| |
LU9DCE > ALERT 10.05.23 12:10z 427 Lines 17775 Bytes #999 (0) @ WW
BID : 9578_LU9DCE
Read: GUEST
Subj: STORM PREDICTION CENTER 10-MAY23
Path: HB9ON<IW8PGT<I3XTY<IZ3LSV<DB0ERF<DK0WUE<GB7CIP<VE3KPG<VA3TOK<LU9DCE
Sent: 230510/1200Z 9578@LU9DCE.TOR.BA.ARG.SOAM LinBPQ6.0.23
__ _ _ ___ ____ ___ ____ ____ ____ ____
( ) / )( \/ _ \( \ / __)( __) ( _ \( _ \/ ___)
/ (_/\) \/ (\__ )) D (( (__ ) _) ) _ ( ) _ (\___ \
\____/\____/(___/(____/ \___)(____) (____/(____/(____/
PACKET RADIO STATION - BUENOS AIRES (GF05OM)
PHP SCHEDULED NEWSLETTERS (PSN)
COPYRIGHT 2023 - EDUARDO A. CASTILLO
+----------------------------------------------------------------------------+
SPC - NO WATCHES ARE VALID AS OF WED MAY 10 08:50:02 UTC 2023
NO WATCHES ARE VALID AS OF WED MAY 10 08:50:02 UTC 2023.
=#=#=#=#=#=#=#=#=
SPC - NO MDS ARE IN EFFECT AS OF WED MAY 10 08:50:02 UTC 2023
NO MESOSCALE DISCUSSIONS ARE IN EFFECT AS OF WED MAY 10 08:50:02 UTC 2023.
=#=#=#=#=#=#=#=#=
SPC MAY 10, 2023 0600 UTC DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
SPC 1200Z DAY 1 OUTLOOK
DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1259 AM CDT WED MAY 10 2023
VALID 101200Z - 111200Z
...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF
THE HIGH PLAINS...
...SUMMARY...
SCATTERED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING LARGE TO VERY
LARGE HAIL, SEVERE/DAMAGING WINDS, AND POTENTIALLY A FEW TORNADOES
SHOULD OCCUR THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING, CENTERED OVER PARTS OF THE
CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS.
...HIGH PLAINS...
AN UPPER TROUGH OVER THE WESTERN STATES WILL PROGRESS EASTWARD
TODAY, WITH MERIDIONAL/SOUTHERLY FLOW AT MID/UPPER LEVELS BECOMING
ESTABLISHED OVER MUCH OF THE HIGH PLAINS BY LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. AT THE SURFACE, LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO STREAM
NORTHWARD OVER MUCH OF THE GREAT PLAINS, AND TO THE EAST OF A
DRYLINE FORECAST TO MIX EASTWARD OVER THE HIGH PLAINS THROUGH THE
DAY. A ZONE OF LOW-LEVEL EASTERLY/UPSLOPE FLOW IS EXPECTED TO
PERSIST, CENTERED ON NORTHEASTERN CO INTO EASTERN WY AND THE NE
PANHANDLE VICINITY.
AS LARGE-SCALE ASCENT PRECEDING THE UPPER TROUGH OVERSPREADS THE
ROCKIES AND ADJACENT HIGH PLAINS, INITIALLY HIGH-BASED CONVECTION
SHOULD DEVELOP OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN AND SPREAD
NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. ISOLATED STRONG TO
SEVERE WINDS MAY OCCUR WITH THE INITIAL ACTIVITY, BUT LARGE HAIL
SHOULD BE AN INCREASING CONCERN ONCE THUNDERSTORMS INTERCEPT GREATER
LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE ACROSS THE HIGH PLAINS. A CORRIDOR OF VERY LARGE
HAIL POTENTIAL IS EVIDENT ACROSS PARTS OF NORTHEASTERN CO INTO
NORTHWESTERN KS AND PARTS OF SOUTHWESTERN NE. ACROSS THIS AREA,
FAVORABLE DEEP-LAYER SHEAR SHOULD SUPPORT SUPERCELLS. AMPLE
LOW-LEVEL SHEAR SHOULD ALSO SUPPORT A THREAT FOR A FEW TORNADOES
OVER THIS SAME REGION IF CONVECTION CAN REMAIN AT LEAST
SEMI-DISCRETE THROUGH THE EARLY EVENING. THERE IS STILL SOME
UNCERTAINTY WITH HOW MANY SUPERCELLS WILL DEVELOP, AND HOW QUICKLY
THE MODE MAY TRANSITION TO MORE LINEAR CLUSTERS, WITH PRIMARILY A
DAMAGING WIND THREAT. OVERALL CONVECTIVE COVERAGE SHOULD BE MORE
LIMITED/ISOLATED WITH SOUTHWARD EXTENT ALONG THE DRYLINE INTO THE
SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS.
