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LU9DCE > ALERT 27.04.23 13:36z 441 Lines 15266 Bytes #999 (0) @ WW
BID : 8957_LU9DCE
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Subj: STORM PREDICTION CENTER 27-APR23
Path: HB9ON<IW0QNL<IZ3LSV<I0OJJ<LU4ECL<LU9DCE
Sent: 230427/1300Z 8957@LU9DCE.TOR.BA.ARG.SOAM LinBPQ6.0.23
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PACKET RADIO STATION - BUENOS AIRES (GF05OM)
PHP SCHEDULED NEWSLETTERS (PSN)
COPYRIGHT 2023 - EDUARDO A. CASTILLO
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SPC SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 173
WW 173 SEVERE TSTM AL FL LA MS CW 271040Z - 271700Z
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH NUMBER 173
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
640 AM EDT THU APR 27 2023
THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A
* SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF
SOUTHWEST ALABAMA
WESTERN FLORIDA PANHANDLE
SOUTHEAST LOUISIANA
SOUTHEAST MISSISSIPPI
COASTAL WATERS
* EFFECTIVE THIS THURSDAY MORNING AND AFTERNOON FROM 640 AM UNTIL
100 PM EDT.
* PRIMARY THREATS INCLUDE...
SCATTERED DAMAGING WINDS AND ISOLATED SIGNIFICANT GUSTS TO 75
MPH POSSIBLE
SCATTERED LARGE HAIL AND ISOLATED VERY LARGE HAIL EVENTS TO 2
INCHES IN DIAMETER POSSIBLE
A TORNADO OR TWO POSSIBLE
SUMMARY...SCATTERED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL MAINLY POSE A RISK FOR
LARGE HAIL THROUGH MIDDAY. ISOLATED DAMAGING GUSTS AND A TORNADO
ALSO WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THIS ACTIVITY AS IT SPREADS EAST THROUGH
THE MORNING HOURS.
THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 85
STATUTE MILES EAST AND WEST OF A LINE FROM 55 MILES NORTHWEST OF
EVERGREEN AL TO 40 MILES SOUTH OF MOBILE AL. FOR A COMPLETE
DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE THE ASSOCIATED WATCH OUTLINE UPDATE
(WOUS64 KWNS WOU3).
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
REMEMBER...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE
FAVORABLE FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH AREA.
PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR THREATENING
WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS AND POSSIBLE
WARNINGS. SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAN AND OCCASIONALLY DO PRODUCE
TORNADOES.
&&
AVIATION...A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH HAIL SURFACE AND ALOFT TO
2 INCHES. EXTREME TURBULENCE AND SURFACE WIND GUSTS TO 65 KNOTS. A
FEW CUMULONIMBI WITH MAXIMUM TOPS TO 500. MEAN STORM MOTION VECTOR
26030.
...LEITMAN
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SPC SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 173 STATUS REPORTS
WW 0173 STATUS UPDATES
STATUS FOR WATCH 0173 HAS NOT BEEN ISSUED YET
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SPC SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 172 STATUS REPORTS
WW 0172 STATUS UPDATES
STATUS REPORT ON WW 172
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 W 7R4 TO
40 SSE ESF TO ESF TO 30 E ESF.
..LEITMAN..04/27/23
ATTN...WFO...LCH...SHV...
STATUS REPORT FOR WS 172
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
LAC001-009-055-097-113-270940-
LA
. LOUISIANA PARISHES INCLUDED ARE
ACADIA AVOYELLES LAFAYETTE
ST. LANDRY VERMILION
THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE
REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL
INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES
CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES.
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SPC MD 634
MD 0634 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE FOR SOUTHEAST MS INTO
SOUTHWEST AL AND THE WESTERN FL PANHANDLE
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0634
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0504 AM CDT THU APR 27 2023
AREAS AFFECTED...SOUTHEAST MS INTO SOUTHWEST AL AND THE WESTERN FL
PANHANDLE
CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE
VALID 271004Z - 271200Z
PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...40 PERCENT
SUMMARY...ISOLATED STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS MAY POSE A
LARGE-HAIL RISK EARLY THIS MORNING. CONVECTIVE TRENDS ARE BEING
MONITORED FOR POSSIBLE WATCH ISSUANCE.
