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LU9DCE > ALERT 21.04.23 18:50z 605 Lines 16572 Bytes #999 (0) @ WW
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Subj: STORM PREDICTION CENTER 20-APR23
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Sent: 230420/0600Z 8580@LU9DCE.TOR.BA.ARG.SOAM LinBPQ6.0.23
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SPC TORNADO WATCH 148
WW 148 TORNADO OK 192340Z - 200500Z
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
TORNADO WATCH NUMBER 148
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
640 PM CDT WED APR 19 2023
THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A
* TORNADO WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF
NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA
* EFFECTIVE THIS WEDNESDAY NIGHT FROM 640 PM UNTIL MIDNIGHT CDT.
* PRIMARY THREATS INCLUDE...
A COUPLE TORNADOES POSSIBLE
SCATTERED LARGE HAIL LIKELY WITH ISOLATED VERY LARGE HAIL EVENTS
TO 2.5 INCHES IN DIAMETER POSSIBLE
SCATTERED DAMAGING WIND GUSTS TO 70 MPH POSSIBLE
SUMMARY...A CLUSTER OF SUPERCELLS WILL LIKELY PERSIST FOR A FEW MORE
HOURS INTO PARTS OF NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA. THIS WILL INCLUDE A LARGE
HAIL RISK INITIALLY, WITH THE TORNADO POTENTIAL LIKELY TO INCREASE
THROUGH THE EVENING.
THE TORNADO WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 25 STATUTE MILES
EAST AND WEST OF A LINE FROM 15 MILES WEST NORTHWEST OF BARTLESVILLE
OK TO 65 MILES SOUTH SOUTHWEST OF TULSA OK. FOR A COMPLETE DEPICTION
OF THE WATCH SEE THE ASSOCIATED WATCH OUTLINE UPDATE (WOUS64 KWNS
WOU8).
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
REMEMBER...A TORNADO WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE FOR
TORNADOES AND SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH
AREA. PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR
THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS
AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS.
&&
OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 145...WW 146...WW 147...
AVIATION...TORNADOES AND A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH HAIL
SURFACE AND ALOFT TO 2.5 INCHES. EXTREME TURBULENCE AND SURFACE WIND
GUSTS TO 60 KNOTS. A FEW CUMULONIMBI WITH MAXIMUM TOPS TO 550. MEAN
STORM MOTION VECTOR 22030.
...GUYER
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SPC TORNADO WATCH 147
WW 147 TORNADO OK TX 192145Z - 200400Z
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
TORNADO WATCH NUMBER 147
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
445 PM CDT WED APR 19 2023
THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A
* TORNADO WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF
SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL OKLAHOMA
WESTERN NORTH TEXAS
* EFFECTIVE THIS WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING FROM 445 PM
UNTIL 1100 PM CDT.
* PRIMARY THREATS INCLUDE...
A COUPLE TORNADOES POSSIBLE
SCATTERED LARGE HAIL LIKELY WITH ISOLATED VERY LARGE HAIL EVENTS
TO 3 INCHES IN DIAMETER POSSIBLE
SCATTERED DAMAGING WIND GUSTS TO 70 MPH POSSIBLE
SUMMARY...AT LEAST ISOLATED SEVERE STORMS, INCLUDING SUPERCELLS, ARE
EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AND INCREASE THROUGH LATE AFTERNOON/EARLY
EVENING. LOCALLY VERY LARGE HAIL WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH ANY SUPERCELL
STORMS, AND TORNADO POTENTIAL SHOULD INCREASE TOWARD/JUST AFTER
SUNSET AS THE LOW-LEVEL JET INCREASES AND STORMS INTERCEPT SOMEWHAT
RICHER LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE NEAR THE INTERSTATE 44/INTERSTATE 35
CORRIDORS.
THE TORNADO WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 60 STATUTE MILES
EAST AND WEST OF A LINE FROM 45 MILES NORTHWEST OF CHANDLER OK TO 35
MILES SOUTH OF WICHITA FALLS TX. FOR A COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE
WATCH SEE THE ASSOCIATED WATCH OUTLINE UPDATE (WOUS64 KWNS WOU7).
