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LU9DCE > ALERT 04.05.23 12:16z 391 Lines 16357 Bytes #999 (0) @ WW
BID : 9297_LU9DCE
Read: GUEST
Subj: STORM PREDICTION CENTER 04-MAY23
Path: HB9ON<IW0QNL<IZ3LSV<I0OJJ<EA2RCF<LU9DCE
Sent: 230504/1100Z 9297@LU9DCE.TOR.BA.ARG.SOAM LinBPQ6.0.23
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PHP SCHEDULED NEWSLETTERS (PSN)
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SPC - NO WATCHES ARE VALID AS OF THU MAY 4 08:49:01 UTC 2023
NO WATCHES ARE VALID AS OF THU MAY 4 08:49:01 UTC 2023.
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SPC - NO MDS ARE IN EFFECT AS OF THU MAY 4 08:49:01 UTC 2023
NO MESOSCALE DISCUSSIONS ARE IN EFFECT AS OF THU MAY 4 08:49:01 UTC 2023.
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SPC MAY 4, 2023 0600 UTC DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
SPC 1200Z DAY 1 OUTLOOK
DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK CORR 2
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0315 AM CDT THU MAY 04 2023
VALID 041200Z - 051200Z
...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS CENTRAL
TEXAS TO OKLAHOMA AND FAR SOUTHERN KANSAS...
CORRECTED FOR THUNDER LINE DIRECTION
...SUMMARY...
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAPABLE OF LARGE HAIL, STRONG/DAMAGING WIND
GUSTS, AND A COUPLE OF TORNADOES ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS PARTS OF THE
SOUTHERN GREAT PLAINS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. MORE ISOLATED
STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS CAPABLE OF SEVERE WIND AND LARGE HAIL ARE
POSSIBLE ACROSS PARTS OF THE CENTRAL PLAINS AND THE PACIFIC
NORTHWEST.
...SYNOPSIS...
OMEGA BLOCKING OVER THE SOUTHERN/CENTRAL PLAINS IS EXPECTED TO BREAK
DOWN OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS AS A SUB-TROPICAL SHORTWAVE TROUGH,
NOTED OVER BAJA CALIFORNIA AND NORTHWEST MEXICO IN LATEST
WATER-VAPOR IMAGERY, SHIFTS NORTHEAST. THIS WILL RESULT IN MODEST
LEE CYCLOGENESIS OVER THE TX PANHANDLE AND NORTHWEST OK THIS
AFTERNOON, WHICH WILL HELP NORTHWARD MOISTURE ADVECTION THROUGH THE
DAY, AND THE ESTABLISHMENT OF A WARM SECTOR AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING
ASCENT. A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH/STATIONARY FRONT ACROSS THE CENTRAL
PLAINS WILL LIKELY FOCUS THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT THIS AFTERNOON
WITHIN AN OTHERWISE WEAKLY FORCED ENVIRONMENT. ACROSS THE PACIFIC
NORTHWEST, BROAD ASCENT OVER EASTERN WA AND NORTHERN ID MAY SUPPORT
A FEW ISOLATED STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS.
...SOUTHERN PLAINS...
MID 50S TO UPPER 60S DEWPOINTS, CURRENTLY SPREAD ACROSS CENTRAL TO
SOUTHERN TX, ARE EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY ADVECT NORTH INTO CENTRAL OK
AS THE LEE CYCLONE DEEPENS THROUGH THE DAY. BROAD ASCENT AHEAD OF
THE APPROACHING SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS NOTED IN RECENT SATELLITE
IMAGERY, AND IS EXPECTED TO MAINTAIN A SWATH OF HIGH-LEVEL CLOUD
COVER OVER THE REGION. THIS WILL MODULATE DIURNAL WARMING OVER MUCH
OF TX/OK/KS TO SOME DEGREE, BUT TEMPERATURES WARMING INTO THE UPPER
70S SHOULD BE ADEQUATE TO SUPPORT A CORRIDOR OF AROUND 1000 J/KG
MLCAPE ACROSS CENTRAL OK WITH INCREASING BUOYANCY INTO CENTRAL TX.
