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LU9DCE > ALERT 05.08.23 09:32z 321 Lines 11936 Bytes #999 (0) @ WW
BID : 4060_LU9DCE
Read: GUEST
Subj: STORM PREDICTION CENTER 22-JUL23
Path: HB9ON<IW0QNL<ON0AR<GB7CIP<VK2RZ<W0ARP<LU9DCE
Sent: 230722/1200Z 4060@LU9DCE.TOR.BA.ARG.SOAM BPQ6.0.23
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PACKET RADIO STATION - BUENOS AIRES (GF05OM)
PHP SCHEDULED NEWSLETTERS (PSN)
COPYRIGHT 2023 - EDUARDO A. CASTILLO
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SPC - NO WATCHES ARE VALID AS OF SAT JUL 22 08:07:02 UTC 2023
NO WATCHES ARE VALID AS OF SAT JUL 22 08:07:02 UTC 2023.
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SPC - NO MDS ARE IN EFFECT AS OF SAT JUL 22 08:07:02 UTC 2023
NO MESOSCALE DISCUSSIONS ARE IN EFFECT AS OF SAT JUL 22 08:07:02 UTC 2023.
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SPC JUL 22, 2023 0600 UTC DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
SPC 1200Z DAY 1 OUTLOOK
DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1257 AM CDT SAT JUL 22 2023
VALID 221200Z - 231200Z
...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF
WESTERN AND CENTRAL KANSAS...
...SUMMARY...
THUNDERSTORMS ASSOCIATED WITH STRONG WIND GUSTS AND HAIL WILL BE
POSSIBLE TODAY ACROSS PARTS OF THE SOUTHEAST, GREAT PLAINS, UPPER
MIDWEST AND ARIZONA.
...SOUTHEAST...
AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH WILL MOVE EASTWARD ACROSS THE OHIO AND
TENNESSEE VALLEYS TODAY, AS A COLD FRONT ADVANCES SLOWLY SOUTHWARD
ACROSS THE GULF COAST STATES. NEAR AND TO THE SOUTH OF THE FRONT,
SURFACE DEWPOINTS WILL BE IN THE LOWER TO MID 70S F. AS SURFACE
TEMPERATURES WARM IN THIS MOIST AIRMASS, MODERATE INSTABILITY WILL
LIKELY DEVELOP. SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO FORM ALONG
AND NEAR AN EAST-TO-WEST AXIS OF INSTABILITY THIS AFTERNOON.
DEEP-LAYER SHEAR IS EXPECTED TO BE LESS THAN 30 KNOTS IN MOST AREAS,
SUGGESTING THAT ANY SEVERE THREAT WILL REMAIN UNORGANIZED. AS
LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES STEEPEN DURING THE AFTERNOON, THE STRONGER
MULTICELLS COULD PRODUCE A MARGINAL WIND-DAMAGE THREAT. THE STORMS
WILL MOVE SOUTHEASTWARD THROUGH THE IMMEDIATE COASTAL AREAS OF
ALABAMA AND THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE DURING THE MID TO LATE AFTERNOON.
THE THREAT COULD PERSIST INTO THE EARLY EVENING ACROSS PARTS OF
SOUTHERN GEORGIA AND SOUTHERN SOUTH CAROLINA.
...GREAT PLAINS/MID MISSOURI VALLEY/UPPER MIDWEST...
NORTHWEST MID-LEVEL FLOW WILL BE IN PLACE TODAY ACROSS THE CENTRAL
U.S., AS A COLD FRONT MOVES SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE CENTRAL PLAINS.
SURFACE DEWPOINTS AHEAD OF THE FRONT NEAR 60 F, WILL LIKELY RESULT
IN A POCKET OF MODERATE INSTABILITY ACROSS KANSAS BY AFTERNOON.
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP NEAR THE FRONT AND
MOVE SOUTHWARD INTO THE MODERATE INSTABILITY. FORECAST SOUNDINGS AT
21Z NEAR AND SOUTH OF THE INSTABILITY AXIS IN WESTERN KANSAS SUGGEST
SUPERCELLS WILL BE POSSIBLE, WITH MLCAPE NEAR 2500 J/KG, AND 0-6 KM
SHEAR IN THE 35 TO 40 KNOT RANGE. THIS ENVIRONMENT, COMBINED WITH
LOW TO MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES AROUND 7.5 C/KM WILL BE FAVORABLE FOR
ISOLATED LARGE HAIL. WIND DAMAGE WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE, MAINLY AS
CELLS MATURE DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING.