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
REMEMBER...A TORNADO WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE FOR
TORNADOES AND SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH
AREA. PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR
THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS
AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS.
&&
OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 145...WW 146...
AVIATION...TORNADOES AND A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH HAIL
SURFACE AND ALOFT TO 3 INCHES. EXTREME TURBULENCE AND SURFACE WIND
GUSTS TO 60 KNOTS. A FEW CUMULONIMBI WITH MAXIMUM TOPS TO 550. MEAN
STORM MOTION VECTOR 22025.
...GUYER
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SPC SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 146
WW 146 SEVERE TSTM IA MN 192050Z - 200400Z
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH NUMBER 146
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
350 PM CDT WED APR 19 2023
THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A
* SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF
NORTHWEST TO NORTH-CENTRAL IOWA
FAR SOUTHWEST MINNESOTA
* EFFECTIVE THIS WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING FROM 350 PM
UNTIL 1100 PM CDT.
* PRIMARY THREATS INCLUDE...
SCATTERED LARGE HAIL AND ISOLATED VERY LARGE HAIL EVENTS TO 2
INCHES IN DIAMETER POSSIBLE
ISOLATED DAMAGING WIND GUSTS TO 60 MPH POSSIBLE
A TORNADO OR TWO POSSIBLE
SUMMARY...A SUPERCELL CLUSTER SHOULD DEVELOP NORTHEAST FROM THE
MID-MISSOURI VALLEY AND POSE A PRIMARY THREAT OF LARGE HAIL NORTH OF
THE SURFACE WARM FRONT.
THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 45
STATUTE MILES NORTH AND SOUTH OF A LINE FROM 50 MILES WEST SOUTHWEST
OF WORTHINGTON MN TO 30 MILES NORTHEAST OF FORT DODGE IA. FOR A
COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE THE ASSOCIATED WATCH OUTLINE
UPDATE (WOUS64 KWNS WOU6).
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
REMEMBER...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE
FAVORABLE FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH AREA.
PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR THREATENING
WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS AND POSSIBLE
WARNINGS. SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAN AND OCCASIONALLY DO PRODUCE
TORNADOES.
&&
AVIATION...A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH HAIL SURFACE AND ALOFT TO
2 INCHES. EXTREME TURBULENCE AND SURFACE WIND GUSTS TO 50 KNOTS. A
FEW CUMULONIMBI WITH MAXIMUM TOPS TO 450. MEAN STORM MOTION VECTOR
23030.
...GRAMS
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SPC TORNADO WATCH 145
WW 145 TORNADO IA KS MO NE 192045Z - 200400Z
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
TORNADO WATCH NUMBER 145
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
345 PM CDT WED APR 19 2023
THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A
* TORNADO WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF
WESTERN IOWA
NORTHEAST KANSAS
NORTHWEST MISSOURI
SOUTHEAST NEBRASKA
* EFFECTIVE THIS WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING FROM 345 PM
UNTIL 1100 PM CDT.
* PRIMARY THREATS INCLUDE...
A FEW TORNADOES POSSIBLE
SCATTERED LARGE HAIL AND ISOLATED VERY LARGE HAIL EVENTS TO 3
INCHES IN DIAMETER LIKELY
SCATTERED DAMAGING WINDS AND ISOLATED SIGNIFICANT GUSTS TO 75
MPH POSSIBLE
SUMMARY...MULTIPLE SUPERCELL CLUSTERS SHOULD DEVELOP ACROSS THE
MID-MISSOURI VALLEY INTO NORTHEAST KANSAS THIS EVENING. GREATER
TORNADO THREAT SHOULD BE NEAR THE SURFACE WARM FRONT, WITH VERY
LARGE HAIL THE MOST PROBABLE THREAT IN TERMS OF COVERAGE.
