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LU9DCE > ALERT 23.06.23 18:51z 341 Lines 13622 Bytes #999 (0) @ WW
BID : 2646_LU9DCE
Read: GUEST
Subj: STORM PREDICTION CENTER 17-JUN23
Path: HB9ON<IW0QNL<IZ3LSV<I0OJJ<LU4ECL<LU9DCE
Sent: 230617/1200Z 2646@LU9DCE.TOR.BA.ARG.SOAM BPQK6.0.23
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PACKET RADIO STATION - BUENOS AIRES (GF05OM)
PHP SCHEDULED NEWSLETTERS (PSN)
COPYRIGHT 2023 - EDUARDO A. CASTILLO
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SPC - NO WATCHES ARE VALID AS OF SAT JUN 17 08:00:02 UTC 2023
NO WATCHES ARE VALID AS OF SAT JUN 17 08:00:02 UTC 2023.
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SPC - NO MDS ARE IN EFFECT AS OF SAT JUN 17 08:00:02 UTC 2023
NO MESOSCALE DISCUSSIONS ARE IN EFFECT AS OF SAT JUN 17 08:00:02 UTC 2023.
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SPC JUN 17, 2023 0600 UTC DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
SPC 1200Z DAY 1 OUTLOOK
DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0100 AM CDT SAT JUN 17 2023
VALID 171200Z - 181200Z
...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF
THE SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL PLAINS...
...SUMMARY...
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ASSOCIATED WITH DAMAGING WIND GUSTS AND LARGE
HAIL ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL PLAINS. WIND GUSTS ABOVE 70 KNOTS AND
HAILSTONES GREATER THAN 2 INCHES IN DIAMETER WILL BE POSSIBLE. THE
SEVERE THREAT COULD REACH THE ARK-LA-TEX AFTER MIDNIGHT. ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE ALSO EXPECTED IN FLORIDA, AND
ALONG PARTS OF THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN GULF COAST.
...CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PLAINS...
A SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL MOVE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL ROCKIES
TODAY TOWARDS A MOIST AND UNSTABLE AIRMASS IN THE SOUTHERN AND
CENTRAL PLAINS. AT THE SURFACE, A LOW WILL DEEPEN IN WEST TEXAS NEAR
A DRYLINE THAT WILL EXTEND NORTHWARD INTO EASTERN COLORADO.
LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE WILL INCREASE ALONG THE DRYLINE AS SURFACE
TEMPERATURES WARM DURING THE DAY. THIS SHOULD RESULT IN CONVECTIVE
INITIATION IN THE VICINITY OF THE PALMER DIVIDE DURING THE EARLY
AFTERNOON. THE CONVECTION IS FORECAST TO EXPAND IN COVERAGE, AND
DEVELOP INTO AN MCS DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. THE
MCS IS FORECAST TO TRACK EAST-SOUTHEASTWARD FROM SOUTHEAST COLORADO
INTO SOUTHERN KANSAS AND OKLAHOMA.
A 45 TO 60 KNOT MID-LEVEL JET ASSOCIATED WITH THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH,
IS FORECAST TO MOVE EASTWARD INTO THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS TODAY.
