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LU9DCE > ALERT 01.05.23 13:06z 398 Lines 16553 Bytes #999 (0) @ WW
BID : 9152_LU9DCE
Read: GUEST
Subj: STORM PREDICTION CENTER 01-MAY23
Path: HB9ON<IW0QNL<IZ3LSV<I0OJJ<EA2RCF<LU9DCE
Sent: 230501/1201Z 9152@LU9DCE.TOR.BA.ARG.SOAM LinBPQ6.0.23
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SPC - NO WATCHES ARE VALID AS OF MON MAY 1 09:02:02 UTC 2023
NO WATCHES ARE VALID AS OF MON MAY 1 09:02:02 UTC 2023.
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SPC - NO MDS ARE IN EFFECT AS OF MON MAY 1 09:02:02 UTC 2023
NO MESOSCALE DISCUSSIONS ARE IN EFFECT AS OF MON MAY 1 09:02:02 UTC 2023.
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SPC MAY 1, 2023 0600 UTC DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
SPC 1200Z DAY 1 OUTLOOK
DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1226 AM CDT MON MAY 01 2023
VALID 011200Z - 021200Z
...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS LATE THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING ACROSS PARTS OF NORTHWESTERN NEVADA INTO
SOUTHEASTERN AND CENTRAL OREGON...
...SUMMARY...
STRONG THUNDERSTORMS MAY IMPACT PARTS OF NORTHWESTERN NEVADA INTO
SOUTHEASTERN AND CENTRAL OREGON LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING,
ACCOMPANIED BY AT LEAST SOME RISK FOR SEVERE WIND GUSTS.
...SYNOPSIS...
A BLOCKING MID/UPPER HIGH PERSISTS OVER THE NEWFOUNDLAND AND
LABRADOR VICINITY. HOWEVER, A PAIR OF FLANKING LOWS TO ITS
SOUTHEAST AND, PARTICULARLY, SOUTHWEST HAVE BECOME MUCH MORE
PROMINENT.
THE WESTERN LOW IS NOW CENTERED OVER THE GREAT LAKES, BUT CYCLONIC
FLOW ENCOMPASSES MUCH OF THE U.S. TO THE EAST OF THE ROCKIES. THIS
LOW MAY REFORM A BIT FARTHER TO THE EAST (FROM LOWER MICHIGAN INTO
THE LOWER GREAT LAKES) TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT, IN RESPONSE TO A
SIGNIFICANT MID-LEVEL PERTURBATION PIVOTING AROUND ITS EASTERN
THROUGH NORTHERN PERIPHERY. AT THE SAME TIME, A DEEP, OCCLUDING
SURFACE CYCLONE WILL GRADUALLY BECOME CENTERED BENEATH IT, WITH THE
TRAILING COLD FRONT ADVANCING AWAY FROM MUCH OF THE ATLANTIC
SEABOARD, WHILE SLOWING AND/OR STALLING ACROSS THE FLORIDA PENINSULA
AND NORTHERN GULF OF MEXICO INTO THE TEXAS SOUTH PLAINS.
IN THE WAKE OF A PRECEDING COLD FRONT (AS FAR SOUTH AS THE BAHAMAS,
CARIBBEAN AND SOUTHWESTERN GULF OF MEXICO AT THE OUTSET OF THE
PERIOD), ONLY A GRADUAL BOUNDARY-LAYER MODIFICATION MAY COMMENCE
ACROSS THE FLORIDA PENINSULA, NORTHERN AND WESTERN GULF, AND
SOUTHERN TEXAS. DRY AND/OR STABLE CONDITIONS WILL GENERALLY PREVAIL
ACROSS MOST AREAS EAST OF THE ROCKIES, WITH NEGLIGIBLE RISK FOR
THUNDERSTORMS, ASIDE FROM PERHAPS AREAS TO THE EAST OF THE LOWER
GREAT LAKES, BENEATH THE MID-LEVEL COLD CORE.