THE TORNADO WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 60 STATUTE MILES
EAST AND WEST OF A LINE FROM 25 MILES EAST SOUTHEAST OF MANHATTAN KS
TO 35 MILES NORTH NORTHEAST OF DENISON IA. FOR A COMPLETE DEPICTION
OF THE WATCH SEE THE ASSOCIATED WATCH OUTLINE UPDATE (WOUS64 KWNS
WOU5).
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
REMEMBER...A TORNADO WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE FOR
TORNADOES AND SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH
AREA. PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR
THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS
AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS.
&&
AVIATION...TORNADOES AND A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH HAIL
SURFACE AND ALOFT TO 3 INCHES. EXTREME TURBULENCE AND SURFACE WIND
GUSTS TO 65 KNOTS. A FEW CUMULONIMBI WITH MAXIMUM TOPS TO 500. MEAN
STORM MOTION VECTOR 22030.
...GRAMS
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SPC TORNADO WATCH 148 STATUS REPORTS
WW 0148 STATUS UPDATES
STATUS REPORT ON WW 148
THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS THE ENTIRE WATCH AREA.
..BENTLEY..04/20/23
ATTN...WFO...TSA...
STATUS REPORT FOR WT 148
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
OKC037-107-111-113-117-143-147-200440-
OK
. OKLAHOMA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
CREEK OKFUSKEE OKMULGEE
OSAGE PAWNEE TULSA
WASHINGTON
THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE
REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL
INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES
CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES.
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SPC TORNADO WATCH 147 STATUS REPORTS
WW 0147 STATUS UPDATES
STATUS REPORT ON WW 147
THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS THE ENTIRE WATCH AREA.
..BENTLEY..04/20/23
ATTN...WFO...OUN...FWD...
STATUS REPORT FOR WT 147
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
OKC027-049-081-087-099-109-119-123-125-133-200440-
OK
. OKLAHOMA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
CLEVELAND GARVIN LINCOLN
MCCLAIN MURRAY OKLAHOMA
PAYNE PONTOTOC POTTAWATOMIE
SEMINOLE
THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE
REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL
INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES
CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES.
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SPC SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 146 STATUS REPORTS
WW 0146 STATUS UPDATES
STATUS REPORT ON WW 146
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 WNW SUX
TO 20 SSE MKT.
..MOORE..04/20/23
ATTN...WFO...FSD...DMX...
STATUS REPORT FOR WS 146
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
IAC021-035-041-063-079-091-109-147-151-187-197-200140-
IA
. IOWA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
BUENA VISTA CHEROKEE CLAY
EMMET HAMILTON HUMBOLDT
KOSSUTH PALO ALTO POCAHONTAS
WEBSTER WRIGHT
THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE
REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL
INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES
CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES.
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SPC TORNADO WATCH 145 STATUS REPORTS
WW 0145 STATUS UPDATES
STATUS REPORT ON WW 145
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 NNE SLN
TO 25 NE BIE TO 10 NNW SUX.
..MOORE..04/20/23
ATTN...WFO...DMX...OAX...FSD...EAX...TOP...
STATUS REPORT FOR WT 145
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
IAC001-003-009-015-025-027-029-047-049-071-073-077-085-093-121-
129-133-137-145-155-159-161-165-173-175-193-200140-
IA
. IOWA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
ADAIR ADAMS AUDUBON
BOONE CALHOUN CARROLL
CASS CRAWFORD DALLAS
FREMONT GREENE GUTHRIE
HARRISON IDA MADISON
MILLS MONONA MONTGOMERY
PAGE POTTAWATTAMIE RINGGOLD
SAC SHELBY TAYLOR
UNION WOODBURY
KSC005-013-027-041-043-061-085-087-117-127-131-149-161-177-197-
200140-
KS
. KANSAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
ATCHISON BROWN CLAY
DICKINSON DONIPHAN GEARY
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SPC MD 569
MD 0569 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH LIKELY FOR CENTRAL INTO NORTHEAST
KANSAS AND FAR SOUTHEAST NEBRASKA
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0569
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1053 PM CDT WED APR 19 2023
AREAS AFFECTED...CENTRAL INTO NORTHEAST KANSAS AND FAR SOUTHEAST
NEBRASKA
CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH LIKELY
VALID 200353Z - 200600Z
PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...80 PERCENT
SUMMARY...STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST ACROSS NORTHEAST KANSAS,
WITH A RAPID GROWTH OF A LINE OF STORMS POSSIBLE ALONG A COLD FRONT.