FURTHER TO THE NORTHEAST ACROSS THE MID MISSOURI VALLEY AND UPPER
MIDWEST, A RELATIVE NARROW CORRIDOR OF INSTABILITY WILL LIKELY
DEVELOP DURING THE AFTERNOON ALONG AND JUST AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT.
THUNDERSTORMS THAT FORM NEAR THE FRONT WILL MOVE SOUTH-SOUTHEASTWARD
INTO THE STRONGER INSTABILITY DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON. A FEW OF
THESE STORMS COULD PRODUCE HAIL AND MARGINALLY SEVERE WIND GUSTS.
...ARIZONA...
A MID-LEVEL ANTICYCLONE WILL BE IN PLACE TODAY ACROSS MUCH OF THE
DESERT SOUTHWEST. AT THE SURFACE, A RELATIVELY MOIST AIRMASS WILL BE
IN PLACE ACROSS SOUTHERN ARIZONA, WHERE MLCAPE IS FORECAST TO
INCREASE INTO THE 1000 TO 1500 J/KG RANGE. THUNDERSTORMS APPEAR
LIKELY TO FORM IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF SOUTHWEST NEW MEXICO, AND
MOVE WESTWARD ACROSS SOUTHERN ARIZONA LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY
THIS EVENING. A HOT AND NEARLY DRY ADIABATIC TEMPERATURE PROFILE
COULD CONTRIBUTE TO STRONG DOWNDRAFT ACCELERATIONS WITH SINGLE AND
MULTICELL STORMS. WIND-DAMAGE IS EXPECTED TO BE THE PRIMARY THREAT,
WITH THREAT COVERAGE REMAINING RELATIVELY LOW.
..BROYLES/BENTLEY.. 07/22/2023
READ MORE
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SPC JUL 22, 2023 0600 UTC DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
SPC 0600Z DAY 2 OUTLOOK
DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1244 AM CDT SAT JUL 22 2023
VALID 231200Z - 241200Z
...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS SOUTH-CENTRAL
AND SOUTHEAST ARIZONA...
...SUMMARY...
ISOLATED SEVERE GUSTS ARE POSSIBLE MAINLY SUNDAY EVENING OVER
PORTIONS OF ARIZONA.
...SYNOPSIS...
A MID-LEVEL ANTICYCLONE WILL BE CENTERED OVER THE FOUR CORNERS WITH
A LARGE-SCALE TROUGH OVER THE EAST. A BELT OF MODERATE FLOW WILL
EXTEND FROM THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST THROUGH THE NORTHERN ROCKIES AND
INTO THE DAKOTAS/MID MO VALLEY. IN THE LOW LEVELS, A WEAKENED
FRONTAL ZONE WILL BE DRAPED OVER THE COASTAL PLAIN OF THE GULF
COAST.
...SONORAN DESERT...
INTENSE HEATING OF THE LOWER DESERTS AND ADJACENT TERRAIN OF
SOUTHEAST AZ AND THE MOGOLLON RIM WILL YIELD VERY STEEP LAPSE RATES
BY MID-LATE AFTERNOON. APPRECIABLE MOISTURE (PW 1.25 TO 1.4 INCHES)
AND TERRAIN-BASED CIRCULATIONS WILL LIKELY RESULT IN AT LEAST
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED STORMS DEVELOPING BY LATE AFTERNOON OVER THE
MOGOLLON RIM AND THE MOUNTAINS OF SOUTHEAST AZ. AROUND 20 KT
EASTERLY FLOW IN THE MID LEVELS WILL AID IN STORM MOTIONS
PROPAGATING TO THE WEST INTO THE LOWER DESERTS BY EARLY EVENING.
VERY DRY SUB-CLOUD LAYERS WILL POTENTIALLY RESULT IN EVAPORATIVELY
COOLED, SEVERE-CALIBER MICROBURSTS. THIS ACTIVITY WILL SLOWLY
DIMINISH INTO THE LATE EVENING.