40-50 KNOT MID-LEVEL FLOW ASSOCIATED WITH THE WAVE SHOULD OVERSPREAD
MUCH OF THE REGION, AND SOMEWHAT WEAK LOW-LEVEL FLOW WILL RESULT IN
ELONGATED, NEARLY STRAIGHT, HODOGRAPHS ACROSS THE WARM SECTOR.
WHILE THE ENVIRONMENT APPEARS ADEQUATE TO SUPPORT ORGANIZED
CONVECTION, STORM COVERAGE AND MODE REMAIN UNCERTAIN, ESPECIALLY
ACROSS NORTH TX INTO OK AND FAR SOUTHERN KS. OVERNIGHT CONVECTION
ONGOING ACROSS THE TX PANHANDLE MAY PERSIST INTO CENTRAL OK/NORTH TX
BY THE START OF THE PERIOD. THIS COULD REINFORCE THE EXISTING
DIFFUSE WARM FRONTAL ZONE ACROSS NORTH TX, WHICH COULD THEN BE A
FOCUS FOR CONVECTIVE INITIATION THIS AFTERNOON. SEVERAL CAMS ALSO
DEPICT SUFFICIENT ISENTROPIC ASCENT AHEAD OF THE WAVE FOR BROAD RAIN
SHOWERS/ISOLATED ELEVATED THUNDERSTORMS DURING THE MORNING HOURS,
WHICH MAY HINDER DESTABILIZATION. PREDICTABILITY OF THESE SCENARIOS
IS LOW GIVEN SPREAD IN HIGH-RES MODEL SOLUTIONS. THUNDERSTORM
INITIATION APPEARS MOST PROBABLE ALONG A SHARPENING DRYLINE ACROSS
WESTERN OK TO CENTRAL TX WHERE INITIAL STORM MODES SHOULD BE
DISCRETE TO SEMI-DISCRETE SUPERCELLS GIVEN OFF-BOUNDARY STORM
MOTIONS/DEEP-LAYER SHEAR VECTORS. WHILE CONFIDENCE IN EXACT
EVOLUTION OF THE WARM SECTOR IS SOMEWHAT LOW ACROSS OK/KS, BACKED
LOW-LEVEL WINDS IN THE VICINITY OF THE SURFACE CYCLONE MAY SUPPORT
ADEQUATE LOW-LEVEL SHEAR FOR A COUPLE OF TORNADOES IF DISCRETE
SUPERCELLS CAN BE ACHIEVED.
...CENTRAL PLAINS...
ALTHOUGH MOISTURE ADVECTION INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS IS EXPECTED TO
BE MODEST, ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE SHOWS A REASONABLY STRONG SIGNAL FOR
DEWPOINTS IN THE LOW 50S TO REACH NE BY LATE AFTERNOON. THIS,
COUPLED WITH 8 C/KM MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES, SHOULD BE ADEQUATE FOR A
SWATH OF MLCAPE VALUES APPROACHING 1000 J/KG. THE CENTRAL PLAINS
WILL BE WELL DISPLACED FROM STRONGER SYNOPTIC ASCENT TO THE SOUTH,
BUT FOCUSED LIFT ALONG A SURFACE TROUGH/STATIONARY FRONT SHOULD
SUPPORT THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT BY LATE AFTERNOON. EFFECTIVE BULK
SHEAR VALUES NEAR 25-30 KNOTS WILL ALLOW FOR ORGANIZED CONVECTION,
BUT MEAN-WIND VECTORS AND STORM MOTIONS ROUGHLY ALONG THE INITIATING
BOUNDARY MAY FAVOR UPSCALE GROWTH, LIMITING THE COVERAGE/DURATION OF
THE SEVERE THREAT.
...PACIFIC NORTHWEST...
RECENT SURFACE OBSERVATIONS ARE SAMPLING A POCKET OF DEWPOINTS IN
THE UPPER 40S TO LOW 50S ACROSS EASTERN WA INTO ADJACENT AREAS OF
OR/ID. THIS MOISTURE WILL SUPPORT A REGIONAL POCKET OF 500-1000 J/KG
MLCAPE THIS AFTERNOON, WHICH MAY ALLOW FOR A FEW MORE INTENSE CELLS
AS LIFT AHEAD OF A BROAD WEST COAST LOW OVERSPREADS THE REGION.