DAMAGING WINDS AND HAIL WILL BE POSSIBLE, AND AN ADDITIONAL WATCH
MAY BE NEEDED SOON.
DISCUSSION...A LINE OF STORMS CONTINUES TO PUSH EAST INTO NORTHWEST
MO, WITH ADDITIONAL CELLS PERSISTING ACROSS NORTHEAST KS. IN THIS
AREA, STRONG WARM ADVECTION CONTINUES NEAR AND ATOP EARLIER OUTFLOW,
AIDING LIFT WITH SEVERE HAIL EVIDENT IN ONGOING CELLS.
FARTHER WEST, SURFACE OBSERVATIONS SHOW A RAPIDLY RETREATING DRYLINE
INTO SOUTH-CENTRAL KS, WITH SOUTHERLY SURFACE WINDS GUSTING WELL
OVER 30 KT AND DEWPOINTS INTO THE LOWER 60S F. IR IMAGERY CLEARLY
SHOWS THE WARMING/THETA-E RETURN ACROSS KS.
MEANWHILE, A STRONG COLD FRONT IS SURGING ACROSS WESTERN KS AND
SOUTHWEST NE, WITH 50+ KT NON-CONVECTIVE WIND GUSTS. AS THIS FRONT
INTERCEPTS THE MOISTURE RETURN, A RAPID GROWTH OF STORMS PRODUCING
DAMAGING GUSTS AND HAIL WILL BE POSSIBLE. WHILE SRH WILL REMAIN
STRONG DUE TO THE LOW-LEVEL JET, THE TORNADO RISK SHOULD BE BRIEF AT
BEST GIVEN THE UNDERCUTTING COLD FRONT. A CONDITIONAL TORNADO RISK
EXISTS SHOULD A STORM FORM AHEAD OF THE FRONT, BUT CAPPING IS
EXPECTED TO MINIMIZE THAT POTENTIAL.
..JEWELL/GUYER.. 04/20/2023
...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
ATTN...WFO...EAX...OAX...TOP...ICT...GID...DDC...
LAT...LON 38189824 38209890 38599901 39019889 39379854 39969798
40579655 40509579 40119542 39579502 39119512 38719559
38279767 38189824
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SPC MD 567
MD 0567 CONCERNING TORNADO WATCH 145... FOR NORTHEAST KANSAS INTO WESTERN IOWA
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0567
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0821 PM CDT WED APR 19 2023
AREAS AFFECTED...NORTHEAST KANSAS INTO WESTERN IOWA
CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 145...
VALID 200121Z - 200445Z
THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR TORNADO WATCH 145 CONTINUES.
SUMMARY...THE THREAT FOR SCATTERED LARGE HAIL, AND PERHAPS A TORNADO
TWO CONTINUES ACROSS THE WATCH AREA FROM EASTERN KANSAS INTO WESTERN
IOWA.
DISCUSSION...STORMS ORIENTED NORTH TO SOUTH NEAR A SURFACE TROUGH
HAVE MOVED VERY LITTLE OVER THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS, WITH MOST OF THE
CELLS PRODUCING HAIL AT SOME POINT. 00Z SOUNDINGS ACROSS THE REGION
ALL HAVE STEEP LAPSE RATES ALOFT ALONG WITH MLCAPE AVERAGING
1500-2000 J/KG.
THE LOW-LEVEL JET WILL STRENGTHEN THIS EVENING, AND THIS MAY BOTH
INCREASE LOW-LEVEL SHEAR AND RIGHTWARD PROPAGATION WITH SOME OF THE
CELLS. CELLS THAT CAN REMAIN MORE ISOLATED WILL HAVE A BETTER CHANCE
AT PRODUCING A TORNADO, AS AREAS OF OUTFLOW HAVE BEEN PRODUCED.
