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LU9DCE > ALERT 23.04.23 03:06z 440 Lines 11461 Bytes #999 (0) @ WW
BID : 8752_LU9DCE
Read: GUEST
Subj: STORM PREDICTION CENTER 22-APR23
Path: HB9ON<IW8PGT<I3XTY<I0OJJ<LU4ECL<LU9DCE
Sent: 230423/0300Z 8752@LU9DCE.TOR.BA.ARG.SOAM LinBPQ6.0.23
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PACKET RADIO STATION - BUENOS AIRES (GF05OM)
PHP SCHEDULED NEWSLETTERS (PSN)
COPYRIGHT 2023 - EDUARDO A. CASTILLO
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SPC SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 162
WW 162 SEVERE TSTM TX 221940Z - 230300Z
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH NUMBER 162
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
240 PM CDT SAT APR 22 2023
THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A
* SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF
CENTRAL TEXAS
* EFFECTIVE THIS SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING FROM 240 PM UNTIL
1000 PM CDT.
* PRIMARY THREATS INCLUDE...
SCATTERED LARGE HAIL LIKELY WITH ISOLATED VERY LARGE HAIL EVENTS
TO 3 INCHES IN DIAMETER POSSIBLE
SCATTERED DAMAGING WIND GUSTS TO 70 MPH POSSIBLE
A TORNADO OR TWO POSSIBLE
SUMMARY...THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP RAPIDLY THIS
AFTERNOON IN VICINITY OF A SURFACE BOUNDARY OVER CENTRAL TEXAS, AND
DRIFT SLOWLY EAST-SOUTHEASTWARD THROUGH THE EVENING. SUPERCELLS
CAPABLE OF VERY LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS ARE EXPECTED. A
TORNADO OR TWO IS ALSO POSSIBLE.
THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 60
STATUTE MILES NORTH AND SOUTH OF A LINE FROM 45 MILES WEST NORTHWEST
OF SAN ANGELO TX TO 85 MILES SOUTHEAST OF BROWNWOOD TX. FOR A
COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE THE ASSOCIATED WATCH OUTLINE
UPDATE (WOUS64 KWNS WOU2).
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
REMEMBER...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE
FAVORABLE FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH AREA.
PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR THREATENING
WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS AND POSSIBLE
WARNINGS. SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAN AND OCCASIONALLY DO PRODUCE
TORNADOES.
&&
OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 159...WW 160...WW 161...
AVIATION...A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH HAIL SURFACE AND ALOFT TO
3 INCHES. EXTREME TURBULENCE AND SURFACE WIND GUSTS TO 60 KNOTS. A
FEW CUMULONIMBI WITH MAXIMUM TOPS TO 500. MEAN STORM MOTION VECTOR
28025.
...HART
READ MORE
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SPC SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 161
WW 161 SEVERE TSTM NC SC CW 221920Z - 230300Z
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH NUMBER 161
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
320 PM EDT SAT APR 22 2023
THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A
* SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF
EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA
NORTHEAST SOUTH CAROLINA
COASTAL WATERS
* EFFECTIVE THIS SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING FROM 320 PM UNTIL
1100 PM EDT.
* PRIMARY THREATS INCLUDE...
SCATTERED DAMAGING WIND GUSTS TO 70 MPH POSSIBLE
SCATTERED LARGE HAIL EVENTS TO 1.5 INCHES IN DIAMETER POSSIBLE
SUMMARY...THUNDERSTORMS ARE INTENSIFYING ALONG/AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT
APPROACHING THE WATCH AREA. A FEW OF THESE STORMS WILL BECOME
SEVERE, CAPABLE OF DAMAGING WIND GUSTS AND HAIL THROUGH THE EARLY
EVENING.
THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 60
STATUTE MILES NORTH AND SOUTH OF A LINE FROM 30 MILES SOUTH
SOUTHWEST OF FLORENCE SC TO 35 MILES EAST NORTHEAST OF NEW BERN NC.
FOR A COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE THE ASSOCIATED WATCH
OUTLINE UPDATE (WOUS64 KWNS WOU1).
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
REMEMBER...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE
FAVORABLE FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH AREA.
PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR THREATENING
WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS AND POSSIBLE
WARNINGS. SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAN AND OCCASIONALLY DO PRODUCE
TORNADOES.
&&
OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 159...WW 160...
AVIATION...A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH HAIL SURFACE AND ALOFT TO
1.5 INCHES. EXTREME TURBULENCE AND SURFACE WIND GUSTS TO 60 KNOTS. A
FEW CUMULONIMBI WITH MAXIMUM TOPS TO 500. MEAN STORM MOTION VECTOR
24030.