MEANWHILE, ACROSS THE EASTERN PACIFIC INTO WESTERN NORTH AMERICA,
MODELS INDICATE THAT ANOTHER LOW WILL CONTINUE TO EVOLVE WITHIN
ELONGATED MID/UPPER TROUGHING NEAR THE PACIFIC COAST, AND BECOME CUT
OFF FROM THE WESTERLIES WHILE DIGGING NEAR/OFFSHORE OF THE COAST
TOWARD THE SAN FRANCISCO BAY VICINITY BY 12Z TUESDAY. A COLD FRONT
ALREADY ADVANCING INLAND OF MUCH OF THE PACIFIC COAST IS FORECAST TO
ADVANCE ACROSS THE SIERRA NEVADA, AND SOUTHWARD NEAR/TO THE WEST OF
BAJA CALIFORNIA, TO THE SOUTH OF SLOWLY DEEPENING LOW PRESSURE OVER
THE INTERIOR NORTHWEST. HOWEVER, DUE TO THE LACK OF A SUBSTANTIVE
RETURN FLOW OF MOISTURE FROM THE SUBTROPICAL PACIFIC, IT APPEARS
THAT MOISTURE CONTENT ACROSS MUCH OF THE WEST WILL REMAIN RELATIVELY
LOW. SOME THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY MIGHT DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING ACROSS PARTS THE GREAT BASIN AND NORTHERN INTERMOUNTAIN
REGION, INTO THE ROCKIES, AND PERHAPS NEAR CENTRAL CALIFORNIA
COASTAL AREAS BY LATE TONIGHT, BUT THIS PROBABLY WILL REMAIN RATHER
SPARSE IN COVERAGE.
...NORTHERN GREAT BASIN/INTERMOUNTAIN REGION...
A RELATIVE CONCENTRATION OF THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY MAY BECOME FOCUSED
NEAR/AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT TRAILING THE SURFACE LOW, ACROSS PARTS
OF NORTHWESTERN NEVADA INTO SOUTHEASTERN OREGON LATE THIS AFTERNOON
INTO EVENING. IT APPEARS THAT THIS COULD BE AIDED BY MID-LEVEL
FORCING FOR ASCENT DOWNSTREAM OF A SHORT WAVE PERTURBATION PIVOTING
AROUND THE DEVELOPING COASTAL MID/UPPER LOW.
DESPITE THE LIMITED BOUNDARY-LAYER MOISTURE, IT APPEARS THAT
STEEPENING LAPSE RATES SUPPORTED BY DIFFERENTIAL THERMAL ADVECTION,
DAYTIME HEATING AND DEEP MIXING WILL YIELD SUFFICIENT CAPE FOR
THUNDERSTORM INITIATION. INITIALLY SCATTERED, THIS ACTIVITY MAY
CONGEAL INTO A NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD PROPAGATING CLUSTER INTO EARLY
EVENING, IN THE PRESENCE OF STRONG DEEP-LAYER SHEAR, WITH DOWNWARD
MIXING OF STRONGER FLOW FROM ALOFT (30-50+ KT FLOW IN THE 700-500 MB
LAYER) IN CONSOLIDATING DOWNDRAFTS CONTRIBUTING TO THE RISK FOR AT
LEAST LOCALLY SEVERE GUSTS.
..KERR/MOORE.. 05/01/2023
READ MORE
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SPC MAY 1, 2023 0600 UTC DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
SPC 0600Z DAY 2 OUTLOOK
DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1256 AM CDT MON MAY 01 2023
VALID 021200Z - 031200Z
...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...
...SUMMARY...
THE SEVERE-THUNDERSTORM THREAT GENERALLY APPEARS LOW ON TUESDAY,
THOUGH A FEW STRONG STORMS CANNOT BE RULED OUT DURING THE AFTERNOON
AND EVENING ACROSS PARTS OF THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS.
...SYNOPSIS...
