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LU9DCE > ALERT 05.08.23 09:33z 465 Lines 18585 Bytes #999 (0) @ WW
BID : 4581_LU9DCE
Read: GUEST
Subj: STORM PREDICTION CENTER 02-AUG23
Path: HB9ON<IW0QNL<IZ3LSV<I0OJJ<GB7CIP<VE3KPG<VA3TOK<LU9DCE
Sent: 230802/1200Z 4581@LU9DCE.TOR.BA.ARG.SOAM BPQ6.0.23
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SPC - NO WATCHES ARE VALID AS OF WED AUG 2 09:02:02 UTC 2023
NO WATCHES ARE VALID AS OF WED AUG 2 09:02:02 UTC 2023.
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SPC MD 1813
MD 1813 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY FOR SOUTHERN
NEBRASKA...FAR NORTHERN KANSAS...SOUTHWEST IOWA...NORTHERN AND CENTRAL
MISSOURI
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1813
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0238 AM CDT WED AUG 02 2023
AREAS AFFECTED...SOUTHERN NEBRASKA...FAR NORTHERN KANSAS...SOUTHWEST
IOWA...NORTHERN AND CENTRAL MISSOURI
CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY
VALID 020738Z - 021015Z
PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...5 PERCENT
SUMMARY...AN ISOLATED WIND-DAMAGE AND HAIL THREAT WILL BE POSSIBLE
FROM SOUTHERN NEBRASKA INTO SOUTHWEST IOWA AND NORTH-CENTRAL
MISSOURI OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. THE THREAT IS EXPECTED TO BE
MARGINAL AND WEATHER WATCH ISSUANCE IS NOT EXPECTED.
DISCUSSION...THE LATEST HIGH-RESOLUTION RADAR IMAGERY FROM HASTINGS
AND OMAHA SHOW TWO MCSS ONGOING. THE FIRST IS OVER SOUTHWEST
NEBRASKA AND NORTHWEST KANSAS, WHICH IS LOCATED TO THE WEST OF A
POCKET OF MODERATE TO STRONG INSTABILITY. THE SECOND IS OVER
SOUTHWEST IOWA AND NORTH-CENTRAL MISSOURI. THE SECOND MCS IS LOCATED
ALONG A NORTH-TO-SOUTH GRADIENT OF INSTABILITY, AND IS ASSOCIATED
WITH MODERATE DEEP-LAYER SHEAR EVIDENT ON RAP ANALYSIS. A LOW-LEVEL
TEMPERATURE INVERSION IS EVIDENT ON RAP FORECAST SOUNDINGS ACROSS
MUCH OF THE REGION. FOR THIS REASON, CONVECTION IS EXPECTED TO
REMAIN ELEVATED. ALTHOUGH A WIND-DAMAGE AND HAIL THREAT WILL BE
POSSIBLE WITH THE STRONGER MULTICELLS AND/OR SHORT-LIVED SUPERCELLS,
THE ENVIRONMENT WILL CONTINUE TO BE MARGINAL FOR SEVERE STORMS. ANY
SEVERE THREAT SHOULD REMAIN LOCALIZED AND BRIEF.
..BROYLES/EDWARDS.. 08/02/2023
...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
ATTN...WFO...LSX...DMX...EAX...OAX...TOP...GID...LBF...
LAT...LON 39849529 39539390 38919292 38789223 39089176 39689191
40879310 41839502 41909728 40989947 40599982 40199970
39989928 39919841 39849529
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SPC AUG 2, 2023 0600 UTC DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
SPC 1200Z DAY 1 OUTLOOK
DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1242 AM CDT WED AUG 02 2023
VALID 021200Z - 031200Z
...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM CENTRAL MO
INTO SOUTHERN IL...
...SUMMARY...
THUNDERSTORMS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING DAMAGING GUSTS, ISOLATED HAIL,
AND POSSIBLY A TORNADO ARE POSSIBLE FROM CENTRAL MISSOURI INTO
SOUTHERN ILLINOIS, MAINLY THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. ISOLATED
STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE ALSO POSSIBLE ACROSS THE UPPER
GREAT LAKES REGION AND CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS.