AHEAD OF THIS FEATURE, A MOIST AND VERY UNSTABLE AIRMASS WILL BE IN
PLACE FORM THE TEXAS PANHANDLE EXTENDING EAST-SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS
MUCH OF OKLAHOMA AND NORTHEAST TEXAS. SURFACE DEWPOINTS FROM THE MID
60S TO LOWER 70S F WILL CONTRIBUTE TO MODERATE TO STRONG INSTABILITY
BY AFTERNOON, WITH MLCAPE LIKELY REACHING THE 3000 TO 5000 J/KG
RANGE. IN ADDITION TO AN IMPRESSIVE THERMODYNAMIC ENVIRONMENT,
KINEMATICS WILL IMPROVE DURING THE DAY AS THE MID-LEVEL JET
APPROACHES. BY LATE AFTERNOON, RAP FORECAST SOUNDINGS ALONG THE
TRACK OF THE EXPECTED MCS HAVE SUPERCELL WIND PROFILES, WITH 0-6 KM
SHEAR AROUND 50 KNOTS. THIS, COMBINED WITH 700-500 MB LAPSE RATES
NEAR 8.0 C/KM WILL BE VERY FAVORABLE FOR LARGE HAIL. HAILSTONES OF
GREATER THAN 2 INCHES IN DIAMETER WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THE MORE
INTENSE SUPERCELLS, ASSOCIATED WITH DISCRETE CELLS THAT DEVELOP
AHEAD OF THE TRACK OF THE MCS. A TORNADO, WIND-DAMAGE AND HAIL
THREAT IS ALSO EXPECTED TO DEVELOP WITH SUPERCELLS EMBEDDED WITHIN
THE MCS. THE GREATEST TORNADO THREAT IS FORECAST IN NORTHWEST
OKLAHOMA, WHERE LOW-LEVEL SHEAR WILL STEADILY RAMP UP DURING THE
EARLY TO MID EVENING.
AS THE MCS ORGANIZES AND MOVES SOUTHEASTWARD INTO THE STRONG
INSTABILITY, SUPERCELLS AND BOWING LINE SEGMENTS ARE EXPECTED. THE
WIND-DAMAGE POTENTIAL WILL LIKELY INCREASE DURING THE EARLY TO MID
EVENING AS THE MCS ACCELERATES EAST-SOUTHEASTWARD IN THE SOUTHERN
PLAINS. WIND GUSTS ABOVE 70 KNOTS WILL BECOME POSSIBLE WITH CELLS
NEAR THE LEADING EDGE OF THE MCS DURING THE EVENING. THE LINEAR MCS
IS EXPECTED TO MOVE ACROSS CENTRAL OKLAHOMA BY LATE EVENING, AND
COULD REACH THE WESTERN OZARKS OR ARK-LA-TEX DURING THE OVERNIGHT
PERIOD.
...CENTRAL AND EASTERN GULF COAST INTO FLORIDA...
AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH WILL MOVE SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE EASTERN
GULF COAST STATES TODAY. AT THE SURFACE, A MOIST AIRMASS WILL BE IN
PLACE FROM THE CENTRAL GULF COAST EASTWARD TO FLORIDA WHERE
DEWPOINTS WILL BE FROM THE UPPER 60S TO THE MID 70S F. IT APPEARS
THAT AN OUTFLOW BOUNDARY WILL BE IN PLACE IN SOUTHERN MISSISSIPPI
AND SOUTHERN ALABAMA, WHERE LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE WILL BECOME
MAXIMIZED DURING THE DAY. AS SURFACE TEMPERATURES WARM NEAR THIS
BOUNDARY, THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO FORM AROUND MIDDAY. THESE
STORMS WILL MOVE SOUTHEASTWARD TOWARD THE IMMEDIATE COASTAL AREAS
WITH A SEVERE THREAT LIKELY DEVELOPING. RAP FORECAST SOUNDINGS THIS
AFTERNOON FROM BILOXI, MISSISSIPPI EASTWARD INTO THE FLORIDA
PANHANDLE HAVE MLCAPE PEAKING IN THE 3000 TO 4000 J/KG RANGE, WITH
STEEP LAPSE RATES BETWEEN 700 AND 500 MB. THIS, COMBINED WITH 0-6 KM
SHEAR IN THE 40 TO 50 KNOT RANGE SHOULD SUPPORT SUPERCELL
DEVELOPMENT WITH ISOLATED LARGE HAIL. HAILSTONES OF GREATER THAN 2
INCHES IN DIAMETER WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THE MORE INTENSE CELLS. A
WIND-DAMAGE THREAT WILL ALSO BE LIKELY.
