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LU9DCE > ALERT 28.04.23 15:06z 399 Lines 16548 Bytes #999 (0) @ WW
BID : 9010_LU9DCE
Read: GUEST
Subj: STORM PREDICTION CENTER 28-APR23
Path: HB9ON<IW0QNL<VE2PKT<VE6NAS<VE3CGR<LU9DCE
Sent: 230428/1300Z 9010@LU9DCE.TOR.BA.ARG.SOAM LinBPQ6.0.23
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SPC - NO WATCHES ARE VALID AS OF FRI APR 28 08:26:01 UTC 2023
NO WATCHES ARE VALID AS OF FRI APR 28 08:26:01 UTC 2023.
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SPC - NO MDS ARE IN EFFECT AS OF FRI APR 28 08:26:01 UTC 2023
NO MESOSCALE DISCUSSIONS ARE IN EFFECT AS OF FRI APR 28 08:26:01 UTC 2023.
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SPC APR 28, 2023 0600 UTC DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
SPC 1200Z DAY 1 OUTLOOK
DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1255 AM CDT FRI APR 28 2023
VALID 281200Z - 291200Z
...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CENTRAL
TEXAS...
...SUMMARY...
SCATTERED STORMS ARE FORECAST TO PRODUCE DAMAGING HAIL AND SEVERE
WINDS FROM LATE AFTERNOON THROUGH EVENING FROM NORTH-CENTRAL TEXAS
TO THE MIDDLE AND LOWER RIO GRANDE VALLEY. ISOLATED STRONG TO SEVERE
STORMS MAY ALSO OCCUR OVER PARTS OF THE SOUTHEAST INTO THE CENTRAL
APPALACHIANS.
...SYNOPSIS...
LATEST WATER-VAPOR IMAGERY AND ANALYSES DEPICT A MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE
TROUGH UNDERGOING SLIGHT DEEPENING OVER THE CENTRAL ROCKIES. THIS IS
WITHIN A STRONG COLD ADVECTION REGIME, BEHIND A SOUTHWARD-SURGING
COLD FRONT OVER THE ROCKIES AND CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS. BOTH OF THESE
FEATURES ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE SOUTHWARD OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS,
WITH THE UPPER TROUGH LIKELY REACHING NORTHERN MEXICO AND THE
ATTENDANT COLD FRONT SWEEPING INTO CENTRAL TX BY AROUND 21 UTC THIS
AFTERNOON. ADDITIONALLY, A SECOND, LESS INTENSE, UPPER PERTURBATION
IS NOTED OVER THE MID-MS VALLEY MIGRATING TO THE EAST/NORTHEAST. A
WEAK SURFACE LOW ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FEATURE IS FORECAST TO LIFT
INTO PARTS OF THE UPPER OH VALLEY, WITH MODEST LEE CYCLOGENESIS EAST
OF THE APPALACHIANS. THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT UNDER THE UPPER LOW
AND IN THE VICINITY OF THE LEE LOW APPEARS PROBABLE AROUND PEAK
HEATING.
...CENTRAL TO SOUTHERN TEXAS...
00 UTC SOUNDINGS FROM ACROSS THE HIGH PLAINS/ROCKIES SAMPLED STEEP
MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES IN EXCESS OF 8 C/KM. THIS CORROBORATES RECENT
RAP ANALYSIS THAT SHOW THE LAPSE RATE PLUME EXTENDING OVER NM INTO
WEST TX. NORTHWESTERLY 700-500 MB MEAN FLOW WILL ADVECT THESE LAPSE
RATES INTO CENTRAL TX OVER THE NEXT 12-18 HOURS. AT THE SURFACE,
MODEST MOISTURE ADVECTION IS OCCURRING OVER CENTRAL TX TO THE
COASTAL PLAIN, AMID WEAK SURFACE PRESSURE FALLS OVER WEST TX. MID
50S TO LOW 60S DEWPOINTS SHOULD MIGRATE INTO CENTRAL TX BY EARLY
AFTERNOON. THIS MOISTURE RETURN WILL BECOME MORE PRONOUNCED THROUGH
THE MORNING HOURS AS THE SURFACE LOW DEEPENS, AND SHIFTS EASTWARD IN
TANDEM WITH THE APPROACHING UPPER WAVE. THIS COMBINATION OF
INCREASING LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE AND STEEPENING MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES
SHOULD ESTABLISH A CORRIDOR OF 3000-3500 J/KG MLCAPE FROM SOUTHERN
TO CENTRAL TX BY EARLY TO MID AFTERNOON. THE POSITIVE TILT OF THE
UPPER TROUGH OVER SOUTHERN NM WILL SPREAD 50-60 KNOT ZONAL MID-LEVEL
WINDS OVER THE WARM SECTOR, WITH EFFECTIVE BULK SHEAR VALUES
APPROACHING 50 KNOTS.