DISCUSSION...ISOLATED SUPERCELLS HAVE DEVELOPED EARLY THIS MORNING
IN THE VICINITY OF A WARM FRONT DRAPED ACROSS FAR SOTUHERN MS INTO
COASTAL AL AND THE FL PANHANDLE. SURFACE DEWPOINTS IN THE UPPER 60S
BENEATH STEEP MIDLEVEL LAPSE RATES ARE SUPPORTING MLCAPE VALUES UP
TO AROUND 1000-1500 J/KG. EFFECTIVE SHEAR MAGNITUDES GREATER THAN 40
KT WILL AID IN UPDRAFT ORGANIZATION AND STORM MAINTENANCE. STORM
MOTION MAY KEEP CONVECTION TO THE COOL SIDE OF THE BOUNDARY, AT
LEAST IN THE SHORT TERM. HOWEVER, THE SURFACE BOUNDARY SHOULD DRIFT
NORTH WITH TIME THROUGH EARLY MORNING. WHILE SURFACE TO 3KM FLOW IS
RATHER WEAK, VEERING WITH HEIGHT IS CONTRIBUTING TO MODEST BUT
FAVORABLY CURVED LOW-LEVEL HODOGRAPHS AND EFFECTIVE SRH VALUES NEAR
150-200 M2/S2 ARE NOTED WITHIN THE FRONTAL ZONE. GIVEN LITTLE
INHIBITION ACROSS THE DOWNSTREAM ENVIRONMENT, SOME POTENTIAL FOR
STORM INTENSIFICATION IS POSSIBLE, AND A STRONG GUST OR TORNADO CAN
NOT BE RULED OUT WITH THE SUPERCELL MOVING INTO STONE COUNTY MS AS
IT CONTINUES TO TRACK EAST. OTHERWISE, LARGE HAIL WILL BE THE
PRIMARY HAZARD.
THE MAIN UNCERTAINTY AT THIS TIME AS RELATED TO WATCH ISSUANCE IS
STORM COVERAGE. A COUPLE OF CELLS ARE ONGOING OVER CHANDELEUR SOUND
SOUTH OF THE MS COAST. THIS ACTIVITY MAY EVENTUALLY MOVE INTO FAR
SOUTHEAST MS/SOUTHWEST AL. IF COVERAGE OF STORMS INCREASES
SUFFICIENTLY, A WATCH MAY BE NEEDED FOR PORTIONS OF THE MCD AREA.
..LEITMAN/EDWARDS.. 04/27/2023
...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
ATTN...WFO...MOB...JAN...LIX...
LAT...LON 31438936 31758807 31758720 31268664 30778669 30248708
29918863 30348977 30948994 31248986 31438936
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SPC APR 27, 2023 0600 UTC DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
SPC 0600Z DAY 2 OUTLOOK
DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1257 AM CDT THU APR 27 2023
VALID 281200Z - 291200Z
...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PARTS OF
NORTHERN INTO CENTRAL TEXAS...
...SUMMARY...
SCATTERED STORMS ARE FORECAST TO PRODUCE DAMAGING HAIL FROM LATE
AFTERNOON THROUGH EVENING FROM NORTH-CENTRAL TEXAS TO THE MIDDLE AND
LOWER RIO GRANDE VALLEY. ISOLATED STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS MAY ALSO
OCCUR OVER PARTS OF THE SOUTHEAST.
...SYNOPSIS...
A POTENT SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL DROP SOUTH ACROSS CO, NM, AND INTO
THE TX PANHANDLE THROUGH 00Z, WITH COOLING ALOFT INCREASING LATE IN
THE DAY OVER CENTRAL TO NORTHERN TX. WINDS ALOFT WILL INCREASE FROM
35 KT AT 500 MB FRIDAY MORNING TO 55 KT BY 00Z, ENHANCING SHEAR. LOW
PRESSURE WILL SHIFT SOUTH TOWARD THE MIDDLE RIO GRANDE VALLEY, AHEAD
OF A PLUNGING COLD FRONT INTO WEST TX.
