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LU9DCE > ALERT 18.05.23 14:10z 187 Lines 7168 Bytes #999 (0) @ WW
BID : 9958_LU9DCE
Read: GUEST
Subj: STORM PREDICTION CENTER 18-MAY23
Path: HB9ON<IW0QNL<IZ3LSV<I0OJJ<LU4ECL<LU9DCE
Sent: 230518/1201Z 9958@LU9DCE.TOR.BA.ARG.SOAM LinBPQ6.0.23
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PACKET RADIO STATION - BUENOS AIRES (GF05OM)
PHP SCHEDULED NEWSLETTERS (PSN)
COPYRIGHT 2023 - EDUARDO A. CASTILLO
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SPC - NO WATCHES ARE VALID AS OF THU MAY 18 09:58:02 UTC 2023
NO WATCHES ARE VALID AS OF THU MAY 18 09:58:02 UTC 2023.
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SPC - NO MDS ARE IN EFFECT AS OF THU MAY 18 09:58:02 UTC 2023
NO MESOSCALE DISCUSSIONS ARE IN EFFECT AS OF THU MAY 18 09:58:02 UTC 2023.
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SPC MAY 18, 2023 0600 UTC DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
SPC 0600Z DAY 2 OUTLOOK
DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0100 AM CDT THU MAY 18 2023
VALID 191200Z - 201200Z
...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE SOUTHERN
PLAINS TO WESTERN TENNESSEE...
...SUMMARY...
STRONG/LOCALLY SEVERE STORMS ARE EXPECTED FRIDAY FROM PARTS OF THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS EASTWARD ACROSS ARKANSAS TO THE TENNESSEE VALLEY
VICINITY.
...SOUTHERN PLAINS EAST-NORTHEASTWARD TO THE TENNESSEE VALLEY...
AS A NORTH-CENTRAL U.S. MID-LEVEL TROUGH SHIFTS SOUTHEASTWARD
FRIDAY, A COLD FRONT STRETCHING FROM THE GREAT LAKES REGION TO THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS EARLY IN THE PERIOD WILL ADVANCE STEADILY
SOUTHEASTWARD.
AHEAD OF THE FRONT OVER THE SOUTH-CENTRAL U.S., A HIGH THETA-E
WARM-SECTOR AIRMASS WILL REMAIN IN PLACE. WHILE
WARM-ADVECTION-INDUCED STORMS MAY BE ONGOING ACROSS THE
OKLAHOMA/ARKANSAS EARLY IN THE PERIOD, AREAS NEAR AND SOUTH OF THE
CONVECTION WILL HEAT STEADILY THROUGH THE AFTERNOON, RESULTING IN
MODERATE DESTABILIZATION AHEAD OF THE BOUNDARY.
AS A RESULT, STORMS ARE FORECAST TO DEVELOP NEAR THE FRONT BY
MID-AFTERNOON. WHILE NOT EXCESSIVE, MODERATE MID-LEVEL WESTERLY
FLOW ATOP THE WARM SECTOR WILL CONTRIBUTE TO SHEAR SUFFICIENT FOR
ORGANIZED UPDRAFTS, LIKELY RESULTING IN MIXED-MODE CONVECTION
FEATURING BOTH ROTATING STORMS, AND CLUSTERS/BANDS OF STRONG/LOCALLY
SEVERE CONVECTION. WHILE LOW-LEVEL FLOW IS FORECAST TO BE
RELATIVELY WEAK IN GENERAL, WHICH WILL LIMIT TORNADO POTENTIAL, HAIL
AND DAMAGING WINDS ARE EXPECTED WITH STRONGER STORMS/CLUSTERS. THIS
RISK WILL SPREAD EASTWARD TOWARD THE MID-MISSISSIPPI VALLEY, AND
SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS TEXAS, INTO THE EVENING, WITH SEVERE RISK
GRADUALLY TAPERING INTO THE LATE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT HOURS.
..GOSS.. 05/18/2023
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SPC MAY 18, 2023 0730 UTC DAY 3 SEVERE THUNDERSTORM OUTLOOK
SPC 0730Z DAY 3 OUTLOOK
DAY 3 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0227 AM CDT THU MAY 18 2023
VALID 201200Z - 211200Z
...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM PORTIONS OF
EASTERN TEXAS EASTWARD INTO GEORGIA...
...SUMMARY...
LOCAL/LIMITED SEVERE RISK IS EVIDENT FOR SATURDAY, PRIMARILY ACROSS
THE CENTRAL GULF COAST STATES AND GEORGIA.
...PORTIONS OF EASTERN TEXAS TO GEORGIA...
A COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE ADVANCING SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE
SOUTH-CENTRAL AND SOUTHEASTERN U.S. SATURDAY, AS AN UPPER TROUGH
CONTINUES PROGRESSING ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF THE COUNTRY.
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS, AND ASSOCIATED CLOUD COVER, ARE FORECAST
ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE RISK AREA EARLY IN THE PERIOD, NEAR AND AHEAD
OF THE FRONT. AS A RESULT, RATHER WEAK MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND
TEMPERED HEATING IN MANY AREAS SHOULD TEMPER AFTERNOON
DESTABILIZATION. STILL, A DIURNAL MAXIMIZATION OF STORM
COVERAGE/INTENSITY IS EXPECTED, AS THE FRONT ADVANCES ACROSS THE
GULF COAST STATES AND SOUTHEAST.
