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LU9DCE > ALERT 11.05.19 07:03z 200 Lines 11174 Bytes #999 (0) @ WW
BID : 23929_LU9DCE
Read: GUEST
Subj: Storm Prediction Center 11 05
Path: HB9ON<IW0QNL<JH4XSY<N3HYM<LU9DCE
Sent: 190511/0701Z 23929@LU9DCE.TOR.BA.ARG.SOAM LinBPQ6.0.18
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ESTACION DE PACKET RADIO - BUENOS AIRES (GF05OM)
BOLETINES INFORMATIVOS PROGRAMADOS (BIP)
28.125 USB @ 300 BAUD --- HELLOCODELINUX@GMAIL.COM
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SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1249
AM CDT Sat May 11 2019
Valid 111200Z - 121200Z
...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM SOUTHEAST
TEXAS INTO SOUTHERN MISSISSIPPI...
...SUMMARY... Scattered thunderstorms with severe wind gusts and
hail, are expected on Saturday and Saturday night from southeast
Texas across much of the Southeast into the Carolinas. Isolated
severe hail/wind are also possible across portions of South Dakota
and Nebraska.
...Synopsis... A couple of synoptic-scale waves will dominate
the mid-level pattern across the CONUS today - one amplifying
southeastward across the Dakotas and Nebraska and another cut-off
low over northwestern Mexico. Downstream of the Mexico cutoff
low, a belt of enhanced mid-level flow will persist from Texas
east-northeastward to the Mid-Atlantic. Another cyclonically curved
mid-level jet will migrate southward from the northern High Plains
into Nebraska during the afternoon before shifting into Kansas
ahead of the amplifying trough.
A complicated surface pattern will exist across the southern/eastern
CONUS. A weak synoptic front will stretch from the Mid-Atlantic
southwestward to southeast Texas. This front will move little
throughout the forecast period as weak cyclogenesis occurs in
the Tennessee Valley. Meanwhile, one or more outflow boundaries
will likely reside along the Lower Mississippi River Valley in
response to ongoing convection in southern Mississippi/Louisiana.
Another surface low will shift southeastward across the Dakotas
today, with another cold front migrating southeastward across South
Dakota and Nebraska.
...Southeast Texas through the Carolinas... Scattered, mostly
elevated convection should be ongoing at the beginning of the period
across south Texas, with far more isolated convection expected
farther east from Mississippi toward the southern Appalachians.
Through mid-morning, models depict convection in Texas potentially
growing upscale while migrating eastward into Louisiana and
Mississippi during peak heating hours. Meanwhile, 20-kt southerly
850 mb flow will aid in recovery of a very moist airmass from the
northern Gulf of Mexico, and insolation should result in areas of
moderate to strong instability and minimal inhibition - especially
south of any surface boundaries. Storm mode and modestly strong
mid-level flow (approaching 50 knots in some areas) lends enough
confidence in a relatively focused area of wind-damage potential from
far southeast Texas into southern Mississippi, and a Slight risk
has been introduced for those areas. Isolated instances of large
hail and perhaps a tornado or two cannot be completely ruled out.
Farther downstream, moderate instability and sufficient deep
shear will exist for convection to develop over the course of the
afternoon. Storms should eventually evolve into a mix of cells and
linear bands with time, with damaging winds possible as mid-level
flow strengthens across the area. A lack of focused lifting
mechanism suggests that storms should be less focused compared to
areas farther west. A Slight risk may be needed in later updates
if a more focused damaging-wind threat becomes apparent.
...Eastern Nebraska and vicinity... The combination of surface
heating and rapid cooling aloft with approach of the mid-level wave
will contribute to enough instability to support scattered convection
- primarily before sunset. Models/CAMs suggest that these storms
should organize along a cold front migrating southeastward across
the region, with an attendant risk for isolated damaging wind gusts
and hail.
..Cook/Leitman.. 05/11/2019
SPC 0600Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1202
AM CDT Sat May 11 2019
Valid 121200Z - 131200Z
...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM EASTERN
ALABAMA ACROSS GEORGIA AND INTO THE CAROLINAS...
...SUMMARY... Scattered severe storms with wind or hail are possible
from Georgia into the Carolinas on Sunday, with isolated activity
across Alabama, Mississippi, Louisiana and the Florida Panhandle.
...Synopsis... An upper trough will move from the mid MS Valley
toward the Mid Atlantic with a broad area of 35-45 kt midlevel
southwesterly winds across the Southeast. Gradual height falls and
cooling aloft will occur ahead of the trough, aiding in large-scale
lift. At the surface, low pressure will exist from WV into VA,
with a stationary front near the VA/NC border. A cold front will
extend southwestward from the Appalachians to LA during the day and
will gradually shift east. Southwest winds ahead of the front will
maintain 60s F dewpoints and an unstable air mass across the region,
which will support areas of severe weather.
