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LU9DCE > ALERT 29.04.23 13:11z 263 Lines 10013 Bytes #999 (0) @ WW
BID : 9068_LU9DCE
Read: GUEST
Subj: STORM PREDICTION CENTER 29-APR23
Path: HB9ON<IW8PGT<I3XTY<I0OJJ<GB7CIP<VE3KPG<VE3UIL<LU9DCE
Sent: 230429/1300Z 9068@LU9DCE.TOR.BA.ARG.SOAM LinBPQ6.0.23
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PACKET RADIO STATION - BUENOS AIRES (GF05OM)
PHP SCHEDULED NEWSLETTERS (PSN)
COPYRIGHT 2023 - EDUARDO A. CASTILLO
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SPC - NO WATCHES ARE VALID AS OF SAT APR 29 10:57:02 UTC 2023
NO WATCHES ARE VALID AS OF SAT APR 29 10:57:02 UTC 2023.
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SPC - NO MDS ARE IN EFFECT AS OF SAT APR 29 10:57:02 UTC 2023
NO MESOSCALE DISCUSSIONS ARE IN EFFECT AS OF SAT APR 29 10:57:02 UTC 2023.
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SPC APR 29, 2023 0600 UTC DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
SPC 0600Z DAY 2 OUTLOOK
DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1259 AM CDT SAT APR 29 2023
VALID 301200Z - 011200Z
...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM EASTERN NC
INTO SOUTHEAST VA...AND ACROSS PARTS OF CENTRAL/SOUTH FL...
...SUMMARY...
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS PARTS OF THE CAROLINAS
INTO THE MID ATLANTIC TODAY, AND ALSO ACROSS PARTS OF CENTRAL AND
SOUTH FLORIDA. DAMAGING WINDS AND A FEW TORNADOES WILL BE THE
PRIMARY HAZARDS, THOUGH ISOLATED HAIL WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE.
...SYNOPSIS...
A MID/UPPER-LEVEL SHORTWAVE WILL EJECT QUICKLY NORTHEASTWARD FROM
THE SOUTHEAST SUNDAY MORNING INTO NEW ENGLAND BY EVENING, AS A
LONGWAVE TROUGH AMPLIFIES OVER THE CENTRAL/EASTERN CONUS. A SURFACE
CYCLONE WILL DEEPEN AS IT MOVES FROM THE CAROLINAS TOWARD THE MID
ATLANTIC AND NORTHEAST. AS THIS OCCURS, A COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP
THROUGH MUCH OF THE SOUTHEAST AND THE NORTHERN/CENTRAL GULF OF
MEXICO.
...CAROLINAS INTO THE MID ATLANTIC...
CONVECTION WILL LIKELY BE ONGOING SUNDAY MORNING ACROSS PARTS OF THE
CAROLINAS, WITHIN A FAVORABLY SHEARED AND AT LEAST WEAKLY UNSTABLE
ENVIRONMENT. SOME THREAT FOR DAMAGING GUSTS AND A TORNADO OR TWO
WILL BE POSSIBLE ANY OF THE STRONGER CELLS/CLUSTERS DURING THE
MORNING, BEFORE THIS EARLY CONVECTION MOVES OFFSHORE OR
NORTHEASTWARD INTO THE MID ATLANTIC.
IN THE WAKE OF THE EARLY CONVECTION, STORMS MAY REDEVELOP CLOSER TO
THE TRACK OF THE EJECTING SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND SURFACE LOW,
PRIMARILY ALONG THE COLD FRONT. STRONG DEEP-LAYER SHEAR WILL
CONTINUE TO SUPPORT ORGANIZED STORMS, THOUGH THE MAGNITUDE OF
INSTABILITY REMAINS UNCERTAIN AT THIS TIME. AN ORGANIZED CLUSTER OR
TWO ALONG THE FRONT WILL BE POSSIBLE, POSING A THREAT OF DAMAGING
GUSTS. LOW-LEVEL FLOW/SHEAR WILL ALSO LIKELY BE SUFFICIENT TO
SUPPORT A TORNADO OR TWO WITH THESE AFTERNOON STORMS, ESPECIALLY IF
A DISCRETE SUPERCELL OR TWO CAN BE SUSTAINED.
THE NORTHERN EXTENT OF THE THREAT REMAINS UNCERTAIN, BUT MODEST
DESTABILIZATION APPEARS POSSIBLE INTO AT LEAST THE DELMARVA REGION,
WHERE SOME THREAT FOR DAMAGING GUSTS AND POSSIBLY A TORNADO MAY
DEVELOP LATE IN THE AFTERNOON OR EVENING AS THE SURFACE LOW TRACKS
ACROSS THE AREA.
...CENTRAL/SOUTH FLORIDA...
