| |
LU9DCE > ALERT 24.04.23 13:00z 127 Lines 4845 Bytes #999 (0) @ WW
BID : 8824_LU9DCE
Read: GUEST
Subj: STORM PREDICTION CENTER 24-APR23
Path: HB9ON<IW8PGT<IZ3LSV<I0OJJ<EA2RCF<LU9DCE
Sent: 230424/1300Z 8824@LU9DCE.TOR.BA.ARG.SOAM LinBPQ6.0.23
__ _ _ ___ ____ ___ ____ ____ ____ ____
( ) / )( \/ _ \( \ / __)( __) ( _ \( _ \/ ___)
/ (_/\) \/ (\__ )) D (( (__ ) _) ) _ ( ) _ (\___ \
\____/\____/(___/(____/ \___)(____) (____/(____/(____/
PACKET RADIO STATION - BUENOS AIRES (GF05OM)
PHP SCHEDULED NEWSLETTERS (PSN)
COPYRIGHT 2023 - EDUARDO A. CASTILLO
+----------------------------------------------------------------------------+
SPC - NO WATCHES ARE VALID AS OF MON APR 24 10:38:02 UTC 2023
NO WATCHES ARE VALID AS OF MON APR 24 10:38:02 UTC 2023.
=#=#=#=#=#=#=#=#=
SPC - NO MDS ARE IN EFFECT AS OF MON APR 24 10:38:02 UTC 2023
NO MESOSCALE DISCUSSIONS ARE IN EFFECT AS OF MON APR 24 10:38:02 UTC 2023.
=#=#=#=#=#=#=#=#=
SPC APR 24, 2023 0730 UTC DAY 3 SEVERE THUNDERSTORM OUTLOOK
SPC 0730Z DAY 3 OUTLOOK
DAY 3 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0230 AM CDT MON APR 24 2023
VALID 261200Z - 271200Z
...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER MUCH OF
CENTRAL INTO NORTHERN TEXAS AND ARKLATEX...
...SUMMARY...
SCATTERED STORMS MAY PRODUCE LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS OVER MUCH
OF CENTRAL INTO NORTHERN TEXAS ON WEDNESDAY. ISOLATED SEVERE STORMS
PRODUCING HAIL MAY ALSO OCCUR OVER THE FLORIDA PENINSULA.
...SYNOPSIS AND DISCUSSION...
ON WEDNESDAY, AN UPPER TROUGH OVER NM WILL MOVE EASTWARD ACROSS TX
AND OK, MAINTAINING A POSITIVE TILT. STRENGTHENING 500 MB WINDS TO
50 KT WILL BE COMMON OVER THIS REGION, WITH MOST OF THE COOLING
ALOFT FOCUSED FROM NORTHWEST TX INTO OK. AT THE SURFACE, A WEAK AREA
OF LOW PRESSURE WILL EXIST OVER WEST-CENTRAL TX WEDNESDAY MORNING,
AND WILL BE QUICKLY DISSIPATED BY A SURGE OF COLD AIR FROM THE
NORTH. THIS WILL LEAVE AN INVERTED TROUGH FROM CENTRAL INTO
NORTHEAST TX BY AFTERNOON.
LITTLE IN THE WAY OF MASS RESPONSE TO THE UPPER TROUGH IS NOTED BY
MODELS IN THE LOW LEVELS, WITH INITIAL 850 MB WINDS OF 25-30 KT
WEAKENING OVER THE WARM SECTOR DURING THE DAY. MODEST THETA-E
ADVECTION WILL OCCUR FROM NORTHEAST TX INTO FAR SOUTHERN AR,
RESULTING IN WIDESPREAD RAIN AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS OK AND AR.
A PLUME OF STEEP LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES IS FORECAST TO EMANATE FROM
SOUTHWEST INTO CENTRAL TX AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT, AND THIS WILL BE
A LIKELY AREA FOR LATE AFTERNOON STORMS. ANOTHER FAVORED AREA WILL
BE WHERE THE COLD FRONT INTERSECTS THE STATIONARY BOUNDARY OVER
NORTHEAST TX/ARKLATEX.