...MISSOURI INTO SOUTHERN IL AND VICINITY...
ANOTHER ROUND OF WIDESPREAD ELEVATED CONVECTION WILL LIKELY BE
ONGOING AT THE START OF THE PERIOD FROM MO INTO SOUTHERN IL AND
VICINITY, AS A SOUTHWESTERLY LOW-LEVEL JET IMPINGES UPON A
PERSISTENT BAROCLINIC ZONE. THIS CONVECTION MAY TEND TO DIMINISH
SOMEWHAT BY LATE MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON, POTENTIALLY ALLOWING FOR
SEVERAL HOURS OF DIURNAL HEATING AND OUTFLOW MODIFICATION, AND
DEVELOPMENT OF MODERATE TO LOCALLY STRONG BUOYANCY BY LATE
AFTERNOON.
MEANWHILE, AN MCV ORIGINATING FROM THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS IS
FORECAST TO APPROACH THE LOWER MO RIVER VALLEY DURING THE AFTERNOON
AND EVENING, RESULTING IN RENEWED THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT NEAR AND
TO THE COOL SIDE OF AN OUTFLOW-REINFORCED SURFACE BOUNDARY. MODESTLY
ENHANCED LOW/MIDLEVEL FLOW WILL SUPPORT SUFFICIENT EFFECTIVE SHEAR
FOR ORGANIZED CONVECTION, AND SUPERCELLS MAY EVOLVE OUT OF INITIAL
REDEVELOPMENT WITHIN A MOIST AND MODERATELY UNSTABLE ENVIRONMENT.
THE EXTENT OF ENHANCEMENT TO LOW-LEVEL SHEAR/SRH REMAINS UNCERTAIN,
BUT MAY BE SUFFICIENT TO SUPPORT A TORNADO OR TWO, DEPENDING IN PART
ON THE EXTENT OF OUTFLOW MODIFICATION TO THE COOL SIDE OF THE
BOUNDARY. A THREAT FOR ISOLATED DAMAGING WIND AND HAIL WOULD ALSO
ACCOMPANY ANY SUSTAINED SUPERCELLS.
WITH RATHER WEAK UPPER-LEVEL FLOW ACROSS THE REGION AND POTENTIAL
FOR STORM INTERACTIONS/MERGERS, A RATHER QUICK TRANSITION TO
OUTFLOW-DRIVEN CLUSTERS MAY OCCUR BY EARLY EVENING, POTENTIALLY
SPREADING A DAMAGING-WIND THREAT SOUTHEASTWARD TOWARD THE LOWER OH
VALLEY BEFORE CONVECTION WEAKENS LATE TONIGHT.
...UPPER GREAT LAKES VICINITY...
DIURNAL HEATING OF A RELATIVELY MOIST ENVIRONMENT IS EXPECTED TO
RESULT IN MODERATE DESTABILIZATION THIS AFTERNOON FROM MN INTO PARTS
OF THE UPPER GREAT LAKES. MEANWHILE, MODEST NORTHWESTERLY MIDLEVEL
FLOW WILL SUPPORT EFFECTIVE SHEAR OF 30-40 KT, CONDITIONALLY
FAVORABLE FOR ORGANIZED CONVECTION. HOWEVER, LARGE-SCALE ASCENT MAY
BE RELATIVELY LIMITED, WITH A SHORTWAVE MID/UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH
FORECAST TO PASS WELL TO THE NORTH ACROSS ONTARIO, AND THE TRAILING
COLD FRONT NOT EXPECTED TO APPROACH THE AREA UNTIL TONIGHT. AS A
RESULT, STORM COVERAGE MAY REMAIN LIMITED, BUT DEVELOPMENT OF
ISOLATED CELLS/CLUSTERS WILL BE POSSIBLE DURING THE
AFTERNOON/EVENING AS MLCINH WEAKENS. HAIL AND LOCALLY DAMAGING GUSTS
WILL BE THE PRIMARY THREATS WITH ANY SUSTAINED STRONGER STORMS.
...CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS...
RELATIVELY RICH LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE WILL AGAIN SUPPORT MODERATE
DESTABILIZATION ACROSS PARTS OF THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS THIS
AFTERNOON, AND SCATTERED THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT IS EXPECTED FROM
EASTERN CO INTO ADJACENT PORTIONS OF SOUTHWEST NE AND WESTERN KS.
DEEP-LAYER SHEAR IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN RATHER WEAK, BUT ISOLATED
SEVERE OUTFLOW GUSTS WILL BE POSSIBLE, ESPECIALLY IN AREAS WHERE
STRONGER PRE-CONVECTIVE HEATING OCCURS.
..DEAN/BENTLEY.. 08/02/2023
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SPC AUG 2, 2023 0600 UTC DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
SPC 0600Z DAY 2 OUTLOOK
DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1244 AM CDT WED AUG 02 2023
VALID 031200Z - 041200Z
...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PORTIONS OF
THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS...
...SUMMARY...
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS PRODUCING LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING GUSTS ARE
EXPECTED ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS THURSDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. ADDITIONAL STRONG STORMS ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS
PARTS OF THE GREAT LAKES/NORTHEAST AND THE TENNESSEE VALLEY
VICINITY.
...SYNOPSIS...
THE MEAN UPPER FLOW REGIME ON THURSDAY WILL BE CHARACTERIZED BY A
RIDGE ORIENTED OVER THE HIGH PLAINS AND A TROUGH ACROSS THE EASTERN
THIRD OF THE CONUS. A MIDLEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO
MIGRATE THROUGH THE UPPER RIDGE FROM EASTERN UT/WESTERN CO INTO THE
NORTHERN/CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS. ACROSS THE EAST, SEVERAL SHORTWAVE
PERTURBATIONS ARE EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH THE UPPER TROUGH. ONE OF
THESE IMPULSES WILL SHIFT EAST ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES TOWARD THE ST.
LAWRENCE VALLEY VICINITY. ANOTHER IMPULSE, CONVECTIVELY ENHANCED BY
A STORM COMPLEX IN THE DAY 1/WED TIME FRAME, WILL MOVE ACROSS THE TN
VALLEY VICINITY. THESE THREE FEATURES WILL FOCUS STRONG TO SEVERE
THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL ON THURSDAY/THURSDAY EVENING.
...CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS VICINITY...
MID/UPPER WESTERLY FLOW AROUND 30-40 KT IS FORECAST AS THE MIDLEVEL
SHORTWAVE TROUGH EJECTS EASTWARD THROUGH THE AFTERNOON/EVENING.
EAST/SOUTHEASTERLY LOW-LEVEL FLOW WILL MAINTAIN 60S F SURFACE
DEWPOINTS ACROSS THE REGION, SUPPORTING A CORRIDOR OF 1500-3000 J/KG
MLCAPE. EFFECTIVE-SHEAR MAGNITUDES AROUND 35-45 KT WILL SUPPORT
ORGANIZED CELLS CAPABLE OF LARGE HAIL INITIALLY. STEEP LOW-LEVEL
LAPSE RATES AND BOUNDARY-LAYER MIXING TO AROUND 1-2 KM ALSO WILL
SUPPORT STRONG OUTFLOW GUSTS. WITH TIME, CLUSTERING AND
CONSOLIDATING OUTFLOWS WILL FOSTER DEVELOPMENT OF AN MCS ACROSS
WESTERN NE/NORTHEAST CO/NORTHWEST KS DURING THE EVENING. DAMAGING
WIND POTENTIAL WILL ACCOMPANY THIS ACTIVITY INTO THE EARLY OVERNIGHT
HOURS.
...TN VALLEY VICINITY...
