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LU9DCE > ALERT 05.08.23 09:33z 599 Lines 21215 Bytes #999 (0) @ WW
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Subj: STORM PREDICTION CENTER 26-JUL23
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Sent: 230726/1200Z 4249@LU9DCE.TOR.BA.ARG.SOAM BPQK6.0.23
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PHP SCHEDULED NEWSLETTERS (PSN)
COPYRIGHT 2023 - EDUARDO A. CASTILLO
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SPC SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 549
WW 549 SEVERE TSTM IA MN WI 260630Z - 261300Z
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH NUMBER 549
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
130 AM CDT WED JUL 26 2023
THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A
* SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF
EXTREME NORTHEASTERN IOWA
SOUTHEASTERN MINNESOTA
WEST-CENTRAL AND SOUTHWESTERN WISCONSIN
* EFFECTIVE THIS WEDNESDAY MORNING FROM 130 AM UNTIL 800 AM CDT.
* PRIMARY THREATS INCLUDE...
ISOLATED DAMAGING WIND GUSTS TO 65 MPH POSSIBLE
SUMMARY...A SMALL, BOWING COMPLEX OF THUNDERSTORMS WITH A
REAR-INFLOW JET MAY OFFER INTERMITTENT SEVERE-WIND POTENTIAL AS IT
MOVES ALONG AN INSTABILITY GRADIENT INTO THIS WATCH AREA, AFTER
LEAVING EXTENDED PARTS OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 548.
THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 40
STATUTE MILES EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 20 MILES NORTHWEST OF
ROCHESTER MN TO 40 MILES SOUTH OF CAMP DOUGLAS WI. FOR A COMPLETE
DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE THE ASSOCIATED WATCH OUTLINE UPDATE
(WOUS64 KWNS WOU9).
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
REMEMBER...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE
FAVORABLE FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH AREA.
PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR THREATENING
WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS AND POSSIBLE
WARNINGS. SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAN AND OCCASIONALLY DO PRODUCE
TORNADOES.
&&
OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 548...
AVIATION...A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH HAIL SURFACE AND ALOFT TO
1 INCH. EXTREME TURBULENCE AND SURFACE WIND GUSTS TO 55 KNOTS. A FEW
CUMULONIMBI WITH MAXIMUM TOPS TO 500. MEAN STORM MOTION VECTOR
30035.
...EDWARDS
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SPC SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 549 STATUS REPORTS
WW 0549 STATUS UPDATES
STATUS REPORT ON WW 549
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 SSW RST
TO 25 NNE LSE.
FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1719
..MOSIER..07/26/23
ATTN...WFO...ARX...
STATUS REPORT FOR WS 549
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
IAC005-191-261040-
IA
. IOWA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
ALLAMAKEE WINNESHIEK
MNC045-055-261040-
MN
. MINNESOTA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
FILLMORE HOUSTON
WIC023-043-053-057-063-081-103-123-261040-
WI
. WISCONSIN COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
CRAWFORD GRANT JACKSON
JUNEAU LA CROSSE MONROE
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SPC MD 1720
MD 1720 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY FOR
NORTHWEST/NORTH-CENTRAL/CENTRAL IA
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1720
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0426 AM CDT WED JUL 26 2023
AREAS AFFECTED...NORTHWEST/NORTH-CENTRAL/CENTRAL IA
CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY
VALID 260926Z - 261130Z
PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...20 PERCENT
SUMMARY...LARGE HAIL IS POSSIBLE FOR THE NEXT FEW HOURS WITH THE
DISCRETE SUPERCELL MOVING ACROSS NORTHWEST IA.
