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LU9DCE > ALERT 06.05.23 12:00z 406 Lines 16794 Bytes #999 (0) @ WW
BID : 9398_LU9DCE
Read: GUEST
Subj: STORM PREDICTION CENTER 06-MAY23
Path: HB9ON<IW8PGT<I3XTY<I0OJJ<EA2RCF<LU9DCE
Sent: 230506/1200Z 9398@LU9DCE.TOR.BA.ARG.SOAM LinBPQ6.0.23
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PHP SCHEDULED NEWSLETTERS (PSN)
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SPC - NO WATCHES ARE VALID AS OF SAT MAY 6 08:52:01 UTC 2023
NO WATCHES ARE VALID AS OF SAT MAY 6 08:52:01 UTC 2023.
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SPC - NO MDS ARE IN EFFECT AS OF SAT MAY 6 08:52:01 UTC 2023
NO MESOSCALE DISCUSSIONS ARE IN EFFECT AS OF SAT MAY 6 08:52:01 UTC 2023.
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SPC MAY 6, 2023 0600 UTC DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
SPC 1200Z DAY 1 OUTLOOK
DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1245 AM CDT SAT MAY 06 2023
VALID 061200Z - 071200Z
...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF
THE SOUTHERN PLAINS...
...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS SURROUNDING THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS ENH AND ACROSS PARTS OF THE MID-MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY...
...SUMMARY...
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED LATE AFTERNOON/EVENING ACROSS
PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. VERY LARGE HAIL AND SEVERE WIND
GUSTS ARE THE PRIMARY RISKS. ISOLATED SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL
WILL ALSO EXIST ACROSS PARTS OF THE MID-MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. LARGE
HAIL IS THE MAIN THREAT.
...SOUTHERN PLAINS...
MAIN UPPER RIDGE HAS SHIFTED EAST OF THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS. THIS
HAS ALLOWED A FEW WEAK DISTURBANCES TO EJECT NORTHEAST INTO THIS
REGION THE LAST FEW DAYS, ENHANCING CONVECTION ALONG/EAST OF THE
DRYLINE. WHILE IT'S NOT ENTIRELY CLEAR, LATEST WATER-VAPOR IMAGERY
SUGGESTS A WEAK DISTURBANCE MAY ONCE AGAIN APPROACH WEST TX AROUND
PEAK HEATING. THIS EVOLUTION SUGGESTS THE DRYLINE WILL RETREAT A BIT
FARTHER WEST AND MODELS ARE MORE AGGRESSIVE INCREASING 850MB FLOW
ACROSS TX INTO OK BY EARLY EVENING.
EARLY THIS MORNING, REMNANTS OF DIURNALLY DRIVEN CONVECTION ARE
PROGRESSING ACROSS CENTRAL INTO EAST TX. THIS ACTIVITY HAS DISRUPTED
BOUNDARY-LAYER MOISTURE ACROSS NORTH-CENTRAL TX, BUT LOWER-MID 70S
SURFACE DEW POINTS ARE HOLDING ALONG THE SOUTHWESTERN FLANK OF THE
SLOW-MOVING MCS. CURRENT THINKING IS MOISTURE SHOULD EASILY ADVANCE
NORTH BEHIND THIS CONVECTION DURING THE DAY AND VERY STRONG
INSTABILITY WILL EVOLVE AS TEMPERATURES WARM RAPIDLY INTO THE LOWER
90S. NAM FORECAST SOUNDING FOR ABI AT 22Z EXHIBITS 5000 J/KG SBCAPE
WITH VERY STEEP LAPSE RATES, THOUGH SURFACE-6KM SHEAR IS NOT
FORECAST TO BE THAT STRONG (20KT). SOUNDINGS EXHIBIT VERY STRONG
INSTABILITY INTO SOUTHERN OK BY EARLY EVENING. CONVECTION SHOULD
DEVELOP NEAR/EAST OF THE DRYLINE BY 22Z ACROSS WEST/NORTHWEST TX
THEN SPREAD/DEVELOP INTO SOUTHERN OK. INITIAL ACTIVITY MAY BE
SUPERCELLULAR IN NATURE DESPITE THE MARGINAL WIND PROFILES; HOWEVER,
UPSCALE GROWTH MAY ULTIMATELY LEAD TO AN MCS THAT WOULD TRACK NEAR
THE RED RIVER AFTER SUNSET. VERY LARGE HAIL CAN BE EXPECTED WITH
LATE AFTERNOON/EVENING SUPERCELLS. OTHERWISE, SEVERE WINDS MAY
ACCOMPANY THE MCS IF IT ORGANIZES ADEQUATELY.