...COASTAL/EAST TEXAS INTO LOUISIANA...
BENEATH UPPER RIDGING, A WEAK MID-LEVEL CYCLONE AUGMENTED BY A
CONVECTIVELY GENERATED MCV WILL MOVE SLOWLY NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD
ACROSS THE ARKLATEX REGION TODAY. MODESTLY ENHANCED LOW/MID-LEVEL
FLOW ASSOCIATED WITH THESE FEATURES SHOULD ENCOURAGE SOME UPDRAFT
ORGANIZATION ACROSS PARTS OF COASTAL/SOUTHEAST TX INTO LA.
THUNDERSTORMS THAT DEVELOP ACROSS THIS REGION COULD BECOME LOCALLY
STRONG TO SEVERE, WITH A THREAT FOR ISOLATED DAMAGING WINDS. A
TORNADO OR TWO ALSO APPEARS POSSIBLE, GIVEN A FAVORABLE/VEERING
LOW-LEVEL WIND PROFILE AND SOME HODOGRAPH CURVATURE. HOWEVER,
WIDESPREAD CLOUDINESS SHOULD TEND TO MUTE DAYTIME HEATING AND THE
DEGREE OF DESTABILIZATION THAT CAN OCCUR. HAVE THEREFORE MAINTAINED
A MARGINAL RISK, WITH SOME NORTHWARD EXPANSION.
...NORTH DAKOTA INTO NORTHERN MINNESOTA...
A WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL MOVE EASTWARD ATOP THE NORTHERN EXTENT
OF THE UPPER RIDGE NEAR THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON/EVENING. LATEST NAM/RAP FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE STEEP
MIDLEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL BE PRESENT, AIDING IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF
WEAK TO MODERATE INSTABILITY. THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP
ALONG A SOUTHEASTWARD-ADVANCING FRONT INITIALLY OVER MANITOBA AND
SPREAD SOUTHEAST INTO ND AND NORTHERN MN. MODESTLY VEERING WIND
PROFILES WILL RESULT IN MARGINAL EFFECTIVE SHEAR MAGNITUDES AROUND
20-30 KT, ALLOWING FOR OCCASIONALLY ORGANIZED CELLS, DESPITE RATHER
MODEST LOW/MID-LEVEL FLOW. ISOLATED LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS
APPEAR POSSIBLE WITH THE STRONGEST CORES.
..GLEASON/LYONS.. 05/10/2023
READ MORE
=#=#=#=#=#=#=#=#=
SPC MAY 10, 2023 0600 UTC DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
SPC 0600Z DAY 2 OUTLOOK
DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0103 AM CDT WED MAY 10 2023
VALID 111200Z - 121200Z
...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM SOUTH DAKOTA
TO OKLAHOMA...
...SUMMARY...
STRONG/SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE FORECAST THURSDAY ACROSS THE CENTRAL
PLAINS VICINITY, WHERE LARGE HAIL CAN BE EXPECTED ALONG WITH LOCALLY
DAMAGING WINDS AND POSSIBLY A COUPLE OF TORNADOES.
...SYNOPSIS...
