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LU9DCE > ALERT 02.05.23 13:11z 399 Lines 16718 Bytes #999 (0) @ WW
BID : 9199_LU9DCE
Read: GUEST
Subj: STORM PREDICTION CENTER 02-MAY23
Path: HB9ON<IW8PGT<I3XTY<I0OJJ<GB7CIP<VE3KPG<VA3TOK<LU9DCE
Sent: 230502/1300Z 9199@LU9DCE.TOR.BA.ARG.SOAM LinBPQ6.0.23
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SPC - NO WATCHES ARE VALID AS OF TUE MAY 2 08:39:01 UTC 2023
NO WATCHES ARE VALID AS OF TUE MAY 2 08:39:01 UTC 2023.
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SPC - NO MDS ARE IN EFFECT AS OF TUE MAY 2 08:39:01 UTC 2023
NO MESOSCALE DISCUSSIONS ARE IN EFFECT AS OF TUE MAY 2 08:39:01 UTC 2023.
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SPC MAY 2, 2023 0600 UTC DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
SPC 1200Z DAY 1 OUTLOOK
DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1208 AM CDT TUE MAY 02 2023
VALID 021200Z - 031200Z
...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON
AND EVENING ACROSS PARTS OF EASTERN NEW MEXICO INTO WEST TEXAS...
...SUMMARY...
STRONG THUNDERSTORMS MAY IMPACT PARTS OF EASTERN NEW MEXICO INTO
WESTERN TEXAS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING, ACCOMPANIED BY AT LEAST
SOME RISK FOR SEVERE HAIL AND WIND.
...SYNOPSIS...
SUBSTANTIVE CHANGE TO THE BLOCKED REGIME ACROSS EASTERN NORTH
AMERICA AND THE WESTERN ATLANTIC LIKELY WILL NOT OCCUR UNTIL MID TO
LATE WEEK. HOWEVER, MODELS SUGGEST THAT THE HIGH CENTERED OVER
NEWFOUNDLAND AND LABRADOR MAY BECOME A BIT MORE PROMINENT TODAY
THROUGH TONIGHT, WITH MID/UPPER HEIGHTS BEGINNING TO BUILD AND
ELONGATE ALONG AN EAST-WEST AXIS. AN INITIALLY BROAD AND DEEP
CYCLONE TO ITS SOUTHWEST MAY GRADUALLY BECOME LESS PROMINENT, BUT IT
STILL APPEARS LIKELY TO ENCOMPASS MOST AREAS TO THE EAST OF THE
GREAT PLAINS, WHILE ITS CENTER ONLY SLOWLY REDEVELOPS SOUTHEAST OF
THE LOWER GREAT LAKES REGION.
UPSTREAM, THE CENTER OF ANOTHER DEVELOPING BROAD, DEEP MID-LEVEL
LOW, WHICH IS BECOMING INCREASINGLY CUT OFF FROM THE STRONGER
WESTERLIES, CONTINUES TO DIG ALONG THE NORTHERN CALIFORNIA COAST.
BY 12Z THIS MORNING, IT IS FORECAST TO REACH AREAS NEAR/WEST OF SAN
FRANCISCO BAY, WHERE IT MAY LINGER THROUGH THE DAY, BEFORE PERHAPS
REFORMING A BIT FARTHER OFFSHORE, TO THE WEST AND SOUTHWEST, THROUGH
THE LATTER HALF OF THE PERIOD.
MID-LEVEL RIDGING BETWEEN THE LOWS IS FORECAST TO GENERALLY BE
MAINTAINED THROUGH THE PERIOD ALONG THE ROCKIES. HOWEVER, IT DOES
APPEAR THAT ONE OR TWO WEAK SHORT WAVE PERTURBATIONS WILL PROGRESS
THROUGH THE LARGER-SCALE ANTICYCLONIC FLOW ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
ROCKIES/NORTHERN MEXICAN PLATEAU INTO SOUTHERN GREAT PLAINS
VICINITY. THIS MAY BE ACCOMPANIED BY MOISTENING OF SUBTROPICAL
EASTERN PACIFIC ORIGINS, AS MODEST BOUNDARY-LAYER MOISTENING ALSO
TAKES PLACE, ON A SOUTHEASTERLY NEAR-SURFACE RETURN FLOW OF GULF OF
MEXICO MOISTURE THROUGH THE LOWER RIO GRANDE VALLEY AND TEXAS SOUTH
PLAINS, INTO SURFACE TROUGHING TO THE LEE OF THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES.