FURTHER EAST ACROSS FLORIDA, A MOIST AIRMASS WILL BE IN PLACE WITH
SURFACE DEWPOINTS IN THE 70S F. THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT WILL TAKE
PLACE ALONG SEA-BREEZE BOUNDARIES AS TEMPERATURES WARM DURING THE
DAY. A FEW THUNDERSTORMS WILL ALSO DEVELOP FURTHER INLAND. RAP
FORECAST SOUNDINGS IN CENTRAL FLORIDA HAVE MLCAPE PEAKING AROUND
3000 J/KG, WITH 0-6 M SHEAR IN THE 30 TO 35 KNOT RANGE. THIS,
COMBINED WITH STEEP LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES SHOULD BE ENOUGH FOR AN
ISOLATED WIND-DAMAGE THREAT. HAIL WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE WITH THE
STRONGER CELLS.
..BROYLES/JIRAK.. 06/17/2023
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SPC JUN 17, 2023 0600 UTC DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
SPC 0600Z DAY 2 OUTLOOK
DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1243 AM CDT SAT JUN 17 2023
VALID 181200Z - 191200Z
...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS
SOUTHERN/CENTRAL ARKANSAS...NORTHERN LOUISIANA...MUCH OF MISSISSIPPI
AND SOUTHWEST ALABAMA...
...SUMMARY...
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED ON SUNDAY FROM PORTIONS OF THE
OZARKS TO THE CENTRAL GULF COAST STATES. DAMAGING GUSTS WILL BE THE
MAIN HAZARD WITH THESE STORMS, THOUGH ISOLATED LARGE TO VERY LARGE
HAIL ALSO IS POSSIBLE.
...ARKLATEX VICINITY TO THE CENTRAL GULF COAST...
A FEW MIDLEVEL SHORTWAVE IMPULSES WILL BE THE FOCUS FOR SEVERE
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY FROM THE ARKLATEX VICINITY TO THE CENTRAL GULF
COAST AND PARTS OF THE FL PENINSULA ON SUNDAY. ONE WAVE WILL BE
LOCATED OVER THE FL PENINSULA DURING THE MORNING. A CLUSTER OR LINE
OF SOUTHWARD-PROPAGATING CONVECTION OVER THE CENTRAL PENINSULA MAY
BE ONGOING AT THE BEGINNING OF THE PERIOD, POSING MAINLY A RISK FOR
SPORADIC STRONG GUSTS GIVEN STRONG INSTABILITY, STEEP MIDLEVEL LAPSE
RATES AND A HIGH PW AIRMASS.
ANOTHER CONVECTIVELY ENHANCED IMPULSE IS FORECAST ACROSS
SOUTHERN/COASTAL MS/AL SUNDAY MORNING. CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH
THIS ACTIVITY WILL QUICKLY SHIFT OFFSHORE BY MID-MORNING, AS IT
TRACKS SOUTHEAST ALONG THE MARINE FRONT AND NARROW ZONE OF WEAK
INHIBITION ALONG AN AXIS OF STRONG INSTABILITY.
SOUTHERLY LOW-LEVEL FLOW THROUGH THE DAY WILL MAINTAIN UPPER 60S TO
LOW 70S DEWPOINTS ACROSS THE CENTRAL GULF COAST/LOWER MS VALLEY
AHEAD OF THE MAIN MID/UPPER SHORTWAVE TROUGH, WHICH IS FORECAST TO
BE OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS SUNDAY MORNING. AN ADDITIONAL CLUSTER OR
BOWING SEGMENT (A CONTINUATION OF OVERNIGHT STORMS FROM THE DAY
1/SAT PERIOD) IS FORECAST TO BE ONGOING OVER EASTERN OK AT THE START
OF THE PERIOD. THIS ACTIVITY MAY BE STRONG TO SEVERE, AND IS
FORECAST TO SHIFT EAST/SOUTHEAST ALONG AN INSTABILITY GRADIENT
ORIENTED NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST FROM AR TOWARD SOUTHERN MS/AL. EARLY
CAPPING OVER THE REGION IS EXPECTED TO ERODE AS INCREASING
LARGE-SCALE ASCENT, AND WARM ADVECTION AHEAD OF THE SHORTWAVE
TROUGH, OVERSPREADS THE REGION. ONE OR MORE BOWING CLUSTERS OF
STORMS IS EXPECTED THROUGH THE MORNING AND INTO THE
AFTERNOON/EVENING. THIS WILL RESULT IN SWATHS OF
STRONG/SEVERE/DAMAGING GUSTS. GIVEN LARGE INSTABILITY AND STEEP
MIDLEVEL LAPSE RATES AMID STRONG VERTICAL SHEAR, WIDELY SCATTERED
LARGE TO ISOLATED VERY LARGE HAIL ALSO WILL BE POSSIBLE.
