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LU9DCE > ALERT 17.05.23 13:31z 306 Lines 11314 Bytes #999 (0) @ WW
BID : 9918_LU9DCE
Read: GUEST
Subj: STORM PREDICTION CENTER 17-MAY23
Path: HB9ON<IW0QNL<IZ3LSV<I0OJJ<LU4ECL<LU9DCE
Sent: 230517/1201Z 9918@LU9DCE.TOR.BA.ARG.SOAM LinBPQ6.0.23
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PACKET RADIO STATION - BUENOS AIRES (GF05OM)
PHP SCHEDULED NEWSLETTERS (PSN)
COPYRIGHT 2023 - EDUARDO A. CASTILLO
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SPC - NO WATCHES ARE VALID AS OF WED MAY 17 09:44:02 UTC 2023
NO WATCHES ARE VALID AS OF WED MAY 17 09:44:02 UTC 2023.
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SPC - NO MDS ARE IN EFFECT AS OF WED MAY 17 09:44:02 UTC 2023
NO MESOSCALE DISCUSSIONS ARE IN EFFECT AS OF WED MAY 17 09:44:02 UTC 2023.
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SPC MAY 17, 2023 0600 UTC DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
SPC 1200Z DAY 1 OUTLOOK
DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1258 AM CDT WED MAY 17 2023
VALID 171200Z - 181200Z
...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF
THE SOUTHEAST AND HIGH PLAINS...
...SUMMARY...
THUNDERSTORMS WITH MARGINALLY SEVERE WINDS AND HAIL WILL BE POSSIBLE
IN PARTS OF THE SOUTHEAST THIS AFTERNOON. STORMS WITH ISOLATED LARGE
HAIL AND STRONG WIND GUSTS WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE IN PARTS OF THE
HIGH PLAINS LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO EARLY THIS EVENING.
...SOUTHEAST...
WESTERLY FLOW AT MID-LEVELS WILL REMAIN RELATIVELY WEAK TODAY ACROSS
THE SOUTHEAST. AT THE SURFACE, A COLD FRONT WILL ADVANCE SOUTHWARD
ACROSS THE REGION WITH A MOIST AIRMASS LOCATED TO THE SOUTH OF THE
FRONT. SURFACE HEATING ACROSS THIS MOIST AIRMASS WILL LIKELY
CONTRIBUTE THE DEVELOPMENT OF AN EAST-TO-WEST AXIS OF MODERATE
INSTABILITY ACROSS THE CENTRAL GULF COAST STATES BY AFTERNOON.
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL FORM ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE FRONT.
ALTHOUGH MID-LEVEL FLOW WILL BE RELATIVELY WEAK, FORECAST SOUNDINGS
SUGGEST THAT LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL BECOME STEEP DURING THE
EARLY TO MID AFTERNOON. THUNDERSTORMS THAT DEVELOP IN AREAS WHERE
INSTABILITY IS LOCALLY MAXIMIZED NEAR AND AFTER PEAK HEATING COULD
BE ASSOCIATED WITH MARGINALLY SEVERE WIND GUSTS AND HAIL.
...HIGH PLAINS...
AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH WILL MOVE THROUGH THE NORTHERN PLAINS TODAY,
AS MID-LEVEL FLOW REMAINS FROM THE NORTHWEST ACROSS MUCH OF THE
CENTRAL U.S. AT THE SURFACE, A COLD FRONT WILL ADVANCE SOUTHWARD
ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND A LEE TROUGH WILL DEEPEN IN THE
CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS. AS SURFACE TEMPERATURES WARM TODAY, A
NORTH-TO-SOUTH INSTABILITY AXIS IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE
HIGH PLAINS. WIDELY SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL FORM IN THE
VICINITY OF THE INSTABILITY AXIS DURING THE MID TO LATE AFTERNOON.