DIURNAL WARMING, COMBINED WITH BROAD ASCENT IN THE VICINITY OF THE
SURFACE LOW OVER CENTRAL TX, MAY ALLOW FOR CONVECTIVE INITIATION AS
EARLY AS 18-20 UTC, NEAR A DIFFUSE TRIPLE POINT AND/OR ALONG A
SHARPENING DRYLINE ROUGHLY PARALLEL WITH THE I-35 CORRIDOR. INITIAL
STORM MODES WILL LIKELY BE DISCRETE SUPERCELLS, GIVEN FAVORABLE FLOW
ORIENTATION AWAY FROM THE ZONE OF INITIATION AND ELONGATED
HODOGRAPHS. THESE EARLY CELLS WILL POSE A RISK FOR LARGE TO VERY
LARGE (2+ INCH) HAIL AS WELL AS A TORNADO THREAT - ESPECIALLY IN THE
VICINITY OF THE SURFACE WARM FRONT WHERE LOW-LEVEL HELICITY WILL BE
MAXIMIZED. HOWEVER, THE WINDOW/LONGEVITY FOR DISCRETE SUPERCELLS IS
UNCERTAIN. RECENT SURFACE OBSERVATIONS ACROSS THE HIGH PLAINS SHOW A
FASTER FRONTAL PROGRESSION THAN DEPICTED BY MOST GUIDANCE. AS SUCH,
THE ARRIVAL OF THE COLD FRONT INTO CENTRAL TX MAY FOSTER RAPID
UPSCALE GROWTH INTO A SQUALL LINE FASTER THAN EXPECTED BY 00Z CAMS.
THE PRIMARY HAZARD IS EXPECTED TO QUICKLY TRANSITION TO SEVERE WIND
ONCE THE MCS BECOMES ESTABLISHED AND PROPAGATES SOUTHEASTWARD
TOWARDS THE TX COASTAL PLAIN. A STRONG LINE-ORTHOGONAL DEEP-LAYER
SHEAR COMPONENT SUGGEST THIS MCS MAY BE FAIRLY PROGRESSIVE AND
CAPABLE OF A FEW 75+ MPH WIND GUSTS. HOWEVER, THE EASTWARD AND
WESTWARD EXTENT OF THE WIND THREAT IS UNCERTAIN, GIVEN A TIGHT
BUOYANCY GRADIENT ACROSS EAST TX AND THE POTENTIAL FOR FRONTAL
UNDERCUTTING ACROSS SOUTH-CENTRAL TX.
...UPPER OH RIVER VALLEY TO THE MID-ATLANTIC...
DAYTIME HEATING UNDER THE UPPER-LOW SHOULD BOLSTER MLCAPE VALUES TO
500-1000 J/KG ACROSS THE UPPER OH VALLEY REGION AND INTO THE
MID-ATLANTIC BY PEAK HEATING THIS AFTERNOON. WHILE MID-LEVEL LAPSE
RATES WILL BE MEAGER, DEEP-LAYER SHEAR VALUES ON THE ORDER OF 25-30
KNOTS SHOULD SUPPORT SOME STORM ORGANIZATION WITH AN ATTENDANT
HAIL/DAMAGING WIND THREAT. DAMAGING GUSTS MAY BE MORE COMMON ACROSS
PARTS OF THE MID-ATLANTIC WHERE DAYTIME HIGHS IN THE MID 70S WILL
SUPPORT STEEP LAPSE RATES IN THE 0-1 KM LAYER THAT MAY ALLOW FOR
MORE EFFICIENT DOWNDRAFT ACCELERATION.