...EASTERN NEW MEXICO INTO WEST TEXAS...
DESPITE THE MOISTENING ALOFT DURING THE DAY, AND PERHAPS INCREASING
SATURATION OF PROFILES FROM UPPER INTO MID-LEVELS, INITIALLY RATHER
STEEP LOWER/MID-TROPOSPHERIC LAPSE RATES ARE FORECAST TO GENERALLY
BE MAINTAINED ACROSS THE REGION INTO MID OR LATE AFTERNOON. WITH
BOUNDARY HEATING, MIXING AND THE MODEST LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE RETURN
(SUPPORTIVE OF MID/UPPER 50S SURFACE DEW POINTS BY MID AFTERNOON),
IT APPEARS THAT THIS MAY CONTRIBUTE TO MIXED-LAYER CAPE IN EXCESS OF
1000 J/KG, ALONG AND EAST OF A DEVELOPING DRYLINE NEAR OR EAST OF
THE NEW MEXICO/TEXAS STATE BORDER.
AIDED BY FORCING FOR ASCENT ACCOMPANYING AN APPROACHING MID-LEVEL
PERTURBATION, BENEATH DIFLUENT HIGH-LEVEL FLOW, IT APPEARS THAT
SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS THUNDERSTORMS MAY INITIATE NEAR AND WEST OF
THE DRYLINE. SOME OF THESE MAY POSE A RISK FOR MARGINALLY SEVERE
HAIL AND WIND GUSTS, WITH STRONGEST STORMS INITIALLY TENDING TO
FOCUS ALONG THE DRYLINE, WHERE VEERING OF GENERALLY WEAK WIND FIELDS
WITH HEIGHT MAY CONTRIBUTE TO AT LEAST MODEST DEEP-LAYER SHEAR.
IT IS POSSIBLE THAT A ZONE OF STRONGER LOW-LEVEL WARM ADVECTION,
EXTENDING FROM WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE TEXAS PANHANDLE INTO THE
SOUTH PLAINS, MAY EVENTUALLY BECOME A FOCUS FOR A CONSOLIDATING AND
ORGANIZING CLUSTER OF STORMS, WITH A DEVELOPING COLD POOL
ACCOMPANIED BY STRONG SURFACE GUSTS FOR A PERIOD THIS EVENING.
..KERR/MOORE.. 05/02/2023
READ MORE
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SPC MAY 2, 2023 0600 UTC DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
SPC 0600Z DAY 2 OUTLOOK
DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1234 AM CDT TUE MAY 02 2023
VALID 031200Z - 041200Z
...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...
...SUMMARY...
THE SEVERE-THUNDERSTORM THREAT IS EXPECTED TO BE LOW ON WEDNESDAY,
THOUGH A FEW STRONG STORMS CANNOT BE RULED OUT ACROSS THE CENTRAL
AND SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS AND ALSO ACROSS PARTS OF THE NORTHWEST.
...SYNOPSIS...
THE DEEP UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE EAST IS EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY
MOVE EASTWARD THROUGH THE DAY ON WEDNESDAY, WHILE THE
MID/UPPER-LEVEL CYCLONE OFF OF THE PACIFIC COAST WILL START TO MOVE
EASTWARD, POTENTIALLY MOVING INTO SOUTHERN CA BY THURSDAY MORNING. A
SURFACE RIDGE INITIALLY OVER THE CENTRAL CONUS IS FORECAST TO SHIFT
EASTWARD, WHICH WILL ALLOW FOR INCREASING SOUTHERLY LOW-LEVEL FLOW
AND SOME MOISTURE TRANSPORT INTO PARTS OF THE SOUTHERN/CENTRAL
PLAINS.
...CENTRAL/SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS...