...MID-MISSISSIPPI VALLEY...
MCS HAS EVOLVED AND IS PROPAGATING EAST ACROSS CENTRAL NE EARLY THIS
MORNING, AIDED IN PART BY A WEAK SHORT-WAVE TROUGH AND LLJ. LLJ IS
FORECAST TO VEER TO THE SOUTHWEST ACROSS EASTERN KS/MO BY 18Z WHICH
WILL FOCUS A CORRIDOR OF WARM ADVECTION FROM IA INTO EASTERN MO/IL.
CONVECTION, IN SOME FORM, WILL LIKELY PERSIST ALONG THE NOSE OF THE
LLJ, POSSIBLY EXPANDING IN AREAL COVERAGE WITHIN THE WARM ADVECTION
ZONE. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST MOST OF THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD BE
ELEVATED AND THE PRIMARY RISK WILL BE HAIL. THERE IS CONSIDERABLE
UNCERTAINTY HOW THIS ACTIVITY WILL ULTIMATELY EVOLVE. HOWEVER, DUE
TO THE WESTERLY COMPONENT, MOISTURE/INSTABILITY MAY SPREAD FARTHER
EAST ACROSS IL INTO WESTERN IN LATE. THIS MAY BE ENOUGH FOR A FEW
STRONG/ISOLATED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS LATE IN THE PERIOD.
...SOUTHEAST LA REGION...
WEAK MID-LEVEL SHORT-WAVE TROUGH IS ASSOCIATED WITH AN MCS THAT IS
PROPAGATING INTO EAST TX EARLY THIS MORNING. THIS FEATURE WILL
ADVANCE DOWNSTREAM AND AID RENEWED CONVECTION ACROSS SOUTHEAST LA
WHERE ADEQUATE MOISTURE/INSTABILITY CURRENTLY RESIDE. DEEP-LAYER
FLOW IS NOT FORECAST TO BE THAT SIGNIFICANT BUT HAIL/WIND COULD BE
NOTED WITH STRONGER DAYTIME STORMS.
..DARROW/LYONS.. 05/06/2023
READ MORE
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SPC MAY 6, 2023 0600 UTC DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
SPC 0600Z DAY 2 OUTLOOK
DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1259 AM CDT SAT MAY 06 2023
VALID 071200Z - 081200Z
...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF
THE MID MISSOURI VALLEY...
...SUMMARY...
SEVERE STORMS WITH LARGE HAIL AND WIND DAMAGE WILL BE POSSIBLE
ACROSS PARTS OF THE MID MISSOURI VALLEY ON SUNDAY. MARGINALLY SEVERE
STORMS WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE IN PARTS OF THE SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL
PLAINS, AND ACROSS PARTS OF THE SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES AND OHIO
VALLEY.
...MID MISSOURI VALLEY...
AN UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE IS FORECAST TO REMAIN ACROSS THE WESTERN GREAT
LAKES ON SUNDAY AS SOUTHWEST MID-LEVEL FLOW CONTINUES ACROSS MUCH OF
THE CENTRAL U.S. AT THE SURFACE, A COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO ADVANCE
SOUTHWARD INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS AND MID MISSOURI VALLEY. TO THE
SOUTH OF THE FRONT, SURFACE DEWPOINTS IN THE 60S F WILL LIKELY
CONTRIBUTE TO MODERATE INSTABILITY BY AFTERNOON. AS SURFACE HEATING
TAKES PLACE AND LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE INCREASES ALONG THE FRONT,
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT APPEARS LIKELY FROM LATE
AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING. ALTHOUGH THE MODELS STILL SHOW SOME
VARIANCE AMONG SOLUTIONS, A CONSENSUS SUGGESTS THAT A CLUSTER OF
STORMS COULD INITIATE IN SOUTH-CENTRAL NEBRASKA DURING THE
AFTERNOON, MOVING EASTWARD ACROSS SOUTHEAST NEBRASKA INTO SOUTHWEST
IOWA AND NORTHWEST MISSOURI BY EARLY EVENING.