...FLORIDA...
A CONVECTIVE CLUSTER ONGOING OVER THE CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO IS
FORECAST TO MIGRATE EASTWARD, REACHING THE FL PENINSULA BY AROUND 12
UTC. DIURNAL WARMING AHEAD OF THIS CLUSTER OF STORMS SHOULD SUPPORT
INCREASING BUOYANCY WITH MLCAPE VALUES REACHING NEAR 1500 J/KG BY
MID-AFTERNOON. 30-40 KNOT MID-LEVEL FLOW ON THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY
OF THE EASTERN WAVE WILL ALLOW FOR SOME ELONGATION OF THE DEEP-LAYER
HODOGRAPH CONDUCIVE FOR SOME ORGANIZATION OF SEMI-DISCRETE
CELLS/CLUSTERS. THE THREAT FOR SEVERE HAIL/DAMAGING WINDS WILL
LIKELY BE GREATEST ACROSS THE EASTERN FL COAST, WHERE DIURNAL
WARMING WILL BE MAXIMIZED AHEAD OF ANY CONVECTION.
..MOORE/DARROW.. 04/28/2023
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SPC APR 28, 2023 0600 UTC DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
SPC 0600Z DAY 2 OUTLOOK
DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK CORR 1
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0106 AM CDT FRI APR 28 2023
VALID 291200Z - 301200Z
...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PARTS OF THE
FL PANHANDLE AND NORTH FL INTO SOUTHWEST GA...
CORRECTED FOR GEOGRAPHIC HEADER
...SUMMARY...
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS PARTS OF THE SOUTHEAST
SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY NIGHT, WITH THE GREATEST THREAT CURRENTLY
EXPECTED FROM THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE INTO NORTH FLORIDA AND SOUTHWEST
GEORGIA. DAMAGING WIND AND A FEW TORNADOES WILL BE THE PRIMARY
THREATS, WITH ISOLATED HAIL ALSO POSSIBLE.
...SYNOPSIS...
A LONGWAVE MID/UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH IS FORECAST TO AMPLIFY OVER THE
CENTRAL AND EASTERN CONUS ON SATURDAY. A POSITIVELY TILTED SHORTWAVE
INITIALLY OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS WILL TAKE ON A NEUTRAL TILT AS IT
MOVES QUICKLY EASTWARD THROUGH THE BASE OF THE AMPLIFYING LONGWAVE
TROUGH. IN ADVANCE OF THE EJECTING SHORTWAVE TROUGH, A SURFACE LOW
IS FORECAST TO DEVELOP ALONG A FRONT DRAPED ACROSS THE NORTHERN GULF
OF MEXICO AND EVENTUALLY MOVE NORTHEASTWARD INTO THE FL PANHANDLE
AND SOUTHERN GA. THE LOCATION OF THE FRONT AND THE INTENSITY/TRACK
OF THE SURFACE CYCLONE WILL BE SOMEWHAT DEPENDENT ON THE EVOLUTION
OF CONVECTION ACROSS THE GULF OF MEXICO, WHICH REMAINS UNCERTAIN AT
THIS TIME.
...CENTRAL/EASTERN GULF COAST INTO NORTH FL/SOUTH GA...
AN MCS WILL LIKELY BE ONGOING SATURDAY MORNING SOMEWHERE OVER THE
WESTERN/CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO. SOME HEATING AND DESTABILIZATION
WILL BE POSSIBLE NEAR THE GULF COAST INTO PARTS OF NORTH FL/SOUTH GA
IN ADVANCE OF ANY MCS, AND SOME THREAT FOR DAMAGING WIND GUSTS AND
POSSIBLY A BRIEF TORNADO MAY EVOLVE AS STORMS MOVE AND/OR DEVELOP
INLAND, NEAR/SOUTH OF THE EFFECTIVE WARM FRONT.