RAP FORECAST SOUNDINGS NEAR THE INSTABILITY AXIS AT 00Z/THURSDAY
HAVE SURFACE DEWPOINTS MOSTLY IN THE 50S F WITH 0-6 KM SHEAR
GENERALLY BETWEEN 30 AND 35 KNOTS. LAPSE RATES ARE FORECAST TO
BECOME STEEP, ESPECIALLY AT LOW-LEVELS. THIS SHOULD SUPPORT A
MARGINAL THREAT FOR SEVERE WIND GUSTS. ALTHOUGH THE POTENTIAL FOR
SUPERCELLS SHOULD REMAIN ISOLATED, ROTATING UPDRAFTS THAT DEVELOP
COULD CONTAIN LARGE HAIL. THE THREAT WILL LIKELY PERSIST INTO THE
EARLY EVENING WITH STRONGER CONVECTIVE CLUSTERS.
..BROYLES/WEINMAN.. 05/17/2023
READ MORE
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SPC MAY 17, 2023 0600 UTC DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
SPC 0600Z DAY 2 OUTLOOK
DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1256 AM CDT WED MAY 17 2023
VALID 181200Z - 191200Z
...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM OKLAHOMA
SOUTH-SOUTHWESTWARD INTO THE TRANSPECOS REGION OF WESTERN TEXAS...
...SUMMARY...
A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS MAY OCCUR OVER PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN
PLAINS REGION THURSDAY.
...SYNOPSIS...
AN UPPER LOW INITIALLY OVER SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE CANADIAN
PRAIRIE WILL SHIFT SOUTHEASTWARD WITH TIME, CROSSING THE
NORTH-CENTRAL U.S. THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING. AS THIS OCCURS, A
SURFACE COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO ADVANCE SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE
UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY INTO THE UPPER GREAT LAKES REGION, AND
SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE PLAINS STATES. ELSEWHERE, NORTHERN-STREAM
RIDGING ALOFT WILL PREVAIL OVER THE WEST.
...OKLAHOMA SOUTHWESTWARD TO THE TRANSPECOS REGION OF TEXAS...
AS A COLD FRONT ADVANCES SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS AND A
WEAK LOW EVOLVES OVER THE TEXAS SOUTH PLAINS REGION ALONG A SOUTHERN
HIGH PLAINS LEE TROUGH, DAYTIME HEATING OF THE MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER
WILL RESULT IN MIXED-LAYER CAPE VALUES IN THE 1000 TO 2000 J/KG
RANGE TO DEVELOP FROM PARTS OF WESTERN OKLAHOMA SOUTH-SOUTHWESTWARD
TO AREAS NEAR THE TEXAS BIG BEND. DURING THE AFTERNOON, ISOLATED
CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT IS EXPECTED TO OCCUR NEAR THE LEE TROUGH, AND
LATER SHOULD INCREASE IN COVERAGE ACROSS THE OKLAHOMA VICINITY AS
THE FRONT ADVANCES SOUTHWARD, AND EVENTUALLY A 50 KT SOUTHERLY
LOW-LEVEL JET DEVELOPS.
INITIAL/MORE ISOLATED CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT NEAR PEAK HEATING MAY
POSE A LOCAL RISK FOR GUSTY WINDS AND HAIL, THOUGH SOMEWHAT MODEST
SHEAR SHOULD LIMIT OVERALL STORM INTENSITY. DURING THE EVENING, AS
THE LOW-LEVEL JET DEVELOPS, INCREASING LOW-LEVEL FLOW WILL
CONTRIBUTE TO STRONGER LOW-LEVEL AND DEEP-LAYER SHEAR, SUFFICIENT TO
OTHERWISE SUPPORT ROTATING STORMS. HOWEVER, WITH INSTABILITY
DIMINISHING LATER IN THE EVENING, THIS SHOULD SOMEWHAT OFFSET THE
MORE FAVORABLE SHEAR WHICH IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP. ADDITIONALLY,
STORMS WOULD LIKELY GROW UPSCALE RATHER RAPIDLY INTO A CLUSTER/MCS,
WHICH ALSO MAY MITIGATE A MORE ROBUST SUPERCELL SEVERE RISK.