DISCUSSION...A WEAKENING MULTICELLULAR CLUSTER HAS REINTENSIFIED
INTO A ROBUST DISCRETE SUPERCELL OVER THE PAST HOUR ACROSS NORTHWEST
IA. THIS REINTENSIFICATION WAS PERHAPS PROMOTED BY A COMBINATION OF
INCREASED LARGE-SCALE ASCENT ATTENDANT TO APPROACHING SHORTWAVE
TROUGH AND LOW-LEVEL WARM-AIR ADVECTION. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST
THIS SUPERCELL IS LIKELY ROOTED ABOVE 700 MB. SINCE THIS IS ABOVE
THE DRY LAYER NOTED ON FORECAST SOUNDINGS, THIS STORM MAY BE ABLE TO
PERSIST FOR AT LEAST THE NEXT FEW HOURS AS IT MOVES INTO MORE OF
NORTH-CENTRAL/CENTRAL IA. STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES DOWNSTREAM,
COMBINED WITH MODERATE VERTICAL SHEAR, WILL SUPPORT UPDRAFTS STRONG
ENOUGH FOR LARGE HAIL.
..MOSIER/EDWARDS.. 07/26/2023
...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
ATTN...WFO...DMX...FSD...
LAT...LON 43289518 42899369 42039398 42419538 43289518
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SPC MD 1719
MD 1719 CONCERNING SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 549... FOR FAR SOUTHEAST
MN...SOUTHWEST WI...EXTREME NORTHEAST IA
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1719
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0403 AM CDT WED JUL 26 2023
AREAS AFFECTED...FAR SOUTHEAST MN...SOUTHWEST WI...EXTREME NORTHEAST
IA
CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 549...
VALID 260903Z - 261030Z
THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 549
CONTINUES.
SUMMARY...THREAT FOR DAMAGING GUSTS CONTINUES AHEAD OF THE ONGOING
CONVECTIVE COMPLEX ACROSS FAR SOUTHEAST MN, SOUTHWEST WI, AND
EXTREME NORTHEAST IA.
DISCUSSION...WELL-ORGANIZED CONVECTIVE COMPLEX CONTINUES TO PUSH
SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS FAR SOUTHEAST MN INTO SOUTHWEST WI. RECENT
STORM MOTION IS ESTIMATED AROUND 35-40 KT. KAPX DATA SHOW THAT THE
ELEVATED REAR-INFLOW JET PERSISTS, BUT STABLE LOW-LEVEL CONDITIONS
CONTINUE TO LIMIT THE GUST MAGNITUDE AT THE SURFACE. RST MEASURED 38
KT WITH THE COMPLEX ABOUT 30 MINS AGO. EVEN WITH THESE TRENDS, THE
POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE-CALIBER GUSTS REACHING THE SURFACE REMAINS AS
THE COMPLEX PROGRESSES INTO SOUTHWEST MN AND EXTREME NORTHEAST IA.
..MOSIER.. 07/26/2023
...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
ATTN...WFO...GRB...MKX...ARX...
LAT...LON 44439160 44479061 44129008 43608991 42809050 43209175
43689234 44439160
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SPC MD 1718
MD 1718 CONCERNING SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 548... FOR CENTRAL/SOUTH-CENTRAL
MN
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1718
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0347 AM CDT WED JUL 26 2023
AREAS AFFECTED...CENTRAL/SOUTH-CENTRAL MN
CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 548...
VALID 260847Z - 261015Z
THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 548
CONTINUES.
SUMMARY...ISOLATED DAMAGING GUSTS AND/OR SEVERE HAIL WILL LIKELY
PERSIST FOR THE NEXT FEW HOURS. OVERALL SEVERE COVERAGE IS EXPECTED
TO REMAIN ISOLATED ENOUGH TO PRECLUDE A NEW WATCH.
DISCUSSION...SEVERAL ELEVATED THUNDERSTORMS HAD DEVELOPED OVER THE
PAST HOUR AND A HALF ACROSS WEST-CENTRAL MN, FOSTERED BY WARM-AIR
ADVECTION ATOP OUTFLOW FROM THE CONVECTIVE LINE NOW MOVING INTO
WEST-CENTRAL WI. THE COMBINATION OF MODERATE BUOYANCY AND STRONG
EFFECTIVE SHEAR HAS ALLOWED THESE STORMS TO MATURE INTO ELEVATED
SUPERCELLS, NOW STRONG ENOUGH TO PRODUCE ISOLATED SEVERE HAIL. THE
THREAT FOR ISOLATED SEVERE WILL LIKELY PERSIST FOR THE NEXT HOUR OR
TWO BEFORE INTERACTION WITH THE SOUTHWARD-PROGRESSING OUTFLOW
CURRENTLY NORTH OF THESE CELLS (IN THE OTTER TAIL, WADENA, AND CASS
COUNTY VICINITY). INTERACTION WITH THIS OUTFLOW COULD ALSO RESULT IN
OCCASIONAL DAMAGING GUSTS, ALTHOUGH LOW-LEVEL STABILITY WILL LIKELY
LIMIT THE OCCURRENCE OF SEVERE-CALIBER GUSTS. CURRENT EXPECTATION IS
THAT THE OVERALL SEVERE HAIL/WIND POTENTIAL SHOULD REMAIN ISOLATED
ENOUGH TO PRECLUDE WATCH ISSUANCE. EVEN SO, CONVECTIVE TRENDS WILL
BE MONITORED CLOSELY.