IN THE WAKE OF ANY DIURNAL MCS, THE OUTFLOW-REINFORCED FRONT WILL
LIKELY BE SUPPRESSED SOUTHWARD BY EARLY EVENING, BEFORE POTENTIALLY
RETURNING NORTHWARD SATURDAY NIGHT, IN RESPONSE TO THE EJECTING
SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND DEVELOPING SURFACE CYCLONE. IF RICH LOW-LEVEL
MOISTURE CAN RETURN INLAND SATURDAY NIGHT IN CONJUNCTION WITH THE
SURFACE LOW, THEN THE THREAT FOR DAMAGING GUSTS AND A COUPLE
TORNADOES WILL INCREASE, WITH LOW-LEVEL AND DEEP-LAYER SHEAR
PROFILES BECOMING FAVORABLE FOR SUPERCELLS AND ORGANIZED CLUSTERS.
CONSIDERABLE UNCERTAINTY REMAINS REGARDING THE CONVECTIVE EVOLUTION
EARLY IN THE DAY AND THE NORTHWARD EXTENT OF ANY THREAT LATE IN THE
PERIOD. A SLIGHT RISK HAS BEEN INTRODUCED ACROSS PARTS OF THE FL
PANHANDLE/NORTH FL AND SOUTH GA, WHERE THE GREATEST AGGREGATE THREAT
FROM EARLY AND LATE CONVECTION IS CURRENTLY EXPECTED. SOME
ADJUSTMENTS WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED BASED ON SHORTER-TERM
OBSERVATIONAL AND GUIDANCE TRENDS.
...EAST-CENTRAL/NORTHEAST FL...
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT IS AGAIN EXPECTED DURING THE
AFTERNOON ACROSS PARTS OF EAST-CENTRAL/NORTHEAST FLORIDA, IN
ASSOCIATION WITH THE SEA BREEZE. INSTABILITY AND DEEP-LAYER SHEAR
WILL REMAIN FAVORABLE FOR ORGANIZED MULTICELLS AND PERHAPS A COUPLE
OF SUPERCELLS, WITH AN ATTENDANT THREAT OF HAIL AND LOCALLY
STRONG/DAMAGING GUSTS.
..DEAN.. 04/28/2023
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SPC APR 28, 2023 0730 UTC DAY 3 SEVERE THUNDERSTORM OUTLOOK
SPC 0730Z DAY 3 OUTLOOK
DAY 3 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0229 AM CDT FRI APR 28 2023
VALID 301200Z - 011200Z
...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE
EASTERN CAROLINAS INTO THE TIDEWATER REGION...AND ALSO ACROSS
CENTRAL/SOUTH FLORIDA...
...SUMMARY...
STRONG TO LOCALLY SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE SUNDAY
ACROSS THE EASTERN CAROLINAS INTO THE TIDEWATER REGION, AND ALSO
ACROSS PARTS OF FLORIDA.
...SYNOPSIS...
A MID/UPPER-LEVEL SHORTWAVE WILL EJECT QUICKLY THROUGH THE BASE OF A
DEEPENING LONGWAVE TROUGH ACROSS THE CENTRAL/EASTERN CONUS ON
SUNDAY. A SURFACE CYCLONE ATTENDANT TO THE SHORTWAVE WILL DEEPEN AS
IT MOVES FROM THE SOUTHEAST TOWARD THE MID ATLANTIC AND EVENTUALLY
PARTS OF NEW ENGLAND. AS THIS OCCURS, A COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP
THROUGH MUCH OF THE SOUTHEAST AND THE NORTHERN/CENTRAL GULF OF
MEXICO.
...EASTERN CAROLINAS INTO THE TIDEWATER REGION...
ANTICIPATED WIDESPREAD CONVECTION ACROSS THE GULF COAST REGION INTO
PARTS OF THE GULF OF MEXICO ON DAYS 1-2 (FRIDAY/SATURDAY) RESULTS IN
CONSIDERABLE UNCERTAINTY REGARDING THE SEVERE THREAT DOWNSTREAM INTO
D3/SUNDAY. HOWEVER, THERE IS SOME POTENTIAL FOR REMNANT CONVECTION
FROM LATE IN THE D2/SATURDAY PERIOD TO IMPACT PARTS OF THE COASTAL
CAROLINAS ON SUNDAY MORNING. DEPENDING ON THE EXTENT OF INLAND
DESTABILIZATION, SOME THREAT FOR DAMAGING GUSTS AND POSSIBLY A
TORNADO OR TWO MAY ACCOMPANY THESE EARLY STORMS NEAR THE ATLANTIC
COAST.
BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON, THE EJECTING SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND SURFACE LOW
ARE FORECAST TO MOVE ACROSS THE CAROLINAS TOWARD THE MID ATLANTIC.
LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE RETURN MAY BE HAMPERED BY ANTECEDENT CONVECTION,
BUT AT LEAST WEAK DESTABILIZATION IN CONJUNCTION WITH STRENGTHENING
DEEP-LAYER WIND PROFILES WILL SUPPORT A CONDITIONAL RISK OF
ORGANIZED STORMS DURING THE AFTERNOON/EVENING FROM CENTRAL/EASTERN
NC INTO SOUTHEAST VA. IF DEEP CONVECTION CAN BE SUSTAINED IN THIS
AREA, STORMS CAPABLE OF LOCALLY DAMAGING GUSTS AND MAYBE A TORNADO
WILL BE POSSIBLE.
...CENTRAL/SOUTH FL...
STORMS ARE LIKELY TO SPREAD ACROSS PARTS OF CENTRAL/SOUTH FL IN
CONJUNCTION WITH THE COLD FRONT. TIMING OF THE FRONTAL PASSAGE
REMAINS SOMEWHAT UNCERTAIN, BUT PREFRONTAL MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY
WILL LIKELY BE SUFFICIENT TO SUSTAIN SOME SEVERE THREAT WITH FRONTAL
CONVECTION, EVEN IF THIS MOVES ACROSS THE PENINSULA RELATIVELY EARLY
IN THE DAY. DEEP-LAYER SHEAR WILL BE SUFFICIENT TO SUPPORT ORGANIZED
CELLS/CLUSTERS WITH A THREAT OF STRONG/DAMAGING GUSTS, ISOLATED
HAIL, AND PERHAPS A TORNADO.
..DEAN.. 04/28/2023
READ MORE
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SPC APR 28, 2023 DAY 4-8 SEVERE WEATHER OUTLOOK
DAY 4-8 OUTLOOK
DAY 4-8 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0323 AM CDT FRI APR 28 2023
VALID 011200Z - 061200Z
...DISCUSSION...
THE THREAT FOR ORGANIZED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS APPEARS QUITE LOW
DURING THE FIRST PART OF NEXT WEEK, WITH DRY AND STABLE CONDITIONS
EXPECTED FOR MOST AREAS EAST OF THE ROCKIES IN THE WAKE OF A
SEASONABLY STRONG COLD FRONT. A FEW STRONG THUNDERSTORMS CANNOT BE
RULED OUT ON D4/MONDAY AND D5/TUESDAY ACROSS PARTS OF THE INTERIOR
NORTHWEST, IN ASSOCIATION WITH A DEEP MID/UPPER-LEVEL CYCLONE
FORECAST TO BE CENTERED NEAR SOMEWHERE NEAR THE PACIFIC COAST.
MORE SUBSTANTIAL LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE RETURN APPEARS POSSIBLE
BEGINNING ON D6/WEDNESDAY FROM TEXAS INTO PARTS OF THE HIGH PLAINS,
AS A SURFACE RIDGE MOVES EASTWARD FROM THE CENTRAL PLAINS INTO THE
SOUTHEAST/OHIO VALLEY, AND A SURFACE CYCLONE GRADUALLY STRENGTHENS
IN THE LEE OF THE CENTRAL/NORTHERN ROCKIES. HOWEVER, THE HIGHLY
AMPLIFIED MID/UPPER-LEVEL PATTERN WILL LIKELY REMAIN UNFAVORABLE FOR
ORGANIZED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS, WITH STRONGER DEEP-LAYER FLOW/SHEAR
EXPECTED TO BE DISPLACED FROM ANY STRONGER DESTABILIZATION.