LITTLE CHANGE TO THE LARGE-SCALE PATTERN IN EXPECTED ON TUESDAY. A
DEEP LONGWAVE UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN CONUS AND EMBEDDED
DEEP-LAYER CYCLONE NEAR THE UPPER GREAT LAKES ARE FORECAST TO SHIFT
ONLY GRADUALLY EASTWARD THROUGH THE DAY. MEANWHILE, A
MID/UPPER-LEVEL CYCLONE IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE DRIFTING SOUTHWARD
NEAR THE PACIFIC COAST. DRY AND STABLE CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE TO
LIMIT THUNDERSTORM CHANCES FOR MOST AREAS ACROSS THE CENTRAL/EASTERN
CONUS, THOUGH SOME THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL WILL BEGIN RETURNING TO
PARTS OF THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS.
...SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS...
LOW-LEVEL SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW WILL RESULT IN MODEST MOISTENING AND
DESTABILIZATION ON TUESDAY ACROSS PARTS OF THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS.
MEANWHILE, A WEAK MIDLEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH INITIALLY OVER THE
SOUTHERN ROCKIES IS FORECAST TO MOVE NORTHEASTWARD THROUGH THE DAY.
ASCENT ATTENDANT TO THIS SHORTWAVE TROUGH, COMBINED WITH
HEATING/MIXING ALONG THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE RETURNING
MOISTURE, WILL RESULT IN WIDELY SCATTERED THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT
BY LATE AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING.
WHILE WIND PROFILES WILL BE FAVORABLY VEERED, WITH LOW-LEVEL
SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW BENEATH MID/UPPER-LEVEL SOUTHWESTERLIES, IT STILL
APPEARS THAT WEAK TROPOSPHERIC WIND SPEEDS WILL LIMIT BULK SHEAR AND
SRH ACROSS THE REGION. STEEP MIDLEVEL LAPSE RATES AND MODEST
BUOYANCY WILL SUPPORT SOME HAIL WITH THE STRONGEST STORMS, BUT
SEVERE HAIL POTENTIAL MAY BE HAMPERED BY WEAK DEEP-LAYER SHEAR, IN
THE ABSENCE OF STRONGER BUOYANCY. STRONG OUTFLOW GUSTS WILL ALSO BE
POSSIBLE, ESPECIALLY WHERE CONVECTION DEVELOPS OR MOVES INTO A
REGION WHERE STRONGER DIURNAL HEATING OCCURS. IF EITHER INSTABILITY
OR DEEP-LAYER FLOW/SHEAR ENDS UP BEING SOMEWHAT STRONGER THAN
CURRENTLY ANTICIPATED, THEN SEVERE PROBABILITIES MAY EVENTUALLY BE
NEEDED.
...INTERIOR NORTHWEST...
WIDELY SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL AGAIN BE POSSIBLE ACROSS PARTS
OF THE INTERIOR NORTHWEST TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING, IN
ASSOCIATION WITH THE MID/UPPER-LEVEL LOW NEAR THE PACIFIC COAST AND
VORTICITY MAXIMA EMBEDDED WITHIN THE CYCLONIC FLOW. MODEST
HEATING/DESTABILIZATION AND FAVORABLE DEEP-LAYER SHEAR WILL SUPPORT
SOME POTENTIAL FOR SMALL HAIL AND GUSTY WINDS WITH THE STRONGEST
STORMS, ESPECIALLY ACROSS PARTS OF OR AND ALSO NORTHERN ID INTO
WESTERN MT, BUT THE SEVERE THREAT APPEARS TOO ISOLATED AND LIMITED
IN MAGNITUDE FOR PROBABILITIES AT THIS TIME.
..DEAN.. 05/01/2023
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SPC MAY 1, 2023 0730 UTC DAY 3 SEVERE THUNDERSTORM OUTLOOK
SPC 0730Z DAY 3 OUTLOOK
DAY 3 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0223 AM CDT MON MAY 01 2023
VALID 031200Z - 041200Z
...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...
...SUMMARY...
THE SEVERE-THUNDERSTORM THREAT IS EXPECTED TO BE LOW ON WEDNESDAY.
...SYNOPSIS...