WHILE THE SPATIAL COVERAGE OF THIS THREAT IS EXPECTED TO BE LIMITED,
ADEQUATE DEEP-LAYER SHEAR MAY ALLOW FOR ROBUST CONVECTION CAPABLE OF
POSING A HAIL/WIND RISK. THIS SCENARIO APPEARS TO BE CAPTURED WELL
BY LATEST CAM ENSEMBLES, WHICH SHOW A SOMEWHAT STRONGER UH SIGNAL
ACROSS THE REGION COMPARED TO PREVIOUS DAYS.
..MOORE/BROYLES.. 05/04/2023
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SPC MAY 4, 2023 0600 UTC DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
SPC 0600Z DAY 2 OUTLOOK
DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1259 AM CDT THU MAY 04 2023
VALID 051200Z - 061200Z
...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF
CENTRAL TX...
...SUMMARY...
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS PARTS OF CENTRAL TEXAS
FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING, WITH LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS
EXPECTED TO BE THE PRIMARY THREATS. ISOLATED STRONG STORMS ARE ALSO
POSSIBLE ACROSS THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY, AND ACROSS PARTS OF
NEBRASKA.
...TX...
MODERATE TO STRONG BUOYANCY (MLCAPE POTENTIALLY INCREASING ABOVE
3000 J/KG) IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ACROSS MUCH OF CENTRAL/EAST TX ON
FRIDAY AFTERNOON, ALONG/EAST OF A DRYLINE. WHILE THIS REGION WILL BE
ON THE EASTERN PERIPHERY OF THE UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH ACROSS THE
WESTERN CONUS, MOST GUIDANCE DEPICTS ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED
STORM DEVELOPMENT DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON ACROSS PARTS OF CENTRAL
TX, POSSIBLY RELATED TO A LOW AMPLITUDE SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING OUT
OF MEXICO WITHIN THE BROADER SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT. THIS SCENARIO
APPEARS PLAUSIBLE, WITH STRONG HEATING/MIXING HELPING TO ERODE THE
CAPPING INVERSION THROUGH THE DAY. EFFECTIVE SHEAR OF 30-35 KT WILL
BE ONLY MARGINALLY FAVORABLE FOR ORGANIZED STORMS, BUT A SUPERCELL
OR TWO IS POSSIBLE GIVEN THE MAGNITUDE OF THE INSTABILITY. HAIL
(POSSIBLY VERY LARGE) WOULD BE THE PRIMARY INITIAL THREAT, THOUGH
WITH SLOW STORM MOTION AND RELATIVELY WEAK LOW-LEVEL FLOW,
OUTFLOW-DRIVEN SEVERE GUSTS WILL ALSO BECOME POSSIBLE. THERE IS SOME
POTENTIAL FOR ONE OR TWO OUTFLOW-DRIVEN CLUSTERS TO MOVE EASTWARD
DURING THE EVENING, THOUGH A GENERAL WEAKENING TREND IS EXPECTED
FRIDAY NIGHT DUE TO INCREASING MLCINH.
...NE...
MODEST LOW-LEVEL MOISTENING TO THE NORTH/NORTHEAST OF A SURFACE LOW
ACROSS THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS WILL RESULT IN WEAK TO LOCALLY
MODERATE DESTABILIZATION ACROSS MUCH OF NE DURING THE
AFTERNOON/EVENING. A SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING NORTHEASTWARD FROM THE
SOUTHERN ROCKIES WILL HELP TO INITIATE CONVECTION, WITH SOME UPSCALE
GROWTH POSSIBLE INTO THE EVENING AS A SOUTHERLY LOW-LEVEL JET
STRENGTHENS ACROSS THE REGION. ISOLATED SEVERE HAIL AND WIND WILL BE
POSSIBLE WITH THE STRONGEST STORMS.
...LOWER MS VALLEY...