AT THIS TIME, WILL MAINTAIN ONLY MRGL RISK, AS THE DEGREE OF
POTENTIAL FOR ANY ONE SEVERE HAZARD DOES NOT APPEAR PARTICULARLY
NOTABLE AT THIS TIME. STILL, UPGRADE TO SLGT MAY BE REQUIRED IN
LATER OUTLOOKS, AS CUMULATIVE THREAT MAY EVENTUALLY APPEAR
SUFFICIENT TO WARRANT SLIGHTLY HIGHER PROBABILITIES.
...WISCONSIN SOUTHWESTWARD TO NORTHWESTERN KANSAS...
AS THE COLD FRONT ADVANCES SOUTHWARD/SOUTHEASTWARD THROUGH THE DAY,
WEAK DESTABILIZATION IS FORECAST TO OCCUR NEAR THE BOUNDARY, WHERE
DAYTIME HEATING COMBINED WITH MODEST (GENERALLY UPPER 50S DEWPOINTS)
BOUNDARY-LAYER MOISTURE ALLOWS ROUGHLY 500 J/KG MIXED-LAYER CAPE TO
EVOLVE. THIS INSTABILITY WILL LIKELY BE SUFFICIENT TO ALLOW A
BROKEN BAND OF STORMS TO DEVELOP DURING THE AFTERNOON, BUT LIKELY
INSUFFICIENT ENOUGH TO LIMIT STORM INTENSITY OVERALL -- PARTICULARLY
GIVEN ONLY MODESTLY SUFFICIENT SHEAR FOR ORGANIZED UPDRAFTS. AS
SUCH, IT APPEARS THAT ANY SEVERE POTENTIAL SHOULD REMAIN LIMITED
ENOUGH SO AS TO NOT WARRANT INCLUSION OF A MRGL RISK AREA AT THIS
TIME.
..GOSS.. 05/17/2023
READ MORE
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SPC MAY 17, 2023 0730 UTC DAY 3 SEVERE THUNDERSTORM OUTLOOK
SPC 0730Z DAY 3 OUTLOOK
DAY 3 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0228 AM CDT WED MAY 17 2023
VALID 191200Z - 201200Z
...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE CENTRAL
TEXAS VICINITY EAST-NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS ARKANSAS...
...SUMMARY...
STRONG/LOCALLY SEVERE STORMS ARE EXPECTED FRIDAY FROM PARTS OF THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS EASTWARD ACROSS THE ARKANSAS VICINITY.
...SYNOPSIS...
AN UPPER TROUGH IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE PROGRESSING SOUTHEASTWARD
ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES/MIDWEST/CENTRAL PLAINS REGION FRIDAY.
MEANWHILE, PERSISTENT RIDGING IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN OVER THE WEST.
AT THE SURFACE, THE PRIMARY FEATURE OF INTEREST WILL BE A COLD
FRONT, FORECAST TO ADVANCE SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES,
OHIO/MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEYS, AND SOUTHERN PLAINS THROUGH THE
PERIOD.
...PARTS OF OKLAHOMA AND TEXAS EASTWARD ACROSS ARKANSAS...
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE FORECAST TO BE ONGOING ACROSS PARTS OF
OKLAHOMA AND VICINITY EARLY FRIDAY, AHEAD OF THE ADVANCING COLD
FRONT. MEANWHILE, AS THE MOIST WARM-SECTOR BOUNDARY LAYER ACROSS
THE SOUTHERN PLAINS AND EASTWARD TOWARD THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY
DESTABILIZES THROUGH LATE AFTERNOON, AN INCREASE IN STORMS IS
EXPECTED TO BEGIN, WHICH SHOULD THEN CONTINUE THROUGH THE EVENING.
ALONG WITH THE AMPLY UNSTABLE PRE-FRONTAL ENVIRONMENT, MODERATELY
ENHANCED FLOW THROUGH A DEEP LAYER -- AROUND THE BASE OF THE
AFOREMENTIONED UPPER TROUGH -- IS EXPECTED TO SPREAD/RESIDE ATOP THE
WARM SECTOR. AS SUCH, ORGANIZED/LOCALLY SEVERE STORMS ARE EXPECTED
WITHIN THE BROADER AREA OF CONVECTION. HAIL AND LOCALLY DAMAGING
WINDS APPEAR TO BE THE PRIMARY RISKS, WITH THIS POTENTIAL LIKELY TO
CONTINUE THROUGH THE EVENING AND INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS AS STORMS
SPREAD EASTWARD/SOUTHEASTWARD WITH TIME.