..LEITMAN.. 06/17/2023
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SPC JUN 17, 2023 0730 UTC DAY 3 SEVERE THUNDERSTORM OUTLOOK
SPC 0730Z DAY 3 OUTLOOK
DAY 3 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0206 AM CDT SAT JUN 17 2023
VALID 191200Z - 201200Z
...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF
THE CENTRAL GULF COAST STATES AND SOUTHEAST...
...SUMMARY...
AT LEAST AN ISOLATED RISK FOR DAMAGING GUSTS AND HAIL IS EXPECTED
ACROSS PARTS OF THE CENTRAL GULF COAST/SOUTHEAST ON MONDAY.
...SYNOPSIS AND DISCUSSION...
AN UPPER RIDGE IS FORECAST TO BUILD OVER THE PLAINS AND UPPER
MIDWEST ON MONDAY. THE UPPER RIDGE WILL BE FLANKED ON THE EAST BY AN
UPPER TROUGH/LOW CENTERED OVER THE OH/TN VALLEY TO THE GULF COAST,
AND ON THE WEST BY A DEVELOPING LARGE-SCALE UPPER TROUGH OVER THE
WEST. DEEP-LAYER FLOW IS EXPECTED TO BE WEAKER ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST
COMPARED TO PRIOR DAYS LEADING UP TO MONDAY, BUT NORTHWESTERLY
MID/UPPER FLOW ATOP SOUTHERLY LOW-LEVEL FLOW WILL PROVIDE SUFFICIENT
VERTICAL SHEAR FOR SOME ORGANIZED CONVECTION.
AT THE SURFACE, LOW PRESSURE OVER WESTERN KY/TN IS EXPECTED TO DRIFT
EAST THROUGH THE PERIOD. AS THIS OCCURS, A WEAK SURFACE BOUNDARY
WILL SAG SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE TN VALLEY VICINITY. A VERY MOIST
AIRMASS, CHARACTERIZED BY UPPER 60S TO LOW 70S F DEWPOINTS, WILL
REMAIN IN PLACE ACROSS THE CENTRAL GULF COAST/SOUTHEAST. STRONG
INSTABILITY COUPLED WITH MODEST VERTICAL SHEAR WILL SUPPORT AT LEAST
ISOLATED STRONG/SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL. DAMAGING GUSTS AND
HAIL WILL BE THE MAIN HAZARDS WITH CONVECTION ON MONDAY ACROSS
PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL GULF COAST STATES INTO GA.
..LEITMAN.. 06/17/2023
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SPC JUN 17, 2023 DAY 4-8 SEVERE WEATHER OUTLOOK
DAY 4-8 OUTLOOK
DAY 4-8 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0256 AM CDT SAT JUN 17 2023
VALID 201200Z - 251200Z
...DISCUSSION...
SOME SEVERE POTENTIAL COULD LINGER ACROSS PARTS OF THE GULF COAST ON
DAY 4/TUE WHERE MODERATE NORTHWEST DEEP-LAYER FLOW WILL COINCIDE
WITH A STRONG INSTABILITY GRADIENT. CONFIDENCE IN THE EVOLUTION OF
SEVERE POTENTIAL FROM SOUTHEAST TX THROUGH LA IS LOW GIVEN MULTIPLE
DAYS OF CONVECTION PRIOR TO TUESDAY. OTHERWISE, AN UPPER RIDGE OVER
THE SOUTHERN/CENTRAL PLAINS TO THE UPPER MIDWEST/GREAT LAKES WILL
PERSIST THROUGH AT LEAST DAY 5/WED. THIS WILL SUPPORT TRANSPORT OF
BOUNDARY-LAYER MOISTURE NORTHWARD INTO THE CENTRAL/NORTHERN PLAINS.