AN UPPER LOW IS FORECAST TO MOVE SLOWLY NORTHEASTWARD OUT OF THE
SOUTHERN ROCKIES AND INTO THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS REGION THURSDAY.
MEANWHILE, A WEAKER/LEAD DISTURBANCE IS PROGGED TO SHIFT SLOWLY
NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE OZARKS/LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY TO THE MID
MISSISSIPPI/LOWER OHIO VALLEY THROUGH THE PERIOD. ELSEWHERE,
NORTHEASTERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL PERSIST ACROSS NEW ENGLAND, WHILE
RIDGING PREVAILS ACROSS THE WEST COAST STATES, AND FROM THE
SOUTHEAST NORTHWARD INTO THE MIDWEST.
AT THE SURFACE, A WEAK LOW INITIALLY ANTICIPATED OVER SOUTHEASTERN
COLORADO WILL SHIFT SLOWLY NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS WESTERN KANSAS. A
WEAK/SECONDARY LOW MAY EVOLVE DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON/EARLY
EVENING HOURS ACROSS THE SOUTHWESTERN OKLAHOMA VICINITY, NEAR A
POSSIBLE BULGE IN A DRYLINE THAT WILL BE MIXING EASTWARD ACROSS THE
WESTERN HALF OF TEXAS THROUGH THE AFTERNOON.
ELSEWHERE ACROSS THE U.S., SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL LARGELY
PREVAIL.
...PLAINS STATES FROM SOUTH DAKOTA TO OKLAHOMA...
A RATHER COMPLEX SCENARIO IS FORECAST TO EVOLVE ACROSS THE PLAINS
STATES, AS AN UPPER LOW WITHIN THE BASE OF A NEGATIVELY TILTED
TROUGH CROSSING INTERMOUNTAIN WEST CROSSES THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS.
SOUTHEASTERLY LOW-LEVEL WINDS AHEAD OF THE UPPER LOW AND ASSOCIATED
SURFACE CYCLONE SHOULD MAINTAIN A SEASONABLY MOIST AIRMASS, WHICH
WILL DESTABILIZE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON IN TANDEM WITH DIURNAL
HEATING. AT THIS TIME, IT APPEARS THAT CONVECTIVE COVERAGE SHOULD
GRADUALLY INCREASE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON -- NORTHEAST OF THE LOW
ACROSS PORTIONS OF NEBRASKA, AND SOUTHEASTWARD IN AN ARCING BAND
FROM EASTERN COLORADO INTO WESTERN KANSAS. WITH FLOW VEERING FROM
SOUTHEASTERLY TO SOUTHERLY AND INCREASING WITH HEIGHT, SHEAR WILL BE
SUFFICIENT TO SUPPORT ORGANIZED UPDRAFTS, AND ATTENDANT RISK FOR
HAIL AND LOCALLY DAMAGING WINDS, AND POSSIBLY A TORNADO. THIS
CONVECTION SHOULD SPREAD NORTHEASTWARD THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND
EVENING IN TANDEM WITH THE GRADUAL ADVANCE OF THE PARENT SYNOPTIC
SYSTEM, WITH SEVERE POTENTIAL EVENTUALLY WANING LATER IN THE
EVENING.
