
WW 0154 STATUS UPDATES
STATUS REPORT ON WW 154
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 40 SE MMO TO
35 W BEH.
..MOORE..04/21/23
ATTN...WFO...DVN...LOT...ILX...MKX...
STATUS REPORT FOR WT 154
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
ILC091-210140-
IL
. ILLINOIS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
KANKAKEE
THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE
REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL
INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES
CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES.
READ MORE
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SPC SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 153 STATUS REPORTS
WW 0153 STATUS UPDATES
STATUS REPORT ON WW 153
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 45 WSW TPL
TO 15 ESE ACT TO 35 NE DEQ.
..MOORE..04/21/23
ATTN...WFO...SHV...FWD...HGX...
STATUS REPORT FOR WS 153
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
ARC027-057-061-073-081-091-099-133-139-210140-
AR
. ARKANSAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
COLUMBIA HEMPSTEAD HOWARD
LAFAYETTE LITTLE RIVER MILLER
NEVADA SEVIER UNION
LAC013-015-017-027-031-061-081-111-119-210140-
LA
. LOUISIANA PARISHES INCLUDED ARE
BIENVILLE BOSSIER CADDO
CLAIBORNE DE SOTO LINCOLN
RED RIVER UNION WEBSTER
TXC001-027-037-041-051-063-067-073-145-159-161-183-185-203-213-
225-289-293-313-315-331-343-347-365-395-401-419-423-449-459-467-
471-499-210140-
TX
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SPC SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 152 STATUS REPORTS
WW 0152 STATUS UPDATES
STATUS REPORT ON WW 152
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 10 NE DEQ TO
25 N HOT TO 20 SW BVX TO 25 W POF.
..MOORE..04/21/23
ATTN...WFO...LZK...TSA...
STATUS REPORT FOR WS 152
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
ARC011-013-019-025-039-045-051-053-059-063-067-069-075-085-097-
103-105-109-117-119-121-125-135-145-147-210140-
AR
. ARKANSAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
BRADLEY CALHOUN CLARK
CLEVELAND DALLAS FAULKNER
GARLAND GRANT HOT SPRING
INDEPENDENCE JACKSON JEFFERSON
LAWRENCE LONOKE MONTGOMERY
OUACHITA PERRY PIKE
PRAIRIE PULASKI RANDOLPH
SALINE SHARP WHITE
WOODRUFF
THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE
REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL
INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES
CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES.
READ MORE
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SPC SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 151 STATUS REPORTS
WW 0151 STATUS UPDATES
STATUS REPORT ON WW 151
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 NW ARG TO
10 ENE FAM TO 20 E ALN TO 30 NE ALN TO 30 E BMI.
..MOORE..04/21/23
ATTN...WFO...LSX...ILX...SGF...
STATUS REPORT FOR WS 151
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
ILC005-021-027-049-051-115-121-135-139-147-157-173-189-210140-
IL
. ILLINOIS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
BOND CHRISTIAN CLINTON
EFFINGHAM FAYETTE MACON
MARION MONTGOMERY MOULTRIE
PIATT RANDOLPH SHELBY
WASHINGTON
MOC123-210140-
MO
. MISSOURI COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
MADISON
THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE
REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL
INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES
CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES.
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SPC MD 586
MD 0586 CONCERNING SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 156... FOR SOUTHEAST
TEXAS...WESTERN LOUISIANA
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0586
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1037 PM CDT THU APR 20 2023
AREAS AFFECTED...SOUTHEAST TEXAS...WESTERN LOUISIANA
CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 156...
VALID 210337Z - 210500Z
THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 156
CONTINUES.
SUMMARY...HAIL/WIND THREAT CONTINUES WITH CONVECTION LATE THIS
EVENING.
