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LU9DCE > ALERT 01.05.23 18:10z 147 Lines 6162 Bytes #999 (0) @ WW
BID : 9163_LU9DCE
Read: GUEST
Subj: STORM PREDICTION CENTER 01-MAY23
Path: HB9ON<IW0QNL<IZ3LSV<I0OJJ<GB7CIP<VE3KPG<VE3CGR<LU9DCE
Sent: 230501/1600Z 9163@LU9DCE.TOR.BA.ARG.SOAM LinBPQ6.0.23
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PACKET RADIO STATION - BUENOS AIRES (GF05OM)
PHP SCHEDULED NEWSLETTERS (PSN)
COPYRIGHT 2023 - EDUARDO A. CASTILLO
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SPC - NO WATCHES ARE VALID AS OF MON MAY 1 12:34:02 UTC 2023
NO WATCHES ARE VALID AS OF MON MAY 1 12:34:02 UTC 2023.
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SPC - NO MDS ARE IN EFFECT AS OF MON MAY 1 12:34:02 UTC 2023
NO MESOSCALE DISCUSSIONS ARE IN EFFECT AS OF MON MAY 1 12:34:02 UTC 2023.
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SPC MAY 1, 2023 1300 UTC DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
SPC 1300Z DAY 1 OUTLOOK
DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0729 AM CDT MON MAY 01 2023
VALID 011300Z - 021200Z
...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PARTS OF
NORTHWESTERN NEVADA AND EASTERN OREGON...
...SUMMARY...
ISOLATED SEVERE THUNDERSTORM GUSTS MAY AFFECT PARTS OF A CORRIDOR
FROM NORTHWESTERN NEVADA TO EASTERN OREGON, LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO
EVENING.
...SYNOPSIS...
A HIGHLY AMPLIFIED PATTERN HAS DEVELOPED IN MID/UPPER LEVELS, WITH
MEAN TROUGHS OVER THE EASTERN CONUS AND NEAR THE WEST COAST, AND AN
EFFECTIVELY TRANSCONTINENTAL RIDGE FROM CENTRAL MX ACROSS THE U.S.
ROCKIES TO THE WESTERN ARCTIC COAST OF CANADA AND BEYOND. THE LARGE
CYCLONE DRIFTING EASTWARD OVER THE GREAT LAKES, AND ASSOCIATED
SURFACE FRONTAL PASSAGES, WILL KEEP THE AIR MASS TOO DRY AND/OR
STABLE FOR THUNDERSTORMS OVER MOST OF THE CONUS EAST OF THE ROCKIES,
EXCEPT FOR A REGIME OF COLD-CORE LAPSE-RATE STEEPENING ALOFT AND
RESIDUAL LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE IN NORTHERN PARTS OF THE NORTHEAST.
THE WEST COAST MEAN TROUGH IS ANCHORED BY AN ELONGATED CYCLONE,
WHOSE CENTER WAS EVIDENT IN MOISTURE-CHANNEL IMAGERY OVER THE
PACIFIC, ABOUT 125 NM WEST OF UIL. THE 500-MB LOW WILL MOVE
SOUTHWARD TO SOUTH-SOUTHEASTWARD THROUGH THE PERIOD, REACHING A
POSITION OFFSHORE, BUT NEAR THE LATITUDE OF THE CA/OR BORDER BY 00Z,
THEN NEAR SFO BY 12Z TOMORROW. AS THAT OCCURS, A STRONG, BASAL
SHORTWAVE TROUGH -- NOW LOCATED FROM COASTAL NORTHWESTERN CA
SOUTHWARD OVER THE PACIFIC -- WILL PIVOT INLAND OVER CENTRAL/
SOUTHERN CA AROUND 00Z, THEN EJECT NORTHWARD AND WEAKEN CONSIDERABLY
BY 12Z. AS THIS OCCURS, A GRADUAL PROCESS OF LOW-LEVEL CYCLOGENESIS
IS FORECAST NEAR THE SOUTHERN OR/ID BORDER, WITH SLOW-MOVING COLD
FRONT ARCHING CENTRAL NV TO SOUTHEASTERN CA.
...NV-OR...