A MORE SUBSTANTIAL -- THROUGH ALSO LIKELY MORE ISOLATED -- SEVERE
RISK MAY EVOLVE ACROSS PARTS OF WESTERN OKLAHOMA, NEAR A POTENTIAL
DRYLINE BULGE. WHILE CAPPING SHOULD HINDER DEVELOPMENT UNTIL LATE
AFTERNOON, DEVELOPING STORMS WOULD BE EVOLVING WITHIN AN AIRMASS
FEATURING A MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER BENEATH STEEP LAPSE RATES ALOFT,
AND WITH LOW-LEVEL SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW VEERING AND INCREASING TO
SOUTHWESTERLY AT MID LEVELS. AS A RESULT, A COUPLE OF SUPERCELL
STORMS ARE ANTICIPATED, WHICH WOULD BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING VERY
LARGE HAIL, LOCALLY DAMAGING WIND GUSTS, AND POTENTIALLY A COUPLE OF
TORNADOES. THIS RISK WOULD SPREAD NORTHEASTWARD THROUGH THE EVENING
-- ACROSS OKLAHOMA AND INTO SOUTHERN KANSAS. WHILE QUESTIONS
REGARDING CONVECTIVE COVERAGE ARGUE AGAINST UPGRADING TORNADO OR
HAIL PROBABILITIES AT THIS TIME, SUCH UPGRADES COULD BE NECESSARY IN
FUTURE OUTLOOKS IF THIS SCENARIO BECOMES MORE CERTAIN, AND
PARTICULARLY IF IT APPEARS THAT STORM COVERAGE MAY BE SLIGHTLY
GREATER THAN CURRENTLY ANTICIPATED.
...SOUTHERN MISSISSIPPI AND VICINITY...
A CLUSTER OF THUNDERSTORMS -- WHICH MAY BE ONGOING AT THE START OF
THE PERIOD NEAR THE MISSISSIPPI DELTA REGION -- MAY PERSIST INTO THE
AFTERNOON, AS THE AIRMASS DESTABILIZES. SEVERAL CAMS INDICATE THAT
UPSCALE GROWTH INTO THE AFTERNOON MAY OCCUR, WITH A BAND OF STORMS
SPREADING EASTWARD ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF OF MISSISSIPPI. THOUGH
DEEP-LAYER FLOW IS PROGGED TO REMAIN RATHER WEAK, LOCALLY
GUSTY/DAMAGING WINDS COULD OCCUR WITH A FEW OF THE STRONGER
UPDRAFTS, ALONG WITH MARGINAL HAIL POTENTIAL, WITHIN THIS BAND OF
STORMS THROUGH THE AFTERNOON HOURS.
..GOSS.. 05/10/2023
READ MORE
=#=#=#=#=#=#=#=#=
SPC MAY 10, 2023 0730 UTC DAY 3 SEVERE THUNDERSTORM OUTLOOK
SPC 0730Z DAY 3 OUTLOOK
DAY 3 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0234 AM CDT WED MAY 10 2023
VALID 121200Z - 131200Z
...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF
EASTERN NEBRASKA AND IOWA...AND PORTIONS OF THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY
AND EDWARDS PLATEAU REGION OF TEXAS...
...SUMMARY...
A FEW SEVERE STORMS ARE EXPECTED DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING
ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE EASTERN NEBRASKA AND IOWA VICINITY. SEVERE
POTENTIAL IS ALSO FORECAST TO EVOLVE DURING THE AFTERNOON, AND
CONTINUING INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS, ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE RIO
GRANDE VALLEY AND EDWARDS PLATEAU REGION OF TEXAS.
...SYNOPSIS...
A WEAKENING UPPER LOW IS FORECAST TO DRIFT NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS
CENTRAL NEBRASKA TOWARD SOUTH DAKOTA FRIDAY, WHILE AN ASSOCIATED
WEAK SURFACE LOW DOES THE SAME. A WARM FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THE
LOW WILL EXTEND EAST-SOUTHEASTWARD FROM THE LOW INTO THE MIDWEST.
MEANWHILE, A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL MAKE GRADUAL PROGRESS ACROSS
NEBRASKA AND KANSAS, WHILE THE SOUTHWESTERN PORTION OF THE FRONT --
ACROSS WESTERN OKLAHOMA AND THE TEXAS SOUTH PLAINS -- EVENTUALLY
BEGINS RETREATING BACK NORTHWESTWARD AS LOW-LEVEL WARM ADVECTION
INCREASES ACROSS THIS REGION OVERNIGHT.