WEAK TO MODERATE BUOYANCY WILL AGAIN DEVELOP OVER THE SOUTHERN HIGH
PLAINS ON WEDNESDAY, WITH SOME NORTHWARD EXPANSION OF FAVORABLE
DESTABILIZATION INTO THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS, AS LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE
GRADUALLY INCREASES. THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP DURING
THE AFTERNOON ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS, AND A FEW STRONG
STORMS ARE POSSIBLE, THOUGH GENERALLY WEAK DEEP-LAYER SHEAR AND THE
PRESENCE OF A MID/UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE MAY TEND TO LIMIT STORM
COVERAGE/INTENSITY. STRONGER MIDLEVEL FLOW AND DEEP-LAYER SHEAR WILL
MOVE INTO WEST TX TUESDAY NIGHT IN ADVANCE OF A SUBTROPICAL
SHORTWAVE TROUGH, BUT IT STILL APPEARS THAT THIS WILL ARRIVE TOO
LATE TO AID IN THE ORGANIZATION OF PRIMARILY DIURNAL CONVECTION.
FARTHER NORTH INTO THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS, SOMEWHAT LESS INFLUENCE
OF MID/UPPER-LEVEL RIDGING IS EXPECTED, AND WEST-NORTHWESTERLY
MIDLEVEL FLOW MAY RESULT IN SLIGHTLY STRONGER DEEP-LAYER SHEAR
COMPARED TO AREAS FARTHER SOUTH. HOWEVER, SOME UNCERTAINTY REMAINS
REGARDING THE MAGNITUDE OF MOISTURE RETURN AND DESTABILIZATION WITH
NORTHWARD EXTENT. IF SUFFICIENT DESTABILIZATION CAN OCCUR INTO
WESTERN KS, THEN SEVERE PROBABILITIES MAY EVENTUALLY BE NEEDED.
...OR/WA...
MODEST HEATING/DESTABILIZATION WILL AGAIN SUPPORT THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPMENT ACROSS PARTS OF THE INTERIOR NORTHWEST ON WEDNESDAY.
GUIDANCE STILL SUGGESTS THAT A MIDLEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH EMBEDDED
WITHIN THE BROADER CYCLONIC FLOW MAY BE FAVORABLY TIMED FOR STORM
DEVELOPMENT DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON/EVENING ACROSS
WESTERN/NORTHERN OR INTO SOUTHERN WA, AND A FEW STRONG STORMS
CAPABLE OF AT LEAST SMALL HAIL AND GUSTY WINDS WILL BE POSSIBLE.
..DEAN.. 05/02/2023
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SPC MAY 2, 2023 0730 UTC DAY 3 SEVERE THUNDERSTORM OUTLOOK
SPC 0730Z DAY 3 OUTLOOK
DAY 3 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0230 AM CDT TUE MAY 02 2023
VALID 041200Z - 051200Z
...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF
THE SOUTHERN PLAINS...
...SUMMARY...
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAPABLE OF LARGE HAIL, STRONG/DAMAGING WIND
GUSTS, AND A COUPLE OF TORNADOES ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS PARTS OF THE
SOUTHERN GREAT PLAINS THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
...SYNOPSIS...
A MID/UPPER-LEVEL LOW OVER SOUTHERN CA IS FORECAST TO EJECT
NORTHEASTWARD TOWARD THE GREAT BASIN ON THURSDAY AS A NEGATIVELY
TILTED TROUGH. AHEAD OF THIS FEATURE, A MIDLEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH
AND ATTENDANT SPEED MAXIMUM (WHICH EMANATED OUT OF THE SUBTROPICAL
PACIFIC) IS FORECAST TO MOVE FROM FAR WEST TX TOWARD THE
SOUTHERN/CENTRAL GREAT PLAINS THROUGH THE DAY. A SURFACE LOW IS
FORECAST TO GRADUALLY DEEPEN ACROSS SOUTHEAST CO, AS A DRYLINE
BECOMES BETTER DEFINED DURING THE AFTERNOON FROM THE EASTERN TX
PANHANDLE/WESTERN OK INTO NORTHWEST TX AND THE EDWARDS PLATEAU.
...SOUTHERN/CENTRAL PLAINS...