...HART
READ MORE
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SPC SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 162 STATUS REPORTS
WW 0162 STATUS UPDATES
STATUS REPORT ON WW 162
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 50 S BGS TO
15 S BWD TO 25 ESE SEP.
..MOORE..04/23/23
ATTN...WFO...EWX...SJT...FWD...
STATUS REPORT FOR WS 162
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
TXC031-053-095-099-171-193-235-267-281-299-307-319-327-333-411-
413-435-451-230140-
TX
. TEXAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
BLANCO BURNET CONCHO
CORYELL GILLESPIE HAMILTON
IRION KIMBLE LAMPASAS
LLANO MCCULLOCH MASON
MENARD MILLS SAN SABA
SCHLEICHER SUTTON TOM GREEN
THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE
REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL
INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES
CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES.
READ MORE
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SPC SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 161 STATUS REPORTS
WW 0161 STATUS UPDATES
STATUS REPORT ON WW 161
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 40 SSE CRE
TO 30 NE CRE TO 5 SW OAJ TO 30 ENE RWI.
..MOORE..04/23/23
ATTN...WFO...MHX...ILM...
STATUS REPORT FOR WS 161
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
NCC013-019-031-049-103-117-129-133-137-141-147-187-230140-
NC
. NORTH CAROLINA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
BEAUFORT BRUNSWICK CARTERET
CRAVEN JONES MARTIN
NEW HANOVER ONSLOW PAMLICO
PENDER PITT WASHINGTON
AMZ136-137-158-250-252-254-230140-
CW
. ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS INCLUDED ARE
PAMLICO AND PUNGO RIVERS
NEUSE AND BAY RIVERS
S OF CAPE LOOKOUT NC TO SURF CITY NC OUT TO 20 NM
COASTAL WATERS FROM SURF CITY TO CAPE FEAR NC OUT 20 NM
READ MORE
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SPC SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 160 STATUS REPORTS
WW 0160 STATUS UPDATES
STATUS REPORT ON WW 160
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 WSW ACY
TO 25 SSW MSV.
..MOORE..04/22/23
ATTN...WFO...PHI...CTP...
STATUS REPORT FOR WS 160
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
NJC005-007-019-021-035-041-230040-
NJ
. NEW JERSEY COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
BURLINGTON CAMDEN HUNTERDON
MERCER SOMERSET WARREN
THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE
REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL
INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES
CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES.
READ MORE
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SPC SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 159 STATUS REPORTS
WW 0159 STATUS UPDATES
STATUS REPORT ON WW 159
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 50 SSE WAL
TO 10 NW SBY TO 15 NW ILG.
..MOORE..04/22/23
ATTN...WFO...LWX...PHI...AKQ...RAH...RNK...
STATUS REPORT FOR WS 159
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
DEC001-003-005-222240-
DE
. DELAWARE COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
KENT NEW CASTLE SUSSEX
MDC045-047-222240-
MD
. MARYLAND COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
WICOMICO WORCESTER
NCC051-065-085-101-127-163-191-195-222240-
NC
. NORTH CAROLINA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
CUMBERLAND EDGECOMBE HARNETT
JOHNSTON NASH SAMPSON
WAYNE WILSON
READ MORE
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SPC MD 603
MD 0603 CONCERNING SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 162... FOR WEST-CENTRAL TX
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0603
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0746 PM CDT SAT APR 22 2023
AREAS AFFECTED...WEST-CENTRAL TX
CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 162...
VALID 230046Z - 230215Z
THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 162
CONTINUES.
SUMMARY...SCATTERED STRONG/SEVERE STORMS WILL PROPAGATE SOUTH ACROSS
WW162 THIS EVENING. HAIL REMAINS THE PRIMARY RISK, ALTHOUGH GUSTY
WINDS ARE ALSO POSSIBLE.
DISCUSSION...FRONTAL CONVECTION CONTINUES TO PROPAGATE SOUTH AS THE
MAIN SYNOPTIC BOUNDARY ADVANCES ACROSS THE EDWARDS PLATEAU INTO THE
NORTHERN HILL COUNTRY. EARLIER SUPERCELL STRUCTURES HAVE BECOME LESS
COMMON AND THE MAJORITY OF CONVECTION APPEARS TO BE UNDERCUT BY THE
SURGING BOUNDARY. EVEN SO, SOUTHEASTERLY LOW-LEVEL (LOWEST FEW KM)
FLOW WILL CONTINUE TO FEED THESE UPDRAFTS AND ONGOING CONVECTION
SHOULD MIGRATE ALONG THE INSTABILITY AXIS. GUSTY WINDS MAY ACCOMPANY
THE NEAR-FRONTAL CONVECTION WITH HAIL BEING THE MAIN THREAT WITH THE
ELEVATED CORES. WITH TIME THESE STORMS SHOULD PROGRESS INTO THE
NORTHERN HILL COUNTRY.