LOW 60S F DEWPOINTS WILL BE IN PLACE OVER CENTRAL TX FRIDAY MORNING,
INCREASING INTO THE MID 60S F WITHIN A NARROW PLUME AS SOUTHERLY 850
MB FLOW INCREASES TO 35 KT. THE COMBINATION OF STRENGTHENING SHEAR
AND INCREASING MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY WILL AGAIN RESULT IN
SUPERCELLS CAPABLE OF DAMAGING HAIL OVER PARTS OF TX FRIDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
TO THE EAST, A LOW-AMPLITUDE SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL PIVOT FROM THE
CAROLINAS INTO THE MID ATLANTIC, WITH MODERATE SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT
PERSISTING. A DECELERATING COLD FRONT WILL STRETCH ROUGHLY FROM THE
PIEDMONT SOUTHWESTWARD TOWARD THE NORTHERN GULF COAST, WITH
WIDESPREAD 60S F DEWPOINTS AHEAD OF IT. IN ADDITION, AN EFFECTIVE
BOUNDARY IS FORECAST TO MAKE LITTLE NORTHWARD PROGRESS OVER FAR
NORTHEAST NC/SOUTHEAST VA DUE TO PRECIPITATION. WEAK LOW PRESSURE
COMBINED WITH SURFACE HEATING MAY RESULT IN ISOLATED STRONG STORMS
OVER PARTS OF THE AREA.
ELSEWHERE, A MOIST AIR MASS WILL REMAIN OVER FL, BENEATH A WESTERLY
FLOW REGIME. TEMPERATURES ALOFT WILL BE MUCH WARMER THAN THE
PREVIOUS FEW DAYS, BUT ISOLATED STRONG STORMS MAY STILL OCCUR OVER
NORTHERN FL AND THE EASTERN PENINSULA.
...NORTH TX SOUTHWARD TO THE LOWER RIO GRANDE VALLEY...
WELL IN ADVANCE OF THE COLD FRONT, STRONG HEATING WILL LEAD TO A
PLUME OF STEEP LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES FROM SOUTHWEST INTO CENTRAL TX,
WEST OF I-35 BY LATE AFTERNOON. MEANWHILE, RETURNING MOISTURE
BENEATH VERY STEEP LAPSE RATES ALOFT WILL LEAD TO STRONG INSTABILITY
OVER MUCH OF THE STATE. WHILE INITIALLY CAPPED, LIFT ALONG THE COLD
FRONT WILL LEAD TO RAPID SEVERE-STORM DEVELOPMENT AROUND 21Z OVER
PARTS OF NORTHERN/NORTHWESTERN TX, DEVELOPING SOUTHWESTWARD INTO
CENTRAL TX. THIS NORTHEAST-TO-SOUTHWEST-ORIENTED CORRIDOR OF MAXIMUM
THREAT POTENTIAL MAY REMAIN RELATIVELY CONCENTRATED DUE TO THE
NARROW MOIST PLUME AND FAST-MOVING COLD FRONT. HOWEVER, THE DEGREE
OF INSTABILITY COUPLED WITH RIGHTWARD-PROPAGATING CELLS OFF THE
FRONT SUPPORT A 30% SEVERE HAIL PROBABILITY. IN ADDITION, A TORNADO
OR TWO MAY OCCUR, ESPECIALLY OVER NORTHERN TX WHERE SRH WILL BE A
BIT STRONGER AT 200+ M2/S2, BUT THIS WILL DEPEND ON STORMS NOT
GETTING UNDERCUT.
A SUBSTANTIAL INSTABILITY AND CIN GRADIENT WILL EXIST OVER EASTERN
TX AFTER 00Z, WHICH WILL LIMIT EASTWARD EXTENT OF SEVERE THREAT.
INCREASING CIN FROM THE TX COAST WESTWARD MAY ALSO LIMIT STORM
COVERAGE DURING THE EVENING. STILL, ISOLATED CELLS AND/OR BOWS MAY
PERSIST OVER FAR SOUTHERN TX OVERNIGHT, AS INSTABILITY WILL BE
STRONG.
...NORTHERN FL INTO THE CAROLINAS...