WIDESPREAD MID/HIGH CLOUDINESS WILL LIKELY SPREAD ACROSS MUCH OF THE
CENTRAL/SOUTHERN PLAINS IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE SUBTROPICAL
SHORTWAVE TROUGH, BUT SOME FILTERED HEATING OF AN INCREASINGLY MOIST
BOUNDARY LAYER WILL RESULT IN MODERATE DESTABILIZATION EAST OF THE
DRYLINE ACROSS PARTS OF TX/OK, AND POTENTIALLY AS FAR NORTH AS
SOUTHERN/CENTRAL KS. MEANWHILE, MODERATE MID/UPPER-LEVEL FLOW WILL
SUPPORT EFFECTIVE SHEAR OF 40-50 KT ACROSS PARTS OF TX/OK, WITH
SOMEWHAT WEAKER DEEP-LAYER FLOW/SHEAR EXPECTED FARTHER NORTH INTO
THE CENTRAL PLAINS. THESE FACTORS WILL RESULT IN A CONDITIONAL RISK
OF ORGANIZED CONVECTION ALONG/EAST OF THE DRYLINE.
SOME UNCERTAINTIES REMAIN REGARDING THE SEVERE POTENTIAL ASSOCIATED
WITH THIS SYSTEM. WHILE AT LEAST ISOLATED DEVELOPMENT IS EXPECTED
ALONG THE DRYLINE, POTENTIALLY LIMITED HEATING ACROSS THE WARM
SECTOR COULD HAMPER STORM COVERAGE AND LONGEVITY TO SOME EXTENT.
ALSO, THE SUBTROPICAL SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL LIKELY BE ACCOMPANIED BY
SOMEWHAT WEAKER MIDLEVEL LAPSE RATES THAN WHAT IS TYPICALLY OBSERVED
FOR GREAT PLAINS SEVERE EVENTS.
HOWEVER, GIVEN THE RELATIVELY FAVORABLE BUOYANCY AND DEEP-LAYER
SHEAR, AND POTENTIALLY FAVORABLE TIMING OF THE APPROACHING SHORTWAVE
TROUGH, DEVELOPMENT OF A FEW SUPERCELLS AND/OR ORGANIZED CLUSTERS IS
EXPECTED DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING, ACCOMPANIED BY A RISK OF
LARGE HAIL AND AT LEAST LOCALIZED SEVERE/DAMAGING GUSTS. ALSO, A
SOUTHERLY LOW-LEVEL JET IS FORECAST TO STRENGTHEN ACROSS OK AND
SOUTHERN KS BY EARLY EVENING, WHICH WOULD ENLARGE LOW-LEVEL
HODOGRAPHS AND SUPPORT THE THREAT FOR A COUPLE TORNADOES ACROSS THE
NORTHERN PORTION OF THE SLIGHT RISK AREA.
FURTHER STRENGTHENING OF THE LOW-LEVEL JET MAY SUPPORT MCS
DEVELOPMENT THURSDAY NIGHT INTO NORTHEAST OK/SOUTHEAST KS, WITH SOME
LINGERING SEVERE THREAT POSSIBLE INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.
..DEAN.. 05/02/2023
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SPC MAY 2, 2023 DAY 4-8 SEVERE WEATHER OUTLOOK
DAY 4-8 OUTLOOK
DAY 4-8 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0336 AM CDT TUE MAY 02 2023
VALID 051200Z - 101200Z
...DISCUSSION...
THE REMNANT OF A PERSISTENT MID/UPPER-LEVEL LOW IS FORECAST TO MOVE
TOWARD THE NORTHERN ROCKIES ON FRIDAY, BUT A LONGWAVE TROUGH IS
EXPECTED TO REMAIN IN PLACE OVER MUCH OF THE WESTERN CONUS THROUGH
THIS WEEKEND, AND POTENTIALLY INTO AT LEAST THE FIRST PART OF NEXT
WEEK. THE MEAN TROUGH POSITION IS GENERALLY FORECAST TO GRADUALLY
SHIFT EASTWARD WITH TIME, BUT GUIDANCE VARIES CONSIDERABLY REGARDING
THE EXTENT TO WHICH STRONGER DEEP-LAYER FLOW/SHEAR WILL IMPINGE ON A
RESERVOIR OF MODERATE TO POTENTIALLY STRONG BUOYANCY ACROSS PARTS OF
THE GREAT PLAINS INTO THE MS VALLEY. THIS RESULTS IN LOW
PREDICTABILITY REGARDING THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM THREAT ON ANY
PARTICULAR DAY, BUT AN INCREASINGLY ACTIVE PATTERN APPEARS POSSIBLE
DURING THE EXTENDED RANGE.
