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LU9DCE > ALERT 13.05.19 07:05z 165 Lines 8917 Bytes #999 (0) @ WW
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SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1231
AM CDT Mon May 13 2019
Valid 131200Z - 141200Z
...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PORTIONS OF
SOUTHWEST TEXAS...
...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms capable of producing large hail and
wind damage will be possible this afternoon and evening across parts
of the southern Plains. A few storms with marginally severe wind
gusts will be possible across parts of the north-central Florida
Peninsula during the afternoon.
...West through south Texas and a small part of southeastern New
Mexico... A weakening mid-level low will migrate from northwestern
Mexico toward the Big Bend area of Texas through the day. On the
southern periphery of this low, moderately strong westerly mid-level
flow (30-45 kts) will extend across portions of south Texas. Beneath
this flow, weak southeasterly surface winds will persist through
much of the day, maintaining upper 50s to low 60s dewpoints beneath
modestly steep (7-8 deg C/km) mid-level lapse rates. The resulting
instability and shear should result in a loosely organized cluster
of storms developing initially across the Transpecos and vicinity.
A few of these storms may grow upscale and spread southeastward
along the Rio Grande Valley amidst weak low-level flow and merging
cold pools. Hail and damaging wind gusts appear to be the main
threats with this activity, though severity should wane some
with eastward extent due to weakening boundary-layer buoyancy.
Storms should reach the middle Texas Gulf Coast overnight should
they grow upscale as depicted in a few of the CAMs.
...Northern/central Florida and extreme southern Georgia...
Scattered to numerous storms should be ongoing across north
Florida and extreme southern Georgia as lift associated with 1) an
upper-level jet traversing the central Gulf of Mexico and 2) grazing
influence of a mid-level trough over the Appalachian Mountains
occurs within a weakly unstable and uncapped airmass. Through the
day, surface heating on the southern periphery of the storms should
gradually result in an increased convective intensity, with numerous
storms expected to develop southward from northern into central
Florida throughout the day. Given strong deep shear, moderate
instability, and steepening low-level lapse rates throughout the
day, it appears that a few storms will likely produce damaging wind
gusts and perhaps hail during the afternoon. A small Slight risk
area may need to be introduced in later outlooks pending evolution
of early day convection - most likely in northeastern Florida.
..Cook/Karstens.. 05/13/2019
SPC 0600Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1137
PM CDT Sun May 12 2019
Valid 141200Z - 151200Z
...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...
...SUMMARY... A few strong storms are possible across parts of
Missouri, and possibly over Nebraska Tuesday afternoon and evening,
otherwise severe weather is not anticipated.
...Synopsis and Discussion... An upper low will remain over the
Northeast with the large-scale upper trough axis moving rapidly east
off the Mid Atlantic coast. Height rises aloft will follow, with
stable conditions over most of the eastern states with high pressure.
Weak moisture return will occur across the Plains as an upper ridge
moves eastward across the Rockies. Northwest flow aloft will stretch
from the northern Plains into the mid MS and lower OH Valleys, with
areas of lift via warm advection and southwesterly 850 mb flow.
Elevated instability will develop across much of MO, and scattered
southeastward-moving storms are possible mainly during the evening.
With cold temperatures aloft, some of this activity could contain
hail. Low severe probabilities may need to be added in later outlooks
when predictability is greater.
Farther west, strong heating will occur over the High Plains,
and instability will increase over KS and NE. Confidence is lower
than in previous forecasts for storm initiation in this area, but
conditionally, marginal hail is possible should afternoon/evening
storms develop near a weak surface trough.
...MAXIMUM RISK BY HAZARD... Tornado: <2% - None Wind: <5%
- None Hail: <5% - None
..Jewell.. 05/13/2019
SPC 0730Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1155
PM CDT Sun May 12 2019
Valid 151200Z - 161200Z
...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...
...SUMMARY... Severe weather is unlikely on Wednesday.
...Synopsis... An upper ridge will encompass much of the central
U.S. with a trough over the Northeast and an amplifying trough over
the West. At the surface, high pressure will gradually weaken over
the Southeast, with a slow veering of low-level wind trajectories
over the Gulf of Mexico. This will result in slow moisture return,
mainly into TX. While it will become unstable over parts of
the Plains, little thunderstorm activity is expected beneath the
upper ridge.
Scattered storms are possible during the day across southern MO and
AR, beneath northwest flow aloft and where modest instability will
develop. There is no support for any organized severe threat, but
an isolated strong wind gust or marginal hail cannot be ruled out.
A shortwave trough is expected to flatten the ridge Wednesday night
over parts of ND and MN, with a cold front providing a focus for
storms. Mainly elevated instability will exist, supporting at least
small hail.
Elsewhere, precipitation chances will increase across CA, WA and OR
in association with the upper trough, but little if any instability
will be present to support thunderstorms.
..Jewell.. 05/13/2019
SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0111 AM CDT Mon May 13 2019
Valid 131200Z - 141200Z
...NO CRITICAL AREAS...
...Synopsis... A deep-layer upper-level trough located over the
Ohio Valley will lift northeast into parts of New England. Meanwhile
farther west, an upper-level ridge will build into the West with
only marginal westerly mid-level flow (30-40 kt) overspreading
portions of the upper Great Basin into the northern Rockies. At
the surface, light winds will prevail across much of the CONUS as
weak high pressure settles into the lower Great Basin and central
Rockies. Perhaps some areas of locally elevated fire-weather
conditions may develop during the afternoon hours across portions of
Montana, where diurnal heating and vertical mixing allows RH values
to fall into the upper teens and lower 20s amidst fine fuels that
remain somewhat receptive. However, widespread elevated fire-weather
conditions are not expected, precluding the introduction of any
highlights at this time.
..Karstens.. 05/13/2019
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...
SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0112 AM CDT Mon May 13 2019
Valid 141200Z - 151200Z
...NO CRITICAL AREAS...
...Synopsis... An upper-level ridge will continue building into
the West and become the predominant upper-level feature over the
CONUS. A continuation of only marginal southwesterly mid-level flow
(30-40 kt) will remain over the upper Great Basin/northern Rockies
into portions of northern California. At the surface, high pressure
will remain in place across the lower Great Basin into the central
Rockies, with generally light surface winds prevailing aside from
some breezy southwesterly winds developing during the afternoon
across portions of northern California/Nevada and southern Oregon
beneath the aforementioned mid-level flow. However, fuels in this
region remain generally unreceptive to large-fire spread, thus no
highlights have been introduced at this time.
..Karstens.. 05/13/2019
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...
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To err is human, To purr feline.
-- Robert Byrne
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