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL LIKELY BE ONGOING THURSDAY MORNING
SOMEWHERE FROM SOUTHEAST MO INTO MIDDLE TN. THIS ACTIVITY WILL
LIKELY POSE MAINLY A HEAVY RAIN THREAT INITIALLY BEFORE SOME
DECREASE IN PRECIPITATION. HOWEVER, CLOUDINESS WILL LIKELY CONTINUE
ACROSS PARTS OF KY/TN, BECOMING LESS WITH SOUTHWARD EXTENT. THIS
WILL RESULT IN A DIFFERENTIAL HEATING BOUNDARY SOMEWHERE IN THE
VICINITY OF MIDDLE TN INTO NORTHERN AL/GA. STRONG NORTHWESTERLY
MID/UPPER FLOW FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR WILL OVERLAP A MOST AND
UNSTABLE AIRMASS. CONVECTION IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP DURING THE
AFTERNOON ALONG REMNANT OUTFLOW/DIFFERENTIAL HEATING ZONE. ORGANIZED
CLUSTERS MAY GROW UPSCALE INTO AN MCS MOVING EAST/SOUTHEAST ACROSS
PARTS OF TN INTO NORTHERN MS/AL/GA AND VICINITY, AND POSE A
DAMAGING-GUST RISK. GIVEN THE PRESENCE OF A SURFACE BOUNDARY AND
INCREASING WINDS WITH HEIGHT, SOME RISK FOR A TORNADO OR TWO ALSO IS
EVIDENT AS SRH INCREASES AND LOW-LEVEL HODOGRAPHS BECOME ENLARGED
THROUGH THE DAY.
IMPORTANTLY, CONVECTION IN THE DAY 1/WED TIME PERIOD CONTINUING INTO
THURSDAY MORNING RESULTS IN SOME UNCERTAINTY CONCERNING WHERE
EXACTLY THIS DIFFERENTIAL HEATING BOUNDARY WILL RESIDE. THIS WILL
IMPACT THE EASTWARD EXTENT OF SEVERE POTENTIAL, WHILE WEAKENING
VERTICAL SHEAR WILL LIMIT SOUTHWARD EXTENT. NEVERTHELESS, CONFIDENCE
HAS INCREASED SUFFICIENTLY TO INCLUDE MARGINAL RISK (LEVEL 1 OF 5)
SEVERE PROBABILITIES, AND UPGRADES MAY BE NEEDED IN SUBSEQUENT
OUTLOOKS.
...GREAT LAKES/NORTHEAST VICINITY...
A SHORTWAVE IMPULSE EMBEDDED IN THE LARGER-SCALE EASTERN TROUGH WILL
MOVE ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES MUCH OF THE PERIOD. A BELT OF 30-40 KT
MIDLEVEL FLOW WILL OVERLAP A SEASONALLY MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER AHEAD
OF A SOUTH/SOUTHEAST-ADVANCING COLD FRONT. MLCAPE GENERALLY LESS
THAN 1500 J/KG IS FORECAST AMID MODEST MIDLEVEL LAPSE RATES.
LOW-LEVEL FLOW WILL BE FAIRLY LIGHT, BUT SPEED SHEAR WILL SUPPORT
EFFECTIVE-SHEAR MAGNITUDES AROUND 25-35 KT. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW
ELONGATED/STRAIGHT HODOGRAPHS, AND MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL WILL BE
POSSIBLE WITH STRONGER UPDRAFTS. STRONG HEATING WILL RESULT IN STEEP
LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES, AND STRONG OUTFLOW WINDS ALSO WILL BE
POSSIBLE.
SOME POTENTIAL FOR A WESTWARD EXPANSION OF THE MARGINAL RISK (LEVEL
1 OF 5) INTO EASTERN WI IS POSSIBLE, BUT UNCERTAINTY REGARDING
CONVECTIVE COVERAGE AND A MORE CONDITIONAL RISK WITH WESTWARD EXTENT
PRECLUDES PROBABILITIES AT THIS TIME.