UNCERTAINTY REMAINS RELATIVELY HIGH REGARDING THE CONVECTIVE
EVOLUTION ON FRIDAY ACROSS THE LOWER MS VALLEY, WITH A REMNANT MCS
POSSIBLY MOVING ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE AREA IN THE MORNING.
LOW-LEVEL MOISTENING FROM THE WEST WILL LEAD TO SOME DESTABILIZATION
BY THE AFTERNOON/EVENING, AND STORMS MAY DEVELOP NEAR THE
MOISTURE/INSTABILITY GRADIENT WITHIN A LOW-LEVEL WARM ADVECTION
REGIME. MODEST WEST-NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL SUPPORT SUFFICIENT
EFFECTIVE SHEAR FOR SOME STORM ORGANIZATION, AND ISOLATED INSTANCES
OF HAIL AND/OR DAMAGING WIND WILL BE POSSIBLE.
..DEAN.. 05/04/2023
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SPC MAY 4, 2023 0730 UTC DAY 3 SEVERE THUNDERSTORM OUTLOOK
SPC 0730Z DAY 3 OUTLOOK
DAY 3 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0228 AM CDT THU MAY 04 2023
VALID 061200Z - 071200Z
...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PARTS OF
NORTHERN/CENTRAL MO INTO CENTRAL/SOUTHERN IA AND WEST-CENTRAL
IL...AND ALSO FROM CENTRAL TX INTO FAR SOUTHERN OK...
...SUMMARY...
ISOLATED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS PARTS OF THE
MIDWEST AND SOUTHERN PLAINS ON SATURDAY.
...LOWER MO VALLEY INTO THE MID MS VALLEY...
A WARM FRONT IS FORECAST TO MOVE NORTHWARD INTO PARTS OF THE LOWER
MO VALLEY AND MID MS VALLEY ON SATURDAY, AS A SERIES OF
MID/UPPER-LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGHS MOVE THROUGH THE CENTRAL/NORTHERN
PLAINS. WARM TEMPERATURES AND INCREASING LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE BENEATH
STEEP MIDLEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL SUPPORT MODERATE TO STRONG BUOYANCY
(MLCAPE OF 1500-3000 J/KG) NEAR/SOUTH OF THE WARM FRONT DURING THE
AFTERNOON/EVENING, WITH MODERATE ELEVATED BUOYANCY EXPECTED NORTH OF
THE FRONT. CAPPING MAY PROHIBIT DIURNAL STORM INITIATION ACROSS THE
WARM SECTOR, BUT SURFACE-BASED DEVELOPMENT CANNOT BE RULED OUT NEAR
THE INTERSECTION OF THE WARM FRONT AND A SURFACE TROUGH/DRYLINE
ACROSS NORTHWEST MO INTO FAR SOUTHWEST IA. SHOULD THIS OCCUR,
SUFFICIENT DEEP-LAYER SHEAR WOULD SUPPORT A SUPERCELL OR TWO WITH
ALL SEVERE HAZARDS POSSIBLE. OTHERWISE, SOMEWHAT ELEVATED CONVECTION
MAY INCREASE SATURDAY NIGHT ACROSS LARGER PORTION OF SOUTHERN IA
INTO MO, WITHIN A LOW-LEVEL WARM ADVECTION REGIME. ELEVATED BUOYANCY
MAY BE SUFFICIENT TO SUPPORT ISOLATED HAIL AND LOCALIZED
STRONG/DAMAGING GUSTS WITH THE STRONGEST STORMS.
...TX INTO FAR SOUTHERN OK...
STRONG HEATING OF A MOIST LOW-LEVEL AIRMASS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
PLAINS WILL AGAIN RESULT IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF STRONG TO LOCALLY
EXTREME BUOYANCY (MLCAPE OF 2000-4000 J/KG) BY LATE AFTERNOON.