STORMS MAY BE ONGOING EARLY FRIDAY ACROSS THE FL PANHANDLE, WITH
FAVORABLE INSTABILITY AND DEEP-LAYER SHEAR FAVORING ISOLATED STRONG
STORMS. ACTIVITY ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST OVERALL IS EXPECTED TO BE
ISOLATED, THE EXCEPTION BEING THE WARM-ADVECTION PLUME INTO EASTERN
NC AND VA. HOWEVER, SURFACE HEATING WILL RESULT IN A LARGE AREA OF
MUCAPE OVER 1000 J/KG FROM GA INTO NC, BENEATH MODEST WESTERLIES
ALOFT. AS SUCH, ANY STORMS THAT DEVELOP ALONG THE DETERIORATING COLD
FRONT MAY RESULT IN LOCALIZED MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL OR WIND.
DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON, ADDITIONAL STORMS MAY DEVELOP FROM
CENTRAL INTO EASTERN NC, COINCIDENT WITH THE WEAK SURFACE LOW AND
PEAK HEATING. SOUNDINGS SHOW SUBSTANTIAL DRY AIR ALOFT, BUT ALSO
LONG, STRAIGHT HODOGRAPHS WHICH MAY FAVOR ISOLATED HAIL.
..JEWELL.. 04/27/2023
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SPC APR 27, 2023 0730 UTC DAY 3 SEVERE THUNDERSTORM OUTLOOK
SPC 0730Z DAY 3 OUTLOOK
DAY 3 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0220 AM CDT THU APR 27 2023
VALID 291200Z - 301200Z
...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM SOUTHERN
LOUISIANA INTO SOUTHWEST GEORGIA AND THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE...
...SUMMARY...
SEVERE-STORM POTENTIAL MAY DEVELOP LATE SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY MORNING
OVER PARTS OF THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN GULF COAST STATES.
...SYNOPSIS/DISCUSSION...
A DEEP BUT POSITIVELY TILTED UPPER TROUGH WILL MOVE EAST/SOUTHEAST
ACROSS TX, AND TOWARD THE LOWER MS VALLEY SATURDAY AFTERNOON, WITH
500 MB WINDS INCREASING TO OVER 70-80 KT. THIS WAVE IS FORECAST TO
TILT NEUTRALLY AND MOVE DUE EAST LATE IN THE PERIOD, AS IT BEGINS TO
PHASE WITH A DEVELOPING TROUGH OVER THE UPPER GREAT LAKES.
AT THE SURFACE, A LOW WILL BE OVER THE NORTHWEST GULF OF MEXICO
SATURDAY MORNING, WITH AN ASSOCIATED LARGE AREA OF CONVECTION
POSSIBLE. WEAK PRESSURE FALLS ARE EXPECTED INLAND OVER LA AND MS
DURING THE DAY, WITH CONTINUED WIDESPREAD STORMS INTO THE NORTHERN
GULF OF MEXICO.
A BOUNDARY EXTENDING EAST FROM THE INITIAL LOW WILL EVENTUALLY
BECOME A WARM FRONT OVER THE NORTHERN/NORTHEASTERN GULF COAST
STATES, WITH MID TO UPPER 60S F DEWPOINTS INTO SOUTHERN AL, GA, AND
FL. THIS WARM ADVECTION WILL BE AIDED BY STRENGTHENING 850 MB FLOW
TO 50 KT. THE AFOREMENTIONED STORM ACTIVITY OVER THE WATER MAKES
THIS FORECAST ONE OF LOW PREDICTABILITY, DESPITE POTENTIAL FOR
INLAND DESTABILIZATION LATE. HOWEVER, GIVEN AMPLE SHEAR AND ASCENT
WITH THIS SYSTEM, LOW SEVERE PROBABILITIES ARE WARRANTED, WITH
FURTHER ADJUSTMENTS LIKELY IN UPCOMING OUTLOOKS.
..JEWELL.. 04/27/2023
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SPC APR 27, 2023 DAY 4-8 SEVERE WEATHER OUTLOOK
DAY 4-8 OUTLOOK
DAY 4-8 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0349 AM CDT THU APR 27 2023
VALID 301200Z - 051200Z
...DISCUSSION...