..MOSIER.. 07/26/2023
...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
ATTN...WFO...DLH...MPX...FGF...
LAT...LON 46869612 46679486 45199393 44269396 44459549 45579608
46869612
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SPC JUL 26, 2023 0600 UTC DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
SPC 1200Z DAY 1 OUTLOOK
DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0101 AM CDT WED JUL 26 2023
VALID 261200Z - 271200Z
...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF
THE GREAT LAKES...
...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF
THE CENTRAL PLAINS...
...SUMMARY...
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ASSOCIATED WITH WIND DAMAGE AND ISOLATED LARGE
HAIL WILL BE POSSIBLE TODAY IN PARTS OF THE SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES
REGION. A SEVERE THREAT IS ALSO EXPECTED IN PARTS OF THE CENTRAL
PLAINS.
...SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES...
A LARGE MID-LEVEL ANTICYCLONE WILL REMAIN ACROSS MUCH OF THE
SOUTHWESTERN AND SOUTH-CENTRAL U.S. TODAY. TO THE NORTHEAST OF THIS
FEATURE, A SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL MOVE EASTWARD ACROSS THE
NORTH-CENTRAL U.S. AHEAD OF THE SHORTWAVE, A COMPLEX OF
THUNDERSTORMS WILL LIKELY BE ONGOING AT THE START OF THE PERIOD OVER
THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. A MOIST AIRMASS WITH SURFACE DEWPOINTS
IN THE 70S F WILL BE IN PLACE ACROSS PARTS OF THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY EASTWARD INTO THE GREAT LAKES. AS SURFACE TEMPERATURES WARM,
STRONG INSTABILITY WILL LIKELY DEVELOP FROM NORTHERN ILLINOIS
EASTWARD INTO LOWER MICHIGAN. THE COMPLEX OF STORMS IS FORECAST TO
MOVE EAST-SOUTHEASTWARD INTO THE STRONGER INSTABILITY DURING THE
LATE MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON. A LINEAR MCS IS EXPECTED TO
DEVELOP AND MOVE THROUGH THE SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES REGION THIS
AFTERNOON.
A MID-LEVEL SPEED ENHANCEMENT, ASSOCIATED WITH THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH,
WILL MOVE EAST-SOUTHEASTWARD INTO THE GREAT LAKES THIS AFTERNOON.
THIS FEATURE WILL HELP TO CREATE MODERATE DEEP-LAYER SHEAR ACROSS
MUCH OF THE REGION, MAKING CONDITIONS FAVORABLE FOR SEVERE STORMS.
RAP FORECAST SOUNDINGS IN SOUTHWEST LOWER MICHIGAN AT 21Z HAVE
MLCAPE NEAR 3000 J/KG, 0-6KM SHEAR AROUND 35 KNOTS, AND 0-3 KM LAPSE
RATES APPROACHING 7 C/KM. THIS SHOULD BE FAVORABLE FOR WIND DAMAGE
ALONG THE LEADING EDGE OF THE CONVECTIVE COMPLEX. THE GREATEST
WIND-DAMAGE THREAT WILL BE ASSOCIATED WITH BOWING LINE SEGMENTS. IN
ADDITION, THE WIND PROFILE WILL SUPPORT SUPERCELL DEVELOPMENT WITH
STORMS THAT REMAIN DISCRETE. A LARGE-HAIL THREAT WILL BE POSSIBLE
WITH SUPERCELLS. ALSO, FORECAST SOUNDINGS HAVE 0-3 KM STORM-RELATIVE
HELICITY REACHING 250 TO 300 M2/S2 IN PARTS OF LOWER MICHIGAN BY
LATE AFTERNOON. THIS SUGGESTS THAT A TORNADO THREAT MAY DEVELOP. THE
MCS IS EXPECTED TO EVENTUALLY OUTRUN THE STRONGER INSTABILITY,
MAKING THE SEVERE THREAT MORE ISOLATED BY EARLY EVENING.