ELSEWHERE, SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS THUNDERSTORMS ARE FORECAST TO
DEVELOP NEAR THE SEA-BREEZE FRONT AND DECAYING SYNOPTIC FRONT ALONG
THE GULF COAST AND NORTHEAST INTO THE CAROLINAS. RICH MOISTURE
(HIGH PW) THROUGH THE COLUMN WILL RESULT IN RELATIVELY WEAK LAPSE
RATES BUT MODERATE BUOYANCY BY THE AFTERNOON. A FEW STRONGER GUSTS
CANNOT BE RULED OUT BUT SOME UNCERTAINTY REMAINS WHERE THE MORE
ACTIVE CLUSTERS WILL DEVELOP---PRECLUDING LOW SEVERE PROBABILITIES.
A COUPLE OF STORMS MAY DEVELOP OVER ND IN A CONDITIONAL ENVIRONMENT
SUPPORTING VIGOROUS STORMS. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED DIURNAL STORMS
ARE POSSIBLE OVER THE NORTHERN ROCKIES ON THE NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF
THE MID-LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE WEST. STEEP LAPSE RATES AND DRY
SUB-CLOUD LAYERS COULD YIELD LOCALIZED STRONG GUSTS.
..SMITH.. 07/22/2023
READ MORE
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SPC JUL 22, 2023 0730 UTC DAY 3 SEVERE THUNDERSTORM OUTLOOK
SPC 0730Z DAY 3 OUTLOOK
DAY 3 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0215 AM CDT SAT JUL 22 2023
VALID 241200Z - 251200Z
...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PORTIONS OF
THE MID TO UPPER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY...
...SUMMARY...
ISOLATED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE ON MONDAY IN THE MID TO
UPPER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY.
...SYNOPSIS...
A MID-LEVEL ANTICYCLONE WILL BE CENTERED OVER NM ON MONDAY WHILE A
BROAD, WEAK TROUGH RESIDES OVER THE EAST. A POTENT MID-LEVEL
SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL MOVE EAST INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST AND
SOUTHERN BRITISH COLUMBIA DURING THE DAY 3 PERIOD. MONSOONAL
THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE DESERT SOUTHWEST AND GREAT
BASIN. SOME OF THE THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE INTERIOR WEST WILL POSE A
RISK FOR GUSTY WINDS.
...SOUTHERN MN INTO IA AND ADJACENT PORTIONS OF WI/IL...
A NORTHWEST-FLOW REGIME IS FORECAST FOR THE MID TO UPPER MS RIVER
VALLEY ON MONDAY. MODELS HINT AT SHOWING A WEAK DISTURBANCE MOVING
SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE REGION ON MONDAY. LOCATED ON THE NORTHEASTERN
PERIPHERY OF WARMER 700-MB TEMPERATURES (10-12 DEG C) AND A STRONG
CAPPING INVERSION, STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND INCREASING
LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE (PARTIALLY EVAPOTRANSPIRATION CONTRIBUTED) WILL
COMBINE TO YIELD A CONDITIONALLY UNSTABLE AIRMASS DURING THE DAY.
MODELS INDICATE AN ISOLATED RISK FOR THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP WITHIN
A WEAK WARM ADVECTION ZONE CENTERED OVER IA. VEERING AN
STRENGTHENING FLOW WITH HEIGHT WILL FAVOR STORM ORGANIZATION. LARGE
HAIL AND SEVERE GUSTS MAY OCCUR IF A SMALL CLUSTER OF STORMS CAN
DEVELOP AND BECOME SUSTAINED.
..SMITH.. 07/22/2023
READ MORE
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SPC JUL 22, 2023 DAY 4-8 SEVERE WEATHER OUTLOOK
DAY 4-8 OUTLOOK
DAY 4-8 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0303 AM CDT SAT JUL 22 2023
VALID 251200Z - 301200Z
...DISCUSSION...
A MID-LEVEL HIGH WILL CONTINUE TO BE CENTERED OVER THE DESERT
SOUTHWEST DURING THE EXTENDED PERIOD. A WEAKENING/FLATTENING OF THE
RIDGE OVER THE NORTH-CENTRAL U.S. IS EXPECTED PER MODEL GUIDANCE
TRENDS, LEADING TO A MORE PROGRESSIVE/LOW-AMPLITUDE PATTERN ACROSS
THE NORTHERN TIER OF STATES. UNCERTAINTY REMAINS HIGH REGARDING
SPECIFICS WITH TIMING/LOCATION OF DISTURBANCES THAT MAY FOCUS SEVERE
POTENTIAL.