FORECAST SOUNDINGS AHEAD OF THE FRONT IN THE MID MISSOURI VALLEY AT
00Z/MONDAY GENERALLY SHOW STRONG INSTABILITY (MLCAPE FROM 3000 TO
4000 J/KG), MODERATE DEEP-LAYER SHEAR (0-6 KM SHEAR OF 40 TO 50
KNOTS), AND STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES NEAR OR ABOVE 8.0 C/KM. THIS
ENVIRONMENT WOULD BE FAVORABLE FOR SUPERCELLS WITH LARGE HAIL AND
WIND DAMAGE. THE LARGER AND MORE DOMINANT SUPERCELLS COULD PRODUCE
HAILSTONES GREATER THAN 2 INCHES IN DIAMETER. ALTHOUGH A SEVERE
THREAT APPEARS LIKELY ACROSS PARTS OF THE MID MISSOURI VALLEY ON
SUNDAY, THERE IS SOME UNCERTAINTY CONCERNING THE TIMING OF THE FRONT
AND DISTRIBUTION OF INSTABILITY. THE SLIGHT HAS BEEN PLACED WHERE
CONFIDENCE IS GREATEST FOR STRONG DESTABILIZATION NEAR OR JUST AHEAD
OF THE EXPECTED POSITION OF THE FRONT BY LATE AFTERNOON.
...TEXAS/OKLAHOMA/KANSAS...
WEST-SOUTHWESTERLY MID-LEVEL FLOW IS FORECAST ACROSS MUCH OF THE
SOUTHWESTERN AND SOUTH-CENTRAL U.S. ON SUNDAY. AT THE SURFACE, A
MOIST AIRMASS WILL BE LOCATED FROM EAST AND CENTRAL TEXAS NORTHWARD
INTO EASTERN KANSAS. A DRYLINE IS EXPECTED TO BE IN PLACE ON THE
WESTERN EDGE OF THIS MOIST AIRMASS BY AFTERNOON. TO THE EAST OF THE
DRYLINE, STRONG DESTABILIZATION APPEARS PROBABLE IN MANY AREAS. A
FEW THUNDERSTORMS COULD DEVELOP TO THE EAST OF THE DRYLINE DURING
THE MID TO LATE AFTERNOON. THE STRONG INSTABILITY COMBINED WITH
STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND 0-6 KM SHEAR FROM 30 TO 40 KNOTS,
SHOULD BE FAVORABLE FOR AN ISOLATED SEVERE THREAT WITH SUPERCELLS
POSSIBLE. HOWEVER, THE SEVERE THREAT IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN ISOLATED
DUE TO THE WEAK FORCING, WITH A LOCALIZED THREAT IN AREAS WHERE
CELLS CAN OVERCOME THE CAP.
...OHIO VALLEY/SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES...
AN UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE WILL REMAIN IN PLACE ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES ON
SUNDAY. AT THE SURFACE, A POCKET OF MAXIMIZED LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE IS
FORECAST ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY, WHERE SURFACE DEWPOINTS ARE
EXPECTED TO BE IN THE 60S F. AS MODERATE INSTABILITY DEVELOPS DURING
THE DAY, ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE WITHIN
THIS MOIST AIRMASS. FORECAST SOUNDINGS IN THE OHIO VALLEY DURING THE
AFTERNOON SUGGEST THAT 0-6 KM SHEAR SHOULD GENERALLY REMAIN LESS
THAN 35 KNOTS. THIS COMBINED WITH THE NEGATIVE INFLUENCE OF THE
UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE SHOULD KEEP ANY SEVERE THREAT ISOLATED AND
MARGINAL.