THE PERSISTENT AMPLIFIED PATTERN WILL AGAIN PREVAIL ACROSS THE CONUS
ON WEDNESDAY. THE DEEP UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE EAST IS EXPECTED
TO GRADUALLY MOVE EASTWARD THROUGH THE DAY, WHILE THE
MID/UPPER-LEVEL CYCLONE OFF OF THE PACIFIC COAST MAY START TO TAKE
ON A MORE EASTERLY COMPONENT OF MOTION LATE IN THE PERIOD,
POTENTIALLY APPROACHING SOUTHERN CA BY THURSDAY MORNING. A SURFACE
RIDGE INITIALLY OVER THE CENTRAL CONUS IS FORECAST TO GRADUALLY
SHIFT EASTWARD, WHICH WILL ALLOW FOR INCREASING SOUTHERLY LOW-LEVEL
FLOW AND SOME MOISTURE TRANSPORT INTO PARTS OF THE CENTRAL PLAINS.
...CENTRAL/SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS...
WEAK TO MODERATE BUOYANCY WILL AGAIN DEVELOP ACROSS PARTS OF THE
SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS ON WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON, AND LIKELY SPREAD
FARTHER NORTH (COMPARED TO D2/TUESDAY) INTO PARTS OF THE CENTRAL
HIGH PLAINS. AS ON D2/TUESDAY, WIND PROFILES ALONG THE INSTABILITY
AXIS WILL BE FAVORABLY VEERED, BUT WEAK DEEP-LAYER FLOW WILL LIMIT
THE MAGNITUDE OF BULK SHEAR AND SRH ACROSS THE REGION. THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPMENT IS EXPECTED DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING WITHIN AN
UNCAPPED ENVIRONMENT, THOUGH MID/UPPER-LEVEL RIDGING MAY LIMIT STORM
COVERAGE TO SOME EXTENT, ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS.
THE STRONGER STORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF SMALL HAIL AND STRONG GUSTS,
BUT THE SEVERE POTENTIAL APPEARS TOO LIMITED FOR PROBABILITIES AT
THIS TIME. A STRONGER MID/UPPER-LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS EXPECTED
TO EMERGE FROM THE SUBTROPICAL PACIFIC AND MOVE OVER THE SOUTHERN
ROCKIES ON WEDNESDAY NIGHT, BUT THIS WILL LIKELY BE TOO LATE TO
INFLUENCE ANY SEVERE POTENTIAL DURING THE D3/WEDNESDAY PERIOD.
...INTERIOR NORTHWEST...
MODEST HEATING/DESTABILIZATION WILL AGAIN SUPPORT THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPMENT ACROSS PARTS OF THE INTERIOR NORTHWEST ON WEDNESDAY.
GUIDANCE CURRENTLY SUGGESTS THAT A MIDLEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH
EMBEDDED WITHIN THE BROADER CYCLONIC FLOW MAY BE FAVORABLY TIMED FOR
STORM DEVELOPMENT DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON/EVENING ACROSS NORTHERN
OR INTO SOUTHERN WA, AND A FEW STRONG STORMS CAPABLE OF AT LEAST
SMALL HAIL AND GUSTY WINDS WILL BE POSSIBLE IN THIS REGION.
..DEAN.. 05/01/2023
READ MORE
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SPC MAY 1, 2023 DAY 4-8 SEVERE WEATHER OUTLOOK
DAY 4-8 OUTLOOK
DAY 4-8 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0358 AM CDT MON MAY 01 2023
VALID 041200Z - 091200Z
...DISCUSSION...
...D4/THURSDAY: SOUTHERN/CENTRAL PLAINS...
A MID/UPPER-LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS FORECAST TO MOVE ACROSS PARTS
OF THE SOUTHERN PLAINS ON THURSDAY. THIS WAVE WILL LIKELY DEAMPLIFY
AS IT CRESTS A SHORTWAVE RIDGE, BUT MODERATE MID/UPPER-LEVEL FLOW IS
EXPECTED TO OVERSPREAD AN INCREASINGLY MOIST AND UNSTABLE AIRMASS
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS DURING THE AFTERNOON. SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT IS EXPECTED ALONG THE DRYLINE, WITH
MODERATE BUOYANCY AND INCREASINGLY FAVORABLE DEEP-LAYER SHEAR
SUPPORTING THE POTENTIAL FOR ORGANIZED CLUSTERS AND A FEW
SUPERCELLS, WITH AN ATTENDANT THREAT OF LARGE HAIL AND LOCALIZED
SEVERE GUSTS. A 15% AREA HAS BEEN ADDED WHERE CONFIDENCE IS
CURRENTLY GREATEST IN ORGANIZED CONVECTION DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON
AND EARLY EVENING, WITH SOME FUTURE ADJUSTMENTS LIKELY BASED ON
DRYLINE POSITION AND NORTHERN EXTENT OF STRONGER DEEP-LAYER
FLOW/SHEAR.