ON D4/FRIDAY, MODERATE TO STRONG INSTABILITY MAY DEVELOP ALONG/SOUTH
OF A WEAK SURFACE BOUNDARY ACROSS CENTRAL/EAST TX. WHILE DEEP-LAYER
FLOW/SHEAR IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN MARGINAL AT BEST, MODESTLY
ORGANIZED STORMS CAPABLE OF LARGE HAIL WILL BE POSSIBLE. SOME SEVERE
THREAT COULD ALSO EVOLVE WITHIN A NORTHWESTERLY FLOW REGIME FROM AR
INTO THE LOWER MS VALLEY, DEPENDING IN PART ON THE EVOLUTION OF
POTENTIAL MCS DEVELOPMENT LATE DURING THE D3/THURSDAY PERIOD.
FOR D5/SATURDAY AND BEYOND, PERIODIC EPISODES OF STRONG TO
POTENTIALLY SEVERE STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE
CENTRAL/SOUTHERN PLAINS AND POTENTIALLY INTO THE MIDWEST AND
LOWER/MID MS VALLEY. THE MAGNITUDE AND COVERAGE ANY SUCH SEVERE
EPISODES WILL DEPEND ON THE TRACK AND INTENSITY OF SHORTWAVES
EMANATING OUT OF THE LONGWAVE TROUGH ACROSS THE WEST, WHICH REMAIN
QUITE UNCERTAIN AT THIS TIME.
READ MORE
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SPC DAY 1 FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK
SPC DAY 1 FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK
DAY 1 FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0141 AM CDT TUE MAY 02 2023
VALID 021200Z - 031200Z
...SYNOPSIS...
...MINNESOTA TO IOWA...
ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS ARE EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS
PARTS OF MINNESOTA INTO NORTHERN IOWA. EARLY-MORNING SATELLITE AND
SURFACE OBSERVATIONS CONTINUE TO SHOW A STACKED UPPER AND SURFACE
LOW OVER THE LOWER GREAT LAKES REGION. THIS SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE TO
GRADUALLY SHIFT EAST TODAY, BUT WILL MAINTAIN BREEZY NORTHERLY
GRADIENT WINDS ACROSS THE UPPER MS VALLEY. PREVIOUS 24-HOUR
OBSERVATIONS ACROSS MN SHOW A SLIGHT DRYING TREND WITH DEWPOINTS
FALLING INTO THE LOW TO MID 20S. RECENT MODEL SOLUTIONS HAVE HAD A
SLIGHT MOIST-BIAS DURING THIS PERIOD, AND CONTINUE THE SLOW DRYING
TREND INTO THIS AFTERNOON. CONSEQUENTLY, AFTERNOON RH VALUES WILL
LIKELY FALL BELOW YESTERDAY'S OBSERVED RH MINIMUMS. GRADIENT WINDS
BETWEEN 15-25 MPH ARE EXPECTED WITH FREQUENT GUSTS UP TO 35 MPH.
LITTLE RAINFALL OVER THE PAST WEEK, COUPLED WITH CURING FROM HOT,
DRY, WINDY CONDITIONS YESTERDAY, HAS ALLOWED ERCS TO APPROACH THE
90TH PERCENTILE FOR SOME LOCATIONS. REFINEMENTS TO THE RISK AREA
HAVE BEEN MADE ACROSS IA TO REFLECT WHERE LOCAL FUEL REPORTS
INDICATE SPRING GREEN UP HAS SUFFICIENTLY MITIGATED FUEL
RECEPTIVENESS.
...SOUTHEAST NM INTO SOUTHWEST TX...
00 UTC SOUNDINGS FROM MAF AND EPZ SHOW STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES
WITH DRY, WELL-MIXED BOUNDARY LAYERS AND PWAT VALUES NEAR 0.5 INCH.