...CENTRAL AND NORTHERN PLAINS...
A MID-LEVEL ANTICYCLONE WILL REMAIN IN PLACE ACROSS THE DESERT
SOUTHWEST AND SOUTHERN PLAINS TODAY. A SHORTWAVE TROUGH TO THE NORTH
OF THE ANTICYCLONE WILL MOVE EASTWARD INTO THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS
THIS AFTERNOON. AT THE SURFACE, UPSLOPE FLOW IS FORECAST ACROSS
PARTS OF WESTERN KANSAS AND CENTRAL NEBRASKA, WHERE SURFACE
DEWPOINTS ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE 50S F. AS SURFACE TEMPERATURES
WARM AHEAD OF THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH, AN AXIS OF MODERATE INSTABILITY
IS FORECAST TO DEVELOP ACROSS FAR SOUTHERN NEBRASKA. THUNDERSTORMS
WILL LIKELY INITIATE ALONG THE WESTERN EDGE OF THE STRONGER
INSTABILITY, AND MOVE EASTWARD ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS THIS
AFTERNOON. RAP FORECAST SOUNDINGS ALONG THE INSTABILITY AXIS IN
SOUTH-CENTRAL NEBRASKA HAVE MLCAPE NEAR 2000 J/KG, 0-6 KM SHEAR
AROUND 40 KNOTS, AND LOW TO MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES NEAR 8.5 C/KM.
THIS ENVIRONMENT WILL BE FAVORABLE FOR DAMAGING WIND GUSTS
ASSOCIATED WITH HIGH-BASED SHORT MULTICELL LINE SEGMENTS. IN
ADDITION, HIGH-BASED SUPERCELLS WITH ISOLATED LARGE HAIL WILL ALSO
BE POSSIBLE.
FURTHER TO THE NORTH ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS, AN AXIS OF
INSTABILITY IS FORECAST TO DEVELOP AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT MOVING
THROUGH THE WESTERN DAKOTAS. ALONG THE INSTABILITY AXIS, MLCAPE IN
THE 500 TO 1000 J/KG COMBINED WITH MODERATE DEEP-LAYER SHEAR AND
STEEP LAPSE RATES MAY BE ENOUGH FOR A MARGINAL SEVERE THREAT IN THE
AFTERNOON.
..BROYLES/SQUITIERI.. 07/26/2023
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SPC JUL 26, 2023 0600 UTC DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
SPC 0600Z DAY 2 OUTLOOK
DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1253 AM CDT WED JUL 26 2023
VALID 271200Z - 281200Z
...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR THE NORTHEAST
INTO PARTS OF THE MID-ATLANTIC STATES...
...SUMMARY...
WIDELY SCATTERED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE FORECAST ACROSS SOUTHERN
NEW ENGLAND SOUTHWARD INTO PORTIONS OF THE MID-ATLANTIC STATES ON
THURSDAY. DAMAGING GUSTS AND THE RISK FOR A TORNADO WILL BE THE
PRIMARY HAZARDS.
...SYNOPSIS...
A FLATTENED MID-LEVEL ANTICYCLONE WILL BE CENTERED OVER NM AND
EXTEND ACROSS THE SOUTHERN STATES. TO ITS NORTH, A PROGRESSIVE
UPPER-AIR PATTERN WILL FEATURE A MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING
FROM THE LOWER GREAT LAKES TO OFFSHORE NEW ENGLAND BY LATE THURSDAY
EVENING. A MID-LEVEL SPEED MAX OVER THE MN BOUNDARY WATERS WILL
MOVE QUICKLY EAST INTO SOUTHERN QUEBEC DURING THE PERIOD. A COOL
FRONT/SURFACE TROUGH IS FORECAST TO SWEEP EAST THROUGH MUCH OF THE
NORTHEAST. A SURFACE LOW OVER WESTERN ONTARIO WILL DEVELOP EAST
WHILE A TRAILING COLD FRONT SETTLES SOUTHWARD INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST
AND BECOMES ORIENTED WEST TO EAST.