THIS INCREASE IN WARM ADVECTION WILL OCCUR AS SOUTHEASTERLY
LOW-LEVEL FLOW STRENGTHENS IN RESPONSE TO A WEAK SOUTHERN-STREAM
UPPER LOW, MOVING EAST-NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS NORTHERN MEXICO AND
EVENTUALLY CROSSING THE RIO GRANDE OVERNIGHT IN THE VICINITY OF THE
BIG BEND.
ELSEWHERE, NORTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL CONTINUE ACROSS NEW ENGLAND, WITH
RIDGING ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST AND INTO THE MIDWEST, AND ACROSS THE
WEST COAST STATES.
...EASTERN NEBRASKA/IOWA...
AS THE WEAKENING UPPER LOW DRIFTS NORTHEASTWARD, ASCENT -- FOCUSED
IN THE VICINITY OF THE SURFACE WARM FRONT EXTENDING EASTWARD FROM
THE MID-MISSOURI VALLEY AND INTO THE MIDWEST, AND THE COLD FRONT
ARCING SOUTHWARD INTO KANSAS -- WILL RESULT IN AN AFTERNOON INCREASE
IN CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT. WHILE A LOCALLY STRONGER STORM OR TWO
MAY OCCUR ACROSS A BROAD AREA IN THE VICINITY OF THE SURFACE
BOUNDARIES, A MORE FOCUSED SEVERE RISK MAY EVOLVE FROM EASTERN
NEBRASKA INTO IOWA. HERE, NEAR AND EAST OF THE WEAK SURFACE LOW, A
SOMEWHAT-MORE-FAVORABLE KINEMATIC ENVIRONMENT COMBINED WITH MODERATE
INSTABILITY SUGGESTS POTENTIAL FOR SUSTAINED/ROTATING UPDRAFTS, AND
ATTENDANT/ALL-HAZARDS SEVERE RISK WITH A FEW OF THE STRONGER STORMS.
PRIMARY RISK SHOULD OCCUR FROM MID AFTERNOON TO MID EVENING.
...RIO GRANDE VALLEY/EDWARDS PLATEAU REGION OF TEXAS...
AS THE MEXICO UPPER LOW APPROACHES SOUTHWESTERN TEXAS INTO THE
SECOND HALF OF THE PERIOD, INCREASING ASCENT WITHIN A MODERATELY
UNSTABLE ENVIRONMENT WILL RESULT IN DEVELOPMENT OF SCATTERED TO
NUMEROUS STORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY AND EDWARDS
PLATEAU REGION. INCREASING FLOW ALOFT SUGGESTS POTENTIAL FOR
SUPERCELLS, AT LEAST INITIALLY, WITH ATTENDANT RISK FOR VERY LARGE
HAIL. DAMAGING WIND GUSTS WOULD BECOME MORE LIKELY WITH TIME, AS
UPSCALE GROWTH INTO A SOUTHEASTWARD-PROPAGATING MCS SEEMS LIKELY AS
A SOUTHEASTERLY LOW-LEVEL JET INTENSIFIES ACROSS SOUTH TEXAS
OVERNIGHT.
...SOUTHWESTERN OKLAHOMA INTO WESTERN NORTH TEXAS AND THE SOUTH
PLAINS REGION...
AS WARM ADVECTION INCREASES THROUGH LATE AFTERNOON, AND PARTICULARLY
INTO THE EVENING ACROSS THIS REGION, THERE ARE HINTS WITHIN SOME
GUIDANCE THAT A CLUSTER OF STORMS MAY DEVELOP ACROSS THIS REGION.
WHILE SHEAR WILL REMAIN SOMEWHAT WEAK, A DEEPLY MIXED BOUNDARY LAYER
MAY SUPPORT POTENTIAL FOR DAMAGING WIND GUSTS, PARTICULARLY IF
ADDITIONAL UPDRAFTS CAN EVOLVE ALONG OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES YIELDING
UPSCALE GROWTH. AT THIS TIME, CONFIDENCE IS RATHER LOW WITH RESPECT
TO THIS EVOLUTION, AND THUS ONLY 5% PROBABILITY WILL BE INCLUDED FOR
THIS AREA.