DISCUSSION...LEADING EDGE OF A SLOWLY EXPANDING MCS IS PROGRESSING
ACROSS NORTHERN PORTIONS OF WW156. MCV HAS DEVELOPED WITHIN THIS
CLUSTER AND IS CURRENTLY JUST EAST OF LOVELADY ALONG THE
HOUSTON/TRINITY COUNTY LINE MOVING EAST. SEVERAL EMBEDDED LINE
SEGMENTS AND SUPERCELLS WILL PROPAGATE SOUTHEAST AS THIS COMPLEX OF
STORMS ADVANCES TOWARD THE SABINE RIVER.
GREATEST BUOYANCY CONTINUES ACROSS SOUTH-CENTRAL TX INTO DEEP SOUTH
TX WHERE MLCAPE VALUES ARE IN EXCESS OF 2000 J/KG. WHILE THIS AREA
IS EXPERIENCING INCREASING INHIBITION, FRONTAL CONVERGENCE WILL
LIKELY CONTINUE TO AID SCATTERED CONVECTION ALONG THE WIND SHIFT AS
IT ADVANCES SOUTH. HAIL/WIND THREAT CONTINUES.
..DARROW.. 04/21/2023
...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
ATTN...WFO...LCH...SHV...HGX...CRP...EWX...
LAT...LON 29629733 32129374 30689260 28199621 29629733
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SPC APR 21, 2023 0100 UTC DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
SPC 0100Z DAY 1 OUTLOOK
DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0806 PM CDT THU APR 20 2023
VALID 210100Z - 211200Z
...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM CENTRAL/EAST
TX INTO AR AND WESTERN LA...
...SUMMARY...
SCATTERED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS REMAIN POSSIBLE TONIGHT, MAINLY
ACROSS PARTS OF CENTRAL AND EAST TEXAS INTO ARKANSAS AND WESTERN
LOUISIANA. DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL WILL REMAIN THE PRIMARY
HAZARDS, BUT A COUPLE TORNADOES ARE ALSO POSSIBLE.
...TX INTO THE MID MS VALLEY...
EXTENSIVE CONVECTION IS ONGOING THIS EVENING FROM CENTRAL TX
NORTHEASTWARD TOWARD PARTS OF THE GREAT LAKES REGION, ALONG/AHEAD OF
A COLD FRONT. STORMS FROM NORTHERN AR INTO IL/IN AND LOWER MI ARE
MOVING INTO A LESS UNSTABLE ENVIRONMENT, AND A GRADUAL WEAKENING
TREND IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE WITH THE ONSET OF NOCTURNAL
COOLING/STABILIZATION.
STRONGER INSTABILITY (MLCAPE OF 1500-3000 J/KG) REMAINS IN PLACE
FROM SOUTH-CENTRAL TX INTO THE ARKLATEX. EFFECTIVE SHEAR OF 30-40 KT
WILL REMAIN MODESTLY FAVORABLE FOR ORGANIZED CONVECTION FOR MUCH OF
THE EVENING. THE STRONGER SEMI-DISCRETE CELLS IN THIS REGION WILL
REMAIN CAPABLE OF PRODUCING LARGE HAIL, LOCALLY DAMAGING GUSTS, AND
POSSIBLY A TORNADO OR TWO. MEANWHILE, AN ONGOING BOWING SEGMENT
ACROSS CENTRAL TX MAY CONTINUE PROPAGATING SOUTHEASTWARD TOWARD THE
UPPER TX COAST, MAINTAINING A THREAT OF LOCALLY DAMAGING GUSTS.
WITH THE PRIMARY COLD FRONT STILL WEST OF THE MAJORITY OF ONGOING
CONVECTION, ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT WILL BE POSSIBLE LATER THIS
EVENING INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. DEPENDING ON THE EVOLUTION OF
CONVECTION THIS EVENING, ADDITIONAL STRONG THUNDERSTORM CLUSTERS
CANNOT BE RULED OUT OVERNIGHT, WITH A CONTINUED THREAT OF LOCALLY
DAMAGING GUSTS AND ISOLATED HAIL.
..DEAN.. 04/21/2023
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