...NORTHEAST INTO THE MID-ATLANTIC STATES...
SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS WILL LIKELY BE ONGOING THURSDAY
MORNING ACROSS THE ADIRONDACKS NEAR THE TERMINUS OF A 50-KT
SOUTH-SOUTHWESTERLY LLJ. MOIST LOW LEVELS, FEATURING DEWPOINTS FROM
THE MID 60S OVER ME TO THE LOW-MID 70S OVER SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND AND
SOUTHWARD INTO THE DELMARVA, WILL DESTABILIZE AMIDST CLOUD BREAKS
AND STRONG HEATING. WEAK CAPPING WILL GENERALLY ERODE FROM NORTH TO
SOUTH BY MIDDAY INTO THE EARLY AFTERNOON, WITH SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS
STORM COVERAGE EXPECTED. APPRECIABLY STRONG LOW TO MID-LEVEL FLOW
FIELDS WILL AID IN STORM ORGANIZATION OVER THE SLIGHT RISK AREA, AND
A TORNADO OR TWO IS POSSIBLE ACROSS SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND. BOTH A
MIX OF LINEAR AND CELLULAR STORMS IS EXPECTED. A LARGER BAND OF
STORMS WILL CONSOLIDATE BY THE LATE AFTERNOON/EVENING AND PUSH EAST
OF THE NORTHEAST COAST BY MID EVENING. FARTHER SOUTH OVER VA,
WEAKER FLOW WILL LIMIT STORM ORGANIZATION BUT STEEP LOW-LEVEL LAPSE
RATES WILL FAVOR ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED DAMAGING GUSTS.
...WY INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST AND CENTRAL GREAT PLAINS...
A MORE SUBTLE, WEAKLY FORCED REGIME IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE UPPER
MIDWEST INTO THE CENTRAL GREAT PLAINS ON THURSDAY. AS A FRONT SAGS
SOUTHWARD INTO PARTS OF WI, MN, AND SD DURING THE DAY, MODEL
GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SHOW A MODERATELY TO STRONGLY UNSTABLE AIRMASS
OVER THE UPPER MIDWEST WITH LESSENING BUOYANCY FARTHER WEST INTO THE
HIGH PLAINS. THE SOUTHERN FRINGE OF STRONGER WESTERLY HIGH-LEVEL
FLOW AND STEEP LAPSE RATES WILL FAVOR VIGOROUS STORMS. UNCERTAINTY
REMAINS AS TO THE LOCATION OF A POTENTIAL CLUSTER OR TWO OF MORE
INTENSE STORMS THAT MAY DEVELOP NEAR/EAST OF THE MO RIVER (I.E.,
EASTERN HALF OF MARGINAL RISK AREA). IT SEEMS AT LEAST ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP NEAR THE BOUNDARY, AND THE STRONGER
STORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF A HAIL/WIND HAZARD. FARTHER SOUTHWEST
INTO THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS, LOWER STORM COVERAGE IS EXPECTED NEAR
A SURFACE TROUGH. SOME STRENGTHENING OF AN 850-MB LLJ IS DEPICTED
DURING THE EVENING INTO THE OVERNIGHT ACROSS KS INTO THE IA/NORTHERN
MO VICINITY. THIS MAY AID IN ADDITIONAL STORMS DEVELOPING LATE OR
PERHAPS SUSTAIN EVENING THUNDERSTORMS INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.
SOME HAIL/WIND RISK COULD ACCOMPANY THE STRONGER STORMS.
..SMITH.. 07/26/2023
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SPC JUL 26, 2023 0730 UTC DAY 3 SEVERE THUNDERSTORM OUTLOOK
SPC 0730Z DAY 3 OUTLOOK
DAY 3 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0232 AM CDT WED JUL 26 2023
VALID 281200Z - 291200Z
...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PORTIONS OF
THE MIDWEST...