PREDICTABILITY REGARDING THE SURFACE AND UPPER PATTERN DECREASES BY
D7/THURSDAY INTO D8/FRIDAY, BUT CONTINUED LOW-LEVEL MOISTENING AND
THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME STRONGER MID/UPPER-LEVEL FLOW TO SPREAD EAST
OF THE ROCKIES COULD SUPPORT AN INCREASING SEVERE-THUNDERSTORM
THREAT ACROSS PARTS OF THE CENTRAL/SOUTHERN PLAINS INTO THE LOWER MS
VALLEY BY THE END OF THE WEEK.
READ MORE
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SPC DAY 1 FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK
SPC DAY 1 FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK
DAY 1 FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0127 AM CDT FRI APR 28 2023
VALID 281200Z - 291200Z
...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR SOUTHEAST ARIZONA INTO SOUTHWEST
NEW MEXICO...
...SYNOPSIS...
CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS PARTS OF
SOUTHEAST AZ INTO SOUTHWEST NM. AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH IS NOTED IN
EARLY-MORNING WATER-VAPOR IMAGERY MIGRATING SOUTHWARD TOWARDS
SOUTHERN NM. STRONG MID-LEVEL WINDS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FEATURE ARE
EXPECTED TO OVERSPREAD EASTERN AZ AND WESTERN NM DURING PEAK DAYTIME
HEATING. RECENT SURFACE OBSERVATIONS ACROSS THIS REGION SHOW POOR
OVERNIGHT RH RECOVERY WITH RH VALUES IN THE TEENS TO LOW 20S. RECENT
HIGH-RES GUIDANCE HAS CAPTURED THIS TREND WELL, AND DEPICTS
AFTERNOON RH FALLING INTO THE LOW TEENS (AND POSSIBLY SINGLE
DIGITS). A BROAD SWATH OF ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS APPEARS
LIKELY, WITH CRITICAL CONDITIONS PROBABLE ACROSS THE GILA REGION OF
SOUTHWEST NM/FAR SOUTHEAST AZ WHERE WINDS SHOULD APPROACH 20 MPH
WITHIN THE TERRAIN.
TO THE EAST ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS, A COLD FRONT IS PUSHING
SOUTHWARD, AND IS FORECAST TO REACH BIG BEND REGION BY LATE
AFTERNOON. DRY/WINDY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AHEAD OF THE FRONT
ACROSS SOUTHWEST TX, INCLUDING THE POTENTIAL FOR PERIODS OF CRITICAL
FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS. HOWEVER, THE TEMPORAL DURATION OF THE FIRE
WEATHER THREAT IS UNCERTAIN, GIVEN THE TIMING OF THE FRONT.
..MOORE.. 04/28/2023
...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV/FIRE FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
READ MORE
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SPC DAY 2 FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK
SPC DAY 2 FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK
DAY 2 FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0200 AM CDT FRI APR 28 2023
VALID 291200Z - 301200Z
...SYNOPSIS...
ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS PARTS OF THE
CENTRAL PLAINS SATURDAY AFTERNOON. A DEEPENING LOW OVER THE UPPER MS
VALLEY WILL STRENGTHEN THE REGIONAL PRESSURE GRADIENT OVER MUCH OF
THE CENTRAL AND NORTHERN PLAINS. NORTHERLY WINDS BETWEEN 15 TO 25
MPH ARE EXPECTED, WITH GUSTS AS HIGH AS 35-40 MPH POSSIBLE. DIURNAL
WARMING WILL ALLOW FOR RH REDUCTIONS INTO THE 20-30% RANGE FROM SD
INTO NE AND NORTHERN KS. ONE MITIGATING FACTOR IS FUEL STATUS, AS
RECENT ANALYSES SUGGEST 10-HOUR DEAD-FUEL MOISTURE VALUES ARE
GENERALLY ABOVE 15% AFTER RECENT RAINFALL. CONSEQUENTLY, THE
ELEVATED RISK AREA IS CONFINED TO LOCATIONS WHERE THE POTENTIAL FOR
PERIODS OF CRITICAL CONDITIONS BEST OVERLAPS WITH QPE MINIMUMS.
HOWEVER, REFINEMENTS TO THIS RISK AREA ARE POSSIBLE AS FINE FUELS
RESPOND TO DRY CONDITIONS OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
..MOORE.. 04/28/2023
...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV/FIRE FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
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