THIS THERMODYNAMIC PROFILE IS EXPECTED TO LARGELY REMAIN IN PLACE
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AS ASCENT ASSOCIATED WITH AN SUB-TROPICAL
SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVERSPREADS THE REGION. A FEW ISOLATED DRY
THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE OVER THE REGION WHERE ERC VALUES ARE IN
EXCESS OF THE 80TH PERCENTILE. ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED
IN THE PERIPHERY OF THE RISK AREA, BUT LATEST ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE
SUGGESTS THE PROBABILITY OF WETTING RAINFALL IS HIGHER.
...GEORGIA INTO SOUTH CAROLINA...
WESTERLY GRADIENT WINDS ON THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE GREAT LAKES
LOW ARE FORECAST TO BE SUSTAINED AROUND 15 MPH (GUSTING TO 20-30
MPH) FROM GA EASTWARD TO THE CAROLINA COAST. A DRY CONTINENTAL AIR
MASS MOVING INTO THE REGION, COUPLED WITH DIURNAL WARMING, WILL
SUPPORT RH REDUCTIONS INTO THE 20-30% RANGE. ELEVATED TO LOCALLY
CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS APPEAR PROBABLE, BUT WIDESPREAD
RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 0.25-0.5 INCH OVER THE PAST 48-72 HOURS CAST
UNCERTAINTY ONTO THE COVERAGE OF RECEPTIVE FUELS. AS SUCH, THE FIRE
CONCERN WILL PRIMARILY BE FOCUSED ON LOCAL AREAS WHERE DEAD GRASSES
AND OTHER FINE FUELS HAVE SUFFICIENTLY DRIED OVER THE PAST 24-48
HOURS.
..MOORE.. 05/02/2023
...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV/FIRE FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
READ MORE
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SPC DAY 2 FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK
SPC DAY 2 FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK
DAY 2 FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0216 AM CDT TUE MAY 02 2023
VALID 031200Z - 041200Z
...SYNOPSIS...
FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS WILL PRIMARILY BE FOCUSED ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST
ON WEDNESDAY. A SUB-TROPICAL SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS FORECAST TO MIGRATE
OUT OF NORTHERN MEXICO INTO THE SOUTHWEST THROUGH THE DAY. THIS WILL
LEAD TO BROAD, BUT MODEST, PRESSURE FALLS ACROSS THE FOUR CORNERS
AND SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS. IN RESPONSE, SOUTHERLY WINDS ARE FORECAST
TO INCREASE TO 15-20 MPH FROM THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER INTO THE FOUR
CORNERS AND EASTERN GREAT BASIN. DOWNSLOPE WARMING AND DRYING WILL
SUPPORT AREAS OF 15-20% RH COINCIDENT WITH BREEZY WINDS. ELEVATED
FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION, BUT
THE FIRE CONCERN WILL BE FOCUSED PRIMARILY ACROSS SOUTHEAST AZ INTO
SOUTHWEST AND CENTRAL NM WHERE ERCS HAVE REACHED THE 80-90TH
PERCENTILE AMID A PROLONGED (30-DAY) PERIOD OF NEGLIGIBLE RAINFALL.
...GEORGIA INTO SOUTH CAROLINA...
ANOTHER DAY OF DRY AND BREEZY WEATHER IS EXPECTED AS A GREAT LAKES
LOW CONTINUES TO MEANDER NORTHEAST. GRADIENT WINDS WILL LIKELY BE
WEAKER COMPARED TO TODAY (TUESDAY), BUT MOST SOLUTIONS HINT AT WINDS
NEAR 15 MPH DURING PEAK HEATING WHEN RH VALUES WILL LIKELY BE AROUND
25-30%. ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE, BUT THE
OVERALL FIRE THREAT WILL BE CONDITIONAL ON FUEL STATUS BY WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON. WIDESPREAD DRYING/CURING OF FINE FUELS IS EXPECTED TODAY,
AND MAY BE SUFFICIENT FOR HIGHLIGHTS IN SUBSEQUENT UPDATES.
..MOORE.. 05/02/2023
...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV/FIRE FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
READ MORE
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