..JEWELL.. 04/20/2023
...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
ATTN...WFO...DMX...EAX...FSD...OAX...TOP...ICT...
LAT...LON 38169700 42469536 42489469 42319399 41899361 41609348
38999452 38439496 38219555 38199620 38169700
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SPC APR 20, 2023 0100 UTC DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
SPC 0100Z DAY 1 OUTLOOK
DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0748 PM CDT WED APR 19 2023
VALID 200100Z - 201200Z
...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR NORTHEAST
KANSAS...SOUTHEAST NEBRASKA...NORTHWEST MISSOURI...AND SOUTHWEST
IOWA...
...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR CENTRAL OK
INTO NORTHWEST TX...
...SUMMARY...
MULTIPLE ROUNDS OF SCATTERED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED
TONIGHT ACROSS THE MID-MISSOURI VALLEY INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS.
VERY LARGE HAIL IS LIKELY, AND SIGNIFICANT SEVERE WIND GUSTS ALONG
WITH A FEW TORNADOES WILL BE POSSIBLE.
...CENTRAL PLAINS INTO THE MIDWEST...
SEVERAL SUPERCELLS ARE ONGOING THIS EVENING FROM EASTERN KS INTO
SOUTHEAST NE AND WESTERN IA. STEEP MIDLEVEL LAPSE RATES, MODERATE
BUOYANCY, AND SUFFICIENT DEEP-LAYER SHEAR (AS NOTED ON THE 00Z OAX
AND TOP SOUNDINGS) WILL CONTINUE TO SUPPORT SUPERCELLS AND ORGANIZED
CLUSTERS THIS EVENING, WITH A THREAT OF VERY LARGE HAIL AND SEVERE
GUSTS. AN INCREASING LOW-LEVEL JET WILL ALSO SUPPORT THE THREAT FOR
A COUPLE TORNADOES, WITH ANY SUPERCELLS THAT CAN PERSIST THROUGH THE
EVENING.
LATER TONIGHT, RENEWED STORM DEVELOPMENT IS EXPECTED FROM
NORTH-CENTRAL KS INTO CENTRAL NE, IN ASSOCIATION WITH A MIDLEVEL
SHORTWAVE TROUGH CURRENTLY MOVING ACROSS THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS.
THIS CONVECTION WILL POST-FRONTAL AND LIKELY SOMEWHAT ELEVATED, BUT
STEEP MIDLEVEL LAPSE RATES AND STRENGTHENING EFFECTIVE SHEAR WILL
SUPPORT HAIL (POSSIBLY VERY LARGE) WITH THE STRONGEST STORMS. SOME
THREAT FOR SEVERE/DAMAGING GUSTS WILL ALSO LIKELY DEVELOP OVERNIGHT
AS UPSCALE GROWTH INTO ONE OR MORE FORWARD-PROPAGATING CLUSTERS
OCCURS.
...SOUTHERN PLAINS...
INTENSE SUPERCELLS ARE ONGOING ACROSS CENTRAL OK THIS EVENING, WITH
MULTIPLE REPORTS OF VERY LARGE HAIL AND A COUPLE OF POSSIBLE
TORNADOES REPORTED. MODERATE-TO-STRONG BUOYANCY AND STRONG
DEEP-LAYER SHEAR WILL CONTINUE TO SUPPORT ORGANIZED CONVECTION
THROUGH THE EVENING, WITH SOME WEAKENING EXPECTED LATER TONIGHT AS
MLCINH INCREASES WITH TIME. VERY LARGE HAIL WILL CONTINUE TO BE A
THREAT. ALSO, THE OUN VWP HAS SHOWN NOTABLE STRENGTHENING OF
LOW-LEVEL FLOW/SHEAR, WHICH WILL SUPPORT A TORNADO THREAT WITH ANY
SUSTAINED SUPERCELL, INCLUDING A CONDITIONAL RISK OF A STRONG
TORNADO.
..DEAN.. 04/20/2023
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