..LEITMAN.. 08/02/2023
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SPC AUG 2, 2023 0730 UTC DAY 3 SEVERE THUNDERSTORM OUTLOOK
SPC 0730Z DAY 3 OUTLOOK
DAY 3 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0205 AM CDT WED AUG 02 2023
VALID 041200Z - 051200Z
...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS
OF THE NORTHEAST...
...SUMMARY...
ISOLATED STRONG STORMS PRODUCING HAIL AND LOCALLY DAMAGING GUSTS ARE
POSSIBLE ACROSS PARTS OF THE NORTHEAST ON FRIDAY.
...NORTHEAST...
AN UPPER TROUGH WILL PERSIST ACROSS THE EASTERN THIRD OF THE CONUS
ON FRIDAY. A WEAK SURFACE FRONT WILL DROP SOUTHWARD ACROSS PORTIONS
OF THE NORTHEAST. A SEASONALLY MOIST AIRMASS WILL RESIDE AHEAD OF
THE FRONT AND MODEST DESTABILIZATION IS FORECAST. EFFECTIVE SHEAR
AROUND 25-35 KT WILL SUPPORT ORGANIZED CELLS. ELONGATED FORECAST
HODOGRAPHS SUGGEST THE STRONGEST CELLS COULD PRODUCE MARGINALLY
SEVERE HAIL. OTHERWISE, STRONG GUSTS ALSO WILL BE POSSIBLE THROUGH
EARLY EVENING.
...CENTRAL PLAINS...
SOUTHEASTERLY LOW-LEVEL FLOW WILL MAINTAIN 60S F DEWPOINTS ACROSS
THE CENTRAL PLAINS ON FRIDAY. A WEAK MIDLEVEL LOW OVER THE NORTHERN
PLAINS WILL SUPPRESS THE UPPER RIDGE OVER THE REGION, AND WEAK
VORTICITY MAXIMA ARE FORECAST TO MIGRATE THROUGH WESTERLY MIDLEVEL
FLOW. THUNDERSTORMS WILL LIKELY DEVELOP DURING PEAK HEATING IN
MOIST, UPSLOPE FLOW WITHIN A MODERATELY UNSTABLE AIRMASS ACROSS THE
CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS. WEAK VERTICAL SHEAR MAY LIMIT SEVERE POTENTIAL,
AND SEVERAL DAYS OF PRIOR CONVECTION ALSO MAY IMPACT QUALITY OF
BOUNDARY-LAYER MOISTURE/THERMODYNAMICS. LOW-END SEVERE PROBABILITIES
MAY BE NEEDED AT SOME POINT, BUT CONFIDENCE IS TOO LOW TO INTRODUCE
MARGINAL PROBABILITIES AT THIS TIME.
...SOUTHEAST...
MODERATE NORTHWESTERLY MID/UPPER FLOW WILL PERSIST ON FRIDAY. AN MCV
FROM PRIOR DAYS CONVECTION MAY MOVE ACROSS PARTS OF GA AND THE
CAROLINAS, PROVIDING SUPPORT FOR THUNDERSTORMS AMID A MOIST/UNSTABLE
ENVIRONMENT. WHILE THIS GENERALLY WILL SUPPORT SOME SEVERE
POTENTIAL, UNCERTAINTY IN THE EVOLUTION OF CONVECTIVE SYSTEMS IN THE
DAY 1/DAY 2 TIME PERIOD, AND HOW THIS WILL IMPACT THE DOWNSTREAM
ENVIRONMENT ACROSS PARTS OF THE SOUTHEAST ON DAY 3, REMAINS TOO HIGH
TO INCLUDE UNCONDITIONAL SEVERE PROBABILITIES AT THIS TIME.
..LEITMAN.. 08/02/2023
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SPC AUG 2, 2023 DAY 4-8 SEVERE WEATHER OUTLOOK
DAY 4-8 OUTLOOK
DAY 4-8 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0314 AM CDT WED AUG 02 2023
VALID 051200Z - 101200Z
...DISCUSSION...