WIDESPREAD CONVECTION WILL ALSO LIKELY BE ONGOING ACROSS THE FL
PENINSULA SUNDAY MORNING. WHILE STRONGER LARGE-SCALE ASCENT WILL
MOVING QUICKLY AWAY FROM THIS REGION, ORGANIZED STORMS WILL REMAIN
POSSIBLE ALONG/AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT, WITHIN A MODERATELY UNSTABLE
AND FAVORABLY SHEARED ENVIRONMENT. LOW-LEVEL SHEAR WILL BE
SUFFICIENT TO SUPPORT SOME TORNADO THREAT, ESPECIALLY DURING THE
MORNING BEFORE LOW-LEVEL FLOW BEGINS TO WEAKEN. OTHERWISE,
STRONG/DAMAGING GUSTS AND SOME HAIL WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THE
STRONGEST CELLS/CLUSTERS, BEFORE THE COLD FRONT CLEARS THE FL
PENINSULA SOMETIME DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON OR EVENING.
..DEAN.. 04/29/2023
READ MORE
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SPC APR 29, 2023 0730 UTC DAY 3 SEVERE THUNDERSTORM OUTLOOK
SPC 0730Z DAY 3 OUTLOOK
DAY 3 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0215 AM CDT SAT APR 29 2023
VALID 011200Z - 021200Z
...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...
...SUMMARY...
THE SEVERE-THUNDERSTORM THREAT IS EXPECTED TO BE LOW ON MONDAY.
...SYNOPSIS...
A HIGHLY AMPLIFIED PATTERN IS EXPECTED TO PERSIST ON MONDAY. A DEEP
LONGWAVE TROUGH WILL REMAIN IN PLACE ACROSS THE CENTRAL/EASTERN
CONUS, WITH A LARGE DEEP-LAYER CYCLONE REMAINING CENTERED SOMEWHERE
NEAR THE UPPER GREAT LAKES REGION. DRY AND STABLE CONDITIONS WILL
PREVAIL OVER MOST AREAS EAST OF THE ROCKIES, WITH VERY LIMITED
THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL. SOME LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE RETURN WILL BE
POSSIBLE ACROSS SOUTH TX, BUT THIS AREA WILL LIKELY REMAIN CAPPED
THROUGH THE PERIOD.
ACROSS THE WEST, A DEEP MID/UPPER-LEVEL CYCLONE CENTERED JUST OFF OF
THE PACIFIC COAST IS FORECAST TO MOVE SLOWLY SOUTHWARD ON MONDAY.
MODEST INSTABILITY AND DIFLUENT UPPER-LEVEL FLOW TO THE
NORTH/NORTHEAST OF THE CYCLONE WILL SUPPORT THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL
ACROSS PARTS OF THE INTERIOR NORTHWEST. A FEW STRONG STORMS CAPABLE
OF SMALL HAIL AND LOCALLY STRONG GUSTS WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS PARTS
OF OR/WA, BUT AT THIS TIME INSTABILITY APPEARS TOO WEAK TO SUPPORT A
MORE ORGANIZED SEVERE-THUNDERSTORM THREAT.
..DEAN.. 04/29/2023
READ MORE
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SPC APR 29, 2023 DAY 4-8 SEVERE WEATHER OUTLOOK
DAY 4-8 OUTLOOK
DAY 4-8 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0244 AM CDT SAT APR 29 2023
VALID 021200Z - 071200Z
...DISCUSSION...
A HIGHLY AMPLIFIED PATTERN IS EXPECTED TO PERSIST THROUGH MOST OF
THE EXTENDED-RANGE PERIOD, WITH GENERALLY DRY AND STABLE CONDITIONS
RESULTING IN A LIMITED SEVERE-THUNDERSTORM THREAT THROUGH MIDWEEK. A
FEW STRONG STORMS MAY OCCUR ACROSS PARTS OF THE INTERIOR NORTHWEST
ON D4/TUESDAY AND D5/WEDNESDAY, AS A DEEP MID/UPPER-LEVEL CYCLONE
MEANDERS NEAR THE PACIFIC COAST. WEAK CONVECTION WILL ALSO BE
POSSIBLE ACROSS PARTS OF THE HIGH PLAINS THROUGH MIDWEEK, AND
PERHAPS OVER PORTIONS OF THE MIDWEST IN A NORTHWESTERLY FLOW REGIME.
BY D6/THURSDAY INTO NEXT WEEKEND, CONTINUED LOW-LEVEL MOISTENING AND
THE POTENTIAL FOR SOMEWHAT STRONGER DEEP-LAYER FLOW/SHEAR TO SPREAD
EAST OF THE ROCKIES MAY SUPPORT AN INCREASING SEVERE-THUNDERSTORM
THREAT ACROSS PARTS OF THE SOUTHERN PLAINS INTO THE LOWER MS VALLEY,
THOUGH PREDICTABILITY REMAINS LOW REGARDING THE TIMING AND LOCATION
OF ANY SUCH THREAT.
READ MORE
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SPC DAY 1 FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK
SPC DAY 1 FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK
DAY 1 FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0135 AM CDT SAT APR 29 2023
VALID 291200Z - 301200Z
...SYNOPSIS...
ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS
PARTS OF THE CENTRAL PLAINS. LATEST WATER-VAPOR IMAGERY AND
UPPER-AIR ANALYSES SHOW A STRONG UPPER JET ASSOCIATED WITH AN
APPROACHING WAVE NOSING INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS. SURFACE PRESSURE
FALLS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FEATURE ARE ALREADY NOTED ACROSS PARTS OF
THE UPPER MS VALLEY REGION, AND A DIFFUSE SURFACE LOW OVER THE GREAT
LAKES IS FORECAST TO DEEPEN OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. THIS WILL
AUGMENT REGIONAL PRESSURE-GRADIENT WINDS ACROSS MUCH OF THE PLAINS
THIS AFTERNOON. WIDESPREAD SUSTAINED WINDS BETWEEN 15-25 MPH ARE
ANTICIPATED FROM THE DAKOTAS SOUTHWARD INTO KS WITH GUSTS UP TO
35-45 MPH PROBABLE. DIURNAL WARMING, COUPLED WITH AN UNSEASONABLY
DRY AIR MASS (DEWPOINT VALUES NEAR THE 10TH PERCENTILE FOR LATE
APRIL ACROSS CENTRAL NE), WILL FOSTER AFTERNOON RH REDUCTIONS INTO
THE LOW 20S TO TEENS. CONSEQUENTLY, A BROAD SWATH OF ELEVATED FIRE
WEATHER CONDITIONS IS EXPECTED WITH PERIODIC CRITICAL CONDITIONS
POSSIBLE. HOWEVER, FUELS REMAIN ONLY SOMEWHAT RECEPTIVE ACROSS THE
REGION AFTER RECENT RAINFALL. THE ELEVATED RISK IS MAINTAINED OVER
AREAS WHERE FUELS SHOULD BE MOST RECEPTIVE AND ELEVATED/CRITICAL
WIND/RH CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED.
..MOORE.. 04/29/2023
...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV/FIRE FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
READ MORE
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SPC DAY 2 FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK
SPC DAY 2 FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK
DAY 2 FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0208 AM CDT SAT APR 29 2023
VALID 301200Z - 011200Z
...SYNOPSIS...
ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST ACROSS THE
PLAINS ON SUNDAY, BUT WILL MAINLY BE FOCUSED ACROSS PORTIONS OF NE
AND KS. SHORT TO MEDIUM-RANGE GUIDANCE SHOWS A SOMEWHAT STAGNANT
UPPER-LEVEL PATTERN OVER THE NEXT 48 HOURS, WITH A PERSISTENT
SURFACE LOW LINGERING OVER THE UPPER MS VALLEY/GREAT LAKES REGION.
THIS WILL MAINTAIN A STRONG PRESSURE GRADIENT OVER THE PLAINS WITH
ANOTHER DAY OF SUSTAINED 15-25 MPH WINDS (GUSTING TO 30-40 MPH)
LIKELY. AN INFLUX OF COOLER CONTINENTAL AIR WILL LIMIT THE SPATIAL
EXTENT OF SUB-25% RH REDUCTIONS, AND RECENT ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE
SUGGESTS THE HIGHEST PROBABILITY FOR FAVORABLE OVERLAP OF DRY/BREEZY
CONDITIONS RESIDES OVER PARTS OF NE TO NORTHERN KS. WHILE PARTS OF
THIS REGION HAVE RECEIVED RECENT RAINFALL, LOCAL FUEL ANALYSES SHOW
ERCS GENERALLY IN THE 60-90TH PERCENTILE RANGE, WHICH SHOULD SUPPORT
THE FIRE WEATHER CONCERN. FORECAST ADJUSTMENTS ARE POSSIBLE GIVEN
THE POTENTIAL FOR DRYING OF FINE GRASSES ON D1/SATURDAY.
...EASTERN NEW MEXICO TO WEST TEXAS...
LOCALIZED ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE SUNDAY
AFTERNOON ACROSS PARTS OF THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS. INCREASING
DOWNSLOPE FLOW OFF THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES WILL FOSTER WARMING/DRYING
ACROSS EASTERN NM TO WEST TX. WINDS NEAR 15 MPH, COUPLED WITH 15-20%
RH, SHOULD ALLOW FOR AREAS OF ELEVATED CONDITIONS. HOWEVER, THE
DISPLACEMENT OF THIS REGION FROM THE STRONGER MID-LEVEL FLOW TO THE
NORTH CASTS SOME UNCERTAINTY ONTO THE SPATIAL COVERAGE AND DURATION
OF ELEVATED CONDITIONS. TRENDS WILL BE MONITORED, AND AN ADDITIONAL
RISK AREA MAY BE NEEDED CONSIDERING THE FAIRLY DRY FUELS ACROSS
PARTS OF THE REGION.
..MOORE.. 04/29/2023
...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV/FIRE FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
READ MORE
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