...SUMMARY...
WIDELY SCATTERED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE ON THURSDAY AND
THURSDAY NIGHT ACROSS A LARGE PORTION OF THE MIDWEST.
...SYNOPSIS...
A FLATTENED MID-LEVEL ANTICYCLONE WILL CONTINUE TO BE CENTERED OVER
SOUTHERN STATES. A BELT OF MODERATELY STRONG WESTERLIES WILL EXTEND
FROM THE NORTHWESTERN CONUS EASTWARD ACROSS THE NORTH-CENTRAL U.S.
AND INTO THE NORTHEAST. A MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED
SPEED MAX WILL QUICKLY MOVE FROM NEAR LAKE SUPERIOR EAST TO THE ST.
LAWRENCE SEAWAY. WEST-NORTHWESTERLY MID-LEVEL FLOW WILL ENCOMPASS
THE AREA FROM THE GREAT LAKES WEST TO THE DAKOTAS EAST OF A RIDGE
OVER MT/WY.
...GREAT LAKES ACROSS THE MIDWEST AND BLACK HILLS...
A RESIDUAL WEST-EAST FRONTAL ZONE WILL BE DRAPED FROM NEAR THE BLACK
HILLS TO THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES IN WAKE OF A DEPARTING MID-LEVEL
DISTURBANCE MOVING EAST OVER SOUTHEAST CANADA. A CLUSTER OF
SHOWERS/STORMS MAY BE ONGOING FRIDAY MORNING NEAR A NOSE OF A
CENTRAL U.S. LLJ NEAR THE IA VICINITY. A VERY MOIST, CAPPED, AND
DESTABILIZING AIRMASS WILL BE LOCATED SOUTH OF THE FRONTAL ZONE
WHERE 70S DEWPOINTS WILL BE COMMON. CONSIDERABLE VARIABILITY IS
EVIDENT IN MODEL GUIDANCE AS TO THE FOCUSING MECHANISM FOR
THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT ON FRIDAY WITHIN A WEAKLY FORCED REGIME.
NONETHELESS, A RESERVOIR OF 2000-4000 J/KG MLCAPE WILL DEVELOP FROM
THE DAKOTAS INTO THE SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES DURING THE DAY. AN
INCREASE IN A WEST-SOUTHWESTERLY LLJ DURING THE EVENING INTO THE
OVERNIGHT ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST GREAT LAKES MAY AID IN EITHER STORM
DEVELOPMENT, SUSTENANCE, OR BOTH. HAVE OPTED TO INCLUDE A
CATEGORICAL SLIGHT RISK WHERE CONFIDENCE IS HIGHEST FOR A CLUSTER OF
THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP AND MOVE EAST-SOUTHEAST. SOME OF THIS
ACTIVITY MAY REACH THE LOWER GREAT LAKES LATE FRIDAY NIGHT INTO
EARLY SATURDAY MORNING.
...NORTHERN ROCKIES...
ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED DIURNAL THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE
FRIDAY IN ASSOCIATION WITH A WEAK MID-LEVEL DISTURBANCE FORECAST TO
MOVE FROM CA/NV INTO THE NORTHERN ROCKIES. STEEP LOW- TO MID-LEVEL
LAPSE RATES AND SUFFICIENT MID-LEVEL FLOW WILL AID IN SOME STORM
ORGANIZATION. ISOLATED SEVERE GUSTS AND PERHAPS MARGINALLY SEVERE
HAIL ARE POSSIBLE WITH THE STRONGER STORMS.
..SMITH.. 07/26/2023
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SPC JUL 26, 2023 DAY 4-8 SEVERE WEATHER OUTLOOK
DAY 4-8 OUTLOOK
DAY 4-8 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0322 AM CDT WED JUL 26 2023
VALID 291200Z - 031200Z
...DISCUSSION...