...DAY 4/SAT - CENTRAL PLAINS VICINITY...
FORECAST GUIDANCE HAS TRENDED TOWARD A LESS AMPLIFIED MIDLEVEL
TROUGH MIGRATING ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS ON SATURDAY.
NEVERTHELESS, A BELT OF ENHANCED WESTERLY FLOW WILL STILL RESIDE
OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS WHILE A WEAK SURFACE LOW SHIFTS EAST IN THE
VICINITY OF THE NE/SD BORDER. A VERY MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER,
SUPPORTING MODERATE TO STRONG INSTABILITY BENEATH MODERATE MIDLEVEL
FLOW, WILL SUPPORT ORGANIZED THUNDERSTORM DEVELOP BY LATE AFTERNOON.
A COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO SHIFT EAST/SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE CENTRAL
PLAINS TOWARD THE LOWER MO VALLEY DURING THE EVENING/OVERNIGHT.
DEVELOPMENT OF A SEVERE MCS APPEARS POSSIBLE, BRINGING A
DAMAGING-WIND RISK TO PORTIONS OF NE/KS.
...DAY 5/SUN - MID-SOUTH TO MID-MS/LOWER OH VALLEYS...
THE CENTRAL PLAINS MIDLEVEL TROUGH AND SURFACE LOW WILL CONTINUE
EAST ON DAY 5/SUN, MOVING ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE MIDWEST. FORECAST
GUIDANCE VARIES WITH INTENSITY OF THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND THE
LOCATION OF THE SURFACE LOW. NEVERTHELESS, A MOIST AND UNSTABLE
AIRMASS, WITH AT LEAST SOME ENHANCEMENT TO MID/UPPER FLOW, WILL
EXIST FROM THE MID-SOUTH TOWARD THE LOWER OH VALLEY. WHILE
CONFIDENCE IS TOO LOW TO DELINEATE A 15 PERCENT SEVERE AREA AT THIS
TIME, SOME SEVERE POTENTIAL IS LIKELY AHEAD OF THE
EASTWARD-ADVANCING COLD FRONT AND ANY ONGOING MCS SUNDAY MORNING.
SEVERE PROBABILITIES LIKELY WILL BE NEEDED ONCE CONFIDENCE INCREASES
IN A MORE FOCUSED CORRIDOR OF GREATER SEVERE POTENTIAL ACROSS THIS
BROAD REGION.
...DAYS 6-8/MON-WED...
SOME DEGREE OF MID/UPPER TROUGHING WILL CONTINUE EASTWARD ACROSS THE
MIDWEST TOWARD THE EASTERN U.S. EARLY NEXT WEEK. LARGE MODEL SPREAD
LENDS TO MUCH UNCERTAINTY IN THIS TIME FRAME. HOWEVER, SOME SEVERE
POTENTIAL COULD SPREAD ACROSS PARTS OF THE MID-ATLANTIC AND
NORTHEAST ON DAY 6/MON DEPENDING ON THE TRACK/TIMING OF THE SURFACE
LOW AND COLD FRONT MENTIONED IN THE DAYS 4-5/SAT-SUN TIME FRAME.
MANY DAYS OF CONVECTION PRIOR TO EARLY NEXT WEEK, AND UNCERTAINTY
REGARDING EVOLUTION OF ANY MCSS FROM THE DAY 4-5 PERIOD, MAKE
PREDICTABILITY TOO LOW TO INCLUDE PROBABILITIES AT THIS TIME.
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SPC DAY 1 FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK
SPC DAY 1 FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK
DAY 1 FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0153 AM CDT WED AUG 02 2023
VALID 021200Z - 031200Z
...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PORTIONS OF CENTRAL TEXAS INTO
SOUTHWEST OKLAHOMA...
...SYNOPSIS...
