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LU9DCE > ALERT 25.04.23 15:10z 207 Lines 7319 Bytes #999 (0) @ WW
BID : 8870_LU9DCE
Read: GUEST
Subj: STORM PREDICTION CENTER 25-APR23
Path: HB9ON<IW0QNL<VE2PKT<W0ARP<LU9DCE
Sent: 230425/1300Z 8870@LU9DCE.TOR.BA.ARG.SOAM LinBPQ6.0.23
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PACKET RADIO STATION - BUENOS AIRES (GF05OM)
PHP SCHEDULED NEWSLETTERS (PSN)
COPYRIGHT 2023 - EDUARDO A. CASTILLO
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SPC - NO WATCHES ARE VALID AS OF TUE APR 25 10:58:01 UTC 2023
NO WATCHES ARE VALID AS OF TUE APR 25 10:58:01 UTC 2023.
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SPC - NO MDS ARE IN EFFECT AS OF TUE APR 25 10:58:01 UTC 2023
NO MESOSCALE DISCUSSIONS ARE IN EFFECT AS OF TUE APR 25 10:58:01 UTC 2023.
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SPC APR 25, 2023 0730 UTC DAY 3 SEVERE THUNDERSTORM OUTLOOK
SPC 0730Z DAY 3 OUTLOOK
DAY 3 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0229 AM CDT TUE APR 25 2023
VALID 271200Z - 281200Z
...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER MUCH OF
LOUISIANA...MISSISSIPPI...AND ALABAMA...
...SUMMARY...
AT LEAST ISOLATED SEVERE STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS PARTS OF THE
CENTRAL GULF COAST STATES ON THURSDAY, WITH DAMAGING GUSTS AND HAIL.
...SYNOPSIS...
ON THURSDAY, A LOW-AMPLITUDE TROUGH WILL MOVE EAST ACROSS THE LOWER
MS VALLEY TOWARD THE OH/TN VALLEYS, BECOMING LESS DEFINED BY
AFTERNOON. STILL, 500 MB WIND SPEEDS OF 40+ KT WILL BE COMMON FROM
EASTERN TX INTO KY/TN.
AT THE SURFACE, WEAK LOW PRESSURE WILL EXIST OVER LA AND MS, WITH A
COLD FRONT DECELERATING INTO LA AND NORTHWEST MS THROUGH 00Z. WHILE
SURFACE WINDS WILL BE LIGHT EAST OF THE COLD FRONT, MID TO UPPER 60S
DEWPOINTS WILL RETURN INTO THE LA/MA/AL AREA, RESULTING IN
DESTABILIZATION.
ELSEWHERE, A POTENT UPPER TROUGH WILL DEVELOP OVER THE NORTHERN
ROCKIES AND HIGH PLAINS, WITH STRONG COOLING ALOFT PUSHING SOUTH
TOWARD THE CENTRAL ROCKIES/HIGH PLAINS BY FRIDAY MORNING. LIFT ALONG
A SOUTHWARD-SURGING COLD FRONT MAY YIELD A FEW THUNDERSTORMS IN A
WEAKLY UNSTABLE AIR MASS WITH STEEP LAPSE RATES, WITH LOCALLY STRONG
GUSTS IN PART DUE TO THE CONVECTION.
...CENTRAL GULF COAST STATES...
MORNING CONVECTION IS EXPECTED TO STRETCH FROM OK INTO TN WITHIN A
WEAK THETA-E ADVECTION REGIME AND NORTH OF A WARM FRONT. THIS
BOUNDARY WILL LIFT NORTH INTO NORTHERN MS AND AL BY LATE AFTERNOON,
WITH AREAS OF STORMS POSSIBLE DURING THE DAY.
THE GREATEST OPPORTUNITY FOR SEVERE STORMS WILL BE DURING THE
AFTERNOON, AS POCKETS OF HEATING AID DESTABILIZATION WELL AHEAD OF
THE COLD FRONT. POSSIBLE FOCI FOR DEVELOPMENT WILL BE THE COLD FRONT
OVER LA/NORTHWEST MS AND ANY OUTFLOWS FROM EARLIER CONVECTION, BUT
STORMS MAY ALSO FORM DURING THE PEAK-HEATING HOURS DUE TO THE
INCREASING MOISTURE AND UNCAPPED AIR MASS.
THAT SAID, SIGNIFICANT MODEL DIFFERENCES EXIST WITH WHEN AND WHERE
ANTECEDENT CONVECTION WILL OCCUR, AND THIS CURRENTLY PRECLUDES A
SLIGHT RISK. FOR EXAMPLE, THE ECMWF SHOWS WIDESPREAD STORMS OVER THE
NORTHERN GULF OF MEXICO, WHICH WOULD HAMPER DESTABILIZATION INLAND.
IN ADDITION, 850 MB WINDS WILL ONLY AVERAGE 15-25 KT, WHICH WILL
REDUCE SRH. AS SUCH, WILL INTRODUCE LOW PROBABILITIES AT THIS TIME
FOR WIND AND HAIL POTENTIAL.
..JEWELL.. 04/25/2023
READ MORE
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SPC APR 25, 2023 DAY 4-8 SEVERE WEATHER OUTLOOK
DAY 4-8 OUTLOOK
DAY 4-8 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0347 AM CDT TUE APR 25 2023
VALID 281200Z - 031200Z
...DISCUSSION...