MODERATE WEST-NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT ACROSS THE AREA SUGGESTS
POTENTIAL FOR BAND OF STORMS TO ORGANIZE, AND SHIFT
EAST-SOUTHEASTWARD WITH TIME, ACCOMPANIED BY LOCAL RISK FOR DAMAGING
WINDS. AT THIS TIME, PERCEIVED LACK OF MORE ROBUST CAPE SUGGESTS
LIMITED RISK, BUT POTENTIAL WILL NEED TO BE REEVALUATED IN FUTURE
OUTLOOK UPDATES AS IT PERTAINS TO THE POSSIBILITY OF A MORE UNSTABLE
AFTERNOON WARM SECTOR.
FARTHER WEST, ACROSS PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN TEXAS AND INTO SOUTHERN
NEW MEXICO, STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP DURING THE AFTERNOON AS
DAYTIME HEATING OF THE POST-FRONTAL AIRMASS RESULTS IN MODEST CAPE
ATOP A DEEP SURFACE-BASED MIXED LAYER. WHILE RATHER WEAK FLOW ALOFT
SUGGESTS A LACK OF STORM ORGANIZATION OVERALL, A COUPLE OF STRONGER
STORMS COULD PRODUCE GUSTY WINDS, AIDED BY SUB-CLOUD EVAPORATIVE
EFFECTS. AT THIS TIME HOWEVER, THREAT DOES NOT APPEAR GREAT ENOUGH
TO WARRANT MRGL RISK.
..GOSS.. 05/18/2023
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SPC MAY 18, 2023 DAY 4-8 SEVERE WEATHER OUTLOOK
DAY 4-8 OUTLOOK
DAY 4-8 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0400 AM CDT THU MAY 18 2023
VALID 211200Z - 261200Z
...DISCUSSION...
MEDIUM-RANGE MODELS ARE IN GENERAL AGREEMENT REGARDING EVOLUTION OF
THE SYNOPTIC PATTERN OVER THE U.S. THROUGH THE MEDIUM RANGE.
AS AN UPPER TROUGH PROGRESSES ACROSS THE EASTERN U.S. EARLY NEXT
WEEK, A SECOND TROUGH IS FORECAST TO EXPAND GRADUALLY OVER THE WEST,
AND LINGER THERE THROUGH THE PERIOD. DOWNSTREAM, IN THE WAKE OF THE
DEPARTING EASTERN TROUGH, RIDGING WILL BECOME ESTABLISHED.
AS THE EASTERN TROUGH PROGRESSES, A SURFACE COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE
MOVING EASTWARD ACROSS THE WESTERN ATLANTIC, AND SOUTHWARD INTO THE
GULF, WITH A STOUT AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE EXPANDING ACROSS THE
EASTERN TWO-THIRDS OF THE COUNTRY IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT. THIS
AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEREFORE LARGELY KEEP HIGHER THETA-E AIR
CONFINED TO THE FAR SOUTHERN U.S. -- I.E. TEXAS AND FLORIDA --
THROUGH THE PERIOD.
GREATEST SEVERE-WEATHER POTENTIAL WILL LIKELY RESIDE OVER THE HIGH
PLAINS, EVOLVING DAY 5 TO 6, AND THEN LINGERING THERE WITH A NOTED
DIURNAL (AFTERNOON/EVENING) PEAK. THIS WILL OCCUR AS MODEST
MOISTURE LEAKS NORTHWARD ACROSS THE HIGH PLAINS ON SOUTHERLY FLOW ON
THE BACK SIDE OF THE BROAD AREA OF SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE. WITH WEAK
WESTERLY/SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT ACROSS THE ROCKIES, A LEE TROUGH
WILL LIKELY BE MAINTAINED. AS SUCH, SUBTLE DISTURBANCES IN THE FLOW
ALOFT WILL LIKELY FOCUS FAVORED AREAS ALONG THE LEE TROUGH FOR
AFTERNOON CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT, THAT WOULD THEN TEND TO PROGRESS
SOUTHEASTWARD GIVEN THE LOW-LEVEL SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW REGIME. WITH
ELEVATED MIXED-LAYER AIR/STEEP LAPSE RATES IN PLACE, MODEST
INSTABILITY, AND A WIND PROFILE VEERING FROM SOUTHEASTERLY TO
SOUTHWESTERLY WITH HEIGHT AND A NOCTURNAL LOW-LEVEL JET EVOLVING
EACH EVENING, IT WOULD APPEAR THAT CLUSTERS OF STRONG/SEVERE STORMS
WILL BE POSSIBLE EACH AFTERNOON WHICH WOULD THEN SPREAD
SOUTHEASTWARD TOWARD LOWER ELEVATIONS.
WITH THAT SAID, PICKING OUT AREAS/DAYS WHERE RISK MAY BE GREATER
THAN THE BACKGROUND LOW-LEVEL THREAT IS DIFFICULT, GIVEN THE SUBTLE
FORCING, AND THUS NO RISK AREAS WILL BE INCLUDED AT THIS TIME.
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