ON SUNDAY/D4, A SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS FORECAST TO QUICKLY MOVE
EASTWARD ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN STATES, MOVING OFFSHORE PRIOR TO
00Z. MEANWHILE, A LARGER-SCALE UPPER TROUGH IS FORECAST OVER THE
UPPER MS VALLEY AND GREAT LAKES, WITH STRONG NORTHWEST FLOW OVER THE
PLAINS.
MODELS INDICATE A SHORT TIME WINDOW OF WARM SECTOR OVER LAND WILL BE
POSSIBLE, FROM FL TO THE CAROLINAS SUNDAY/D4 MORNING. GIVEN THE
DEPICTED STRENGTH OF THE WAVE, STORMS WOULD LIKELY BE ONGOING ALONG
A COLD FRONT PRIOR TO MOVING OFFSHORE. EVEN SO, IT APPEARS THAT
SUBSTANTIAL PRECIPITATION AND CLOUDS COULD HAMPER DESTABILIZATION,
IN ADDITION TO TIMING ISSUES WITH THE SPEED OF THE TROUGH.
FROM MONDAY/D5 THROUGH THE END OF THE OUTLOOK PERIOD, LITTLE IF ANY
SEVERE RISK OVER THE CONUS IS ANTICIPATED, DUE TO THE STABILIZING
EFFECTS OF A DEEP UPPER TROUGH OVER EAST. MINIMAL GENERAL
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY MAY OCCUR OVER THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS AS
DIURNAL HEATING INTERACTS WITH MEAGER MOISTURE RETURN.
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SPC DAY 1 FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK
SPC DAY 1 FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK
DAY 1 FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0130 AM CDT THU APR 27 2023
VALID 271200Z - 281200Z
...SYNOPSIS...
MODERATE NORTHWESTERLY FLOW (35-40 KNOTS) WILL BE PRESENT ACROSS NEW
MEXICO TODAY. MEANWHILE, LEE CYCLOGENESIS IS EXPECTED ACROSS EASTERN
COLORADO. A DEEPLY MIXED BOUNDARY LAYER IS EXPECTED ACROSS NEW
MEXICO BENEATH THE STRONGER FLOW ALOFT. THIS WILL RESULT IN SOME
INCREASED SURFACE WINDS. IN ADDITION, A STRENGTHENING SURFACE
PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL ALSO MANIFEST ACROSS EASTERN NEW MEXICO AS A
RESULT OF THE DEVELOPING LEE CYCLONE. THEREFORE, WINDS OF 15 TO 20
MPH AND RELATIVE HUMIDITY OF 8 TO 12 PERCENT WILL JUSTIFY AN
ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER AREA ACROSS PORTIONS OF NORTHERN AND CENTRAL
NEW MEXICO.
..BENTLEY.. 04/27/2023
...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV/FIRE FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
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SPC DAY 2 FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK
SPC DAY 2 FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK
DAY 2 FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0132 AM CDT THU APR 27 2023
VALID 281200Z - 291200Z
...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST ARIZONA AND
SOUTHWEST NEW MEXICO...
...SYNOPSIS...
A SHARP, POSITIVELY TILTED MID-LEVEL TROUGH WILL MOVE SOUTH ACROSS
THE ROCKIES DURING THE DAY ON FRIDAY. A SURFACE LOW WILL MOVE SOUTH
AHEAD OF THIS MID-LEVEL WAVE. IN THE WAKE OF THIS TROUGH, A STRONG
AREA OF SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN ACROSS THE ROCKIES. THIS
WILL RESULT IN A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES
AND SOUTHWEST, RESULTING IN STRONG NORTHERLY WINDS. IN ADDITION TO
THIS SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT, A DEEPLY MIXED AIRMASS WILL BE
PRESENT ACROSS WESTERN NEW MEXICO AND EASTERN ARIZONA. THIS WILL
ALSO LEAD TO STRENGTHENING SURFACE WIND SPEEDS IN A REGION WITH
SINGLE-DIGIT RELATIVE HUMIDITY. THEREFORE, CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS SOUTHEAST ARIZONA AND SOUTHWEST NEW
MEXICO WHERE THERE IS THE BEST OVERLAP BETWEEN STRONG WINDS, LOW
RELATIVE HUMIDITY, AND DRY FUELS.
..BENTLEY.. 04/27/2023
...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV/FIRE FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
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