..GOSS.. 05/10/2023
READ MORE
=#=#=#=#=#=#=#=#=
SPC MAY 10, 2023 DAY 4-8 SEVERE WEATHER OUTLOOK
DAY 4-8 OUTLOOK
DAY 4-8 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0347 AM CDT WED MAY 10 2023
VALID 131200Z - 181200Z
...DISCUSSION...
REMNANT CONVECTION WILL LIKELY BE ONGOING ACROSS PORTIONS OF
SOUTHERN TEXAS SATURDAY MORNING (DAY 4), POSSIBLY ACCOMPANIED
LOCALLY BY SOME WIND POTENTIAL. UNCERTAINTY AS TO EVOLUTION
PRECLUDES INCLUSION OF A RISK AREA AT THIS TIME.
MEANWHILE, AS A BLOCKING PATTERN EVOLVES ACROSS WESTERN NORTH
AMERICA, LITTLE POTENTIAL FOR ORGANIZED SEVERE WEATHER IS EVIDENT --
GIVEN SLACK FLOW ALOFT AND ONLY WEAK CYCLONIC PERTURBATIONS MOVING
THROUGH THE FLOW.
AT THIS TIME, THE MOST LIKELY AREA FOR SOME SEVERE RISK WOULD BE IN
THE EAST, LATER IN THE PERIOD, AS A TROUGH AMPLIFIES IN RESPONSE TO
THE WESTERN RIDGING, AND A BACKDOOR-TYPE COLD FRONT ADVANCES
SOUTHWARD. HOWEVER, THE PREDICTABILITY OF THE OVERALL PATTERN
EVOLUTION APPEARS TO BE LOW, PRECLUDING ANY CONFIDENT ASSESSMENT OF
CONVECTIVE/SEVERE POTENTIAL IN ANY GIVEN AREA THROUGH THE END OF THE
PERIOD.
READ MORE
=#=#=#=#=#=#=#=#=
SPC DAY 1 FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK
SPC DAY 1 FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK
DAY 1 FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0149 AM CDT WED MAY 10 2023
VALID 101200Z - 111200Z
...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AND EASTERN
NEW MEXICO AND FAR SOUTHERN COLORADO....
...SYNOPSIS...
A COMPACT SHORTWAVE TROUGH CENTERED OVER THE SOUTHWEST AND SOUTHERN
ROCKIES WILL BE THE PRIMARY FOCUS THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD.
STRONG FLOW ALOFT WILL AID IN DEEPENING A SURFACE LOW OVER SOUTHERN
CO THAT WILL GREATLY ENHANCE DOWNSLOPE FLOW. WITH DRY AND WARM
CONDITIONS ALSO EXPECTED, WIDESPREAD CRITICAL FIRE-WEATHER
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED OVER MUCH OF NM, SOUTHERN CO AND PORTIONS OF
THE HIGH PLAINS.
...NEW MEXICO, SOUTHERN COLORADO AND THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS...
AS THE TROUGH EJECTS EASTWARD OUT OF THE FOUR CORNERS TODAY, THE
STRONG FLOW ALOFT WILL AID IN DEEPENING A SURFACE LOW OVER SOUTHERN
CO AND NORTHERN NM. THROUGH THE MORNING, STRONG DOWNSLOPE PRESSURE
GRADIENTS AND MIXING FROM THE FLOW ALOFT WILL ENHANCE SURFACE WINDS
OVER MUCH OF CENTRAL NM INTO SOUTHERN CO. WIDESPREAD SUSTAINED WINDS
OF 25-35 MPH ARE POSSIBLE WITH HIGHER GUSTS. DRY SURFACE CONDITIONS
(RH OF 5-15% )SHOULD CONTINUE GIVEN SEVERAL PREVIOUS DAYS OF POOR
OVERNIGHT RECOVERIES. A VERY FAVORABLE CORRIDOR OF CRITICAL
FIRE-WEATHER CONDITIONS IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ACROSS CENTRAL NM AND
SPREAD NORTHWARD INTO SOUTH-CENTRAL CO. LOCAL TERRAIN ENHANCEMENT OF
THE SURFACE WINDS MAY ALSO SUPPORT A FEW HOURS OF SPOTTY EXTREMELY
CRITICAL CONDITIONS.