...D5/FRIDAY AND BEYOND...
PREDICTABILITY BEGINS TO WANE AS SOON AS D5/FRIDAY WITH REGARD TO
ORGANIZED SEVERE-THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL. THE MID/UPPER-LEVEL LOW
THAT WILL PERSIST NEAR THE PACIFIC COAST FOR MUCH OF THE WEEK IS
FORECAST TO BEGIN EJECTING NORTHEASTWARD ON THURSDAY, WEAKENING AS
IT DOES SO. THE REMNANT MID/UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH WILL THEN GRADUALLY
MOVE ACROSS PARTS OF THE GREAT PLAINS, THOUGH THERE IS CONSIDERABLE
SPREAD REGARDING THE TIMING, LOCATION, AND INTENSITY OF THIS TROUGH
INTO THE COMING WEEKEND. THERE WILL BE SOME POTENTIAL FOR STRONGER
MID/UPPER-LEVEL FLOW AND FAVORABLE DEEP-LAYER SHEAR TO IMPINGE UPON
AN EXPANDING RESERVOIR OF MODERATE TO LOCALLY STRONG BUOYANCY ACROSS
THE CENTRAL/SOUTHERN PLAINS INTO THE LOWER/MID MS VALLEY, BUT
DETAILS REGARDING THE SEVERE-THUNDERSTORM THREAT ON ANY PARTICULAR
DAY REMAIN VERY UNCERTAIN AT THIS TIME.
READ MORE
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SPC DAY 1 FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK
SPC DAY 1 FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK
DAY 1 FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1229 AM CDT MON MAY 01 2023
VALID 011200Z - 021200Z
...SYNOPSIS...
FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS ARE EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS SOUTHERN
ARIZONA INTO SOUTHWEST NEW MEXICO. STEADY PRESSURE FALLS OVER THE
PAST 24 HOURS ARE NOTED ACROSS PARTS OF THE GREAT BASIN WHERE
EARLY-MORNING SURFACE OBSERVATIONS DEPICT A BROAD CYCLONE. THE
APPROACH OF AN UPPER SHORTWAVE TROUGH OFF THE CA COAST WILL SUPPORT
BROAD-SCALE ASCENT OVER THE GREAT BASIN, FURTHER DEEPENING THE
SURFACE LOW OVER THE NEXT 12 HOURS. IN RESPONSE, SOUTHERLY LOW-LEVEL
WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE FROM NORTHERN MEXICO INTO THE
SOUTHWEST AND GREAT BASIN. LATEST ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO
SHOW HIGH PROBABILITY OF WIDESPREAD 15-25 MPH SUSTAINED WINDS ACROSS
THIS REGION, AND DEEP BOUNDARY-LAYER MIXING WILL SUPPORT GUSTS
BETWEEN 25-40 MPH - ESPECIALLY OVER WESTERN AZ WHERE MID-LEVEL WINDS
ARE FORECAST TO BE STRONGER. AN ANTECEDENT DRY AIR MASS IS NOTED
ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST, WHICH WILL ALLOW FOR ANOTHER DAY OF 10-20% RH.
ELEVATED TO CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE PROBABLE FOR MUCH
OF THE REGION, BUT THE FIRE WEATHER CONCERN WILL PRIMARILY RESIDE
FROM SOUTHWEST NM TO SOUTHERN AZ WHERE ERCS ARE GENERALLY AT THE
75TH PERCENTILE OR HIGHER AFTER A PERIOD OF UNSEASONABLY WARM
TEMPERATURES AND LITTLE RAINFALL OVER THE PAST 30 DAYS. SUSTAINED
CRITICAL CONDITIONS APPEAR MOST PROBABLE ACROSS PARTS OF SOUTHWEST
AZ, BUT CONFIDENCE IN THE SPATIAL COVERAGE REMAINS TOO LIMITED FOR
ADDITIONAL HIGHLIGHTS.