..BROYLES.. 05/06/2023
READ MORE
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SPC MAY 6, 2023 0730 UTC DAY 3 SEVERE THUNDERSTORM OUTLOOK
SPC 0730Z DAY 3 OUTLOOK
DAY 3 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0213 AM CDT SAT MAY 06 2023
VALID 081200Z - 091200Z
...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF
MISSOURI...ILLINOIS AND INDIANA...
...SUMMARY...
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH WIND DAMAGE AND ISOLATED LARGE HAIL WILL
BE POSSIBLE ON MONDAY FROM THE OZARKS EASTWARD INTO THE LOWER OHIO
VALLEY.
...OZARKS/MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY/OHIO VALLEY...
WEST TO WEST-NORTHWEST MID-LEVEL FLOW IS FORECAST TO DEVELOP ACROSS
MUCH OF THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN U.S. ON MONDAY. AT THE SURFACE, A
FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS FORECAST TO BE LOCATED FROM THE OZARKS EASTWARD
INTO THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY BY AFTERNOON. SOUTH OF THE FRONT, SURFACE
DEWPOINTS WILL LIKELY BE IN THE 60S F, WITH MODERATE INSTABILITY
DEVELOPING ACROSS MUCH OF THE MOIST SECTOR BY AFTERNOON. AS SURFACE
TEMPERATURES WARM AND LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE INCREASES ALONG THE
FRONT, SCATTERED CONVECTIVE INITIATION SHOULD TAKE PLACE.
THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT WILL LIKELY BE AIDED BY ANY SHORTWAVE
TROUGH PASSING FROM WEST TO EAST ACROSS THE REGION.
FORECAST SOUNDINGS NEAR THE EXPECTED POSITION OF THE FRONT BY
00Z/TUESDAY HAVE MLCAPE IN THE 2000 TO 3500 J/KG RANGE, WITH
MODERATE DEEP-LAYER SHEAR AND STEEP LOW TO MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES.
THIS SHOULD SUPPORT SEVERE STORM DEVELOPMENT. THE FORECAST WIND
PROFILE WOULD SUPPORT SUPERCELLS, ALTHOUGH SHORT MULTICELL LINE
SEGMENTS ALSO WILL BE POSSIBLE. A SEVERE THREAT APPEARS MOST LIKELY
WITH ANY CELL CLUSTER THAT CAN GROW UPSCALE AND REMAIN CLOSE TO BUT
SOUTH OF THE FRONT. THE MAIN UNCERTAINTY IN THIS FORECAST IS THE
POSITION OF THE FRONT AND MAGNITUDE OF DESTABILIZATION THAT WILL BE
REALIZED MONDAY AFTERNOON. MODEL CONSENSUS PLACES THE STRONGEST
INSTABILITY ALONG AN EAST-TO-WEST CORRIDOR FROM WESTERN MISSOURI
EASTWARD TO FAR SOUTHWESTERN INDIANA, WHERE THE SLIGHT RISK IS
CURRENTLY FORECAST.
...SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL PLAINS...
WEST-SOUTHWESTERLY MID-LEVEL FLOW WILL BE IN PLACE ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL PLAINS ON MONDAY. AT THE SURFACE, A MOIST
AIRMASS IS FORECAST ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF TEXAS EXTENDING
NORTHWARD INTO SOUTHEAST KANSAS. BY AFTERNOON, MODERATE INSTABILITY
IS EXPECTED TO BE IN PLACE ACROSS MOST OF THIS AIRMASS. A CAPPING
INVERSION AND LACK OF LARGE-SCALE ASCENT SHOULD KEEP CONVECTIVE
COVERAGE ISOLATED. HOWEVER, A FEW CELLS COULD INITIATE TO THE EAST
OF THE DRYLINE, IN AREAS WHERE INSTABILITY AND LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE
BECOME MAXIMIZED. ANY STORM THAT CAN OVERCOME THE CAP, COULD HAVE
POTENTIAL FOR LARGE HAIL AND ISOLATED WIND DAMAGE.