ACROSS PORTIONS OF EASTERN NM AND THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS, LESS
CONFIDENCE IN SUSTAINED FIRE-WEATHER CONDITIONS EXISTS NEAR A
DIFFUSE DRYLINE. WHILE BREEZY WINDS ARE LIKELY ALONG IT INTO THE
WESTERN PANHANDLES, HIGH-BASED STORMS MAY DEVELOP IN THE AFTERNOON.
A FEW DRIER LIGHTNING STRIKES ARE POSSIBLE WITH RELATIVELY DRY
SUB-CLOUD LAYERS. HOWEVER, THE MORE MARGINAL RH VALUES AND POTENTIAL
FOR SOME PRECIPITATION SHOULD KEEP FIRE-WEATHER CONCERNS LOCALIZED.
..LYONS.. 05/10/2023
...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV/FIRE FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
READ MORE
=#=#=#=#=#=#=#=#=
SPC DAY 2 FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK
SPC DAY 2 FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK
DAY 2 FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0152 AM CDT WED MAY 10 2023
VALID 111200Z - 121200Z
...SYNOPSIS...
AS THE MID-LEVEL TROUGH DEPARTS TO THE EAST, A BELT OF STRONGER
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL LIKELY LINGER OVER PORTIONS OF NM AND THE
SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS THURSDAY. BEHIND A SURFACE LOW AND AHEAD OF A
COLD FRONT SWEEPING EAST FROM THE SOUTHWEST, DOWNSLOPE WINDS AND DRY
SURFACE CONDITIONS MAY SUPPORT ELEVATED TO NEAR-CRITICAL
FIRE-WEATHER CONDITIONS THURSDAY.
...EASTERN NEW MEXICO ONTO THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS...
AS THE MAIN TROUGH SHIFTS EASTWARD, STRONG FLOW OVER THE ROCKIES
WILL DEEPEN A LEE LOW OVER THE TX PANHANDLE. TRAILING THE LOW, A
DRYLINE WILL KEEP WESTERLY SURFACE WINDS BREEZY OVER MUCH OF EASTERN
NM. WINDS SHOULD BE LESS POTENT THAN DAYS PREVIOUS AS FLOW WEAKENS,
BUT RH WILL LIKELY REMAIN NEARLY AS LOW, 10-15%, DURING THE
AFTERNOON. WITH AREA FUELS REMAINING DRY, ELEVATED FIRE-WEATHER
CONDITIONS APPEAR LIKELY THURSDAY AFTERNOON.
THERE REMAINS CONSIDERABLE UNCERTAINTY ON THE EASTERN EXTENT AND
COVERAGE OF ANY CRITICAL FIRE-WEATHER CONDITIONS ABLE TO DEVELOP.
THE STRONGER SURFACE WINDS WILL GRADUALLY WEAKEN FROM THE WEST AS
THE TROUGH DEPARTS. THE BEST OVERLAP WITH LOWER RH AND DRY FUELS
WILL REMAIN TO THE WEST OF THE STRONGEST WINDS THROUGH THE DAY.
HOWEVER, SOME MODEL SOLUTIONS DO SUGGEST POTENTIAL FOR A FEW HOURS
OF NEAR-CRITICAL CONDITIONS ACROSS EASTERN NM, THOUGH UNCERTAINTY IS
HIGH.
..LYONS.. 05/10/2023
...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV/FIRE FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
READ MORE
=#=#=#=#=#=#=#=#=
+----------------------------------------------------------------------------+
HYPERTEXT PREPROCESSOR - DEVELOPED BY LU9DCE - VERSION 3
Read previous mail | Read next mail
| |