PERIODS OF STRONG SOUTHWESTERLY MID/UPPER FLOW ON THE EASTERN
PERIPHERY OF A WESTERN U.S. UPPER TROUGH WILL IMPINGE ON THE
CENTRAL/NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS THROUGH AROUND DAY 6/THU. THIS COULD
SUPPORT SEVERE POTENTIAL FROM WESTERN NE NORTHEAST INTO THE WESTERN
DAKOTAS AND VICINITY. HOWEVER, CONFIDENCE IN LOCATION AND EXTENT OF
SEVERE POTENTIAL IS LOW, AS ILL-TIMED SHORTWAVE IMPULSES MAY RESULT
IN STRONGER FORCING FOR ASCENT, AND BETTER VERTICAL SHEAR, BEING
DISPLACED FROM QUALITY BOUNDARY-LAYER MOISTURE/INSTABILITY. FORECAST
GUIDANCE DEPICTS A WEAKER FLOW REGIME BY THE END OF THE PERIOD, AND
CONFIDENCE IS LOW REGARDING SEVERE POTENTIAL HEADED INTO NEXT
WEEKEND.
READ MORE
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SPC DAY 1 FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK
SPC DAY 1 FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK
DAY 1 FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0159 AM CDT SAT JUN 17 2023
VALID 171200Z - 181200Z
...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR FAR SOUTHEASTERN ARIZONA INTO
CENTRAL NEW MEXICO...
...SYNOPSIS...
A MIDLEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS FORECAST TO MOVE ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN/CENTRAL ROCKIES TODAY WITH AN ENHANCED BELT OF WESTERLY
FLOW ALOFT. AT THE SURFACE, A LOW-PRESSURE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO
DEEPEN IN EASTERN NEW MEXICO BY THE AFTERNOON, RESULTING IN STRONG
WESTERLY SURFACE WINDS ACROSS MOST OF NEW MEXICO. A PERSISTENT, DRY
AIRMASS ACROSS THE REGION IS EXPECTED TO YIELD AFTERNOON RH VALUES
IN THE SINGLE DIGITS CONCURRENT WITH 20 MPH SUSTAINED WESTERLY
SURFACE WINDS (WITH GUSTS OVER 30 MPH). A CRITICAL AREA HAS BEEN
DELINEATED WHERE METEOROLOGICAL CRITERIA AND DRY FUELS OVERLAP.
..JIRAK.. 06/17/2023
...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV/FIRE FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
READ MORE
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SPC DAY 2 FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK
SPC DAY 2 FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK
DAY 2 FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0200 AM CDT SAT JUN 17 2023
VALID 181200Z - 191200Z
...SYNOPSIS...
ON SUNDAY, A CLOSED UPPER-LEVEL LOW IS FORECAST TO SAG SOUTHWARD
OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST WHILE MODERATE ZONAL FLOW ALOFT PREVAILS
OVER THE SOUTHWEST. AS A RESULT, THE SURFACE PATTERN AND AIRMASS
WILL REMAIN LARGELY UNCHANGED FROM PREVIOUS DAYS. DAYTIME HEATING
WILL PROMOTE BOUNDARY-LAYER MIXING AND DEEPENING, RESULTING IN
AFTERNOON RH VALUES FALLING BELOW 10 PERCENT AND SUSTAINED AFTERNOON
SURFACE WINDS APPROACHING 20 MPH. AN AREA HAS BEEN DELINEATED OVER
SOUTHERN ARIZONA AND CENTRAL/SOUTHERN NEW MEXICO, WHERE FUELS ARE
SUFFICIENTLY DRY FOR ELEVATED FIRE-WEATHER CONCERNS.
..JIRAK.. 06/17/2023
...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV/FIRE FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
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