..GOSS.. 05/17/2023
READ MORE
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SPC MAY 17, 2023 DAY 4-8 SEVERE WEATHER OUTLOOK
DAY 4-8 OUTLOOK
DAY 4-8 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0441 AM CDT WED MAY 17 2023
VALID 201200Z - 251200Z
...DISCUSSION...
MEDIUM-RANGE MODELS APPEAR TO BE IN REASONABLY GOOD LARGE-SCALE
AGREEMENT ON THE GENERAL UPPER FLOW PATTERN OVER THE U.S. THROUGH
DAY 6. BEYOND THIS TIME, THOUGH MODEL DIFFERENCES INCREASE, IT
NONETHELESS APPEARS THAT LARGE-SCALE/ORGANIZED SEVERE WEATHER
POTENTIAL WILL BE LOW THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD.
IN THE SHORTER TERM, LIMITED SEVERE RISK WILL LIKELY EXIST FROM
PORTIONS OF TEXAS EASTWARD ACROSS THE GULF COAST STATES AND GEORGIA
DAY 4 (SATURDAY), AS A COLD FRONT CONTINUES TO SAG SOUTHWARD TOWARD
THE GULF OF MEXICO. AT THIS TIME HOWEVER, BOTH INSTABILITY AND
SHEAR APPEAR LIKELY TO REMAIN SOMEWHAT LIMITED, WHICH SUGGESTS THAT
STRONGER STORMS SHOULD REMAIN ISOLATED. ONCE THIS FRONT REACHES THE
NORTHERN GULF DAY 5, SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE IS FORECAST TO EXPAND
SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN U.S., AND LIKELY REMAIN
THERE THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD. AS SUCH, OVERALL SEVERE RISK
SHOULD REMAIN LIMITED THROUGH THE PERIOD.
READ MORE
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SPC DAY 1 FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK
SPC DAY 1 FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK
DAY 1 FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0158 AM CDT WED MAY 17 2023
VALID 171200Z - 181200Z
...SYNOPSIS...
WITHIN THE BASE OF A MIDLEVEL TROUGH/LOW OVER QUEBEC, A BELT OF
STRONG DEEP-LAYER WEST-NORTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL OVERSPREAD A DRY
POST-FRONTAL AIR MASS OVER THE NORTHEAST TODAY. MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES
WILL SUPPORT MODEST BOUNDARY-LAYER MIXING INTO THE STRONG FLOW ALOFT
-- YIELDING 10-15 MPH SUSTAINED NORTHWESTERLY SURFACE WINDS (WITH
HIGHER GUSTS) AMID 20-30 PERCENT RH DURING THE AFTERNOON. THE BEST
OVERLAP OF BREEZY/GUSTY SURFACE WINDS AND LOW RH ATOP DRY FUELS
SHOULD DEVELOP FROM SOUTHERN ME/NH SOUTHWARD INTO PARTS OF SOUTHERN
NJ -- WHERE ELEVATED FIRE-WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED.
..WEINMAN.. 05/17/2023
...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV/FIRE FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
READ MORE
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SPC DAY 2 FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK
SPC DAY 2 FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK
DAY 2 FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0158 AM CDT WED MAY 17 2023
VALID 181200Z - 191200Z
...NO CRITICAL AREAS...
...SYNOPSIS...
THE OVERLAP OF BREEZY SURFACE WINDS AND LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY OVER
DRY FUELS SHOULD BE MINIMAL ON DAY 2/THURSDAY -- GENERALLY LIMITING
THE FIRE-WEATHER RISK.
..WEINMAN.. 05/17/2023
...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV/FIRE FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
READ MORE
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