MODELS HAVE COME INTO GOOD AGREEMENT IN DEPICTING A STRONG UPPER
TROUGH DIVING SOUTH ACROSS THE LENGTH OF THE EASTERN ROCKIES/HIGH
PLAINS ON FRIDAY/D4, WITH AN ASSOCIATED STRONG COLD FRONT PLUNGING
SOUTH ACROSS THE PLAINS. DESTABILIZATION IS EXPECTED AHEAD OF THIS
FRONT INTO CENTRAL TX FRIDAY AFTERNOON, AND SCATTERED STORMS ARE
LIKELY. HOWEVER, THEY WILL QUICKLY BECOME UNDERCUT BY THE COLD AIR,
RENDERING THEM ELEVATED. AT LEAST SOME LOW-END SEVERE POTENTIAL WILL
EXIST THOUGH, PERHAPS BRIEF PERIODS OF HAIL. PREDICTABILITY IS TOO
LOW FOR AN AREA ON FRIDAY, GIVEN THE MARGINAL SEVERE THREAT AND
HISTORY OF MISTIMED COLD FRONTS WITH THE MODELS.
FARTHER EAST ON FRIDAY/D4, A PROGRESSIVE, LOW-AMPLITUDE FEATURE WILL
LIKELY BE EXITING THE SOUTHEAST, AND EARLY PERIOD STORMS WILL BE
POSSIBLE, BUT WITH ONLY MODEST INSTABILITY FORECAST.
FOR SATURDAY/D5, THE DEEP SOUTHERN PLAINS TROUGH IS FORECAST TO
PIVOT EASTWARD, WITH PREDICTABILITY ISSUES APPARENT IN THE ENSEMBLE
OUTPUT. DEPENDING ON HOW AMPLIFIED THE WAVE BECOMES, A SUFFICIENT
WARM SECTOR COULD MOVE ONSHORE FROM THE NORTHEASTERN GULF OF MEXICO
INTO PARTS OF AL, GA, AND FL FOR A SEVERE RISK.
BEHIND THIS SYSTEM AND FROM SUNDAY/D6 ONWARD, SEVERE POTENTIAL
APPEARS LOW GIVEN A STABLE AIR MASS OVER MOST OF THE CONUS.
READ MORE
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SPC DAY 1 FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK
SPC DAY 1 FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK
DAY 1 FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0147 AM CDT TUE APR 25 2023
VALID 251200Z - 261200Z
...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR SOUTHERN NEW MEXICO AND FAR WEST
TEXAS...
...SYNOPSIS...
A MID-LEVEL TROUGH WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST FROM THE GREAT BASIN TO THE
CENTRAL ROCKIES TODAY. THIS WILL BRING MODERATE MID-LEVEL FLOW OVER
A REGION WHICH WILL BE DEEPLY MIXED THIS AFTERNOON. IN ADDITION, A
LEE CYCLONE WILL DEVELOP IN THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS WHICH WILL
TIGHTEN THE PRESSURE GRADIENT. THESE FACTORS WILL COMBINE FOR STRONG
WINDS ACROSS MUCH OF THE SOUTHWEST AND SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS. THE
DRIEST REGION WITH THE WARMEST TEMPERATURES WILL BE ACROSS SOUTHERN
NEW MEXICO AND FAR WEST TEXAS WHICH IS WHERE THE CRITICAL
DELINEATION IS.
IN ADDITION, SOME THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE AHEAD OF THE
APPROACHING MID-LEVEL TROUGH. THESE STORMS SHOULD BE DRY WITH PWAT
VALUES AROUND 0.3 TO 0.4. FUELS AT HIGHER TERRAIN REMAIN SNOW
COVERED OR MOIST/GREEN. HOWEVER, SOME CRITICALLY DRY FUELS EXIST AT
LOWER ELEVATION. THEREFORE, SOME LIGHTNING STARTS ARE POSSIBLE IN
THE LOWER ELEVATIONS WITHIN THE ISODRYT AREA.
..BENTLEY.. 04/25/2023
...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV/FIRE FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
READ MORE
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SPC DAY 2 FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK
SPC DAY 2 FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK
DAY 2 FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0149 AM CDT TUE APR 25 2023
VALID 261200Z - 271200Z
...SYNOPSIS...
THE UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH WILL SHIFT INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS ON
WEDNESDAY AND LEAVE MUCH LESS FAVORABLE FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS IN
ITS WAKE. SOME DRY NORTHERLY FLOW WILL LIKELY DEVELOP IN THE HIGH
PLAINS AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS SOUTH AND A COLD FRONT SURGES
SOUTHWARD. THERE WILL BE A BRIEF PERIOD DURING THE AFTERNOON WHERE
SOME DRY AND BREEZY NORTHWEST FLOW MAY EXIST ACROSS SOUTHEAST NEW
MEXICO AND VICINITY. THIS WILL OCCUR WHERE HEATING AND DEEP MIXING
CAN DEVELOP AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT AND SOME STRONGER MID-LEVEL FLOW
MAY COME TOWARD THE SURFACE.
ELSEWHERE, FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS WILL BE MINIMAL WITH MOIST FUELS
AND/OR LIGHT WINDS FOR MOST REGIONS.
..BENTLEY.. 04/25/2023
...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV/FIRE FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
READ MORE
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