...MINNESOTA TO NORTHERN MO...
STRONG NORTH/NORTHWESTERLY GRADIENT WINDS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS A
BROAD SWATH OF THE EASTERN PLAINS/MIDWEST THIS AFTERNOON. SUSTAINED
WINDS BETWEEN 15-25 MPH WILL LIKELY COINCIDE WITH AREAS OF 25-35% RH
TO SUPPORT PERIODS OF ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS. LATEST FUEL
GUIDANCE AND DROUGHT INDICES SUGGEST FUELS ARE GENERALLY
UNRECEPTIVE, BUT LOCALIZED FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS ARE POSSIBLE WHERE
FUELS ARE SUFFICIENTLY DRY.
...DRY THUNDERSTORMS...
00 UTC SOUNDINGS FROM BOI, LKN, SLC, AND GJT SAMPLED A VERY DRY AIR
MASS (PWAT VALUES 0.4-0.5 INCHES) WITH COLD TEMPERATURES ALOFT.
MID-LEVEL MOISTURE, WHILE MEAGER, IS ADEQUATE TO SUPPORT HIGH-BASED
CONVECTION BASED ON RECENT LIGHTNING TRENDS IN SOUTHWEST ID. THIS
AIR MASS IS EXPECTED TO MIGRATE NORTHWARD INTO NORTHERN ID/WESTERN
MT AS WELL AS WY TO NORTHWEST CO, AND MAY SUPPORT A FEW DRY
THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON. WHILE THIS POTENTIAL IS NOTED, FUELS
ACROSS THE REGION REMAIN TOO UNRECEPTIVE TO WARRANT A RISK
HIGHLIGHT.
..MOORE.. 05/01/2023
...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV/FIRE FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
READ MORE
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SPC DAY 2 FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK
SPC DAY 2 FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK
DAY 2 FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1253 AM CDT MON MAY 01 2023
VALID 021200Z - 031200Z
...NO CRITICAL AREAS...
...SYNOPSIS...
ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TUESDAY AFTERNOON
ACROSS SOUTHWEST MN INTO PARTS OF IA. NORTH/NORTHWESTERLY GRADIENT
WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO LINGER ACROSS THE REGION INTO TUESDAY, AND THE
PERSISTENT NORTHERLY FLOW WILL USHER IN A DRY AIR MASS FROM THE
CANADIAN PRAIRIES. ENSEMBLE AND DETERMINISTIC GUIDANCE SHOWS A
REASONABLE SIGNAL FOR 15-25% RH ACROSS THIS REGION WITH SUSTAINED
WINDS BETWEEN 15-20 MPH. ALTHOUGH THE AXIS OF STRONGER MID-LEVEL
WINDS WILL SHIFT EAST THROUGH THE DAY, GUSTS UP TO 25-30 MPH WILL BE
POSSIBLE. FINE GRASSES ACROSS THE REGION ARE EXPECTED TO UNDERGO
CURING TODAY (MONDAY) GIVEN THE WARM, DRY, AND WINDY FORECAST, WHICH
SHOULD SUPPORT THE FIRE WEATHER CONCERN ON TUESDAY.
ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST AND GREAT BASIN, ANOTHER DAY OF BREEZY
SOUTHERLY WINDS IS EXPECTED, BUT AN INFLUX OF MOISTURE FROM THE GULF
OF CALIFORNIA SHOULD LIMIT RH REDUCTIONS COMPARED TO TODAY/MONDAY.
CONSEQUENTLY, ONLY LOCALIZED FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS ARE ANTICIPATED,
MAINLY ACROSS SOUTHERN AZ TO SOUTHWEST NM WHERE FUELS ARE DRIEST.
..MOORE.. 05/01/2023
...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV/FIRE FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
READ MORE
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