READ MORE
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SPC DAY 1 FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK
SPC DAY 1 FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK
DAY 1 FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0102 AM CDT SAT JUL 22 2023
VALID 221200Z - 231200Z
...NO CRITICAL AREAS...
...SYNOPSIS...
A STRONG RIDGE, CENTERED OVER THE INTER-MOUNTAIN WEST WILL LEAD TO
HOT CONDITIONS FOR MUCH OF THE WESTERN CONUS. SOME MODERATE
MID-LEVEL FLOW WILL OVERSPREAD THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST AS A WEAKENING
MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH APPROACHES THE NORTHEAST PACIFIC.
SOME GUSTY WINDS ARE LIKELY IN THE CASCADE GAPS TODAY AS THE
STRONGER MID-LEVEL FLOW OVERSPREADS THE AREA. HOWEVER, ONSHORE FLOW
IS ALREADY PRESENT THROUGH THESE GAPS AND THEREFORE, RELATIVE
HUMIDITY LIKELY WILL NOT BE THAT LOW WHERE THESE HIGHER WINDS ARE
EXPECTED AND THEREFORE, NO FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS ARE ANTICIPATED.
IN ADDITION, SOME DRY AND BREEZY DOWNSLOPE FLOW IS EXPECTED ACROSS
PARTS OF NORTH-CENTRAL MONTANA IN RESPONSE TO THE STRONGER MID-LEVEL
FLOW OVERSPREADING THE REGION AND A TIGHTENING PRESSURE GRADIENT IN
RESPONSE TO THE SURFACE CYCLONE DEVELOPING ACROSS SOUTHERN ALBERTA.
HOWEVER, FUELS ARE NOT THAT DRY IN THE AREA AND THEREFORE, NO
ELEVATED AREA IS WARRANTED.
ACROSS THE GREAT BASIN, SOME LOCALLY ELEVATED CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE, BUT THERE IS NO WIDESPREAD THREAT WHICH COULD BE
HIGHLIGHTED.
..BENTLEY.. 07/22/2023
...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV/FIRE FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
READ MORE
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SPC DAY 2 FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK
SPC DAY 2 FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK
DAY 2 FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0104 AM CDT SAT JUL 22 2023
VALID 231200Z - 241200Z
...SYNOPSIS...
THE UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE WILL START TO SHIFT EAST ON SUNDAY WHICH WILL
ALLOW SOME STRONGER MID-LEVEL FLOW TO OVERSPREAD THE NORTHWEST AND
THE NORTHERN GREAT BASIN. DOWNSLOPE FLOW IN THE LEE OF THE SIERRA
AND DEEP MIXING ACROSS NORTHERN NEVADA/SOUTHERN OREGON WILL ALLOW
WINDS TO INCREASE TO 15 TO 20 MPH DURING THE AFTERNOON AMID
SINGLE-DIGIT RELATIVE HUMIDITY.
SOME ENHANCEMENT OF THE FLOW IS POSSIBLE ACROSS SOUTHERN NEVADA ON
SUNDAY AS A WEAK MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVES NORTHWARD AROUND
THE WESTERN EDGE OF THE ANTICYCLONE. THIS SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS
CURRENTLY ACROSS CENTRAL NEW MEXICO AND MAY UNDERGO SOME CONVECTIVE
ENHANCEMENT DURING THE D1/SATURDAY PERIOD. DUE TO THE INFLUENCE OF
DAY 1 CONVECTION ON THE STRENGTH OF THIS TROUGH, WILL NOT ADD AN
ELEVATED AREA AT THIS TIME.
SOME ELEVATED CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE IN THE SNAKE RIVER PLAIN ON
SUNDAY AS STRONGER MID-LEVEL FLOW OVERSPREADS THE REGION AND LOW
PRESSURE DEVELOPS IN THE NORTHERN GREAT BASIN. HOWEVER, FUELS IN THE
AREA REMAIN ONLY MARGINALLY DRY. THEREFORE, AN ELEVATED DELINEATION
IS NOT WARRANTED AT THIS TIME.
..BENTLEY.. 07/22/2023
...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV/FIRE FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
READ MORE
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