To the west, an upper low will move eastward across northern Mexico,
approaching the southern High Plains late. Cooling aloft with this
feature as well as southeast surface winds will support scattered
afternoon and evening storms across southern NM into southwest TX.
...Southeast into the Mid Atlantic... An extensive area of rain
and thunderstorms may be ongoing Sunday morning from southeast LA
across southern MS, AL, and into northern GA, with a few strong wind
gusts possible depending on organization at that time. In general,
the air mass to the east will destabilize with areas of heating,
beneath southwesterly 850 mb winds of 30-40 kt. Deep-layer shear
will also increase especially across the Mid Atlantic overnight. SRH
will be minimal except for perhaps along the VA/NC boundary where
a supercell is possible. Otherwise, areas of strong to severe wind
gusts are expected as storms evolve eastward through the period.
...Southeast NM into southwest TX... Strong heating beneath
cool temperatures aloft will lead to steep lapse rates supporting
scattered storms from late afternoon through evening. Southeast
surface winds will aid in minimal but sufficient westward
moisture transport and upslope. Slow-moving storms are likely by
late afternoon over much of NM, drifting into parts of west TX
during the evening. Small cells capable of marginal hail are most
likely. Increasing mid to upper level winds late may support an
isolated supercell over west TX.
...MAXIMUM RISK BY HAZARD... Tornado: 2% - Marginal Wind:
15% - Slight Hail: 5% - Marginal
..Jewell.. 05/11/2019
SPC 0730Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0121
AM CDT Sat May 11 2019
Valid 131200Z - 141200Z
...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS
OF SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL TEXAS...
...SUMMARY... A few storms may produce hail across parts of Texas
on Monday.
...Synopsis... An upper low will move from the OH Valley into the
Northeast with trough axis sweeping across the Mid Atlantic by 18Z
Monday. Low pressure is forecast over eastern NC early with a cold
front clearing the coastal Carolinas by early afternoon. Moisture
and instability will remain over much of FL, with the front sinking
south across northern FL during the day. However, strong westerly
winds just off the surface will work to dry and stabilize the air
mass across the entire area.
To the west, a weaker upper low will move into the southern High
Plains, with easterly winds aiding moisture return into Deep South
TX. Areas of weak lift along with the presence of instability and
favorable winds aloft may support a few severe storms capable of
mainly hail.
...Much of central/southern TX... Areas of thunderstorms are
likely to be ongoing across parts of southwest TX and southern
NM Monday morning related to the upper low. As this low continues
east across TX, lift will increase aloft, with possible elevated
storms capable of marginal hail. Cool temperatures as well as long,
effectively straight hodographs will support hail formation.
...Mid Atlantic into FL... While the surface front may not be off
the coast at 12Z Monday morning, dry air aloft will reduce storm
chances over time. The greatest threat of isolated strong storms
appears to be over the eastern FL Peninsula where weak low-level
convergence will exist along with sufficient instability for an
isolated strong storm with wind.
..Jewell.. 05/11/2019
SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1238 AM CDT Sat May 11 2019
Valid 111200Z - 121200Z
...NO CRITICAL AREAS...
...Synopsis... An upper low/trough will dive southeast across the
northern and central Plains to the Mid-MO Valley today. Showers
and thunderstorms are expected ahead of this feature across much
of the Dakotas into NE and IA. Northerly winds on the back side of
this system and in the wake of a surface cold front will overspread
much of central and eastern MT. Temperatures are expected to warm
into the 60s and 70s and RH values could fall as low as 15 percent,
especially across north-central MT. North winds may initially be
breezy at around 15-20 mph but are expected to diminish through
the afternoon. Brief, locally elevated conditions are possible,
but overall threat appears limited given weakening wind fields and
marginally receptive fuel conditions.
Dry and very warm conditions will also continue across portions of
the Pacific Northwest as an upper ridge builds across the region.
However, surface winds will become more westerly and generally
remain light at less than 10 mph, limiting fire weather concerns.
..Leitman.. 05/11/2019
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...
SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1238 AM CDT Sat May 11 2019
Valid 121200Z - 131200Z
...NO CRITICAL AREAS...
...Synopsis... Conditions will be similar on Sunday as those on
Saturday. A couple of upper lows/troughs will shift east, one from
the Mid-MO Valley to the eastern U.S., the other across northern
Mexico. This will allow the Pacific Northwest upper ridge to spread
eastward across the northern Rockies and Great Basin. Temperatures
will be a bit lower across OR/WA and RH values will climb with
onshore flow. Overall, fire weather concerns will be low across
the CONUS.
..Leitman.. 05/11/2019
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...
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1648 files (84%) out of the files that I mirror disappeared. Since my delete
threshold was set at 90%, all those files are now missing from my hard drive.
It's going to take a loooong time to fetch those again via 14.4kbps!
-- Brian C. White
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