LARGE-SCALE FORCING APPEARS NEBULOUS AT THIS TIME, BUT STRONG
HEATING/MIXING NEAR THE DRYLINE WILL REMOVE MLCINH AND MAY SUPPORT
ISOLATED STORM DEVELOPMENT. DEEP-LAYER FLOW/SHEAR MAY BE SLIGHTLY
WEAKER THAN PREVIOUS DAYS, BUT EFFECTIVE SHEAR GENERALLY IN THE
25-35 KT WOULD SUPPORT THE POTENTIAL FOR ORGANIZED MULTICELLS AND
PERHAPS A SUPERCELL OR TWO, GIVEN THE STRONG INSTABILITY. A THREAT
FOR HAIL AND SEVERE GUSTS WOULD ACCOMPANY ANY SUSTAINED DEEP
CONVECTION ACROSS THIS AREA.
..DEAN.. 05/04/2023
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SPC MAY 4, 2023 DAY 4-8 SEVERE WEATHER OUTLOOK
DAY 4-8 OUTLOOK
DAY 4-8 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0345 AM CDT THU MAY 04 2023
VALID 071200Z - 121200Z
...DISCUSSION...
ON D4/SUNDAY, SOME SEVERE THREAT IS LIKELY TO MATERIALIZE ACROSS
PARTS OF THE MIDWEST AND MID-MS VALLEY, AS INCREASING LOW-LEVEL
MOISTURE WILL SUPPORT MODERATE TO LOCALLY STRONG BUOYANCY NEAR AND
SOUTH OF AN INCREASINGLY DIFFUSE WARM FRONT. HOWEVER, STRONGER
MIDLEVEL FLOW/DEEP-LAYER SHEAR AND ANY EMBEDDED SHORTWAVE TROUGHS
ARE LIKELY TO REMAIN DISPLACED SOMEWHAT NORTHWARD OF THE STRONGER
INSTABILITY. AS A RESULT, THE GREATEST RELATIVE SEVERE THREAT MAY BE
TIED TO STORMS DEVELOPING NEAR THE WARM FRONTAL ZONE AND ANY REMNANT
OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES FROM OVERNIGHT/MORNING CONVECTION, AND
PREDICTABILITY REGARDING THE PLACEMENT OF THOSE FEATURES IS LOW AT
THIS FORECAST RANGE. ISOLATED STRONG/SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL ALSO
REMAIN POSSIBLE ACROSS PARTS OF THE SOUTHERN PLAINS, WITHIN A
STRONGLY UNSTABLE AND WEAKLY FORCED REGIME.
ON D5/MONDAY, SOME SEVERE THREAT MAY SPREAD EASTWARD INTO THE OH
VALLEY, AND PERSIST ACROSS PARTS OF THE SOUTHERN PLAINS/MS VALLEY.
HOWEVER, GUIDANCE GENERALLY SUGGESTS THAT ANY REMAINING SURFACE
LOWS/BOUNDARIES WILL BECOME INCREASINGLY ILL-DEFINED IN THE ABSENCE
OF STRONGER LARGE-SCALE FORCING, RESULTING IN LOW CONFIDENCE
REGARDING ORGANIZED SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL.
FOR D6/TUESDAY AND BEYOND, SPREAD IN DETERMINISTIC AND ENSEMBLE
GUIDANCE NOTABLY INCREASES REGARDING THE UPPER-LEVEL PATTERN. IN
GENERAL, SOME REAMPLIFICATION OF THE PATTERN APPEARS POSSIBLE,
THOUGH THE POTENTIAL FOR ANY STRONGER SHORTWAVE OR LONGWAVE TROUGHS
TO IMPINGE UPON GREATER INSTABILITY REMAINS QUITE UNCERTAIN AT THIS
FORECAST RANGE.
READ MORE
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SPC DAY 1 FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK
SPC DAY 1 FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK
DAY 1 FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0128 AM CDT THU MAY 04 2023
VALID 041200Z - 051200Z
...SYNOPSIS...
ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS
THE SOUTHWEST INTO THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS. SUBSIDENCE IN THE WAKE
OF A SUB-TROPICAL SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL OVERSPREAD SOUTHEAST AZ AND
NM THIS AFTERNOON. POOR OVERNIGHT RH RECOVERY IS NOTED AT A FEW
SURFACE STATIONS ACROSS THIS REGION, AND 00 UTC SOUNDINGS FROM TUS,
ABQ, AND EPZ SAMPLED VERY DRY BOUNDARY LAYERS. WITH ADDITIONAL
DRYING/WARMING EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON, RH REDUCTIONS INTO THE LOW
TO MID TEENS APPEAR LIKELY. WEAK LEE CYCLOGENESIS ACROSS THE TX
PANHANDLE INTO NORTHWEST OK WILL RESULT IN A MODEST LOW-LEVEL MASS
RESPONSE ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST. SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 15 MPH ARE
EXPECTED, BUT SHOULD FREQUENTLY GUST BETWEEN 20-30 MPH. THE PREVIOUS
ELEVATED RISK AREA HAS BEEN EXPANDED TO INCLUDE PORTIONS OF
SOUTHEAST NM. ALTHOUGH THIS AREA HAS RECENTLY RECEIVED SPOTTY
RAINFALL, LOCAL REPORTS NOTED THAT DRY LIGHTNING OVER THE PAST 48
HOURS HAS RESULTED IN A FEW FIRE STARTS. THIS NOT ONLY INDICATES
THAT FUELS ARE GENERALLY RECEPTIVE (OUTSIDE OF POCKETS OF HEAVIER
RAINFALL), BUT ALSO IMPLIES THAT HOLDOVER FIRES ARE POSSIBLE AND MAY
SPREAD AMID THE HOT, DRY, AND WINDY CONDITIONS EXPECTED TODAY.
..MOORE.. 05/04/2023
...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV/FIRE FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
READ MORE
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SPC DAY 2 FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK
SPC DAY 2 FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK
DAY 2 FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0155 AM CDT THU MAY 04 2023
VALID 051200Z - 061200Z
...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR FAR SOUTHEAST ARIZONA INTO NEW
MEXICO...
...SYNOPSIS...
CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FRIDAY AFTERNOON
ACROSS FAR SOUTHEAST AZ INTO MUCH OF NM. THE MEANDERING UPPER-LEVEL
LOW OVER THE WEST COAST IS FORECAST TO BEGIN TRANSLATING EAST
TOWARDS THE ROCKIES DURING THE DAY FRIDAY. DESPITE WEAK LEE
TROUGHING OVER THE HIGH PLAINS, STRONG MID-LEVEL FLOW WILL
OVERSPREAD MUCH OF THE SOUTHWEST. DEEP BOUNDARY-LAYER MIXING AND
BROAD SUBSIDENCE WILL ALLOW FOR EFFICIENT DOWNWARD TRANSPORT OF
25-35 MPH WINDS AND PROMOTE RH REDUCTIONS INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS TO
LOW TEENS. SUSTAINED CRITICAL CONDITIONS APPEARS MOST LIKELY FROM
FAR SOUTHEAST AZ INTO NORTHEAST NM WHERE BOUNDARY-LAYER WINDS ARE
CURRENTLY EXPECTED TO BE STRONGEST.
ELEVATED FIRE CONDITIONS MAY EXTEND WELL INTO THE TX PANHANDLE AND
POSSIBLY AS FAR EAST AS WESTERN OK. FUELS ARE CURRENTLY UNRECEPTIVE
ACROSS THIS REGION AFTER RECENT RAINFALL, WHICH PRECLUDES AN
EASTWARD EXPANSION OF THE RISK AREA. HOWEVER, RAPID DRYING OF FINE
GRASSES MAY SUPPORT LOCAL FIRE CONCERNS. SIMILARLY, ELEVATED
CONDITIONS MAY SPREAD FURTHER NORTH INTO SOUTHEAST CO THAN CURRENTLY
DEPICTED, BUT THIS POTENTIAL APPEARS TO BE CONDITIONAL ON THE
STRENGTH OF THE LEE CYCLONE OVER EAST-CENTRAL CO. THIS AREA MAY BE A
CANDIDATE FOR HIGHLIGHT EXPANSION IF GUIDANCE COMES INTO BETTER
AGREEMENT REGARDING THE EVOLUTION OF THE SURFACE LOW.
..MOORE.. 05/04/2023
...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV/FIRE FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
READ MORE
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