A SURFACE CYCLONE WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY DEEPEN ACROSS THE CENTRAL
PLAINS TODAY AS THE UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE CONTINUES TO DEAMPLIFY. THIS
WILL MAINTAIN A PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS, WITH A
STRENGTHENING LOW-LEVEL JET LATE WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND WEDNESDAY
EVENING. AS A RESULT, 15 TO 20 MPH WINDS ARE EXPECTED FROM CENTRAL
TEXAS INTO NORTHERN OKLAHOMA WITH RELATIVE HUMIDITY OF 20 TO 30
PERCENT. WHILE THESE CONDITIONS ARE WELL WITHIN THE RANGE OF
ELEVATED FIRE-WEATHER CRITERIA, THEY ARE BORDERLINE FOR A CRITICAL
AREA. HOWEVER, MINIMAL PRECIPITATION OVER THE PAST MONTH HAS LED TO
FLASH DROUGHT, AND FUELS ARE VERY DRY IN THE REGION. THEREFORE,
SUSTAINED ELEVATED CONDITIONS MAY BE MORE CAPABLE OF LARGE-FIRE
POTENTIAL THAN TYPICAL CRITICAL FIRE-WEATHER CONDITIONS DUE TO THE
FUEL STATUS. THIS WARRANTS A CRITICAL DELINEATION FOR AREAS ALONG
AND WEST OF I-35 IN CENTRAL AND NORTHERN TEXAS AND INTO FAR
SOUTHWEST OKLAHOMA.
MONSOON MOISTURE CONTINUES TO EXPAND ACROSS THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST.
TODAY, SOME MID-LEVEL MOISTURE IS EXPECTED TO EXPAND INTO NORTHWEST
NEVADA, SOUTHEAST OREGON AND SOUTHWEST IDAHO. THIS WILL LEAD TO
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT WITH PWAT VALUES AROUND 0.75
INCHES. RELATIVELY LOW PWAT VALUES, HIGH LCLS (~15KFT) AND
CRITICALLY DRY FUELS WILL ALL COMBINE TO JUSTIFY A ISODRYT AREA
CENTERED OVER THE OREGON/IDAHO/NEVADA BORDER.
..BENTLEY.. 08/02/2023
...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV/FIRE FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
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SPC DAY 2 FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK
SPC DAY 2 FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK
DAY 2 FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0158 AM CDT WED AUG 02 2023
VALID 031200Z - 041200Z
...SYNOPSIS...
A SURFACE LOW WILL CONTINUE TO DEEPEN ACROSS CENTRAL KANSAS ON
THURSDAY WHICH WILL TIGHTEN THE PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS. DRY AND BREEZY CONDITIONS (15 MPH SUSTAINED WINDS
AND 20 TO 30 PERCENT RELATIVE HUMIDITY) ARE EXPECTED FROM CENTRAL
OKLAHOMA INTO CENTRAL TEXAS WITH TEMPERATURES OVER 100F. THESE
METEOROLOGICAL CONDITIONS, PAIRED WITH CRITICALLY DRY FUELS WHICH
CONTINUE TO DRY FURTHER EACH DAY, SUPPORT AN ELEVATED AREA ACROSS
PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN PLAINS ON THURSDAY.
MONSOON MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO DRIFT WEST ON THURSDAY, WITH
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS AMID 0.75 TO 1 INCH PWAT VALUES ACROSS
PORTIONS OF EASTERN OREGON, NORTHEAST CALIFORNIA AND NORTHWEST
NEVADA. THESE STORMS WILL BE SLOW MOVING, BUT LCLS WILL BE AROUND
12KFT, WHICH WILL SUPPORT MOSTLY DRY THUNDERSTORMS. IN ADDITION,
90TH TO 95TH PERCENTILE ERCS SHOULD BE IN PLACE ACROSS MOST OF THIS
REGION ON THURSDAY. THEREFORE, AN ISODRYT DELINEATION IS WARRANTED
ON THURSDAY TO COVER THE POTENTIAL FOR NEW LIGHTNING STARTS.
..BENTLEY.. 08/02/2023
...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV/FIRE FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
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