A MID-LEVEL HIGH WILL BE CENTERED OVER THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS
DURING THE EXTENDED PERIOD. MEDIUM-RANGE MODEL GUIDANCE STILL
VARIES CONSIDERABLY ON THE DEPICTION OF A MID-LEVEL DISTURBANCE
MOVING SOUTHEAST FROM THE UPPER MIDWEST INTO THE UPPER OH
VALLEY/LOWER GREAT LAKES ON SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY NIGHT. BY SUNDAY
AND INTO MID WEEK NEXT WEEK, A SERIES OF DISTURBANCES IS LIKELY TO
CREST A MID-LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE NORTHERN GREAT PLAINS AND MOVE
SOUTHEAST. SEVERE POTENTIAL MAY SHIFT INTO THE NORTHERN AND
NORTH-CENTRAL GREAT PLAINS DURING THE LATTER HALF OF THE EXTENDED
PERIOD.
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SPC DAY 1 FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK
SPC DAY 1 FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK
DAY 1 FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0107 AM CDT WED JUL 26 2023
VALID 261200Z - 271200Z
...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR EXTREME NORTHEAST CALIFORNIA...FAR
SOUTHEAST OREGON...FAR NORTHWEST NEVADA...
...SYNOPSIS...
A MID-LEVEL RIDGE WILL REMAIN IN PLACE ACROSS THE SOUTHWESTERN U.S.,
WITH MULTIPLE UPPER TROUGHS EXPECTED TO CREST THE RIDGE AND TRAVERSE
THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS TODAY. THE PASSAGE OF
THESE UPPER TROUGHS WILL SUPPORT STRONG WEST-SOUTHWESTERLY SURFACE
WINDS ACROSS NORTHERN MONTANA, AND FROM THE CALIFORNIA/NEVADA/OREGON
BORDER TO THE SNAKE RIVER PLAIN. BY AFTERNOON PEAK HEATING, RH
SHOULD DIP BELOW 15 PERCENT IN BOTH OF THESE AREAS, WARRANTING
ELEVATED HIGHLIGHTS. CRITICAL CONDITIONS HAVE ALSO BEEN MAINTAINED
FOR THE OREGON/CALIFORNIA/NEVADA BORDER, AS THE LATEST GUIDANCE
CONSENSUS SUGGESTS WINDS SHOULD SUSTAIN OVER 20 MPH AMID CRITICALLY
LOW RH FOR AT LEAST A FEW HOURS THIS AFTERNOON. OTHERWISE, MONSOONAL
MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THE MID-LEVEL RIDGE WILL ENCOURAGE
THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT BY AFTERNOON ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE
INTERMOUNTAIN WEST. LOCALIZED WILDFIRE-SPREAD POTENTIAL EXISTS
WHEREVER LIGHTNING MAY STRIKE DRY FUEL BEDS.
..SQUITIERI.. 07/26/2023
...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV/FIRE FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
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SPC DAY 2 FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK
SPC DAY 2 FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK
DAY 2 FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0107 AM CDT WED JUL 26 2023
VALID 271200Z - 281200Z
...SYNOPSIS...
STRONG MID-LEVEL FLOW WILL TRAVERSE THE PERIPHERY OF A STATIONARY
UPPER RIDGE (CENTERED OVER THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES) AND WILL OVERSPREAD
THE NORTHERN GREAT BASIN TOMORROW/THURSDAY. BY AFTERNOON PEAK
HEATING, DOWNSLOPE FLOW ALONG THE HIGHER TERRAIN WILL SUPPORT 15-20
MPH SUSTAINED WESTERLY SURFACE WINDS FROM THE CALIFORNIA/NEVADA
BORDER INTO THE SNAKE RIVER PLAIN. COINCIDING THESE BREEZY SURFACE
CONDITIONS WILL BE 10-15 PERCENT RH, WARRANTING THE INTRODUCTION OF
ELEVATED HIGHLIGHTS. MONSOONAL MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER
RIDGE WILL SUPPORT ANOTHER DAY OF SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE
ROCKIES. ANY STRIKES THAT CAN OCCUR IN PATCHY DRY FUEL BEDS WILL
SUPPORT A LOCALIZED WILDFIRE-SPREAD THREAT.
..SQUITIERI.. 07/26/2023
...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV/FIRE FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
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HYPERTEXT PREPROCESSOR - DEVELOPED BY LU9DCE - VERSION 3
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