..DARROW.. 04/23/2023
...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
ATTN...WFO...FWD...EWX...SJT...MAF...
LAT...LON 32490120 31789792 30059793 30750120 32490120
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SPC APR 22, 2023 2000 UTC DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
SPC 2000Z DAY 1 OUTLOOK
DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0301 PM CDT SAT APR 22 2023
VALID 222000Z - 231200Z
...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS PARTS OF THE
MID-ATLANTIC AND TEXAS HILL COUNTRY...
...SUMMARY...
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS REMAIN POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON OVER PARTS OF
THE CAROLINAS INTO THE MID-ATLANTIC REGION, AND THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING OVER PORTIONS OF SOUTH TEXAS.
...20Z UPDATE...
MINIMAL CHANGES WERE MADE TO THE ONGOING FORECAST. ACROSS THE
MID-ATLANTIC REGION, PROBABILITIES WERE REMOVE BEHIND EARLIER
CONVECTION. FOR THE TEXAS HILL COUNTRY, THE SLIGHT/MARGINAL AREAS
WERE ADJUSTED BASED ON OBSERVATIONS.
..WENDT.. 04/22/2023
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1114 AM CDT SAT APR 22 2023/
...MID-ATLANTIC REGION...
THE CURRENT WATER VAPOR LOOP SHOWS A STRONG UPPER TROUGH BECOMING
NEGATIVELY TILTED OVER THE OHIO VALLEY, WITH A 70-80 KNOT MID-LEVEL
JET NOSING INTO VA. A PERSISTENT LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS IS TRACKING
EASTWARD INTO CENTRAL VA/NC, AND IS EXPECTED TO INTENSIFY SOON.
THERMODYNAMICS AHEAD OF THE STORMS ARE RATHER WEAK, WITH LIMITED
LAPSE RATES AND MLCAPE GENERALLY BELOW 500 J/KG. HOWEVER, GIVEN THE
STRENGTH OF THE WINDS ALOFT AND APPROACHING UPPER FORCING, THE
POTENTIAL FOR DAMAGING WIND GUSTS ALONG THE LINE IS EXPECTED TO
INCREASE. THESE STORMS WILL TRACK ACROSS EASTERN MD/DE BEFORE
MOVING OFFSHORE BY LATE AFTERNOON.
...CAROLINAS...
THE PRIMARY COLD FRONT EXTENDS ACROSS WESTERN SC. STRONG HEATING IS
OCCURRING AHEAD OF THE FRONT OVER SC AND PARTS OF SOUTHERN NC, WHERE
AFTERNOON MLCAPE WILL RISE TO 1000-1500 J/KG. PRESENT INDICATIONS
ARE THAT STORMS WILL INTENSIFY IN THIS AREA BY MID-AFTERNOON, WITH A
COMBINATION OF MULTICELL AND SUPERCELL STRUCTURES POSSIBLE. WINDS
ALOFT ARE SLIGHTLY WEAKER HERE THAN FARTHER NORTH, BUT STILL
SUFFICIENT FOR A RISK OF HAIL AND GUSTY/DAMAGING WINDS IN THE
STRONGER STORMS THROUGH THE EARLY EVENING.
...HILL COUNTRY OF TEXAS...
LATEST SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS A WEAK LOW TO THE NORTHWEST OF SAN
ANGELO, WITH A DRYLINE EXTENDING SOUTHWARD TO THE MEXICAN BORDER.
STRONG HEATING THROUGH THE DAY WILL LEAD TO A WEAK CAP AND 2000+
J/KG OF MLCAPE BY MID/LATE AFTERNOON. ISOLATED SUPERCELL STORMS ARE
EXPECTED TO FORM NEAR THE LOW AND TRACK SLOWLY SOUTHEASTWARD INTO
THE WARM SECTOR. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW MODERATELY STEEP MID LEVEL
LAPSE RATES AND FAVORABLE DEEP LAYER SHEAR FOR THE RISK OF LARGE
HAIL AND DAMAGING WIND GUSTS. A TORNADO OR TWO ARE POSSIBLE, BUT
LIMITED LOW-LEVEL SHEAR IS EXPECTED TO LESSEN THAT THREAT.
READ MORE
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