INITIAL STORMS OVER CENTRAL TX MAY PRODUCE DAMAGING HAIL DUE TO
MLCAPE AROUND 2500 J/KG, STEEP LAPSE RATES AND LENGTHY HODOGRAPHS,
BUT WEAK LOW-LEVEL FLOW SUGGESTS THE SUPERCELL THREAT MAY BE
SHORT-LIVED, WITH LOCALLY DAMAGING WINDS ALSO BECOMING LIKELY.
STORMS IN THE SRH-RICH AREA NEAR THE BOUNDARY FARTHER NORTH COULD
PRODUCE A TORNADO OR TWO BEFORE CROSSING INTO THE COOLER AIR MASS TO
THE NORTH. OTHERWISE, ELEVATED STORMS WITH HAIL THREAT WILL BE
POSSIBLE ACROSS OK INTO AR WITH MUCAPE OVER 1000 J/KG AND EFFECTIVE
SHEAR TO 50 KT.
...FL...
IMPRESSIVE MIDLEVEL LAPSE RATES OF 8.0 C/KM WILL REMAIN IN PLACE
ACROSS FL ON WEDNESDAY AS A SUBTLE MIDLEVEL TROUGH MOVES ACROSS THE
EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO AND PENINSULA. BY VIRTUE OF STRONG HEATING
AND AN UNCAPPED AIR MASS, AT LEAST ISOLATED STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO
FORM WHERE CONVERGENCE CAN BE MAXIMIZED DURING THE AFTERNOON.
PREDICTABILITY IS LOW REGARDING WHERE THE MAXIMUM THREAT AREA WILL
BE, BUT LONG, STRAIGHT HODOGRAPHS WILL FAVOR CELLS CAPABLE OF HAIL.
..JEWELL.. 04/24/2023
READ MORE
=#=#=#=#=#=#=#=#=
SPC APR 24, 2023 DAY 4-8 SEVERE WEATHER OUTLOOK
DAY 4-8 OUTLOOK
DAY 4-8 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0328 AM CDT MON APR 24 2023
VALID 271200Z - 021200Z
...DISCUSSION...
FOR THE PERIOD THURSDAY/D4 THROUGH FRIDAY/D5, A POSITIVE-TILT UPPER
TROUGH IS FORECAST TO MOVE ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST WITH WEST/SOUTHWEST
500 MB WINDS AROUND 40 KT. AT THE SURFACE, WEAK LOW PRESSURE MAY
DEVELOP OVER THE LOWER MS VALLEY AND MOVE TOWARD THE OH VALLEY AS
MID 60 F DEWPOINTS RETURN TO THE GULF COAST STATES. THIS TYPE OF
PATTERN TYPICALLY HAS LOW PREDICTABILITY DUE TO THE POTENTIAL FOR
WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION, AND A NEBULOUS SHORTWAVE WITH UNCERTAIN
AMPLITUDE. ECMWF ENSEMBLE MEAN FIELDS SUPPORT THIS NOTION, WITH
MUCAPE GENERALLY 500-1000 J/KG AND AREAS OF STORMS THROUGHOUT THE
PERIOD. HOWEVER, AREAS OF SEVERE COULD BE ADDED AS THE EVENT NEARS
AND PREDICTABILITY INCREASES.
FROM SATURDAY/D6 AND BEYOND, SEVERE CHANCES DWINDLE AS BOTH ECMWF
AND GEFS MEMBERS DEPICT A DEEP UPPER TROUGH DEVELOPING OVER THE
EASTERN CONUS, RESULTING IN RELATIVELY COOL AND STABLE CONDITIONS.
READ MORE
=#=#=#=#=#=#=#=#=
+----------------------------------------------------------------------------+
HYPERTEXT PREPROCESSOR - DEVELOPED BY LU9DCE - VERSION 3
Read previous mail | Read next mail
| |