..BROYLES.. 05/06/2023
READ MORE
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SPC MAY 6, 2023 DAY 4-8 SEVERE WEATHER OUTLOOK
DAY 4-8 OUTLOOK
DAY 4-8 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0348 AM CDT SAT MAY 06 2023
VALID 091200Z - 141200Z
...DISCUSSION...
...TUESDAY/DAY 4 AND WEDNESDAY/DAY 5...
AN UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE IS FORECAST TO MOVE SLOWLY EASTWARD ACROSS THE
MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND UPPER MIDWEST FROM EARLY TO MID WEEK. A
MOIST AIRMASS IS FORECAST TO BE LOCATED FROM THE SOUTHEAST INTO THE
MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. THE MOIST AIRMASS MAY ADVECT NORTHWESTWARD
INTO THE MID MISSOURI VALLEY ON WEDNESDAY. THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE
POSSIBLE ACROSS PARTS OF THIS MOIST AIRMASS BOTH TUESDAY AFTERNOON
AND WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. HOWEVER, ANY SEVERE THREAT IS EXPECTED TO
REMAIN ISOLATED DUE TO THE PRESENCE OF THE UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE.
...THURSDAY/DAY 6 TO SATURDAY/DAY 8...
ON THURSDAY, AN UPPER-LEVEL LOW IS FORECAST TO MOVE NORTHEASTWARD
INTO THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS. A BAND OF LARGE-SCALE ASCENT,
ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER-LEVEL SYSTEM, COULD MOVE EASTWARD ACROSS
THE CENTRAL PLAINS THURSDAY AFTERNOON. THIS WOULD BE FAVORABLE FOR
THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT, ESPECIALLY AS THE AIRMASS DESTABILIZES
THURSDAY AFTERNOON. SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WOULD BE POSSIBLE DURING
THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING FROM NEBRASKA INTO IOWA. HOWEVER,
THERE IS CONSIDERABLE VARIANCE AMONG THE MODELS ON THE MAGNITUDE OF
INSTABILITY AHEAD OF THE SYSTEM AND TIMING OF THE UPPER-LEVEL LOW.
WILL WAIT FOR RUN-TO-RUN CONSISTENCY BEFORE CONSIDERING A THREAT
AREA FOR THE CENTRAL PLAINS ON THURSDAY.
ON FRIDAY AND SATURDAY, THE UPPER-LEVEL LOW IS FORECAST TO MOVE
SLOWLY EASTWARD ACROSS THE NORTH-CENTRAL STATES. THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPMENT WOULD BE POSSIBLE AHEAD OF THE SYSTEM EACH AFTERNOON AND
EVENING FROM THE NORTHERN PLAINS INTO THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY.
WHILE SEVERE STORMS SEEM POSSIBLE, UNCERTAINTY CONCERNING
INSTABILITY AND TIMING IS SUBSTANTIAL AT THIS TIME IN THE DAY 4 TO 8
PERIOD.
READ MORE
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SPC DAY 1 FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK
SPC DAY 1 FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK
DAY 1 FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0147 AM CDT SAT MAY 06 2023
VALID 061200Z - 071200Z
...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AND EASTERN
NEW MEXICO INTO SOUTHEASTERN COLORADO....
...SYNOPSIS...
IN THE MID-LEVELS, BROAD TROUGHING CENTERED OVER THE ROCKIES WILL
CONTINUE TO SLOWLY WEAKEN AS SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW LINGERS OVER THE
HIGH PLAINS. THE MODERATE FLOW ALOFT, IN CONJUNCTION WITH A MODEST
LEE LOW AND TRAILING DRYLINE, WILL AID IN SUSTAINED DOWNSLOPE
SURFACE WINDS AND STRONGER GUSTS THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. WITH WARM
TEMPERATURES AND LOW HUMIDITY EXPECTED, CRITICAL FIRE-WEATHER
CONCERNS SHOULD DEVELOP OVER PORTIONS OF NM AND CO.
...NM INTO PORTIONS OF SOUTHEASTERN CO...
THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS, MID-LEVEL FLOW OF 30-40 KT SHOULD
GRADUALLY BEGIN TO MIX DOWN TO THE SURFACE AS TEMPERATURES QUICKLY
WARM. AIDED BY THE WEST TO EAST PRESSURE GRADIENT BEHIND THE LEE LOW
AND TRAILING DRYLINE, SOUTHWESTERLY SURFACE WINDS OF 15-25 MPH
SHOULD DEVELOP BY MIDDAY. POOR OVERNIGHT HUMIDITY RECOVERIES ARE
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE WITH AFTERNOON RH VALUES OF 7-15% EXPECTED
OWING TO WARM TEMPERATURES AND THE WELL-MIXED AIR MASS. ELEVATED AND
CRITICAL FIRE-WEATHER CONDITIONS APPEAR LIKELY OVER DRY FUELS. THE
MOST LIKELY CORRIDOR FOR SUSTAINED CRITICAL CONDITIONS IS OVER
PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AND EASTERN NM, INTO FAR SOUTHERN CO, WHERE THE
STRONGEST WINDS AND LOWEST RH OVERLAP THROUGH MUCH OF THE AFTERNOON.
SOME FIRE-WEATHER THREAT MAY EXTEND FARTHER EASTWARD INTO PORTIONS
OF THE OK/TX PANHANDLES, IMMEDIATELY BEHIND THE TRAILING DRYLINE.
HOWEVER, PRECIPITATION WITHIN THE LAST SEVERAL DAYS HAS LIKELY
TEMPERED FUELS SUCH THAT FIRE-WEATHER CONCERNS SHOULD REMAIN MORE
LOCALIZED, DESPITE FAVORABLE METEOROLOGICAL CONDITIONS.
..LYONS.. 05/06/2023
...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV/FIRE FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
READ MORE
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SPC DAY 2 FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK
SPC DAY 2 FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK
DAY 2 FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0149 AM CDT SAT MAY 06 2023
VALID 071200Z - 081200Z
...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PORTIONS OF NORTHEASTERN NEW
MEXICO...
...SYNOPSIS...
WITHIN THE BROAD MID-LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE CENTRAL ROCKIES, A SUBTLE
SHORTWAVE IS EXPECTED TO EXIT THE GREAT BASIN AND PASS OVER PORTIONS
OF THE HIGH PLAINS SUNDAY. ACCOMPANIED BY A SMALL INCREASE IN FLOW
ALOFT, THE LEE LOW SHOULD DEEPEN, AIDING IN STRONGER SURFACE WINDS.
WITH DRY AND WINDY SURFACE CONDITIONS EXPECTED BEHIND A TRAILING
DRYLINE, CRITICAL FIRE-WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE.
...SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS...
AS THE SUBTLE SHORTWAVE TROUGH PASSES OVER THE SOUTHWEST AND
SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS SUNDAY, GUSTY SOUTHWEST SURFACE WINDS ARE
EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OVER PORTIONS OF EASTERN NM. CONFIDENCE HAS
INCREASED THAT SUSTAINED WINDS WILL REACH 20-25 MPH WITH HIGHER
GUSTS SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THE DRY DOWNSLOPE FLOW, HOT
TEMPERATURES, AND POOR OVERNIGHT HUMIDITY RECOVERIES WILL SUPPORT
WIDESPREAD RH VALUES BELOW 15%. ELEVATED FIRE-WEATHER CONDITIONS
APPEAR LIKELY FROM EASTERN NM, INTO PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN CO WITH THE
MOST LIKELY CORRIDOR FOR SUSTAINED CRITICAL CONDITIONS IN
NORTHEASTERN PARTS OF NM. FARTHER EAST INTO THE WESTERN OK/TX
PANHANDLES, FUELS ARE MORE QUESTIONABLE OWING TO RECENT
PRECIPITATION. HOWEVER, SEVERAL DAYS OF DRYING SINCE SUGGEST SOME
POTENTIAL FOR NEAR-CRITICAL FIRE-WEATHER CONDITIONS GIVEN GUSTY
SURFACE WINDS AND LOW HUMIDITY BEHIND THE DRYLINE.
..LYONS.. 05/06/2023
...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV/FIRE FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
READ MORE
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