WIDELY SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS MAY DEVELOP BY MID/LATE AFTERNOON
OVER NORTHWESTERN NV NEAR THE FRONT, WHERE BOTH FRONTAL AND
HEATING-RELATED LIFT ARE INFLUENTIAL. ACTIVITY THEN SHOULD MOVE
NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD TO NORTHWESTWARD, CLOSE TO THE ORIENTATION OF
THE CYCLONICALLY CURVING MEAN-WIND VECTORS, WHILE OFFERING STRONG TO
LOCALLY SEVERE GUSTS. A DEEP, WELL-MIXED LAYER SHOULD DEVELOP IN
THE LOWER-ELEVATION PORTIONS OF THE WARM SECTOR, BENEATH ENOUGH
LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE/THETA-E TO SUPPORT 100-500 J/KG MLCAPE. INTENSE
MID/UPPER-LEVEL SOUTHEASTERLIES WILL CONTRIBUTE TO FAVORABLE DEEP
SHEAR, ESPECIALLY NEAR AND NORTH OF THE SURFACE LOW WHERE LOW-LEVEL
FLOW IS MOST BACKED, HODOGRAPHS ELONGATE CONSIDERABLY, AND 50-60-KT
EFFECTIVE-SHEAR MAGNITUDES MAY BE REALIZED.
THE CONVECTION IS EXPECTED TO BECOME ELEVATED (INFLOW ROOTED ABOVE
SURFACE) AS IT ENCOUNTERS DECREASING INSTABILITY WITH NORTHWESTWARD
EXTENT ACROSS EASTERN/NORTHERN OR THIS EVENING, FROM BOTH DIABATIC
SURFACE COOLING AND LOWER AMBIENT THETA-E. HOWEVER, ISOLATED/
CONDITIONAL POTENTIAL FOR DOWNDRAFTS TO PUNCH STRONG-SEVERE GUSTS
THROUGH A SHALLOW, COOLING LAYER MAY PERSIST IN TIME SOMEWHAT BEYOND
THE LOSS OF SBCAPE, AS LONG AS ACTIVITY REMAINS ORGANIZED IN
FAVORABLE ELEVATED INSTABILITY.
..EDWARDS/MOSIER.. 05/01/2023
READ MORE
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SPC MAY 1, 2023 DAY 4-8 SEVERE WEATHER OUTLOOK
DAY 4-8 OUTLOOK
DAY 4-8 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0358 AM CDT MON MAY 01 2023
VALID 041200Z - 091200Z
...DISCUSSION...
...D4/THURSDAY: SOUTHERN/CENTRAL PLAINS...
A MID/UPPER-LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS FORECAST TO MOVE ACROSS PARTS
OF THE SOUTHERN PLAINS ON THURSDAY. THIS WAVE WILL LIKELY DEAMPLIFY
AS IT CRESTS A SHORTWAVE RIDGE, BUT MODERATE MID/UPPER-LEVEL FLOW IS
EXPECTED TO OVERSPREAD AN INCREASINGLY MOIST AND UNSTABLE AIRMASS
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS DURING THE AFTERNOON. SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT IS EXPECTED ALONG THE DRYLINE, WITH
MODERATE BUOYANCY AND INCREASINGLY FAVORABLE DEEP-LAYER SHEAR
SUPPORTING THE POTENTIAL FOR ORGANIZED CLUSTERS AND A FEW
SUPERCELLS, WITH AN ATTENDANT THREAT OF LARGE HAIL AND LOCALIZED
SEVERE GUSTS. A 15% AREA HAS BEEN ADDED WHERE CONFIDENCE IS
CURRENTLY GREATEST IN ORGANIZED CONVECTION DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON
AND EARLY EVENING, WITH SOME FUTURE ADJUSTMENTS LIKELY BASED ON
DRYLINE POSITION AND NORTHERN EXTENT OF STRONGER DEEP-LAYER
FLOW/SHEAR.
...D5/FRIDAY AND BEYOND...
PREDICTABILITY BEGINS TO WANE AS SOON AS D5/FRIDAY WITH REGARD TO
ORGANIZED SEVERE-THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL. THE MID/UPPER-LEVEL LOW
THAT WILL PERSIST NEAR THE PACIFIC COAST FOR MUCH OF THE WEEK IS
FORECAST TO BEGIN EJECTING NORTHEASTWARD ON THURSDAY, WEAKENING AS
IT DOES SO. THE REMNANT MID/UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH WILL THEN GRADUALLY
MOVE ACROSS PARTS OF THE GREAT PLAINS, THOUGH THERE IS CONSIDERABLE
SPREAD REGARDING THE TIMING, LOCATION, AND INTENSITY OF THIS TROUGH
INTO THE COMING WEEKEND. THERE WILL BE SOME POTENTIAL FOR STRONGER
MID/UPPER-LEVEL FLOW AND FAVORABLE DEEP-LAYER SHEAR TO IMPINGE UPON
AN EXPANDING RESERVOIR OF MODERATE TO LOCALLY STRONG BUOYANCY ACROSS
THE CENTRAL/SOUTHERN PLAINS INTO THE LOWER/MID MS VALLEY, BUT
DETAILS REGARDING THE SEVERE-THUNDERSTORM THREAT ON ANY PARTICULAR
DAY REMAIN VERY UNCERTAIN AT THIS TIME.
READ MORE
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